scholarly journals Instruments, Randomization, and Learning about Development

2010 ◽  
Vol 48 (2) ◽  
pp. 424-455 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angus Deaton

There is currently much debate about the effectiveness of foreign aid and about what kind of projects can engender economic development. There is skepticism about the ability of econometric analysis to resolve these issues or of development agencies to learn from their own experience. In response, there is increasing use in development economics of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to accumulate credible knowledge of what works, without overreliance on questionable theory or statistical methods. When RCTs are not possible, the proponents of these methods advocate quasi-randomization through instrumental variable (IV) techniques or natural experiments. I argue that many of these applications are unlikely to recover quantities that are useful for policy or understanding: two key issues are the misunderstanding of exogeneity and the handling of heterogeneity. I illustrate from the literature on aid and growth. Actual randomization faces similar problems as does quasi-randomization, notwithstanding rhetoric to the contrary. I argue that experiments have no special ability to produce more credible knowledge than other methods, and that actual experiments are frequently subject to practical problems that undermine any claims to statistical or epistemic superiority. I illustrate using prominent experiments in development and elsewhere. As with IV methods, RCT-based evaluation of projects, without guidance from an understanding of underlying mechanisms, is unlikely to lead to scientific progress in the understanding of economic development. I welcome recent trends in development experimentation away from the evaluation of projects and toward the evaluation of theoretical mechanisms. (JEL C21, F35, O19)

Author(s):  
Marcelo M. Giugale

There is much discussion about global poverty and the billions of people living with almost nothing. Why is it that governments, development banks, think-tanks, academics, NGOs and many others can't just fix the problem? Why is it that seemingly obvious reforms never happen? Why are prosperity and equity so elusive? The revised second edition of Economic Development: What Everyone Needs to Know® brings readers right into the trenches of development policies to show what practitioners are actually doing and explains the issues, dilemmas, options, frustrations and opportunities they face, day in and day out. In straightforward language and a question-and-answer format, Marcelo M. Giugale outlines the frontier of the development practice or, as he puts it, "...the point at which knowledge stops and ignorance begins." He takes readers from why it is so difficult to get governments to function, to the basic policies that economies need to work well, the powerful new tools for social assistance, and the challenges of inclusion, education, health, infrastructure, technology, data, and foreign aid. Giugale gives no definitive, universal answers. They don't really exist. Rather, he highlights what works, what doesn't, and what's promising. Drawing from examples across the world, his overall message is clear: economic development, and the poverty reduction that goes with it, have never been more possible for more countries.


Asian Survey ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 60 (5) ◽  
pp. 978-1003
Author(s):  
Jacqueline Chen Chen ◽  
Jun Xiang

Existing studies of the impact of economic development on political trust in China have two major gaps: they fail to explain how economic development contributes to the hierarchical trust pattern, and they do not pay enough attention to the underlying mechanisms. In light of cultural theory and political control theory, we propose adapting performance theory into a theory of “asymmetrical attribution of performance” to better illuminate the case of China. This adapted theory leads to dual pathway theses: expectation fulfillment and local blaming. Using a multilevel mediation model, we show that expectation fulfillment mainly upholds trust in the central government, whereas local blaming undermines trust in local governments. We also uncover a rural–urban distinction in the dual pathway, revealing that both theses are more salient among rural Chinese.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 149-161
Author(s):  
Rebecca Panconesi ◽  
Mauricio Flores Carvalho ◽  
Matteo Mueller ◽  
Philipp Dutkowski ◽  
Paolo Muiesan ◽  
...  

Although machine perfusion is a hot topic today, we are just at the beginning of understanding the underlying mechanisms of protection. Recently, the first randomized controlled trial reported a significant reduction of ischemic cholangiopathies after transplantation of livers donated after circulatory death, provided the grafts were treated with an endischemic hypothermic oxygenated perfusion (HOPE). This approach has been known for more than fifty years, and was initially mainly used to preserve kidneys before implantation. Today there is an increasing interest in this and other dynamic preservation technologies and various centers have tested different approaches in clinical trials and cohort studies. Based on this, there is a need for uniform perfusion settings (perfusion route and duration), and the development of general guidelines regarding the duration of cold storage in context of the overall donor risk is also required to better compare various trial results. This article will highlight how cold perfusion protects organs mechanistically, and target such technical challenges with the perfusion setting. Finally, the options for viability testing during hypothermic perfusion will be discussed.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank de Vocht ◽  
Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi ◽  
Cheryl McQuire ◽  
Kate Tilling ◽  
Matthew Hickman ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Natural or quasi experiments are appealing for public health research because they enable the evaluation of events or interventions that are difficult or impossible to manipulate experimentally, such as many policy and health system reforms. However, there remains ambiguity in the literature about their definition and how they differ from randomized controlled experiments and from other observational designs. We conceptualise natural experiments in the context of public health evaluations and align the study design to the Target Trial Framework. Methods A literature search was conducted, and key methodological papers were used to develop this work. Peer-reviewed papers were supplemented by grey literature. Results Natural experiment studies (NES) combine features of experiments and non-experiments. They differ from planned experiments, such as randomized controlled trials, in that exposure allocation is not controlled by researchers. They differ from other observational designs in that they evaluate the impact of events or process that leads to differences in exposure. As a result they are, in theory, less susceptible to bias than other observational study designs. Importantly, causal inference relies heavily on the assumption that exposure allocation can be considered ‘as-if randomized’. The target trial framework provides a systematic basis for evaluating this assumption and the other design elements that underpin the causal claims that can be made from NES. Conclusions NES should be considered a type of study design rather than a set of tools for analyses of non-randomized interventions. Alignment of NES to the Target Trial framework will clarify the strength of evidence underpinning claims about the effectiveness of public health interventions.


2015 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 155-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter M. Steiner ◽  
Yongnam Kim ◽  
Courtney E. Hall ◽  
Dan Su

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and quasi-experimental designs like regression discontinuity (RD) designs, instrumental variable (IV) designs, and matching and propensity score (PS) designs are frequently used for inferring causal effects. It is well known that the features of these designs facilitate the identification of a causal estimand and, thus, warrant a causal interpretation of the estimated effect. In this article, we discuss and compare the identifying assumptions of quasi-experiments using causal graphs. The increasing complexity of the causal graphs as one switches from an RCT to RD, IV, or PS designs reveals that the assumptions become stronger as the researcher’s control over treatment selection diminishes. We introduce limiting graphs for the RD design and conditional graphs for the latent subgroups of compliers, always takers, and never takers of the IV design, and argue that the PS is a collider that offsets confounding bias via collider bias.


2006 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andre Borgerhoff

AbstractTimor-Leste has been facing the arduous task of building a viable nation-state since the country's 2002 restoration of independence. The dual challenge consists of interdependent efforts at nation-building and state-building. The author discusses both terms with regard to their relevance to public education and economic development. He raises the question of why nation-building and state-building experience rather contrary prioritisations in these functionally close policy fields. In the educational sector, government activities demonstrate Fretilin's orientation towards Portuguese-speaking countries. The introduction of Portuguese as an official language has accentuated existing lingual and generational cleavage lines. Economic policy in Timor-Leste, however, tends to be more pragmatic and less ideological. The article aims to make an innovative contribution to the interrelationship of nation-building and economic development by addressing important issues on the agenda such as the exploitation of oil, agriculture, tourism, the economic dependency on the former oppressor Indonesia, and foreign aid. The author argues that economic growth will eventually shape the future format of the East Timorese nation as either a new self-confident political player or a withdrawn peasant nation.


10.31355/9 ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 013-037 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven J Clarke ◽  
Mohammamadreza Akbari ◽  
Dr Shagheyegh Maleki Far

NOTE: THIS ARTICLE WAS PUBLISHED WITH THE INFORMING SCIENCE INSTITUTE. Aim/Purpose................................................................................................................................................................................................... This paper is a review of the progress of the Vietnam socio-economic and development plan and an assessment of the extent to which Vietnam is putting in place the critical social and economic development structures that will enable it to reach the status of “developed nation” in the time set (2020) by its national strategic plan. The research will identify and review trade patterns, trade policy and the effect of foreign aid on Vietnam’s plan to transform its economy and society from a developing nation status to status of developed nation. The overriding question stands as “is” Vietnam effectively moving towards developed nation status soon”? Background................................................................................................................................................................................................... This paper examines the history of Vietnam from the command economy in its transition to a market driven economy, the criteria, hurdles and challenges as the country moves towards a developed country status. Methodology................................................................................................................................................................................................... Applied research based on the body of research in socio-economic development theory, international trade and market theory. The review is conducted by collecting and analyzing data on foreign trade, foreign aid, business and general economic growth, development and social wellbeing. It identifies and appraises the trade patterns, trade effects, socio-economic policies and the effect of foreign aid] on the economic growth and the progress of the country towards becoming a developed nation state. Contribution................................................................................................................................................................................................... The findings will assist academic, business and government researchers, policy and decision makers engaged developing Vietnam’s trade policies and strategic plan for its it future growth and economic progress towards a developed nation status. The paper will also provide additional insight into the business and market structure and environment in Vietnam and the role it plays aiding its growth and development. Findings.......................................................................................................................................................................................................... Vietnam has experienced significant progress to date based on conventional developed nation criteria. However, there is an ongoing need for continued assertive governmental application of geo-economic and geopolitical policies focusing on sustainable, comprehensive, and vital social, cultural and economic growth. Recommendations for Practitioners................................................................................................................................................................ Specific policies and strategies for government and business reforms in Vietnam must focus on, 1. Replacing the projected benefits in growth utilizing accomplishments to date from negotiations and strategic development of the TPP, in-spite of current delays or withdrawal. 2. Continuing use of US financial aid and ODA sources to enhance HDI and support Vietnam’s commercial and social opportunities 3. Continued industrial zone development 4. Continued human labor improvements 5. Continued export expansion programs 6. Continued close working relationship with the WTO 7. Continued development strategies including SEDS, SEDPs, and FTAs Recommendation for Researchers................................................................................................................................................................ Researchers, when collecting economic and social data, need to [adhere to World Trade Standards data collection, measurement, classification, and estimation of trading data: for example,] precisely define, and determine the validity, accuracy, expected bias and relevant statistics and classification methods used by government agencies and international organizations. Impact on Society........................................................................................................................................................................................... Vietnam’s drive towards developed nation status will enhance the quality of life for a greater number of its citizens. Future Research................................................................................................................................................................................................ Future researchers ought to focus on specific elements of HDI and forms of foreign aid support for long-term economic and social development, and enhancing governmental reform of its dynamic and strategic development potential.


Author(s):  
Kiran Bahadur Pandey

Foreign aid is essential for least developed countries like Nepal because these countries have the shortage of fund to meet their domestic investment for accelerating economic development and also to finance the import of essential capital goods required for the development. Nepal receives foreign aid from bilateral and multilateral sources. Following a descriptive approaches this paper analyses the trend of foreign did flow in Nepal from aggregative perspective. Economic Journal of Development Issues Vol. 23&24 No. 1-2, (2017) Combined Issue, Page : 71-76


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