Price Forecasting Accuracy of the OECD-FAO's Agricultural Outlook and the European Commission DG AGRI's Medium-Term Agricultural Outlook Report

The OECD-FAO's Agricultural Outlook and the European Commission DG AGRI's Medium-term agricultural outlook report provide price forecasts. Users of these forecasts may be interested in their accuracy. This paper measures the accuracy for values forecast for the following year. These are very accurate as regards the AO EU price of poultry, the EC outlook price of common wheat and feed barley, but not so accurate as regards the EC outlookon beef prices. In some cases, discrepancies between the forecasts follow a systematic pattern. The paper also discovers how the OECD-FAO's outlook projections for a common wheat world representative price are changing from year to year. Usually they are positively correlated, but there are certain exceptions where their correlation is significantly negative. This means that the price projections of some commodities may vary dramatically.

PERMINTAAN DAGING SAPI DI PROVINSI RIAU

The husbandry sub-sector is a source of supporting energy for human needs, especially beef. Beef is a food commodity that has had an impact on improving public nutrition, especially animal protein. This study aims to analyze the development of beef demand and variables that influence it in Riau, the factors that influence beef demand in Riau Province, and the price elasticity, income elasticity, and cross elasticity of factors affecting meat demand beef in Riau Province. This research used the literature study. The data used in this research was data time series from 1999 to 2015. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, multiple linear regression, and elasticity. The results showed that the overall average development of beef demand, beef prices, chicken meat prices, rice prices, population income, and the population increased during the period. The factors that significantly influence the demand for beef were the price of beef and the price of rice. Meanwhile, the price of chicken meat, the income of the population, and the population had no significant to the demand for beef. The results of the elasticity calculation of demand showed that beef prices, rice prices, and population income were responsive to beef demand. This indicates that changes in beef prices, rice prices, and population income had a major impact on changes in demand for beef.

VOLATILITAS DAN TRANSMISI HARGA DAGING SAPI DI INDONESIA: STUDI KASUS DI JAKARTA, BANDUNG, SEMARANG DAN SURABAYA

Abstrak Daging sapi merupakan salah satu komoditas strategis dengan harga yang cukup berfluktuasi. Fluktuasi harga daging sapi dapat berpengaruh terhadap produsen, konsumen, dan industri pengolahan daging sapi skala kecil. Besarnya perubahan harga daging sapi yang terjadi di suatu pasar dapat memengaruhi pasar lainnya dan dapat digunakan untuk mengetahui kekuatan suatu pasar. Kajian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji volatilitas dan transmisi harga daging sapi di sentra konsumen Jakarta dan sentra produsen Bandung, Semarang dan Surabaya. Data yang digunakan adalah data harian daging sapi. Volatilitas harga harian daging sapi dianalisis dengan menggunakan model GARCH dan transmisi harga dikaji dengan menggunakan model VAR/VECM. Hasil kajian menunjukkan bahwa hanya harga daging sapi Jakarta yang memiliki volatilitas rendah namun persisten dalam jangka panjang. Perubahan harga daging sapi ditransmisikan dua arah dari Jakarta ke Bandung dan Semarang, dan hanya searah dari Jakarta ke Surabaya. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa upaya stabilisasi harga daging sapi dapat dilakukan dengan menjaga ketersediaan daging sapi baik melalui impor (jangka pendek dan menengah) maupun upaya penyediaan bibit sapi dan sapi potong lokal dalam jangka panjang. Iklim usaha daging sapi yang kompetitif juga diperlukan agar ketidaksesuaian perubahan harga antar pasar dapat dikurangi. Kata Kunci: Daging Sapi, Volatilitas, GARCH, Vector Auto Regression, Stabilisasi Harga Abstract Beef is one of the strategic commodities with fairly fluctuating prices. Fluctuations in beef prices could affect producers, consumers, and small-scale beef processing industries. The magnitude of changes in beef prices that occur in a market could affect other markets and could be used to determine the strength of a market. The purpose of this paper is to examine the volatility and transmission of beef prices in the consumer centers of Jakarta and the production centers of Bandung, Semarang and Surabaya. The data used is the daily data of beef. Daily price volatility of beef was analyzed using the GARCH model and price transmission was assessed using the VAR/VECM model. The results of the study show that only Jakarta beef prices have low volatility but are persistent in the long term. Changes in beef prices are transmitted in two directions from Jakarta to Bandung and Semarang, and only in one direction from Jakarta to Surabaya. The results of the analysis show that efforts to stabilize beef prices could be carried out by maintaining the availability of beef either through import (short and medium term) or efforts to provide cattle seeds and local beef cattle in the long term. A competitive beef business climate is also needed so that discrepancies in price changes between markets could be reduced. Keywords: Beef, Volatility, GARCH, Vector Auto Regression, Price Stabilisation JEL Classification: F12, F13, F15

Analisis Volatilitas Harga Daging Sapi Sebelum Sampai Dengan Sesudah Hari Besar Agama di Kota Jambi

This study aims to analyze the level of beef price volatility before fasting (D-7) to after Eid (H + 7) in Jambi City, and compile a forecast model. This study used a survey method for beef traders in the Angso Duo market, Jambi City. The analysis used to calculate the volatility of beef prices is the ARCH (Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic) model analysis and the GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) model analysis. The average price of beef during the period before fasting (D-7) to after Eid (H + 7) in Jambi City was IDR 124,147 per kg with the highest price of IDR 150,000 and the lowest was 110,000 per kg. The volatility of beef prices during the period before fasting (D-7) to after Eid (H + 7) in Jambi City is the highest before Eid al-Fitr (Eid). ARCH and GARCH models can predict the future value of beef prices.

Analysis of Influencing Factors and Volatility of Broiler Meat Prices in Pasuruan Regency, East Java Province

The research was aimed to analyze of broiler meat price fluctuation, identify the factors competitor foodstuffs price that influence of broiler meat price, and identify alternative foodstuffs of broiler meat at consumer level in Pasuruan. The determination of location was did deliberately with consideration that in 2013, the production of broiler meat in Pasuruan was fourth highest production after Malang, Sidoarjo and Jombang , it was 8,842 million kg. This research was used secondary data from January 2010 until November 2015. The analytical method used is the price volatilitass analysis and multiple linear regression. The results showed that the value of broiler meat price volatility in Pasuruan tend to be small (low volatility) and happen quickly. Factors competitor foodstuffs price that influence the price of broiler meat in Pasuruan simultaneously influenced by the price of local chicken meat, beef prices, the price of eggs, and prices of salted anchovies fish. While partially, broiler meat prices at the consumer level in Pasuruan influenced by the price of beef and the price of eggs. The relation between the both showed that: broiler meat is alternative foodstuffs for beef, eggs are alternative foodstuffs for meat broiler, salted anchovies fish is complements for broiler meat.

Study on Preservation of Chilled Beef with Natural Essential Oil Nanocapsules

Beef is rich in amino acids and vitamin B6, carnitine, potassium, protein, and other nutrients. It can improve the body’s ability to resist disease and is especially suitable for growth, development, and postoperation and postrehabilitation care. Under such circumstances, the demand for beef consumption in various countries continues to grow steadily. At present, domestic beef prices continue to rise, and beef supply is insufficient. In addition, fresh beef is easy to be infected with microorganisms in the process of cold storage, which makes fresh beef deteriorated. Therefore, it is very important to add preservatives to prolong the shelf life of chilled beef. In this paper, the preservation of chilled beef with nanocapsules made of natural essential oil from plant extracts was studied. In this study, cumin, Zanthoxylum, ginger, cinnamon, clove, and thyme were selected to study the effect of six kinds of essential oils on beef preservation through comparative experiments. On the basis of such research data, the six kinds of essential oils were compounded, respectively, and different nanoessential oil capsules were applied to the fresh-keeping of chilled beef to make different kinds of nanoessential oil capsules. Through the experiment, the compound essential oil with better preservation effect was obtained. And through the comparison, cinnamon essential oil has obvious antibacterial activity, while ginger essential oil has the worst antibacterial effect. The pH value of beef can be changed and the degradation rate of protein in beef will be slowed down by applying appropriate amount of decomposed plant essential oil to beef samples. Through the above experimental results, we applied the compound essential oil to the preservation of cold and fresh beef at nanometer level and found that the effect was significant, which was worthy of application in major beef products processing plants.

Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Permintaan Daging Sapi Di Kota Pematangsiantar

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui perilaku responden sebagai konsumen rumah tangga daging sapi di Kota Pematangsiantar, untuk mengetahui perilaku industri daging sapi di Kota Pematangsiantar serta untuk menganalisis faktor-faktor permintaan daging sapi di Kota Pematangsiantar. Tujuan peneliti 1 dan 2 menggunakan metode survey dan metode analisis deskriptif, Tujuan peneliti yang ke 3 menggunakan Metode analisis data yang digunakan adalah model regresi linier berganda yang diolah dengan program SPSS 22 dengan penguji hipotesis yang terdiri dari koefisien (R2 ), uji F dan uji t. Hasil Penelitian menujukkan bahwa Harga daging sapi, harga daging kambing, dan pendapatan konsumen mampu menjelaskan variabel permintaan sebesar 80,2%. Sedangkan sisanya sebesar 19,8% dijelaskan oleh variabel lain yang tidak disertakan pada persamaan. secara parsial dari ketiga variabel bebas (independent) terdapat dua variabel (harga daging sapi dan harga daging kambing) berpengaruh tidak nyata dan positif terhadap permintaan. Variabel pendapatan konsumen berpengaruh nyata dan positif artinya bahwa setiap penambahan satuan pendapatan konsumen akan menambah permintaan daging sapi. ABSTRACT This study aims to determine the behavior of respondents as consumers of beef households in Pematangsiantar City, to determine the behavior of the beef industry in Pematangsiantar City and to analyze the factors of beef demand in Pematangsiantar City. Researchers goals 1 and 2 use survey methods and descriptive analysis methods, Researchers aim 3 using data analysis methods used is a multiple linear regression model that is processed with the SPSS 22 program with hypothesis testing consisting of coefficients (R2), F test and t test. The results showed that the price of beef, goat meat prices, and consumer income is able to explain the demand variable of 80.2%. While the remaining 19.8% is explained by other variables not included in the equation. partially from the three independent variables, there are two variables (beef prices and mutton prices) that have no significant and positive effect on demand. The variable of consumer income has a significant and positive effect, meaning that each additional unit of consumer income will increase beef demand.

KETAHANAN PANGAN PENDUDUK DI PULAU JAWA: PENDEKATAN VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

Food security over the past few decades has been a hot topic discussed in Indonesia. Food security can indirectly reflect the level of welfare of a household in a region. Various factors can influence the level of food security, both in the short term and in the long term. Therefore, this research was conducted with the aim to find out the factors that influence the food security of the population in the short term and in the long term. The data used in this study are secondary data sourced from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) in 2008-2017, namely data on food and non-food expenditure, real per capita income, agricultural land area, real sugar prices, real beef prices, and real rice prices. The data were analyzed using the VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) model. The results showed that in the short-term the factors that influence food security are income per capita real lag 1, real sugar prices lag 1, and real beef prices lag 1, while the factors that influence food security in the long-term are per capita income 1, agricultural area lag 1, real sugar 1 lag price, real beef price lag 1, and real rice price lag 1.

Pemilahan Volatilitas Harga Daging Sapi Menggunakan Metode Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition

<strong>English</strong><br />Staple food prices include the major determinants of households food security and general inflation. Beef is a basic food which its price is controlled by the Government of Indonesia. This study aims to identify the determinants beef price volatility using the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) method. The data was a weekly series of Januari 2006–Desember 2018 obtained from the Ministry of Trade. EEMD extracts data into a number of Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) that are independent which are then used to forecast beef prices with the ARIMA model. EEMD produced 6 IMFs and one residual. The residual contributed 99.85% to beef price volatility. This means that the long-term trend of beef prices is determined by the residual trends. The EEMD results indicate that the high beef price volatility in certain periods is mainly due to high demand during the Ramadhan month and Idul Fitri, import quota policy, and changes in exchange rates and petroleum prices. The IMF and residual based ARIMA forecasting model obtained MAPE value of 0.42% but with contradicting directions. The Government may use the import quota as a policy instrument for stabilizing the beef price.<br /><br /><br /><strong>Indonesian</strong><br />Harga pangan pokok termasuk faktor penentu utama ketahanan pangan rumah tangga dan inflasi umum. Daging sapi adalah salah satu bahan pangan pokok yang harganya dikendalikan Pemerintah Indonesia. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengidentifikasi faktor penentu volatilitas harga daging sapi dengan metode <em>Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition</em> (EEMD). EEMD menguraikan data menjadi sejumlah <em>Intrinsic Mode Function</em> (IMF) yang saling bebas yang selanjutnya digunakan untuk melakukan peramalan harga daging sapi dengan model ARIMA. Data yang digunakan adalah harga daging sapi mingguan Januari 2006–Desember 2018 yang diperoleh dari Kementerian Perdagangan. EEMD menghasilkan 6 IMF dan satu sisaan. Sisaan IMF memberikan kontribusi sebesar 99,85% terhadap pergerakan harga daging sapi. Artinya bahwa tren jangka panjang harga daging sapi ditentukan oleh tren sisaan. Berdasarkan hasil EEMD, volatilitas harga daging sapi yang tinggi pada periode-periode tertentu dipengaruhi oleh beberapa faktor terutama tingginya permintaan selama bulan Ramadhan dan Idul Fitri dan kebijakan kuota impor, serta perubahan nilai tukar rupiah dan harga BBM. Model peramalan ARIMA yang diduga berdasarkan IMF dan sisaan IMF menghasilkan nilai MAPE sebesar 0,42%, namun arah perubahannya tidak bersesuaian. Disarankan agar pemerintah menggunakan kuota impor sebagai salah satu instrumen kebijakan stabilisasi harga daging sapi.