scholarly journals Risk spillover networks in financial system based on information theory

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. e0252601
Author(s):  
Weibo Li ◽  
Wei Liu ◽  
Lei Wu ◽  
Xue Guo

Since the financial system has illustrated an increasingly prominent characteristic of inextricable connections, information theory is gradually utilized to study the financial system. By collecting the daily data of industry index (2005-2020) and region index (2012-2020) listed in China as samples, this paper applies an innovative measure named partial mutual information on mixed embedding to generate directed networks. Based on the analysis of nonlinear relationships among sectors, this paper realizes the accurate construction of “time-varying” financial network from the perspective of risk spillover. The results are presented as follow: (1) interactions can be better understood through the nonlinear networks among distinct sectors, and sectors in the networks could be classified into different types according to their topological properties connected to risk spillover; (2) in the rising stage, information is transmitted rapidly in the network, so the risk is fast diffused and absorbed; (3) in the declining stage, the network topology is more complex and panic sentiments have long term impact leading to more connections; (4) The US market, Japan market and Hongkong market have significant affect on China’s market. The results suggest that this nonlinear measure is an effective approach to develop financial networks and explore the mechanism of risk spillover.

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 294-299 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura-Marie Töpfer

The commentaries on this forum’s anchor article, ‘China’s Integration into the Global Financial System: Toward a State-led Conception of Global Financial Networks’, examine how the state is shaping global financial networks (GFNs). In response to these reviews, this article discusses three common themes that bind the different commentaries: (1) different types of agency, power, and the rise of new actors; (2) the methodology behind studying state-led GFNs; and (3) the structural question of ‘Chinese exceptionalism’ as a mode of capitalism. Overall, this article affirms that the state remains central to our understanding of competitive hierarchies and firm behavior in financial networks.


2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 195-221 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachael K. Hinkle ◽  
Michael J. Nelson

Abstract Dissenting opinions are common in the US Supreme Court even though they take time and effort, risk infuriating colleagues, and have no precedential value. In spite of these drawbacks, dissents can potentially contribute to future legal development. We theorize that dissenting justices who use more memorable language are more successful in achieving such long-term impact. To test this theory, we amass an original dataset of citations to dissenting opinions extracted directly from majority opinion text. We further leverage these texts to build an algorithm that quantifies the distinctiveness of dissenting language within a dynamic context. Our results indicate that dissents using more negative emotion and more distinctive words are cited more in future majority opinions. These results contribute to our understanding of how language can influence long-term policy development.


Author(s):  
Robert Orlikoff ◽  
Dobrinka Georgieva

Several collaborative projects between South-West University in Blagoevgrad, Bulgaria, and 8 universities in the USA have worked well to improve the overall competence of students in speech-language pathology programs and practicing clinicians to better meet the needs of individuals with fluency and voice disorders. The US Fulbright Senior Specialist and EU Erasmus+ exchange programs serve as effective instruments that provide systemic and long-term impact supporting innovation and fostering contemporary teaching methods. These international projects prepare students and faculty succeed in a global, multicultural society, and in doing so, advance speech-language pathology as an evidence-based allied health science discipline.


2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (7) ◽  
pp. 171-178
Author(s):  
V. V. ZAGARSKIKH ◽  
◽  
E. V. KARANINA ◽  

The article analyzes long-term economic patterns, examines the reasons for international integration and the creation of a new world economic order. Some reasons for the destabilization of the financial system of the planet are revealed, including the depreciation of the US dollar and the redistribution of property rights through the financial market. The analysis of the dollar financial system in the modern conditions of hybrid war is given, possible types of a new world economic structure, solutions for Russia and the world as a whole to create an economic security zone are considered. The conclusion is made about the need for de-dollarization of mutual trade and joint investments.


2018 ◽  
Vol 48 (190) ◽  
pp. 91-114
Author(s):  
Trevor Evans

The current economic situation in the United States can be seen as the result of three factors. The first is the long-term shift to a neo-liberal order. The second factor is the US business cycle. Periods of economic expansion in the 1980s, the 1990s and the early 2000s were each brought to an end by increasingly severe crises, the most recent of which in 2007-2009 came perilously close to causing a collapse of the US financial system. The most recent expansion, which began in mid-2009, has been unusually weak, and is already relatively long by comparison with other recent expansions.The third factor is the presidency of Donald Trump which began in January 2017. Despite a populist rhetoric and the dependence of his electoral victory on mobilising white working-class support, in government he has pursued an unashamed series of measures which primarily benefit the very richest sectors of US society.


2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (5) ◽  
pp. 457-464
Author(s):  
Stephen Lee

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the effect on US stock, bond and real estate investment trust (REIT) prices triggered by the US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s announcement of a possible intent to unwind, or taper, quantitative easing (QE). In particular, the author assessed whether the effect of the “Taper Tantrum” was fundamental or financial on financial markets. Design/methodology/approach – The methodology used to determine whether the effect of the “Taper Tantrum” was fundamental or purely financial is that suggested by French and Roll (1986) as extended by Tuluca et al. (2003). The analysis is based on daily data for large cap stocks, small cap stocks, long-term bonds and REITs for 18 months before Ben Bernanke’s announcement and for 18 months after the announcement. Findings – The results show that the “Taper Tantrum” had a fundamental, rather than a financial effect on all asset classes, especially so for REITs. Practical implications – The author also found that in the post-taper period following Ben Bernanke’s announcement the correlation of REITs with stocks decreased compared with pre-taper period, whereas the correlation of REITS with bonds increased substantially. In other words, the “Taper Tantrum” had a profound effect on the risk/return benefits of including REITs in the US mixed-asset portfolio. Originality/value – This is the first paper to examine the effect of the “Taper Tantrum” on REITs.


2011 ◽  
Vol 45 (2) ◽  
pp. 225-238 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heng-Chih Chou ◽  
Rim Zaabar ◽  
David Wang

1992 ◽  
Vol 38 (3) ◽  
pp. 330-356 ◽  
Author(s):  
Glenn Olson

In the early 1980s Washington State developed a simulation forecast for inmate populations that was used to estimate the impact of the state's pioneering sentencing guideline initiative. This process presented forecasting challenges that occurred in three phases over a 10-year period. Different types of forecasting challenges were specific to each of the three phases. These challenges are described along two dimensions: forecast horizon and level of detail. Various combinations of horizon and detail sometimes required mutually exclusive assumptions that yielded much different results.


2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jarir Saleh ◽  
Sungpil Yoon ◽  
Kevin Choi ◽  
Lijuan Sun ◽  
Richard Snay ◽  
...  

Abstract The CORS network is a volunteer-based network of Global Positioning System reference stations located mainly in the US and its territories. We discuss the most recent comprehensive reprocessing of all GPS data collected via this network since 1996. Daily data for GPS weeks 834 through 1933 were reprocessed leading to epoch 2010.0 coordinates and velocities of 3049 stations aligned to IGS14. The updated realization of the US National Spatial Reference System derived in this work has been in use since late 2019. As a validation of the results, the derived velocity field is compared to several other solutions and to three regional geophysical and geodetic velocity models. These comparisons uncovered unstable stations which move differently than the regional kinematics around them. Once these are ignored, we estimate the horizontal and vertical stability of this updated realization to be better than ∼0.3 and ∼0.6 mm/year, respectively. We use the position residuals and estimated uncertainties from this reprocessing to derive long-term stability measures for all active stations serving longer than 3 years. These measures exposed ∼60 CORS with the poorest long-term stability, which have been consequently excluded from serving as mapping control.


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