Russia worries about food prices amid harvest plenty

Significance Last year brought yet another large grain harvest and other farming sectors including meat and dairy performed well. However, a second year of export restrictions on wheat reflects political worries about managing domestic prices, not actual food availability. Impacts As expected, Russia has renewed its food embargo against Western nations to the end of 2021. A Russian ban on certain produce from Uzbekistan, later reversed, may reflect political friction more than safety concerns. To offset the loss of Uzbek tomatoes, Russia has increased its import quota for Turkey by 25%.

Pemilahan Volatilitas Harga Daging Sapi Menggunakan Metode Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition

<strong>English</strong><br />Staple food prices include the major determinants of households food security and general inflation. Beef is a basic food which its price is controlled by the Government of Indonesia. This study aims to identify the determinants beef price volatility using the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) method. The data was a weekly series of Januari 2006–Desember 2018 obtained from the Ministry of Trade. EEMD extracts data into a number of Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) that are independent which are then used to forecast beef prices with the ARIMA model. EEMD produced 6 IMFs and one residual. The residual contributed 99.85% to beef price volatility. This means that the long-term trend of beef prices is determined by the residual trends. The EEMD results indicate that the high beef price volatility in certain periods is mainly due to high demand during the Ramadhan month and Idul Fitri, import quota policy, and changes in exchange rates and petroleum prices. The IMF and residual based ARIMA forecasting model obtained MAPE value of 0.42% but with contradicting directions. The Government may use the import quota as a policy instrument for stabilizing the beef price.<br /><br /><br /><strong>Indonesian</strong><br />Harga pangan pokok termasuk faktor penentu utama ketahanan pangan rumah tangga dan inflasi umum. Daging sapi adalah salah satu bahan pangan pokok yang harganya dikendalikan Pemerintah Indonesia. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengidentifikasi faktor penentu volatilitas harga daging sapi dengan metode <em>Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition</em> (EEMD). EEMD menguraikan data menjadi sejumlah <em>Intrinsic Mode Function</em> (IMF) yang saling bebas yang selanjutnya digunakan untuk melakukan peramalan harga daging sapi dengan model ARIMA. Data yang digunakan adalah harga daging sapi mingguan Januari 2006–Desember 2018 yang diperoleh dari Kementerian Perdagangan. EEMD menghasilkan 6 IMF dan satu sisaan. Sisaan IMF memberikan kontribusi sebesar 99,85% terhadap pergerakan harga daging sapi. Artinya bahwa tren jangka panjang harga daging sapi ditentukan oleh tren sisaan. Berdasarkan hasil EEMD, volatilitas harga daging sapi yang tinggi pada periode-periode tertentu dipengaruhi oleh beberapa faktor terutama tingginya permintaan selama bulan Ramadhan dan Idul Fitri dan kebijakan kuota impor, serta perubahan nilai tukar rupiah dan harga BBM. Model peramalan ARIMA yang diduga berdasarkan IMF dan sisaan IMF menghasilkan nilai MAPE sebesar 0,42%, namun arah perubahannya tidak bersesuaian. Disarankan agar pemerintah menggunakan kuota impor sebagai salah satu instrumen kebijakan stabilisasi harga daging sapi.

PERTANGGUNGJAWABAN PIDANA PARTAI KS YANG MENERIMA HASIL TINDAK PIDANA KORUPSI BERDASARKAN UNDANG-UNDANG NOMOR 8 TAHUN 2010

Based on The Act No. 8 of 2010 of The Prevention and Combating of Money Laundering, money laundering is classified into 2 (two) forms, which are active money laundering and passive money laundering. Passive money laundering is an act of receiving, holding, or using a proceed of crime. Passive money laundering could be done by corporation, such as a political party. LHI is a member of the The House of Representatives and at the same time, President of The KS Party. LHI received IDR 1.300.000.000,- and 1 unit of Toyota FJ Cruiser worth IDR 1.100.000.000,- from MEL as the Director of PT. IU in January 2013. The provision is given relating to the position of LHI as a member of The House of Representatives, LHI was asked to influence fellow members of The House of Representatives and S as the Minister of Agriculture who is also a member of The KS Party. S was expected to issue a letter of approval for the application of additional beef import quota proposed by PT. IU. 1 unit of Toyota FJ Cruiser was then donated by LHI to The KS Party. According to the criminal liability of corporation theory which is Identification Theory, the act of General Secretary and General Treasurer of The KS Party is identified as the act of The KS Party. It makes The KS Party criminally liable for receiving a donation from the proceed of crime and use it for its Safari Dakwah activity as part of its campaign in Sumatera. AbstrakTindak pidana pencucian uang berdasarkan Undang-Undang Nomor 8 Tahun 2010 Tentang Pencegahan dan Pemberantasan Tindak Pidana Pencucian Uang diklasifikasikan menjadi 2 (dua) bentuk, yaitu tindak pidana pencucian uang aktif dan pasif. Pencucian uang pasif adalah perbuatan menerima atau menguasai atau menggunakan hasil tindak pidana. Pencucian uang pasif dapat dilakukan oleh korporasi, yaitu salah satunya oleh partai politik. LHI adalah anggota Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat dan sekaligus Presiden Partai KS. Pada bulan Januari 2013, LHI menerima uang sebesar Rp. 1.300.000.000,- dan 1 (satu) unit mobil Toyota FJ Cruiser seharga Rp 1.100.000.000,- dari MEL selaku Direktur Utama PT. IU. Pemberian tersebut diberikan berkaitan dengan jabatan LHI selaku anggota Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat, LHI diminta untuk mempengaruhi sesama anggota Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat dan mempengaruhi S selaku Menteri Pertanian yang juga merupakan anggota Partai KS. S diharapkan menerbitkan surat rekomendasi persetujuan pemasukan atas permohonan penambahan kuota impor daging sapi yang diajukan oleh PT. IU. 1 (satu) unit mobil Toyota FJ Cruiser kemudian disumbangkan oleh LHI kepada Partai KS. Berdasarkan teori pertanggungjawaban pidana korporasi yaitu Teori Identifikasi, perbuatan Sekretaris Jenderal dan Bendahara Umum Partai KS sebagai pengurus yang menerima hasil tindak pidana korupsi diidentikkan menjadi perbuatan Partai KS sehingga Partai KS dapat dikenakan pertanggungjawaban pidana karena menerima sumbangan mobil hasil tindak pidana dan menggunakannya untuk kegiatan Safari Dakwah dalam rangka kampanye di Sumatera.

The Impact of Potential Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement Renegotiation on the Korean Rice Market and Trade

Korea replaced its rice import quota with a tariff rate quota (TRQ) in 2015. A structural model representing the Korean rice market is developed to evaluate this new trade policy and examine the possibility of Korean rice imports under uncertainty. Results indicate that rice imports in excess of the current TRQ quantity are unlikely for a range of market conditions. Two scenarios, which are the over-quota tariff rate reduction and the TRQ quantity expansion, show how the market responds to policy changes. In addition, Korean rice imports are sensitive to consumer preferences for different rice types.

Sikap Konsumen Terhadap Harga Referensi Komoditas Hortikultura Strategis : Studi Kasus Kecamatan Cengkareng, Jakarta Barat (Consumer’s Attitude Towards the Reference Price of Strategic Horticulture Commodity : Case of Study in Cengkareng, West Jakarta)

<p>Solusi jangka pendek untuk menstabilkan harga bawang merah dan cabai adalah dengan melakukan impor produk-produk hortikultura tersebut dari negara lain saat harga melonjak naik. Kuota impor baru akan dibuka apabila harga bawang merah dan cabai di pasar eceran melebihi harga referensi yang telah ditetapkan. Penelitian bertujuan menganalisis sikap dan faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi sikap konsumen terhadap harga referensi yang ditetapkan pemerintah pada komoditas bawang merah dan cabai sebagai masukan untuk penentuan harga referensi. Penelitian dilakukan pada Bulan Desember 2015 di Kecamatan Cengkareng, Jakarta Barat dengan metode survey menggunakan kuesioner. Data yang diambil dalam penelitian ini berupa karakteristik responden dan sikap konsumen apakah bersedia membayar lebih tinggi dari harga referensi yang ditetapkan atau tidak. Dari survey yang dilakukan ditemukan bahwa sebagian besar konsumen menunjukkan sikap bersedia membayar lebih tinggi dari harga referensi yang ditetapkan. Rata-rata harga tertinggi yang bersedia dibayarkan oleh konsumen adalah sebesar Rp38.272,00/kg untuk komoditas bawang merah, Rp 41.800,00/kg untuk komoditas cabai merah atau cabai merah keriting dan Rp42.221,00/kg untuk komoditas cabai rawit merah. Studi ini merekomendasikan kemungkinan penetapan ulang harga referensi bawang merah dan cabai dengan tingkat harga yang lebih tinggi dibanding yang telah ditetapkan. </p><p><strong>Keywords</strong></p><p>Bawang merah; Cabai; Sikap konsumen; Harga referensi </p><p><strong>Abstract</strong></p><p>A short solution to stabilize shallot and chili price is frequently carried out by importing those commodity from other countries when the price are high. Import quota is opened when shallot and chili price in retail market above the reference price. No revision has been done yet since shallot and chili’s reference price were announced in 2013. The objective of this research is to analyze consumer’s attitude and factors affecting consumer’s attitude regarding the 2013 reference price, whether they are willing to pay higher or not. This research was conducted in December 2015 in Cengkareng Subdistrict, West Jakarta. Survey method was used for collecting data through the use of structured questionnaire. Most important information gathered were the characteristics of consumer respondents and their attitude towards shallot and chili’s reference prices. Results suggest that most respondents are willing to pay higher than the reference prices. In average they are willing to pay as much as IDR 38,272,00/kg for shallot, IDR 41,800,00/kg for chilli pepper, and IDR 42,221,00/kg for cayenne chili pepper. This study recommends the possibility of redetermining the shallot and chili’s reference prices by the price level that is higher than previously set. </p>

DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN IMPOR DAN FAKTOR EKSTERNAL TERHADAP KESEJAHTERAAN PRODUSEN DAN KONSUMEN BAWANG MERAH DI INDONESIA

Shallot is the main priority commodity in the development of lowland vegetable in Indonesia. Demand for shallot increases every year but domestic shallot production is unable to meet the demand. Therefore, import of shallot is needed to cover the gap. On the other hand, the import policy also has changed by government in accordance with the policy objectives. The research objectives are (1) to identify the factors that influence the production, demand, import, and price of shallot; (2) to analyze the impact of import tariff, import quota, and the external factor on supply, demand, and price of shallot; and (3) to analyze the impact of import tariff, import quota, and the external factor on shallot producers and consumers welfare in Indonesia. In order to address these objectives, a simultaneous equations model of Indonesian shallot trade was estimated by Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS) method. The shallot production is influenced by the real producer price of shallot, harvested area, and credit interest rates. This research indicates that the increase of shallot import tariff will increase the shallot prices, producers welfare, government revenues and net welfare, but it decrease supply, demand, import, and consumers welfare. To anticipate the decrease of world price of shallot (12 percent) and to increase the shallot producers and net welfare in Indonesia, government of Indonesia is suggested to restrict the shallot import by imposing import tariff (more than nine percent) or decrease import quota.

Application of Index Models in Assessing the Foreign Economic Activity of Ukraine

The importance of statistical assessment of foreign economic activities in Ukraine, considering the structure and geographical re-orientation of the Ukrainian foreign trade and new challenges of the globalized and highly competitive market of goods and services, gives rise to the modeling of patterns underlying future tendencies in the development of the Ukrainian foreign trade. The article contains a description of approaches to the analysis of foreign economic activities in Ukraine by use of index models. Several index models are constructed and used for assessing the debt burden of Ukraine, the impact of selected sub-factors on it are determined, and the dynamics of the export quota in 2016–2017 are highlighted By use of the chain substitutions method it is found that the debt burden of Ukraine decreased in 2017, compared to 2016, by 21.0% due to the reduced import dependence of Ukraine, by 12.0% due to the partial debt burden, but increased by 4.1% due to the export losses. The results show that the strongest impact on the dynamics of debt burden of Ukraine came from the import dependence (56.6%), which means that the strict import quota remains the main factor of the increasing foreign debt of Ukraine, which caused 5.9% loss of export earnings in 2016, and 2.3% in 2017. The analysis of the export quota dynamics based on the index model showed that the impact of the international intraspecific specialization of the country on it was 43.2%, and the impact of the exports’ share in the foreign trade balance made 44.7%. That is, the main factors of change are the commodity and geographical specialization of Ukraine, as well as the imbalance in the foreign trade. Results of the analysis of the indices of averages show that due to the growth in export quotas of products of vegetable origin, fats and oils by 12.7%, and under the influence of the commodity structure of exports (–8.4%), the export quota increased by 3.2% in 2017 compared to 2012. The import quota of goods decreased by 17%, including by 7.6% due to the reduced import dependence of the country, and by 10.1% due to the changed structure of imports. Results of the analysis indicate significant change in the trend of export and import quotas of Ukraine on account of geographical reorientation: due to changes in the geographical structure of exports and imports of Ukraine, the export and import quotas decreased by 41.5%, and 32.2%, respectively. The analysis of the commodity structure of the Ukrainian foreign trade in 2012–2017 shows that the largest export positions were non-precious metals (ferrous metals and products made thereof), grain crops, fats and oils, electric machinery; in the exports of services, the largest share was accounted for by transport services, telecommunication services, computer and information services, processing of material resources, and business services. In the commodity structure of imports, mineral products had the largest share, which, however, decreased by 7.36 percentage points in 2017 compared to 2012. Imports of services are dominated by transport services and government services. The Russian Federation remains to be main partner in export-import operations of Ukraine: 9.1% of the Ukraine’s exports of goods in 2017, which is 16.53 percentage points less than in 2012; and 14.5% of the imports of goods in 2017, which is 17.86 percentage points less than in 2012. The main partner of Ukraine in the imports of services is the U.S., with 11.78% of the total imports of services in 2017, which is 6.7 percentage points more than in 2012.