Prediction of influenza vaccine effectiveness for the influenza season 2017/18 in the US

Vaccination against seasonal influenza viruses is the most effective way to prevent infection. A key factor in the effectiveness of the seasonal influenza vaccine is its immunological compatibility with the circulating viruses during the season. The high evolutionary rate, antigenic shift and antigenic drift of influenza viruses, represents the main obstacle for correct prediction of the vaccine effectiveness for an upcoming flu season. Conventional structural and phylogenetic approaches for assessment of vaccine effectiveness have had a limited success in prediction of vaccine efficacy in the past. Recently, a novel bioinformatics approach for assessment of effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccine was proposed. Here, this approach was used for prediction of the vaccine effectiveness for the influenza season 2017/18 in US.

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Effects of Influenza Vaccination in the United States During the 2018–2019 Influenza Season

Clinical Infectious Diseases ◽

10.1093/cid/ciz1244 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 71 (8) ◽

pp. e368-e376 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Jessie R Chung ◽

Melissa A Rolfes ◽

Brendan Flannery ◽

Pragati Prasad ◽

Alissa O’Halloran ◽

...

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Influenza Vaccine ◽

Influenza Vaccination ◽

Influenza Season ◽

The United States ◽

Vaccine Effectiveness ◽

Influenza Viruses ◽

Monte Carlo Algorithm ◽

Medical Visits ◽

The Us

Abstract Background Multivalent influenza vaccine products provide protection against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2), and B lineage viruses. The 2018–2019 influenza season in the United States included prolonged circulation of A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses well-matched to the vaccine strain and A(H3N2) viruses, the majority of which were mismatched to the vaccine. We estimated the number of vaccine-prevented influenza-associated illnesses, medical visits, hospitalizations, and deaths for the season. Methods We used a mathematical model and Monte Carlo algorithm to estimate numbers and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) of influenza-associated outcomes prevented by vaccination in the United States. The model incorporated age-specific estimates of national 2018–2019 influenza vaccine coverage, influenza virus–specific vaccine effectiveness from the US Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network, and disease burden estimated from population-based rates of influenza-associated hospitalizations through the Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Network. Results Influenza vaccination prevented an estimated 4.4 million (95%UI, 3.4 million–7.1 million) illnesses, 2.3 million (95%UI, 1.8 million–3.8 million) medical visits, 58 000 (95%UI, 30 000–156 000) hospitalizations, and 3500 (95%UI, 1000–13 000) deaths due to influenza viruses during the US 2018–2019 influenza season. Vaccination prevented 14% of projected hospitalizations associated with A(H1N1)pdm09 overall and 43% among children aged 6 months–4 years. Conclusions Influenza vaccination averted substantial influenza-associated disease including hospitalizations and deaths in the United States, primarily due to effectiveness against A(H1N1)pdm09. Our findings underscore the value of influenza vaccination, highlighting that vaccines measurably decrease illness and associated healthcare utilization even in a season in which a vaccine component does not match to a circulating virus.

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Effectiveness of influenza vaccine among health care personnel in Thailand, 2018/19 season

European Journal of Public Health ◽

10.1093/eurpub/ckaa165.1096 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽

Author(s):

T Eamchotchawalit ◽

P Piyaraj ◽

P Narongdej ◽

S Charoensakulchai ◽

C Chanthowong

Keyword(s):

Health Care ◽

Influenza Vaccine ◽

Influenza Vaccination ◽

Seasonal Influenza ◽

Influenza Season ◽

Influenza Infection ◽

Vaccine Effectiveness ◽

Health Care Personnel ◽

Seasonal Influenza Vaccine ◽

Influenza Like Illness

Abstract Background Influenza vaccination is the most effective way of preventing influenza infections and it is recommended for the entire health care personnel in Thailand. However, the evidence of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) among health care personnel is lacking in Thailand. The objective of this study was to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) against laboratory confirmed medically attended influenza illness for the 2018/9 season among health care personnel who at risk for influenza infection in Bangkok, the capital of Thailand. Methods Throat swab specimens were collected from patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) presenting to outpatient clinics and tested for influenza virus by RT-PCR, between October 2018 and September 2019. A test-negative case-control design was used to estimate influenza VE against medically-attended laboratory-confirmed influenza in outpatient settings. Cases were influenza-like illness (ILI) patients who tested positive for influenza, and controls were influenza negative patients. Results During the 2018/19 season 373 samples were collected; 57 (15.3%) were positive for influenza, 70.2% A un-subtyped and 29.8% B. Adjusted VE against all influenza viruses for this influenza season was -31.7% (95% confidence interval (CI): -40.2 to 66.4), against influenza A un-subtyped, it was 43.9% (95% CI: -30.6 to 75.9) and against influenza B, it was 52.0% (95% CI: (-73.9 to 86.8). Conclusions The seasonal influenza vaccine was moderately effective against medically attended lab-confirmed influenza infection in health care personnel in Bangkok, Thailand in the 2018-19 influenza season. Key messages The seasonal influenza vaccine was moderately effective against medically attended lab-confirmed influenza infection in health care personnel in Bangkok. Increasing seasonal influenza vaccination among health care personnel in Thailand may decrease medically attended influenza-associated ILI cases in this population.

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Rapid assessment of influenza vaccine effectiveness: analysis of an internet-based cohort

Epidemiology and Infection ◽

10.1017/s0950268811001804 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 140 (7) ◽

pp. 1309-1315 ◽

Cited By ~ 20

Author(s):

K. T. D. EAMES ◽

E. BROOKS-POLLOCK ◽

D. PAOLOTTI ◽

M. PEROSA ◽

C. GIOANNINI ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Influenza Vaccine ◽

Pandemic Influenza ◽

Seasonal Influenza ◽

Influenza Season ◽

Rapid Assessment ◽

Vaccine Effectiveness ◽

Influenza Vaccines ◽

Seasonal Influenza Vaccine ◽

Effectiveness Analysis ◽

Self Reports

SUMMARYThe effectiveness of influenza vaccination programmes is seldom known during an epidemic. We developed an internet-based system to record influenza-like symptoms and response to infection in a participating cohort. Using self-reports of influenza-like symptoms and of influenza vaccine history and uptake, we estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) without the need for individuals to seek healthcare. We found that vaccination with the 2010 seasonal influenza vaccine was significantly protective against influenza-like illness (ILI) during the 2010–2011 influenza season (VE 52%, 95% CI 27–68). VE for individuals who received both the 2010 seasonal and 2009 pandemic influenza vaccines was 59% (95% CI 27–77), slightly higher than VE for those vaccinated in 2010 alone (VE 46%, 95% CI 9–68). Vaccinated individuals with ILI reported taking less time off work than unvaccinated individuals with ILI (3·4 days vs. 5·3 days, P<0·001).

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Evaluating the Effectiveness of Influenza Vaccine in People With At-Risk Medical Conditions: A Test-Negative Design Case-Control Study for the Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness II (SIVE II) Project

SSRN Electronic Journal ◽

10.2139/ssrn.3716865 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Eleftheria Vasileiou ◽

Tanya Englishby ◽

Kimberley Kavanagh ◽

Chris Robertson ◽

Nazir Lone ◽

...

Keyword(s):

At Risk ◽

Influenza Vaccine ◽

Seasonal Influenza ◽

Case Control Study ◽

Case Control ◽

Vaccine Effectiveness ◽

Medical Conditions ◽

Seasonal Influenza Vaccine ◽

Design Case ◽

Control Study

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Early estimates of seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness in Europe, 2010/11: I-MOVE, a multicentre case–control study

Eurosurveillance ◽

10.2807/ese.16.11.19818-en ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 16 (11) ◽

Cited By ~ 23

Author(s):

E Kissling ◽

M Valenciano ◽

Collective I-MOVE case–control studies team

Keyword(s):

Influenza Vaccine ◽

Seasonal Influenza ◽

Case Control Study ◽

Case Control ◽

Vaccine Effectiveness ◽

Seasonal Influenza Vaccine ◽

Binary File ◽

Control Study

Binary file ES_Abstracts_Final_ECDC.txt matches

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Seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates: Development of a parsimonious case test negative model using a causal approach

Vaccine ◽

10.1016/j.vaccine.2016.01.002 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 34 (8) ◽

pp. 1070-1076 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

C.R. Lane ◽

K.S. Carville ◽

N. Pierse ◽

H.A. Kelly

Keyword(s):

Influenza Vaccine ◽

Seasonal Influenza ◽

Vaccine Effectiveness ◽

Seasonal Influenza Vaccine ◽

Causal Approach

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Safety and immunogenicity of a 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 vaccine when administered alone or simultaneously with the seasonal influenza vaccine for the 2009–10 influenza season: a multicentre, randomised controlled trial

Yearbook of Pediatrics ◽

10.1016/s0084-3954(10)79771-2 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 2011 ◽

pp. 272-274

Author(s):

J.A. Stockman

Keyword(s):

Randomised Controlled Trial ◽

Influenza Vaccine ◽

Influenza A ◽

Seasonal Influenza ◽

Influenza Season ◽

Controlled Trial ◽

H1n1 Vaccine ◽

Seasonal Influenza Vaccine ◽

Influenza A H1n1 ◽

Randomised Controlled

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Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness among Children Aged 6 to 59 Months in Southern China

PLoS ONE ◽

10.1371/journal.pone.0030424 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

pp. e30424 ◽

Cited By ~ 18

Author(s):

Zhicong Yang ◽

Zhiqiang Dong ◽

Chuanxi Fu

Keyword(s):

Influenza Vaccine ◽

Seasonal Influenza ◽

Southern China ◽

Vaccine Effectiveness ◽

Seasonal Influenza Vaccine

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2741. Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Timing in Children and Adults Hospitalized with Influenza in the United States, FluSurv-NET, 2013–2017

Open Forum Infectious Diseases ◽

10.1093/ofid/ofz360.2418 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 6 (Supplement_2) ◽

pp. S964-S965

Author(s):

Julia C Haston ◽

Shikha Garg ◽

Angela P Campbell ◽

Jill Ferdinands ◽

Alissa O’Halloran ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Influenza Vaccine ◽

Seasonal Influenza ◽

Patient Characteristics ◽

Risk Groups ◽

The United States ◽

Vaccine Effectiveness ◽

Chi Square ◽

Surveillance Network ◽

Seasonal Influenza Vaccine ◽

Hispanic Patients

Abstract Background Seasonal influenza vaccine may attenuate disease severity among people infected with influenza despite vaccination, but vaccine effectiveness may decrease with increasing time between vaccination and infection. Patient characteristics may play a role in the timing of vaccine receipt. Methods We used data from the Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Network (FluSurv-NET) and included patients ≥ 9 years hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed influenza during October 1–April 30 of influenza seasons 2013–2014 through 2016–2017 who received seasonal influenza vaccine ≥ 14 days prior to admission. Vaccine history was obtained from vaccine registries, medical charts, and patient interviews. We defined “early vaccination” as vaccine receipt before October 15 and “late vaccination” as receipt after (date selected using typical season onset and median vaccination dates). Early and late groups were compared using Chi-square or Fisher exact tests. Results Among 21,751 vaccinated patients, 61% received vaccine before October 15, and distribution of vaccination date was similar across seasons (figure). Vaccination occurred earlier with increasing age (45% were vaccinated early among those 9–17 years but 65% in those ≥ 80 years, P < 0.01). White non-Hispanic patients were more likely to receive vaccine early compared with black non-Hispanic and Hispanic patients (63% vs. 55% and 54%; P < 0.01). Those with metabolic disorders, cardiovascular disease, kidney disease, and cancer were vaccinated earlier whereas those with HIV and liver disease were vaccinated later. Vaccine timing also varied by state (P < 0.01) but not by sex. Conclusion Among influenza-vaccinated older children and adults hospitalized with influenza, older age, white race, and certain medical conditions were associated with early receipt of influenza vaccination in unadjusted analysis. This may be due to frequent healthcare encounters and targeted public health strategies in high-risk groups. Understanding how timing of vaccine receipt varies among populations can provide insights into variables that must be controlled for in studying possible vaccine effectiveness waning and attenuation of disease among those who are infected despite vaccination. Disclosures All authors: No reported disclosures.

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