2. The Economics of the CPTPP and RCEP: Asia Pacific Trade Agreements without the United States

Author(s):  
Peter A. Petri ◽  
Michael G. Plummer ◽  
Shujiro Urata ◽  
Fan Zhai
2017 ◽  
Vol 111 ◽  
pp. 92-95
Author(s):  
Kathleen Claussen

These remarks are derived from a forthcoming work considering the future of international trade law. Compared with most features of the international legal system, the regional and bilateral trade law system is in the early stages of its evolution. For example, the United States is a party to fourteen free trade agreements currently in force, all but two of which have entered into force since 2000. The recent proliferation of agreements, particularly bilateral and regional agreements, is not unique to the United States. The European Union recently concluded trade agreement negotiations with Canada, Singapore, and Vietnam to add to its twenty-seven agreements in force and is negotiating approximately ten additional bilateral or multilateral agreements. In the Asia-Pacific Region, the number of regional and bilateral free trade agreements has grown exponentially since the conclusion of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Free Trade Area of 1992. At that time, the region counted five such agreements in force. Today, the number totals 140 with another seventy-nine under negotiation or awaiting entry into force. The People's Republic of China is negotiating half a dozen bilateral trade agreements at present to top off the sixteen already in effect. India likewise is engaged in at least ten trade agreement negotiations. The World Trade Organization (WTO) reports 267 agreements of this sort in force among its members as of July 1, 2016.


Significance The Obama administration faces an uphill fight in Congress to secure enough votes for TPP ratification, given Democratic suspicions of free trade agreements, Republican animus for the White House and the frustrations of key industry groups in the United States. The United States can in effect veto the TPP's international implementation, while the White House's 'Asia pivot' policy relies partly on firmer trade ties with East and South-east Asia. Impacts The battle over TPP will likely divert political capital and US government resources from the TTIP negotiations. China may benefit diplomatically in the Asia-Pacific if the United States blocks TPP from coming into force. The trade debate may spill over to greater US legislative attention on currency manipulation issues ahead of 2017.


2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ralph A. Cossa ◽  
Brad Glosserman ◽  
Michael A. McDevitt ◽  
Nirav Patel ◽  
James Przystup ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
SABURO OKITA

The Asia-Pacific countries achieved rapid economic growth with the flying-goose model in the 1980s, growth buttressed by export-oriented development strategies and the policy culture in these countries. While Japan and the other Asia-Pacific countries still have strong growth potential, many problems remain, including trade imbalances with the United States and the rise of protectionism there, the Asia-Pacific economies' vulnerability, and the need to consolidate the infrastructure for growth. It is imperative that Japan contribute to the development of the region by responding effectively to these issues and that it strengthen the international trading arrangements by promoting Asia-Pacific cooperation premised on openness. Given the region's great internal diversity, Asia-Pacific economic cooperation can well serve as a model for international economic coordination.


2006 ◽  
Vol 96 (3) ◽  
pp. 896-914 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nuno Limão

Most countries are members of preferential trade agreements (PTAs). The effect of these agreements has attracted much interest and raised the question of whether PTAs promote or slow multilateral trade liberalization, i.e., whether they are a “building block” or “stumbling block” to multilateral liberalization. Despite this long-standing concern with PTAs and the lack of theoretical consensus, there is no systematic evidence on whether they are actually a stumbling block to multilateral liberalization. We use detailed data on U.S. multilateral tariffs to provide the first systematic evidence that the direct effect of PTAs was to generate a stumbling block to its MTL. We also provide evidence of reciprocity in multilateral tariff reductions.


2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (10) ◽  
pp. 149-166
Author(s):  
Dmitry V. Gordienko ◽  

The paper examines the interests of Russia, the United States and China in the regions of the world and identifies the priorities of Russia's activities in Europe, Central Asia and the Caucasus, the Asia-Pacific region, the Arctic, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America, their comparative assessment with the interests of the United States and China. An approach to assessing the impact of possible consequences of the activities of the United States and China on the realization of Russia's interests is proposed. This makes it possible to identify the priorities of the policy of the Russian Federation in various regions of the world. The results of the analysis can be used to substantiate recommendations to the military-political leadership of our country. It is concluded that the discrepancy between the interests of the United States and China is important for the implementation of the current economic and military policy of the Russian Federation.


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