scholarly journals Heterogeneous Scarring Effects of Full-Year Nonemployment

2017 ◽  
Vol 107 (5) ◽  
pp. 369-373 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatih Guvenen ◽  
Fatih Karahan ◽  
Serdar Ozkan ◽  
Jae Song
Keyword(s):  
Social Security ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Social Security Administration ◽  
Earnings Distribution ◽  
Employment Effects ◽  
Long Period ◽  
Earnings Losses ◽  
The Social ◽  
Scarring Effects

Drawing on administrative data from the Social Security Administration, we find that individuals that go through a long period of non-employment suffer large and long-term earnings losses (around 35-40 percent) compared to individuals with similar age and previous earnings histories. Importantly, these differences depend on past earnings, and are largest at the bottom and top of the earnings distribution. Focusing on workers that are employed 10 years after a period of long-term non-employment, we find much smaller earnings losses (8-10 percent). Furthermore, the large earnings losses of low-income individuals are almost entirely due to employment effects.

scholarly journals Systematic Bias and Nontransparency in US Social Security Administration Forecasts

2015 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 239-258 ◽  
Author(s):  
Konstantin Kashin ◽  
Gary King ◽  
Samir Soneji
Keyword(s):  
Social Security ◽  
Best Practices ◽  
Systematic Bias ◽  
Social Security Administration ◽  
Trust Funds ◽  
The Social ◽  
Forecasting Errors ◽  
Policy Proposals ◽  
Made In

We offer an evaluation of the Social Security Administration demographic and financial forecasts used to assess the long-term solvency of the Social Security Trust Funds. This same forecasting methodology is also used in evaluating policy proposals put forward by Congress to modify the Social Security program. Ours is the first evaluation to compare the SSA forecasts with observed truth; for example, we compare forecasts made in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s with outcomes that are now available. We find that Social Security Administration forecasting errors—as evaluated by how accurate the forecasts turned out to be—were approximately unbiased until 2000 and then became systematically biased afterward, and increasingly so over time. Also, most of the forecasting errors since 2000 are in the same direction, consistently misleading users of the forecasts to conclude that the Social Security Trust Funds are in better financial shape than turns out to be the case. Finally, the Social Security Administration's informal uncertainty intervals appear to have become increasingly inaccurate since 2000. At present, the Office of the Chief Actuary, at the Social Security Administration, does not reveal in full how its forecasts are made. Every future Trustees Report, without exception, should include a routine evaluation of all prior forecasts, and a discussion of what forecasting mistakes were made, what was learned from the mistakes, and what actions might be taken to improve forecasts going forward. And the Social Security Administration and its Office of the Chief Actuary should follow best practices in academia and many other parts of government and make their forecasting procedures public and replicable, and should calculate and report calibrated uncertainty intervals for all forecasts.

scholarly journals How Risky Are Recessions for Top Earners?

2014 ◽  
Vol 104 (5) ◽  
pp. 148-153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatih Guvenen ◽  
Greg Kaplan ◽  
Jae Song
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Social Security ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Social Security Administration ◽  
Earnings Distribution ◽  
Population Average ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Average Worker

How sensitive to business cycles are the earnings of top earners? And, how does the business cycle sensitivity of top earners vary by industry? We use a confidential dataset on earnings histories of US males from the Social Security Administration. On average, individuals in the top 1 percent of the earnings distribution are slightly more cyclical than the population average. But there are large differences across sectors; top earners in Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate (FIRE) and Construction face substantial business cycle volatility, whereas those in Services (who make up 40 percent of individuals in the top 1 percent) have earnings that are less cyclical than the average worker.

scholarly journals Power, Alliances, and Redistribution

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl Friedrich Bossert
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Social Security ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Social Systems ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
The Social ◽  
The World

Latin America is considered the most unequal continent in the world. Paradoxically, the development of resource-intensive social systems has done little to change the social imbalance. The author traces this paradox using Argentina as an example, uncovering the underlying conflicts of power and interests, and identifying successful strategies for implementing inclusive policies. As the first study of its kind, it systematically examines the long-term development of social security for low-income earners in Argentina and analyzes the decisive political, social, and economic factors influencing it.

Housing Benefit and Welfare Retrenchment in Britain

2000 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 263-279 ◽  
Author(s):  
PETER A. KEMP
Keyword(s):  
Social Security ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Recent Literature ◽  
Housing Allowance ◽  
The Social ◽  
Previous Decade ◽  
Housing Benefit ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Cost

Following the 1997 general election in Britain, the New Labour government made clear its intention to cut back and radically reform the social security system, including Housing Benefit, an income-related housing allowance for low-income tenants. The cost of Housing Benefit had doubled in real terms over the previous decade and was taking up a growing share of social security expenditure. The scheme also suffered from major deficiencies. Drawing on recent literature on welfare state retrenchment, this article examines why the government eventually retreated from cuts and a wholesale reform of Housing Benefit and opted instead for a more modest and long-term approach.

scholarly journals Overview of PROMISE

2020 ◽  
pp. 216514342098045
Author(s):  
David E. Emenheiser ◽  
Corinne Weidenthal ◽  
Selete Avoke ◽  
Marlene Simon-Burroughs
Keyword(s):  
Career Development ◽  
Social Security ◽  
Human Services ◽  
Technical Assistance ◽  
Department Of Education ◽  
Social Security Administration ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Health And Human Services ◽  
The Social ◽  
The U.S

Promoting the Readiness of Minors in Supplemental Security Income (PROMISE), a study of 13,444 randomly assigned youth and their families, includes six model demonstration projects and a technical assistance center funded through the U.S. Department of Education and a national evaluation of the model demonstration projects funded through the Social Security Administration. The Departments of Labor and Health and Human Services and the Executive Office of the President partnered with the Department of Education and Social Security Administration to develop and monitor the PROMISE initiative. This article provides an overview of PROMISE as the introduction to this special issue of Career Development and Transition for Exceptional Individuals.

Schwäche der Tarifautonomie und Legitimitätsfragen im Arbeitsrecht und im Sozialrecht

2016 ◽  
Vol 62 (2) ◽  
pp. 209-236
Author(s):  
Stephan Seiwerth
Keyword(s):  
Social Security ◽  
Minimum Wage ◽  
Trade Unions ◽  
System Change ◽  
State Regulation ◽  
The State ◽  
Social Security Administration ◽  
Collective Agreements ◽  
The Social ◽  
Social Partners

AbstractSocial partners have played a privileged role in German social security administration since Bismarckian times. In 2014, a new legislation empowered the social partners to set the level of the statutory minimum wage and to demand the extension of collective agreements. This article examines the interdependence of the trade unions’ and employer organisations’ membership numbers and their involvement in state regulation of labour and social security law. In case the interest in autonomous regulations is not going to increase, the state will have to step in with more heteronomous regulation. This would incrementally lead to a system change.

Self-employed surfers, universal credit and the minimally decent life

Legal Studies ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Christopher Rowe
Keyword(s):  
Social Security ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Judicial Review ◽  
The Self ◽  
Tax Credits ◽  
Minimum Income ◽  
Wage Labour ◽  
The Social ◽  
Decent Life ◽  
The Government

Abstract As part of its response to Covid-19 the government paused the use of the ‘Minimum Income Floor’ (MIF), which restricts the Universal Credit (UC) entitlement of the self-employed. This paper places the MIF in the wider context of conditionality in the social security system and considers a judicial review which claimed that the MIF was discriminatory. The paper focuses on how UC affects the availability of real choices for low-income citizens to limit or escape from wage labour, with two implications of the move to UC highlighted. First, the overlooked labour decommodifying aspect of tax credits, which provided a minimum income guarantee and a genuine alternative to wage labour for people who self-designated as ‘self-employed’, even if their earnings were minimal or non-existent, has been removed. Secondly, UC has in some respects improved the position of low-paid wage labourers in ‘mini-jobs’, who are not subject to conditionality once they work for the equivalent of approximately nine hours a week on the minimum wage.

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