scholarly journals Prediction Markets

2004 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 107-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justin Wolfers ◽  
Eric Zitzewitz
Keyword(s):  
Market Design ◽  
Regression Coefficients ◽  
Prediction Markets ◽  
Design Issues ◽  
Future Events ◽  
Uncertain Future ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Usual Problem

We analyze the extent to which simple markets can be used to aggregate disperse information into efficient forecasts of uncertain future events. Drawing together data from a range of prediction contexts, we show that market-generated forecasts are typically fairly accurate, and that they outperform most moderately sophisticated benchmarks. Carefully designed contracts can yield insight into the market's expectations about probabilities, means and medians, and also uncertainty about these parameters. Moreover, conditional markets can effectively reveal the market's beliefs about regression coefficients, although we still have the usual problem of disentangling correlation from causation. We discuss a number of market design issues and highlight domains in which prediction markets are most likely to be useful.

Ideas Markets: A Literature Review and Classification Scheme

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 76-88
Author(s):  
Eoin McDonagh ◽  
Patrick Buckley
Keyword(s):  
Literature Review ◽  
Current Literature ◽  
Classification Scheme ◽  
Information Aggregation ◽  
Prediction Markets ◽  
Market Mechanisms ◽  
Current Trends ◽  
New Ideas ◽  
Future Events ◽  
Uncertain Future

Prediction markets have been positioned in the literature as efficient and scalable information aggregation mechanisms. The increasing interest in the use of market mechanisms to enable decision making has led to attempts to use these mechanisms to stimulate innovation in a number of organisational contexts. These tools, usually referred to as Ideas Markets are seen as a potentially powerful method of sourcing and evaluating new ideas. Whereas traditional Prediction Markets allow participants to trade on the outcome of uncertain future events, Ideas Markets’ provide a platform for the generation and evaluation of ideas through the trading of virtual stocks representing products and concepts.  In this paper, we study the evolution of research on Idea Markets though a comprehensive literature review. We develop a classification scheme, which enables thorough analysis of current trends within Ideas Markets research. Our results show that case studies detailing corporate applications of Ideas Markets dominate the current literature. The paper contributes by providing a comprehensive guide to the extant literature on Ideas Markets. This serves a number of purposes, including providing practitioners and academics with a convenient bibliography of the current literature. The issues highlighted by this literature review also serve to both motivate and enable further research.

Communication and Sign Stealing in Baseball: Pitcher-Catcher “Hot-Key” Sign Indicator Obfuscation via Situational Game Data

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 281-289
Author(s):  
Jeffrey N. Howard
Keyword(s):  
Communication System ◽  
Current Paper ◽  
Valuable Insight ◽  
Indicator Values ◽  
Baseball Pitcher ◽  
Future Events ◽  
Insight Into

The game of baseball and its internal cryptic communication system has always been vulnerable to sign stealing. By systematically studying the signals of an opponent so as to decrypt and intercept opponent communications, one can garner valuable insight into future events and strategies. Such “theft of signals” can lead teams to frequently change their sign indicator, should they suspect it has been compromised. The current paper presents a theoretical process of “hot” sign indicator obfuscation whereby the pitcher and catcher use unique hot indicator values that are generated after each pitch via an algorithm derived from randomly changing situational and/or scoreboard data.

Ergonomic Design Issues in Icons Used in Digital Cameras in India

2013 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 51-62
Author(s):  
Prabir Mukhopadhyay
Keyword(s):  
Second Phase ◽  
Digital Cameras ◽  
Design Issues ◽  
Ergonomic Design ◽  
Open Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
Comprehension Test ◽  
Automatic Mode ◽  
Third Phase ◽  
Insight Into

This paper investigates the usability of five commonly used icons in digital cameras like landscape, video, night portrait and automatic mode. In the first phase a set of 10 open type questionnaires were applied on 110 students (75 male and 35 female) to get an insight into the type of problems with the icons. The second phase comprised of 5 ranking questionnaire. The third phase comprised of icon comprehension test for getting to know the stereotype strength of the different icons. The fourth phase was stereotypy test. The second and third phases were applied on 32 students (16 male and 16 females.). For each category of icons there was one icon which was rated best and comprehended very well. For example the icon for landscape mode which represented a mountain was ranked as the best and the stereotype strength for the same was 90.6%.

scholarly journals Optimal Design of a Forest-Based Biomass Supply Chain Based on the Decision maker’s Viewpoint Towards Risk

2019 ◽  
Vol 66 (4) ◽  
pp. 509-519 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shaghaygh Akhtari ◽  
Taraneh Sowlati ◽  
Verena C Griess
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Biomass Supply ◽  
Management Literature ◽  
Future Events ◽  
Uncertain Future ◽  
Biomass Availability

Abstract Economic viability is one of the main considerations in bioenergy and biofuel projects and is impacted by uncertainty in biomass availability, cost, and quality, and bioenergy and biofuel demand and prices. One important aspect of decisionmaking under uncertainty is the viewpoint of the decision maker towards risk, which is overlooked in the biomass supply chain management literature. In this paper, we address this gap by evaluating alternative supply chain designs taking into account uncertain future conditions resulting from changes in biomass availability and cost, and bioproduct and energy prices. Three decision rules, maximax, minimax regret, and maximin, representing, respectively, optimistic, opportunistic, and pessimistic perspectives, are used for evaluation. It is assumed that the decision maker has knowledge about the potential future events, but the likelihood of their occurrence is unknown. According to the results of the case study, investment in bioenergy and biofuel conversion facilities was recommended based on optimistic and opportunistic viewpoints. Production of both bienergy and biofuels would not be profitable under pessimistic conditions. Therefore, investment in only bienergy facilities was prescribed under pessimistic conditions.

The European Court of Human Rights as Governor of Risk

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mónika Ambrus
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
European Court ◽  
Future Events ◽  
Uncertain Future ◽  
Ultimate Purpose

This chapter analyses the ‘risk dispositief’ of the European Court of Human Rights and explores the ways in which the Court governs risk. It begins with an exploration of the specific features of governing uncertain future events that are adopted by the Court, including the identification of the forms of risk that the Court incorporates in its mode of governance and the manner in which it allocates responsibility for these risks. It then examines the manner in which the Court’s risk dispositief creates new subjectivities and redefine relationships. The Foucauldian concept of governmentality provides the theoretical framework for exploring the Court’s risk dispositief, and provides a tool for analyzing the Court’s techniques of risk governmentality. The ultimate purpose of this enquiry is to ascertain how the Court addresses risk-related complaints and how it conceptualises risk in different contexts.

An Application of HHI to Study Electricity Market Design Issues

ENERGYO ◽  
2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tirapot Chandarasupsang ◽  
Tomek Siewierski ◽  
Stuart Galloway ◽  
Graeme Burt ◽  
Jim Mcdonald
Keyword(s):  
Electricity Market ◽  
Market Design ◽  
Design Issues

scholarly journals Adaptation in an Uncertain World—Detection and Attribution of Climate Change Trends and Extreme Possibilities

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiyue Li ◽  
Gary Yohe
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Affirmative Answer ◽  
Anthropogenic Sources ◽  
Data Series ◽  
High Confidence ◽  
Simulation Exercise ◽  
Detection And Attribution ◽  
Uncertain Future ◽  
Insight Into

This chapter offers results from an artificial simulation exercise that was designed to answer three fundamental questions that lie at the heart of anticipatory adaptation. First, how can confidence in projected vulnerabilities and impacts be greater than the confidence in attributing what has heretofore been observed? Second, are there characteristics of recent historical data series that do or do not portend our achieving high confidence in attribution to climate change in support of framing adaptation decisions in an uncertain future? And finally, what can analysis of confidence in attribution tell us about ranges of “not-implausible” extreme futures vis-à-vis projections based at least implicitly on an assumption that the climate system is static? An extension of the IPCC method of assessing our confidence in attribution to anthropogenic sources of detected warming presents an answer to the first question. It is also possible to identify characteristics that support an affirmative answer to the second. Finally, this chapter offer some insight into the significance of our attribution methodology in informing attempts to frame considerations of potential extremes and how to respond.

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