A Test of Income Smoothing Using Pseudo Fiscal Years

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dirk E. Black ◽  
Spencer R. Pierce ◽  
Wayne B. Thomas
Keyword(s):  
Analyst Forecasts ◽  
Managerial Incentives ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Income Smoothing ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Integral Approach ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Estimation Errors ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Earnings Volatility

The purpose of our study is to further understand managerial incentives that affect the volatility of reported earnings. Prior research suggests that the volatility of fourth-quarter earnings may be affected by the integral approach to accounting (i.e., “settling up” of accrual estimation errors in the first three quarters of the fiscal year) or earnings management to meet certain reporting objectives (e.g., analyst forecasts). We suggest that another factor affecting fourth-quarter earnings is managers’ intentional smoothing of fiscal-year earnings. For each firm, we create pseudo-year earnings using four consecutive quarters other than the four quarters of the reported fiscal year. We then compare the earnings volatility of pseudo years to the earnings volatility of the firm’s own reported fiscal year. We find evidence consistent with fourth-quarter accruals reflecting managerial incentives to smooth fiscal-year earnings. This conclusion is validated by several cross-sectional tests, the pattern in quarterly cash flows and accruals, and several robustness tests. Overall, we contribute to the literature exploring alternative explanations for the differential volatility of fiscal-year and fourth-quarter earnings. This paper was accepted by Brian Bushee, accounting.

scholarly journals Does Income Smoothing Improve Earnings Informativeness?

2006 ◽  
Vol 81 (1) ◽  
pp. 251-270 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer W. Tucker ◽  
Paul A. Zarowin
Keyword(s):  
Private Information ◽  
Information Search ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Income Smoothing ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Future Earnings ◽  
Earnings Information ◽  
Size Growth

This paper uses a new approach to examine whether income smoothing garbles earnings information or improves the informativeness of past and current earnings about future earnings and cash flows. We measure income smoothing by the negative correlation of a firm's change in discretionary accruals with its change in premanaged earnings. Using the approach of Collins et al. (1994), we find that the change in the current stock price of higher-smoothing firms contains more information about their future earnings than does the change in the stock price of lower-smoothing firms. This result is robust to decomposing earnings into cash flows and accruals and to controlling for firm size, growth, future earnings variability, private information search activities, and cross-sectional correlations.

Toward an optimal hedging strategy considering earnings volatility through fair value accounted financial derivatives

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 310-327
Author(s):  
Eva Marie Ebach ◽  
Michael Hertel ◽  
Andreas Lindermeir ◽  
Timm Tränkler
Keyword(s):  
Fair Value ◽  
Income Smoothing ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Financial Industry ◽  
Fair Value Accounting ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Earnings Volatility ◽  
Market Values ◽  
Optimal Hedging

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to determine a financial institution's optimal hedging degree under consideration of costly earnings volatility induced by fair value accounted derivatives. The discussion on the adoption of fair value accounting in the financial industry has been rather controversial in recent years. Under this accounting regime, the change in market values of specific assets must be considered as profit or loss. Critics argue that fair value accounting induces higher earnings volatility compared to historical cost accounting and, therefore, may initiate a downward spiral during recessions. Thus, increased earnings volatility induces costs, which can be explained by disappointed capital market expectations. Consequently, in general, a lowering of earnings volatility will be rewarded. Consistent with this theoretical finding, empirical research provides strong evidence that companies pursue income smoothing to reduce earnings volatility. In contrast to industrial corporations, financial institutions may easily reduce their earnings volatility by engaging in additional hedging activities. However, more intense hedging usually reduces expected profits. Design/methodology/approach Based on a research project initiated by a large German bank, this study quantitatively models the trade-off between the (utility of) costs of earnings volatility and the reduction of profit potential through additional hedging. Findings By conducting sensitivity analyses and simulations of the crucial factors of the trade-off, we examine relevant causal relationships to obtain first indications about the economic benefits of income smoothing. Originality/value To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to develop an optimization model that supports decision-making by attempting to determine an optimal (additional) hedging degree considering the costs induced by earnings volatility.

scholarly journals The Quality of Accruals and Earnings: The Role of Accrual Estimation Errors

2002 ◽  
Vol 77 (s-1) ◽  
pp. 35-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patricia M. Dechow ◽  
Ilia D. Dichev
Keyword(s):  
Estimation Error ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Empirical Measure ◽  
Earnings Persistence ◽  
Working Capital ◽  
Estimation Errors ◽  
Accrual Quality ◽  
Flows Over Time

This paper suggests a new measure of one aspect of the quality of working capital accruals and earnings. One role of accruals is to shift or adjust the recognition of cash flows over time so that the adjusted numbers (earnings) better measure firm performance. However, accruals require assumptions and estimates of future cash flows. We argue that the quality of accruals and earnings is decreasing in the magnitude of estimation error in accruals. We derive an empirical measure of accrual quality as the residuals from firm-specific regressions of changes in working capital on past, present, and future operating cash flows. We document that observable firm characteristics can be used as instruments for accrual quality (e.g., volatility of accruals and volatility of earnings). Finally, we show that our measure of accrual quality is positively related to earnings persistence.

Building resilience in retail supply chains: Lessons learned from COVID-19 and future pathways

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Atif Saleem Butt
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Supply Chains ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis study explores the countermeasures taken by retailers to mitigate the effects of COVID-19 on supply chain disruptions.Design/methodology/approachThis research uses a multiple case study approach and undertakes 36 semi-structured interviews with senior management of the four largest retailers of the United Arab Emirates. The respondents were designated at different positions such as Vice President, Director and Project Manager.FindingsResults reveal that retailers are employing six countermeasures to mitigate the effects of COVID-19 on supply chains. Particularly, retailers are securing required demand, preserving cash flows, redirecting inventory, adding capacity to their distribution centres, becoming more flexible with their direct or third-party logistics provider and finally widening delivery options for their suppliers to mitigate the impact of COVID-19.Research limitations/implicationsThis study has some limitations. First, the results of this study cannot be generalized to a broader population as it attempts to build an initial theory. Second, this study uses a cross-sectional approach to explore the countermeasures employed by retailing firms to mitigate the effects of COVID-19.Originality/valueA notable weakness in a supply chain disruption literature is an unfulfilled need for research examining the strategies employed by retailers to respond to/address the challenges posed by COVID-19. Our study fills this gap.

Managing Earnings Using Classification Shifting: Evidence from Quarterly Special Items

2010 ◽  
Vol 85 (4) ◽  
pp. 1303-1323 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yun Fan ◽  
Abhijit Barua ◽  
William M. Cready ◽  
Wayne B. Thomas
Keyword(s):  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Positive Relation ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Earnings Expectations ◽  
Special Items ◽  
The Core ◽  
Classification Shifting ◽  
Earnings Benchmarks ◽  
Core Earnings

ABSTRACT: McVay (2006) concludes that managers opportunistically shift core expenses to special items to inflate current core earnings, resulting in a positive relation between unexpected core earnings and income-decreasing special items. However, she further notes that this relation disappears when contemporaneous accruals are dropped from the core earnings expectations model. McVay (2006) calls for research to improve the core earnings expectations model and to provide additional cross-sectional tests of classification shifting. Using a core earnings expectations model that is not dependent on accrual special items, we show that classification shifting is more likely in the fourth quarter than in interim quarters. We also find more evidence of classification shifting when the ability of managers to manipulate accruals appears to be constrained and in meeting a range of earnings benchmarks. Overall, our evidence provides broad support for McVay’s (2006) conclusion that managers engage in classification shifting. Our study also sheds new understanding of the conditions under which managers are more likely to employ classification shifting.

New Evidence on Earnings Volatility in Survey and Administrative Data

2018 ◽  
Vol 108 ◽  
pp. 287-291 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael D. Carr ◽  
Emily E. Wiemers
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Administrative Data ◽  
Panel Study ◽  
Program Participation ◽  
Income Dynamics ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Earnings Volatility ◽  
Apparent Inconsistency ◽  
New Evidence

Despite the rise in cross-sectional inequality since the late 1990s, there is little consensus on trends in earnings volatility during this period. Using consistent samples and methods in administrative earnings data matched to the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP GSF) and survey data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), we examine earnings volatility for men from 1978 through 2011. In contrast to the apparent inconsistency in trends across administrative and survey data in the existing literature, we find recent increases in volatility in the SIPP GSF and the PSID, though increases are larger in the PSID.

scholarly journals DOES CORPORATE GOVERNANCE PREDICT FIRM PROFITABILITY? AN EMPIRICAL STUDY IN OMAN

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 161-177
Author(s):  
Essia Ahmed ◽  
Tariq Alabdullah ◽  
Mohammed Thottoli ◽  
Eny Maryanti
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Governance ◽  
Audit Committee ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Annual Reports ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Financial Firms ◽  
Firm Profitability ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Practical Implications

ABSTRACT Purpose — This research aims to test whether corporate governance (CG) predicts firm profitability in a sample of firms listed in the financial mark in Oman. Design/methodology/approach — This research analyses cross-sectional data across 50 non-financial firms. This study used annual reports for the fiscal year 2018 to analyze the impact of CG on firm profitability. This work tested its hypotheses and analyzing them via the Partial Least Squares (PLS). Findings — The result of this research indicates that a positive link between all the predictors is found: board size, ownership, gender, and audit committee, and firm profitability (financial performance). Practical Implications — Originality/value — This research is the first of its kind via examining the link between this set of predictors of (CG) and firm performance in the Omani context. The present study provides empirical evidence for the researchers, policymakers, and other stakeholders.

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