The Scientific Community Positions on Climate Change and Global Warming *

2016 ◽  
pp. 337-350
Author(s):  
Gregory T. Haugan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Scientific Community

scholarly journals Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael F. Wehner ◽  
Kevin A. Reed ◽  
Burlen Loring ◽  
Dáithí Stone ◽  
Harinarayan Krishnan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Scientific Community ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Tropical Storms ◽  
Aerosol Forcing

Abstract. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world where anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above preindustrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C stabilized warming scenarios by direct numerical simulation using a high resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones becomes more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical storms is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5 °C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.

scholarly journals CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI: EVIDENZE SCIENTIFICHE, RISCHI ED OPPORTUNITÀ DI MITIGAZIONE

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Filippo Giorgi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Scientific Community ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Agricultural Practices ◽  
Climatic Changes ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Main Model

This contribution presents the various pieces of evidence which bring the scientific community to conclude that global warming is happening and it is mostly due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, mainly carbon dioxide and methane, deriving from the use of fossil fuels and some intensive agricultural practices. The main climatic changes associated with global warming are then discussed, along with the main model-derived future climate scenarios and the impacts that climate change can have on different socioeconomic sectors. Finally, the response policies to global warming are described, and in particular the concepts of adaptation and mitigaziotn (reduction of greenhouse gas emissions).

2. History of climate change

2021 ◽  
pp. 12-25
Author(s):  
Mark Maslin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Social Movement ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Scientific Community ◽  
New Wave ◽  
Global Environmental ◽  
History Of ◽  
Environmental Social Movement

‘History of climate change’ traces the history of climate change and the evidence that supports it. The science of climate change started in 1856 with experiments by Eunice Newton Foote demonstrating the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide. The essential science of climate change was there in the late 1950s, but it was not taken seriously until the late 1980s. Why was there a delay between the science of global warming being accepted in the late 1950s and the realization by those outside the scientific community of the true threat of global warming at the beginning of the 21st century? The key reasons for this delay were the lack of increase in global temperatures and the lack of global environmental awareness. What is the importance of the rise of the global environmental social movement and the new wave of protest and optimism of the last few years?

scholarly journals Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 187-195 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael F. Wehner ◽  
Kevin A. Reed ◽  
Burlen Loring ◽  
Dáithí Stone ◽  
Harinarayan Krishnan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Scientific Community ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Tropical Storms ◽  
Aerosol Forcing

Abstract. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above preindustrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0 °C stabilized warming scenarios with direct numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical storms is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5 °C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.

scholarly journals Anthropocene: To Be or not to be?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
José Gomes dos Santos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Scientific Community ◽  
Formal Definition ◽  
Official Position ◽  
Scientific Competence ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Formal Establishment ◽  
Geological Period

The growing interest related to the proposal of formal definition of a new geological period that has being called “Anthropocene” has introduced a buzzing dynamics in the scientific community, but its conduct is perhaps due to various interests involved in a discussion that has long surpassed the contours of the so-called “Geosciences”. Themes such as “Climate Change or Drift”, “Global Warming”, “Massive Extinction of Species” and “Loss of bio and geodiversity”, among others, are the wheel of a geomorphogenetic dynamics of anthropocentric origin, which leads the debate. But are the conditions for the formal establishment of a new morphosedimentary cycle following the Meghalayanian (Upper Holocene) Age? This work pursues a line of thought that seeks to answer these and other questions, based on the official position of the institutes that have the scientific competence for the formalization under consideration, and the formal criteria that should be considered for this purpose.

scholarly journals Discussing Anthropogenic Global Warming from an Econometric Perspective: A Change in Forecasting Based on the ARIMA Paleoclimate Time Series Model

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gilmar Veriato Fluzer Santos ◽  
Lucas Gamalel Cordeiro ◽  
Claudio Antonio Rojo ◽  
Edison Luiz Leismann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Scientific Community ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Autoregressive Process ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Model Parameters

Abstract Global warming has divided the scientific community worldwide with predominance for anthropogenic alarmism. This article aims to project a climate change scenario using a stochastic model of paleotemperature time series and compare it with the dominant thesis. The ARIMA model – an integrated autoregressive process of moving averages, known as Box-Jenkins - was used for this purpose. The results showed that the estimates of the model parameters were below 1°C for a scenario of 100 years which suggests a period of temperature reduction and a probable cooling, contrary to the prediction of the IPCC and the anthropogenic current of an increase in 1.50° C to 2.0° C by the end of this century. Thus, we hope with this study to contribute to the discussion by adding a statistical element of paleoclimate in counterpoint to the current consensus and to placing the debate in a long-term historical dimension, in line with other research present in climate sciences and statistics.

scholarly journals Análisis y comparación de las metodologías de calculo de gases de efecto invernadero en el contexto urbano.

2020 ◽  
pp. 45
Author(s):  
Carlos Alfredo Rivas Cobo ◽  
Emilio José Jarre Castro ◽  
Christian Antequera Zamudio
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Greenhouse Effect ◽  
Scientific Community ◽  
Urban Context ◽  
Municipal Governments ◽  
Palabras Clave ◽  
National Governments

Analysis and comparison of greenhouse gas calculation methodologies in the urban context Últimamente los esfuerzos para disminuir el efecto invernadero antrópico se están redoblando por parte de las administraciones, el calentamiento global es un hecho demostrado por la comunidad científica. Los gobiernos nacionales se han comprometido a disminuir sus emisiones. A esta lucha por parte de los gobiernos nacionales se han unido los gobiernos municipales, ya que las ciudades serán una de las principales damnificadas por el cambio climático y uno de los máximos focos de emisión. Se analizan las principales metodologías de cálculo y sus diferencias para calcular los gases de efecto invernadero (GEI) producidos en el contexto urbano Palabras clave: Cambio Climático; Calculo Urbano; Efecto invernadero. Abstract Lately, efforts to reduce the anthropogenic greenhouse effect are being redoubled by administrations, global warming is a fact demonstrated by the scientific community. National governments have committed to reduce their emissions. The municipal governments have joined this fight that national governments are part of, since the cities will be one of the main victims of climate change and one of the main sources of emissions. The main calculation methodologies and their differences to calculate the greenhouse gases (GHG) produced in the urban context are analyzed. Keywords: Climate Change; Greenhouse effect; Urban Calculus.

Modelling ecosystem adaptation and dangerous rates of global warming

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 221-231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca Millington ◽  
Peter M. Cox ◽  
Jonathan R. Moore ◽  
Gabriel Yvon-Durocher
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Diffusion Rate ◽  
Individual Species ◽  
Genetic Evolution ◽  
Rates Of Change ◽  
Rapid Climate Change ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Intraspecies Competition ◽  
High Trait

Abstract We are in a period of relatively rapid climate change. This poses challenges for individual species and threatens the ecosystem services that humanity relies upon. Temperature is a key stressor. In a warming climate, individual organisms may be able to shift their thermal optima through phenotypic plasticity. However, such plasticity is unlikely to be sufficient over the coming centuries. Resilience to warming will also depend on how fast the distribution of traits that define a species can adapt through other methods, in particular through redistribution of the abundance of variants within the population and through genetic evolution. In this paper, we use a simple theoretical ‘trait diffusion’ model to explore how the resilience of a given species to climate change depends on the initial trait diversity (biodiversity), the trait diffusion rate (mutation rate), and the lifetime of the organism. We estimate theoretical dangerous rates of continuous global warming that would exceed the ability of a species to adapt through trait diffusion, and therefore lead to a collapse in the overall productivity of the species. As the rate of adaptation through intraspecies competition and genetic evolution decreases with species lifetime, we find critical rates of change that also depend fundamentally on lifetime. Dangerous rates of warming vary from 1°C per lifetime (at low trait diffusion rate) to 8°C per lifetime (at high trait diffusion rate). We conclude that rapid climate change is liable to favour short-lived organisms (e.g. microbes) rather than longer-lived organisms (e.g. trees).

Political Preferences, Personality Traits, and Environmentalism

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alistair Soutter ◽  
René Mõttus
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Personality Traits ◽  
Public Discourse ◽  
Environmental Attitudes ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Political Orientation ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Political Preferences ◽  
Party Voting

Although the scientific evidence of anthropogenic climate change continues to grow, public discourse still reflects a high level of scepticism and political polarisation towards anthropogenic climate change. In this study (N = 499) we attempted to replicate and expand upon an earlier finding that environmental terminology (“climate change” versus “global warming”) could partly explain political polarisation in environmental scepticism (Schuldt, Konrath, & Schwarz, 2011). Participants completed a series of online questionnaires assessing personality traits, political preferences, belief in environmental phenomenon, and various pro-environmental attitudes and behaviours. Those with a Conservative political orientation and/or party voting believed less in both climate change and global warming compared to those with a Liberal orientation and/or party voting. Furthermore, there was an interaction between continuously measured political orientation, but not party voting, and question wording on beliefs in environmental phenomena. Personality traits did not confound these effects. Furthermore, continuously measured political orientation was associated with pro-environmental attitudes, after controlling for personality traits, age, gender, area lived in, income, and education. The personality domains of Openness, and Conscientiousness, were consistently associated with pro-environmental attitudes and behaviours, whereas Agreeableness was associated with pro-environmental attitudes but not with behaviours. This study highlights the importance of examining personality traits and political preferences together and suggests ways in which policy interventions can best be optimised to account for these individual differences.

Graubündens Wald im Fokus | Focus on the Grisons forest

2009 ◽  
Vol 160 (7) ◽  
pp. 195-200
Author(s):  
Reto Hefti
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Positive Attitude ◽  
Production Costs ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Intensive Use ◽  
Form Part ◽  
New Challenges ◽  
The Government

In the mountainous canton Grisons, much visited by tourists, the forest has always had an important role to play. New challenges are now presenting themselves. The article goes more closely into two themes on the Grisons forestry agenda dominating in the next few years: the increased use of timber and climate change. With the increased demand for logs and the new sawmill in Domat/Ems new opportunities are offered to the canton for more intensive use of the raw material, wood. This depends on a reduction in production costs and a positive attitude of the population towards the greater use of wood. A series of measures from the Grisons Forestry Department should be of help here. The risk of damage to infrastructure is particularly high in a mountainous canton. The cantonal government of the Grisons has commissioned the Forestry Department to define the situation concerning the possible consequences of global warming on natural hazards and to propose measures which may be taken. The setting up of extensive measurement and information systems, the elaboration of intervention maps, the estimation of the danger potential in exposed areas outside the building zone and the maintenance of existing protective constructions through the creation of a protective constructions register, all form part of the government programme for 2009 to 2012. In the Grisons, forest owners and visitors will have to become accustomed to the fact that their forests must again produce more wood and that, on account of global warming, protective forests will become even more important than they already are today.

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