Myopia and Anchoring

2021 ◽  
Vol 111 (4) ◽  
pp. 1166-1200
Author(s):  
George-Marios Angeletos ◽  
Zhen Huo
Keyword(s):  
Incomplete Information ◽  
Adjustment Costs ◽  
Higher Order ◽  
Habit Persistence ◽  
Past Behavior ◽  
The Future ◽  
Current Behavior

We develop an equivalence between the equilibrium effects of incomplete information and those of two behavioral distortions: myopia, or extra discounting of the future; and anchoring of current behavior to past behavior, as in models with habit persistence or adjustment costs. We show how these distortions depend on higher-order beliefs and GE mechanisms, and how they can be disciplined by evidence on expectations. We finally illustrate the use of our toolbox with a quantitative application in the context of inflation, a bridge to the HANK literature, and an extension to networks. (JEL C53, D83, D85, E12, E31, E37)

Teaching the Future of Technology in the History Classroom: A Case Study

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 253-262 ◽  
Author(s):  
David J. Staley
Keyword(s):  
Incomplete Information ◽  
The State ◽  
Historical Inquiry ◽  
Social Scientists ◽  
Traditional Methods ◽  
Research Seminar ◽  
Historical Method ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Right

This article will describe how historians can teach the future of technology. Historians need not alter their traditional methods of historical inquiry to teach the future, and indeed the history classroom is a natural site for foresight education. Historical inquiry begins with questions, and futuring similarly begins with asking the right questions. The historian seeks out evidence, and futurists as well identify drivers and blockers, considering how these drivers and blockers will interact with each other. In contrast to social scientists, historians work with imperfect or incomplete information, an apt description of the state of our evidence about the future. In a manner similar to historians, futurists interpret and draw inferences from evidence. After the research an analysis of the evidence is complete, the historian/futurist writes representations. This article will describe how I employed the historical method to teach the future of technology in a history research seminar, the results produced by the students, and ways that the study of the future can be situated in the history classroom.

Improved HOM-mitigation for future SPS 33-Cell 200 MHz traveling-wave accelerating structures

2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (36) ◽  
pp. 1942018
Author(s):  
P. Kramer ◽  
C. Vollinger
Keyword(s):  
Traveling Wave ◽  
Higher Order ◽  
High Luminosity ◽  
Basic Principles ◽  
Higher Order Modes ◽  
Cell Structures ◽  
The Future ◽  
Em Field

The CERN SPS 200 MHz traveling-wave (TW) accelerating structures pose an intensity limitation for the planned High Luminosity (HL-) LHC upgrade. Higher-order modes (HOMs) around 630 MHz have been identified as one of the main sources of longitudinal multi-bunch instabilities. Improved mitigation of these HOMs with respect to today’s HOM-damping scheme is therefore an essential part of the LHC injectors upgrade (LIU) project. The basic principles of HOM-couplers in cavities and today’s damping scheme are reviewed. Before illustrating the numerous requirements, an improved damping scheme for the future 33-cell structures must be fulfilled. These are, among others, the mitigation of HOMs situated in the lower part of the structure where there are no access ports for extraction, a sufficient overall damping performance and an acceptable influence on the fundamental accelerating passband (FPB). Different approaches tackling these challenges are investigated and their performance, advantages and pitfalls are evaluated by ACE3P and CST electromagnetic (EM) field solver suites.

NOMINAL RIGIDITIES, RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT, AND ADJUSTMENT COSTS

2009 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 136-148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles T. Carlstrom ◽  
Timothy S. Fuerst
Keyword(s):  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
Durable Goods ◽  
Adjustment Costs ◽  
American Economic Review ◽  
Housing Construction ◽  
Residential Housing ◽  
Habit Persistence ◽  
Residential Investment

Evidence suggests that durable goods and residential housing are more flexibly priced than nondurables and services. Using a standard sticky price general equilibrium model, Barsky, House, and Kimball [American Economic Review 97(3) (2007), 984–998] demonstrate that if durable goods are flexibly priced and nondurables are sticky, then a monetary contraction leads to an expansion in production in the durable sector. This is wildly at odds with the empirical evidence. This paper demonstrates that if three features are added to the model (sticky nominal wages, housing construction adjustment costs, and habit persistence in consumption), it delivers sectoral implications that are broadly consistent with the data.

Theology and the Transformation of Society

1968 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-36
Author(s):  
Richard Shaull
Keyword(s):  
Human Life ◽  
Higher Order ◽  
Social Consequences ◽  
Reinhold Niebuhr ◽  
The Road ◽  
The Future ◽  
Transcendent Reality ◽  
Ontological Categories ◽  
On The Road ◽  
The Way

“At a time when neo-orthodox theology was dominant, [Reinhold] Niebuhr was able to use effectively, with far-reaching social consequences, the metaphysical-ontological categories of transcendence. Today it is important to recognize not only that these concepts have little meaning for another generation, but also that the biblical symbols point us in a different direction. The transcendent reality described in the biblical myths and images is not so much the God who stands above all human attainments, judging them and raising man to a higher order, but the God who goes ahead of us, opening the way for greater fulfillment on the road to the future. He is one whose actions in the totality of man's hisotyr lead to new events that open new possibilities. Thus the basic Christian symbols suggest that human life is free because it is lived, in history, in the context of ‘gracious’ sovereignty.”

scholarly journals Education, work participation and income in Agriculture Industri In Indonesia

SPLASH Magz ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 80-85
Author(s):  
Benjamin Drean ◽  
◽  
Bambang Hadi Prabowo ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Resources ◽  
Agricultural Education ◽  
Work Participation ◽  
Driving Factor ◽  
Threshold Autoregressive ◽  
Past Behavior ◽  
The Future ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Aggregate Income

This study examines the relationship of agricultural education in encouraging work participation in agriculture which in turn can increase the aggregate income of people who work in agriculture as indicated by an increase in Employment Income in Agriculture in Indonesia. To achieve this goal, the Quantitative Threshold Autoregressive method is used to predict the behavior of the data so that the behavior of the relationship between the data can be seen and can be seen the growth of community income and work participation in agriculture with education as the driving factor. The hope is that knowing past behavior data can be an indicator of decisions that can be taken in the future. We found that Education in agriculture is an effort to increase human resources in agriculture. Agriculture with a lot of potentials needs to be empowered and developed. Where agriculture can absorb labor and improve welfare in Indonesia.

scholarly journals Promoting Higher Order Thinking Skills in Literature Class via Critical Thinking Module (CTM)

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Norhezan Che Teh ◽  
Nor Hashimah Isa ◽  
Ainon Omar
Keyword(s):  
Critical Thinking ◽  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
Higher Order Thinking ◽  
Thinking Skills ◽  
Higher Order ◽  
Case Study Method ◽  
Student Centered ◽  
The Future ◽  
Literature Class

Advancement in the innovation world, robotics and artificial intelligence as well as heavily globally-connected world among others has led to the impetus of Industrial Revolution (IR 4.0). Hence, work opportunities that exist today might not be available in the future as there is a huge possibility that they might be taken over by machines. This could result in job scarcity. Therefore, the challenge now is to prepare our students with the necessary skills to stay relevant and needed in the job market of the future. The ability to think on the higher level is amplified with IR 4.0. So, it is only wise to teach, train and prepare the students with this skill now. This paper shares the findings of a larger study on how the Critical Thinking Module  (CTM) is able to assist higher order thinking (HOTs) among the students in Literature Classes. This research employs case study method and the subjects were selected using purposive sampling. The CTM focuses on the students’ ability to analyse, synthesise and evaluate. The activities included in CTM are everyday activities that will be able to be carried out in an hour and ten minutes period.  All of the activities are student-centered and highlight on the importance of group work whereby discussion, collaboration and cooperation are vital. Data were gathered through test scripts and class observation. The participants were 9 students from a cluster school in Ipoh. They were observed for 18 weeks and the result of the study revealed that the students were better at HOTs verbally compared to written. The case study suggests the CTM is capable of aiding the students to think on the higher level.

Incomplete Information, Expectation, and Subsequent Decisionmaking

1983 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 123-130 ◽  
Author(s):  
A de Palma
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Incomplete Information ◽  
Future Development ◽  
Simple Mathematical Model ◽  
Unequal Distribution ◽  
Sources Of Uncertainty ◽  
Expectation Model ◽  
The Future ◽  
Freedom Of Action

Attention is drawn to situations in which the behaviour of individuals in a society does not result from well-known given laws or rules, but from the decisions and expectations of each individual. From this perspective, an unequal distribution of information will allow each individual to cope with his own sources of uncertainty which determine his freedom of action. Each individual will act according to the perception of a situation and his expectation of the future development of that situation. At the same time, each individual is informed by the decisions of other individuals: this may change the level of information about the situation and the expectation model used. By means of a simple mathematical model a simplified case will be described in which two individuals have to take a decision which will be a function of each individual's expectation. Some unexpected results will be presented and commented upon.

The Remote Perception Problem

2002 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 260-264 ◽  
Author(s):  
James S. Tittle ◽  
Axel Roesler ◽  
David D. Woods
Keyword(s):  
Natural Environment ◽  
Higher Order ◽  
Spatial Awareness ◽  
Vision Systems ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
Remote Perception

Previous research (e.g., Casper, 2002; Darken, Kempster, & Peterson, 2001) has shown that observers demonstrate poor spatial awareness based on video provided from remote environments. Such a result is understandable given that remote vision systems provide impoverished representations that leave out higher order cues essential to build coherent percepts and models of the world being explored. If tele-presence or remote vision is to be useful in the future, the raw video needs to somehow be augmented to recover what was lost by decoupling the human perceptual processor from the natural environment.

Multiple Contributions of an Input-Representing Neuron to the Dynamics of the Aplysia Feeding Network

2007 ◽  
Vol 97 (4) ◽  
pp. 3046-3056 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex Proekt ◽  
Jian Jing ◽  
Klaudiusz R. Weiss
Keyword(s):  
Central Pattern Generator ◽  
Motor Program ◽  
Pattern Generator ◽  
Higher Order ◽  
Motor Output ◽  
Slow Dynamics ◽  
Motor Programs ◽  
The Future

In Aplysia, mutually antagonistic ingestive and egestive behaviors are produced by the same multifunctional central pattern generator (CPG) circuit. Interestingly, higher-order inputs that activate the CPG do not directly specify whether the resulting motor program is ingestive or egestive because the slow dynamics of the network intervene. One input, the commandlike cerebral–buccal interneuron 2 (CBI-2), slowly drives the motor output toward ingestion, whereas another input, the esophageal nerve (EN), drives the motor output toward egestion. When the input is switched from EN to CBI-2, the motor output does not switch immediately and remains egestive. Here, we investigated how these slow dynamics are implemented on the interneuronal level. We found that activity of two CPG interneurons, B20 and B40, tracked the motor output regardless of the input, whereas activity of another CPG interneuron, B65, tracked the input regardless of the motor output. Furthermore, we show that the slow dynamics of the network are implemented, at least in part, in the slow dynamics of the interaction between the input-representing and the output-representing neurons. We conclude that 1) a population of CPG interneurons, recruited during a particular motor program, simultaneously encodes both the input that is used to elicit the motor program and the output elicited by this input; and 2) activity of the input-representing neurons may serve to bias the future motor programs.

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