scholarly journals Reinforcement with Fading Memories

2020 ◽  
Vol 45 (4) ◽  
pp. 1258-1288 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kuang Xu ◽  
Se-Young Yun
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Steady State ◽  
Closed Form ◽  
Memory Span ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Sequential Action ◽  
Reward Rate ◽  
Memory Decay ◽  
The One

We study the effect of imperfect memory on decision making in the context of a stochastic sequential action-reward problem. An agent chooses a sequence of actions, which generate discrete rewards at different rates. She is allowed to make new choices at rate β, whereas past rewards disappear from her memory at rate μ. We focus on a family of decision rules where the agent makes a new choice by randomly selecting an action with a probability approximately proportional to the amount of past rewards associated with each action in her memory. We provide closed form formulas for the agent’s steady-state choice distribution in the regime where the memory span is large ([Formula: see text]) and show that the agent’s success critically depends on how quickly she updates her choices relative to the speed of memory decay. If [Formula: see text], the agent almost always chooses the best action (that is, the one with the highest reward rate). Conversely, if [Formula: see text], the agent chooses an action with a probability roughly proportional to its reward rate.

scholarly journals Rational and Adaptive Playing

2000 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rainer Hegselmann ◽  
Andreas Flache
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Human Behaviour ◽  
The Other ◽  
Reinforcement Mechanism ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
The One ◽  
Strategic Rationality ◽  
Micro Foundations ◽  
Simple Models

AbstractIn this paper we compare two micro foundations for modelling human behaviour and decision making. We focus on perfect strategic rationality on the one hand and a simple reinforcement mechanism on the other hand. Iterated prisoner’s dilemmas serve as the play ground for the comparison. The main lesson of our analysis is that in the space of all possible 2 × 2 PDs different micro foundations do matter. This suggests that researchers can not safely rely on the assumption that implementing simple models of decision making will yield the same results that may be obtained when more sophisticated decision rules are built into the agents.

scholarly journals Decision-Making Rules and the Influence of Memory Data

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1396
Author(s):  
Vaclav Beran ◽  
Marek Teichmann ◽  
Frantisek Kuda
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Nonlinear Phenomena ◽  
Time Space ◽  
Dynamic View ◽  
Development Risks ◽  
The One ◽  
The Right

The problems that decision-makers face can escalate under imbalances, turbulent development, risks, uncertainties, disasters, and other influences. The development of processes in technical and economic structures is generally considered complex and chaotic, and it usually expands into innumerable dynamic influences. The paper focuses on the evaluation of the decision criteria choice structure, such as the factual cause of the consequences (e.g., future threats, opportunities, chances, occasion). It offers a graphical vision of the future forecast. It draws attention to prevention and prophylaxis versus criterion-generated time–space (TS). The paper deals with the question: Is it possible to choose and recommend the right time and place of process activities? The paper formulates a positive answer and illustrates a range of consequences. Developed activities (investment, production, etc.) take place in a defined TS; over time, they create new time-series states and expand the space by defining processes as a time series of activities. In a broader context, the article deals with the issue of the lifecycle of decision rules (dynamic proposal of opportunities) as the first step of decision making, i.e., the decision about the existence of opportunity. On the one hand, it respects static applications based on equilibrium states, while on the other hand, it draws attention to the need for a dynamic view of turbulent, dynamic, chaotic, and nonlinear phenomena.

Discarding optimality: Throwing out the baby with the bathwater?

2018 ◽  
Vol 41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Simen ◽  
Fuat Balcı
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Perceptual Decision Making ◽  
Reward Rate ◽  
Perceptual Decision ◽  
Standard Observer ◽  
Rate Maximization ◽  
Reward Rate Maximization ◽  
Descriptive Standard ◽  
Observer Model

AbstractRahnev & Denison (R&D) argue against normative theories and in favor of a more descriptive “standard observer model” of perceptual decision making. We agree with the authors in many respects, but we argue that optimality (specifically, reward-rate maximization) has proved demonstrably useful as a hypothesis, contrary to the authors’ claims.

Comparative study on e-bikes’ decision-making behaviors under flashing green and green countdown

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Haoyang Meng ◽  
Sheng Dong ◽  
Jibiao Zhou ◽  
Shuichao Zhang ◽  
Zhenjiang Li
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Critical Issue ◽  
Trajectory Data ◽  
Decision Points ◽  
Binary Logit ◽  
The One ◽  
Common Signal ◽  
And Function ◽  
Decision Behaviors ◽  
Stop Line

Green flash light (FG) and green countdown (GC) are the two most common signal formats applied in green-red transition that provides drivers additional alert before termination of green phase. Due to their importance and function in stop-pass decision-making process, proper use of them has become a critical issue to greatly improve the safety and efficiency of signalized intersections. Gradually e-bike riders have become more important commuters in China, however, the influence of FG or GC on them is not clear yet and need pay more attention to it. This study chooses two almost identical intersections to obtain highly accurate trajectory data of e-bike riders to study their decision-making behaviors under FG or GC. The e-bike riders’ behavior is classified into four categories and is to identify their stop-pass decision points using the acceleration trend. Two binary-logit models were built to predict the stop–pass decision behaviors for the different e-bike rider groups, explaining that the potential time to the stop-line is the dominant independent factor of the different behaviors of GC and FG. Furthermore empirical analysis of decision points indicated that GC provides the earlier stop-pass decision point and longer decision making duration on the one side while results in more complexity of decision making and greater risk of stop-line crossing than FG on the other side.

scholarly journals AN INDUSTRY QUESTION: THE ULTIMATE AND ONE-YEAR RESERVING UNCERTAINTY FOR DIFFERENT NON-LIFE RESERVING METHODOLOGIES

2014 ◽  
Vol 44 (3) ◽  
pp. 495-499 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Dal Moro ◽  
Joseph Lo
Keyword(s):  
Closed Form ◽  
Internal Models ◽  
Cape Cod ◽  
Best Estimate ◽  
To Come ◽  
Chain Ladder ◽  
One Year ◽  
The One ◽  
Best Estimates

AbstractIn the industry, generally, reserving actuaries use a mix of reserving methods to derive their best estimates. On the basis of the best estimate, Solvency 2 requires the use of a one-year volatility of the reserves. When internal models are used, such one-year volatility has to be provided by the reserving actuaries. Due to the lack of closed-form formulas for the one-year volatility of Bornhuetter-Ferguson, Cape-Cod and Benktander-Hovinen, reserving actuaries have limited possibilities to estimate such volatility apart from scaling from tractable models, which are based on other reserving methods. However, such scaling is technically difficult to justify cleanly and awkward to interact with. The challenge described in this editorial is therefore to come up with similar models like those of Mack or Merz-Wüthrich for the chain ladder, but applicable to Bornhuetter-Ferguson, mix Chain-Ladder and Bornhuetter-Ferguson, potentially Cape-Cod and Benktander-Hovinen — and their mixtures.

The role of agency in project initiation decisions

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 518-535 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Mullaly
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Personal Characteristics ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Organizational Dynamics ◽  
Substantive Theory ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Board Level

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of decision rules and agency in supporting project initiation decisions, and the influences of agency on decision-making effectiveness. Design/methodology/approach – The study this paper is based upon used grounded theory methodology, and sought to understand the influences of individual decision makers on project initiation decisions within organizations. Data collection involved 28 participants who were involved in project initiation decisions within their organizations, who discussed the process of project initiation in their organization and their role within that process. Findings – The study demonstrates that the overall effectiveness of project initiation decisions is a product of agency, process effectiveness or rule effectiveness. The employment of agency can have a direct influence on decision-making effectiveness, it can compensate for organizational inadequacies of a process or political nature, and it can be constrained in the evidence of formal and effective organizational practices. Research limitations/implications – While agency was recognized by all participants, there are clearly circumstances where actors perceive the ability to exercise agency to be externally constrained. The study is exploratory, contributing to the development of substantive theory. Theory testing as well as a more in-depth investigation of the underlying drivers of agency would be valuable. Practical implications – The study provides executives and individuals supporting the initiation of projects with insights on how to effectively influence the effectiveness of project initiation decisions, and the degree to which personal characteristics influence organizational dynamics. Originality/value – Most discussions of agency has been framed the subject as an executive- or board-level phenomenon. The current study demonstrates that agency is in fact being perceived and operationalized at all levels. Those demonstrating agency in the majority of instances in this study do so in exercising stewardship behaviours. This has important implications for how agency is perceived by executives, and by how agency is exercised by actors at all levels of the organization.

Decision rules, escalation of commitment and sensitivity to framing in group decision-making

2016 ◽  
Vol 54 (7) ◽  
pp. 1649-1668 ◽  
Author(s):  
Petru Lucian Curseu ◽  
Sandra G. L. Schruijer ◽  
Oana Catalina Fodor
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Rule ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Escalation Of Commitment ◽  
Group Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Collaborative Decision

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to test the influence of collaborative and consultative decision rules on groups’ sensitivity to framing effect (FE) and escalation of commitment (EOC). Design/methodology/approach – In an experimental study (using a sample of 233 professionals with project management experience), the authors test the effects of collaborative and consultative decision rules on groups’ sensitivity to EOC and FE. The authors use four group decision-making tasks to evaluate decision consistency across gain/loss framed decision situations and six decision tasks to evaluate EOC for money as well as time as resources previously invested in the initial decisions. Findings – The results show that the collaborative decision rule increases sensitivity to EOC when financial resources are involved and decreases sensitivity to EOC when time is of essence. Moreover, the authors show that the collaborative decision rule decreases sensitivity to FE in group decision making. Research limitations/implications – The results have important implications for group rationality as an emergent group level competence by extending the insights concerning the impact of decision rules on emergent group level cognitive competencies. Due to the experimental nature of the design, the authors can probe the causal relations between the investigated variables, yet the authors cannot generalize the results to other settings. Practical implications – Managers can use the insights of this study in order to optimize the functioning of decision-making groups and to reduce their sensitivity to FEs and EOC. Originality/value – The study extends the research on group rationality and it is one of the few experimental attempts used to understand the role of decision rules on emergent group level rationality.

Author reply: Empathy Does Provide Rational Support for Decisions. But Is It the Right Decision?

2012 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 96-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fritz Breithaupt
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Rational Decision ◽  
Author Reply ◽  
Rational Decision Making ◽  
Rational Support ◽  
The One ◽  
The Right

This article examines the relation of empathy and rational judgment. When people observe a conflict most are quick to side with one of the parties. Once a side has been taken, empathy with that party further solidifies this choice. Hence, it will be suggested that empathy is not neutral to judgment and rational decision-making. This does not mean, however, that the one who empathizes will necessarily have made the best choice.

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