Communication Infrastructure and Stabilizing Food Prices: Evidence from the Telegraph Network in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 65-101
Author(s):  
Pei Gao ◽  
Yu-Hsiang Lei
Keyword(s):  
Nineteenth Century ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Difference In Difference ◽  
Information Frictions ◽  
Communication Infrastructure ◽  
Weather Shocks ◽  
Local Weather ◽  
Grain Prices

This paper exploits a unique historical setting—the expansion of the telegraph network in nineteenth-century China when railroads were limited—to examine whether the reduction of information frictions stabilizes grain prices. Employing a difference-in-difference (DID) strategy, we find that the telegraph access (i) reduced both the magnitude and the incidence of extreme prices; (ii) mitigated price responses to local weather shocks but increased the responsiveness to shocks in other telegraph-connected regions; (iii) affected the price volatility in a mean-reverting pattern; i.e., volatility rose in previously price-stable regions, and volatility decreased in price-unstable regions. (JEL D83, L96, N55, N75, O13, O18, Q11)

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF THE WORLD FOOD PRICE INDEX ON SOME EAST-EUROPEAN ECONOMIES

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 268-287
Author(s):  
Corina Saman ◽  
Cecilia Alexandri
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
Agricultural Trade ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Positive Shock ◽  
Macroeconomic Implications ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Food

This paper deals with the dynamic response of exchange rates, inflation and agricultural foreign trade in Bulgaria, Poland and Romania to global food prices. We employ time-varying VARs with stochastic volatility to estimate the behaviour of these macroeconomic variables over the 2001M1–2015M12 period. The original contribution of this paper is that it captures the time variation and nonlinearities of the relationship between variables taking into account food price volatility and its macroeconomic implications. The main findings of the paper are: (i) high global food prices were transmitted to domestic economies causing pressure on inflation in the long run; (ii) in the short run the impact of a positive shock in international food price increases domestic inflation, depreci-ates the currency and reduces the agricultural trade; (iii) the vulnerabilities to global food prices are more pregnant for Romania and Bulgaria; (iv) the difference in the transmission of world prices is related to the different status of the countries as regards food and agricultural trade. The findings of the research would be significant for the governments to promote policies to help farmers respond to the rising of food prices by growing more and responding to export opportunities that may arise.

Reflections on Sustainable Development Planning in the Agricultural Industry

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 591
Author(s):  
Aigul TLESOVA ◽  
Saule PRIMBETOVA ◽  
Aigul KAZAMBAYEVA ◽  
Saltanat YESSENGALIYEVA ◽  
Farida MUKHAMBETKALIYEVA
Keyword(s):  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Development Planning ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Agricultural Industry ◽  
Theoretical Approaches ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Prices ◽  
Food Shortages ◽  
Food Reserves

In the past few years, we have experienced a transition from the decades-long period of falling real prices of grains, and food more generally, to a new market environment in which commodity and food prices are higher, more volatile and more highly influenced by petroleum prices. The problems of reaction for price volatility, both in the short- and long-run, are complex and multifaceted. Looking back at the 2007/08 crisis, countries responded through a spectrum of policies, but were largely unprepared, resulting in ad hoc and short-term mechanisms. Countries maintaining food reserves used these to intervene directly in the market to stabilize domestic prices. Many food importing countries reduced import tariffs, while several surplus producing countries limited, or even banned, exports in order to avoid food shortages and further domestic price increases. For whatever actions governments consider taking, it is always important to keep in mind the full set of policy measures, the wider risks and possible responses for the targeted population. The following suggests that choosing appropriate policies requires a deeper understanding of the issues at stake. This paper analyses the various theoretical approaches to the planning of agricultural and food areas of Kazakhstan. The authors consider that the method of forecast scenarios is the most effective one.

scholarly journals Weather shocks, traders' expectations, and food prices

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Letta ◽  
Pierluigi Montalbano ◽  
Guillaume Pierre
Keyword(s):  
Food Prices ◽  
Weather Shocks

scholarly journals IMPROVING FOOD POLICIES FOR A CLIMATE INSECURE WORLD: EVIDENCE FROM ETHIOPIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 258 ◽  
pp. 66-82
Author(s):  
Shouro Dasgupta ◽  
Elizabeth J. Z. Robinson
Keyword(s):  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Food Systems ◽  
Household Survey ◽  
Safety Net ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Weather Shocks ◽  
Cash Assistance ◽  
Agricultural Yields ◽  
Food Insecure Households

Climate change and weather shocks have multi-faceted impacts on food systems with important implications for economic policy. Combining a longitudinal household survey with high-resolution climate data, we demonstrate that both climate and weather shocks increase food insecurity; cash assistance and participation in Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme have reduced food insecurity; but food assistance has been ineffective. Importantly, households with savings, and those that stored their harvest to sell at higher prices rather than for home use, suffered less from food insecurity, yet both strategies are harder for the poorest and most food insecure households to adopt. Our paper provides micro-founded evidence needed to design policies that both improve agricultural yields in the context of a changing climate and target households’ abilities to cope with shocks that put upwards pressure on food prices.

Understanding causes of volatility in onion prices in India

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 255-275 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pratap Birthal ◽  
Akanksha Negi ◽  
P.K. Joshi
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Market Power ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Series Data ◽  
High Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Food Commodities

Purpose Post-2008 global food crisis the prices of perishable high-value food commodities, such as vegetables and fruits, in India have risen faster and become more volatile compared to that of cereals. The welfare consequences of price shocks though are well understood yet the policy responses to manage these remain blurred because of a lack of clarity on their causes. Focusing on onions that comprise an important constituent of the Indian diet, the purpose of this paper is to explore causes of high price volatility. Design/methodology/approach Using high-frequency time series data on wholesale prices and arrivals of onions in major markets and other relevant variables, this paper analyzes causes of price volatility from several angles, that is production shocks, seasonality in production and market arrivals, internal trade, export policies and market power of intermediaries on the supply chain. Findings Despite markets being integrated and no significant climatic shocks to production there exists a strong element of uncertainty in market arrivals of onions, pointing toward the market power immediate downstream the production or alternatively anti-competition trade practices in major markets as a cause of high price volatility. The measures to manage price volatility, such as an increase in minimum export prices and bans on exports, are also not found to have an immediate cooling effect on prices. Research limitations/implications The agricultural policy should provide for a system of market intelligence to monitor anti-competitive trade practices along the supply chain, and to take proactive trade control measures to prevent frequent ups and downs in domestic prices. In addition, it should provide for incentives for developing efficient supply chains and for the cultivation of onions in the regions that have agronomic potential but it has remained underexploited due to one or the other constraint. Social implications Excessive volatility in food prices impacts farmers, consumers, processors, and traders and even political system. It may distort production and investment decisions of farmers and intermediaries on the value chains, leading to inefficient allocation of resources. The poor consumers may be forced to reduce food and non-food productive expenditures. If persists for a longer period, it may lead to political instability too. Originality/value Several studies have analyzed volatility in food prices and causes thereof. However, rarely any of these has examined volatility in prices of perishable high-value food commodities. This paper is an attempt toward filling this gap.

Food price volatility and socio-inequalities in household food insecurity during coronavirus disease-2019 lockdown in Nansana municipality, Wakiso district Uganda

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward Buzigi ◽  
Stephen Onakuse
Keyword(s):  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Food Aid ◽  
Household Food Insecurity ◽  
Staple Food ◽  
Household Food

Abstract BackgroundThis study assessed staple food price volatility, food consumption scores (FCS) and prevalence of household food insecurity (HHFI) and its socio-inequalities during enforcing and lifting corona virus disease -2019 (COVID-19) lockdown in Nansana municipality, Uganda.MethodsA repeated households (HHs) based cross-sectional study was conducted in urban Nansana Municipality, Uganda. A total of 405 HHs (205 slum and 200 non-slum) were selected using stratified random sampling. Data on social demographics and FCS in the previous 7 days were collected using questionnaire-based telephone interviews with HH heads. Prices for staple foods was collected by asking food sellers from local markets. Mean staple food price differences between before COVID-19 lockdown and during enforcing or lifting the lockdown was tested by paired t test. A binary outcome of HHFI (FCS of 0-35) and food secure (FCS>35) HHs was created. The association between exposure variables and HHFI was tested using multivariate logistic regression analysis at a probability value of 5%.ResultsMean price of staple food significantly increased between before and during enforcing the COVID-19 lockdown (p <0.0001). Mean FCS during COVID-19 lockdown were at borderline for either slum (22.8) or non-slum (22.9) HHs, and were not significantly different from each other (p=0.06). During partial lifting of the lockdown, FCS among slum HHs were significantly lower at 20.1 (poor) compared to non-slum HHs at 22.7 (borderline) (p=0.01). The mean FCS was significantly higher at borderline (24.5) among HHs that received food aid compared to poor FCS (18.2) among slum HHs that did not receive food aid (p<0.0001). The prevalence of HHFI was high and not significantly different (p>0.05) between slum (94.6%) and non-slum (93.5%) HHs during COVID-19 lockdown. HHFI was higher in slum (98.5%) than non-slum (94%) HHs (p<0.05) on partial lifting of the lockdown. Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) showed that being a wage earner and employed HH head was positively (AOR: 8.3, 95% CI: 1.9-36.2) and negatively (AOR: 0.07, CI: 0.02-0.2) associated with HHFI, respectively. During partial lifting of COVID-19 lockdown, slum HHs (AOR: 11.8, 95% CI: 1.5-91.3), female headed HHs (AOR: 11.9, 95%CI: 1.5-92.7), wage earners (AOR: 10.7, 95% CI: 1.4-82.9) and tenants (AOR: 4.0, 95% CI: 1.1- 14.7) were positively associated with HHFI. Conclusion Staple food prices increased during enforcing COVID-19 lockdown compared before lockdown. Food aid distribution during COVID-19 lockdown improved FCS among slum HHs, however, it did not prevent against slum HHFI.

scholarly journals Differences in Local Rice Price Volatility, Climate, and Macroeconomic Determinants in the Indonesian Market

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 4465
Author(s):  
Agie Wandala Putra ◽  
Jatna Supriatna ◽  
Raldi Hendro Koestoer ◽  
Tri Edhi Budhi Soesilo
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Climate Dynamics ◽  
Local Market ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Controllable Factors ◽  
Rice Price ◽  
Rice Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Determinants

Rice is a staple food in most Asian countries, and food security is often viewed as having a rice supply to avoid a food crisis. The large number of people who have low incomes means there is a risk of household economic conditions being threatened when food prices are not controlled. We present a different approach by measuring rice price volatility at the local market level with climate and macroeconomic variables. The model succeeds in representing the variables that affect rice prices by an average of 75% nationally. The influence of macroeconomic variables and climate dynamics was found to have a non-uniform pattern from one region to another. The factors that dominate the volatility of rice prices in each province were different. To help address these problems, it is suggested to model and integrate climate data and macroeconomic variables. The output can be used to determine national policies for controllable factors and anticipate climate dynamics to reduce the risk that communities will have difficulty accessing food.

scholarly journals Pemilahan Volatilitas Harga Daging Sapi Menggunakan Metode Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 41
Author(s):  
Fitria Hasanah ◽  
Hari Wijayanto ◽  
I Made Sumertajaya
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Intrinsic Mode Functions ◽  
Import Quota ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
The Government ◽  
Beef Prices

<strong>English</strong><br />Staple food prices include the major determinants of households food security and general inflation. Beef is a basic food which its price is controlled by the Government of Indonesia. This study aims to identify the determinants beef price volatility using the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) method. The data was a weekly series of Januari 2006–Desember 2018 obtained from the Ministry of Trade. EEMD extracts data into a number of Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) that are independent which are then used to forecast beef prices with the ARIMA model. EEMD produced 6 IMFs and one residual. The residual contributed 99.85% to beef price volatility. This means that the long-term trend of beef prices is determined by the residual trends. The EEMD results indicate that the high beef price volatility in certain periods is mainly due to high demand during the Ramadhan month and Idul Fitri, import quota policy, and changes in exchange rates and petroleum prices. The IMF and residual based ARIMA forecasting model obtained MAPE value of 0.42% but with contradicting directions. The Government may use the import quota as a policy instrument for stabilizing the beef price.<br /><br /><br /><strong>Indonesian</strong><br />Harga pangan pokok termasuk faktor penentu utama ketahanan pangan rumah tangga dan inflasi umum. Daging sapi adalah salah satu bahan pangan pokok yang harganya dikendalikan Pemerintah Indonesia. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengidentifikasi faktor penentu volatilitas harga daging sapi dengan metode <em>Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition</em> (EEMD). EEMD menguraikan data menjadi sejumlah <em>Intrinsic Mode Function</em> (IMF) yang saling bebas yang selanjutnya digunakan untuk melakukan peramalan harga daging sapi dengan model ARIMA. Data yang digunakan adalah harga daging sapi mingguan Januari 2006–Desember 2018 yang diperoleh dari Kementerian Perdagangan. EEMD menghasilkan 6 IMF dan satu sisaan. Sisaan IMF memberikan kontribusi sebesar 99,85% terhadap pergerakan harga daging sapi. Artinya bahwa tren jangka panjang harga daging sapi ditentukan oleh tren sisaan. Berdasarkan hasil EEMD, volatilitas harga daging sapi yang tinggi pada periode-periode tertentu dipengaruhi oleh beberapa faktor terutama tingginya permintaan selama bulan Ramadhan dan Idul Fitri dan kebijakan kuota impor, serta perubahan nilai tukar rupiah dan harga BBM. Model peramalan ARIMA yang diduga berdasarkan IMF dan sisaan IMF menghasilkan nilai MAPE sebesar 0,42%, namun arah perubahannya tidak bersesuaian. Disarankan agar pemerintah menggunakan kuota impor sebagai salah satu instrumen kebijakan stabilisasi harga daging sapi.

scholarly journals Determinants of food price volatility in Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 51 (4) ◽  
pp. 165-174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ismail Olaleke Fasanya ◽  
Feyikunayo Olawepo
Keyword(s):  
Direct Effect ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Multivariate Garch ◽  
Conditional Volatility ◽  
Lending Rate ◽  
The Government ◽  
Alternative Sources ◽  
Data Frequency

Abstract In this paper we examined the determinants of food price volatility in Nigeria using monthly data from January, 1997 to April, 2017. We employed the multivariate GARCH approach to evaluate the level of interdependence and the dynamics of volatility across these markets. In particular, the Baba-Engle-Kraft-Kroner (BEKK) model and the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model were used for estimation. The findings showed that information shocks originating in Consumer Price Indices (CPI), lending rate, exchange rate and oil market have a direct effect on the current conditional volatility in food market while the information shocks originating in food have a direct effect on the current conditional volatility in all the markets considered except for oil. These results were insensitive to changes in data frequency and different oil price specification. Hence, the government should encourage the use of alternative sources of energy to reduce the effect of high oil prices on food prices and provide soft agricultural credit scheme to farmers with a low lending rate through specialized banks.

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