scholarly journals Publication bias and the tourism-led growth hypothesis

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (10) ◽  
pp. e0258730
Author(s):  
Nikeel Nishkar Kumar ◽  
Arvind Patel ◽  
Ravinay Amit Chandra ◽  
Navneet Nimesh Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Publication Bias ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Practical Implication ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Multiple Methods ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

This study attempts to solve the publication bias suggested by recent review articles in the tourism-growth literature. Publication bias is the tendency to report favourable and significant results. Method and data triangulation, and the Solow-Swan model are applied. A sample from 1995 to 2018 is considered with Tonga as a case study. The approach consists of multiple methods, data frequencies, exchange rates, structural breaks, and an overall tourism index developed using principal component analysis (PCA). Consistent results across these dimensions are obtained with the PCA models. Tourism has small, positive, and statistically significant economic growth effects. Theoretically consistent values of the capital share and exchange rates are obtained. The results indicate the importance of multiple methods and the overall tourism index in assessing the tourism-growth relationship and minimising publication biases. The practical implication is the provision of robust elasticity estimates and better economic policies.

scholarly journals Impact of Project and Programme Aid on Economic Growth: A Cross Country Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 57 (2) ◽  
pp. 145-174
Author(s):  
Pervez Zamurrad Janjua ◽  
Malik Muhammad ◽  
Muhammad Usman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Method Of Moment ◽  
System Equation ◽  
Moment Estimation ◽  
Country Analysis ◽  
Procurement Reform ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of foreign aid instruments, namely Project Aid and Programme Aid, on economic growth of 27 aid-receiving countries. The study constructs a system of three equations, i.e. growth, investment and human capital. Using the Generalised Method of Moment estimation technique, the study concludes that while Project Aid has a positive and significant impact on economic growth, Programme Aid has an insignificant impact on economic growth. Additionally, the study finds that economic policies do enhance effectiveness of aid at aggregate level. Therefore, the capacity of aid-recipient countries to effectively use their resources for economic development needs due consideration. Keywords: Project Aid, Programme Aid, Economic Growth, Conditionality, Procurement Reform, System Equation Method, Generalised Method of Moment (GMM), Principal Component Analysis

scholarly journals Sustainable Local Economic Development in Tanzania: Exploring Economic Challenges in Growing the Economy

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaihula P. Bishagazi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Local Economic Development ◽  
Local Development ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Growth Center ◽  
The Government

The failure of macro-economic policies to deliver meaningful reductions in poverty and achieve basic needs in Tanzania has provoked a deep questioning of the relevance of economic growth center policies in Local Economic Development (LED). The government and development partners are increasingly shifting from the traditional top down approaches to the all-inclusive bottom up approaches for effective local development. The concept of sustainable Local Economic Development is thus examined in the context of economic activities and challenges using a case study of Shinyanga region in Tanzania. 

scholarly journals Does Export Led Growth Hypothesis Hold Under World Crisis Recovery Regime in Malaysia?

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 9
Author(s):  
Asmawi Hashim ◽  
Norimah Rambeli ◽  
Norasibah Abdul Jalil ◽  
Normala Zulkifli ◽  
Emilda Hashim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Data Series ◽  
World Crisis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

This paper examines empirically the nature of the impact of the exchange rate on import, export and economic growth in Malaysia from 2009 until 2018. The objective of this study is to investigate the long-term and short-term relationship between endogenous and exogenous variables and also to identify the effects of exchange rates on dependent variables including imports, exports and the Gross Domestic Product (DGP) that represent the productivity of the country. This study further focuses on investigating the impact or the role of export in drive the county economic growth. In achieving these objectives, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) testing procedure is used to test the presence of unit root. In order to investigate the incidence of long run relationship between the data series, the Johansen Juselius Cointegration Vector is utilized. The Granger Causality in Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) framework is employed to differentiate between short run and long run causal effects in examining the led growth determinants. The result shows that there is causality between exchange rate, import, export and GDP. Moreover, this study shows that exchange rates responded positively to import and export and negatively to GDP. The result further support for export led growth hypothesis in this study. Thus, confirm for the role of export in motivating the economic growth productivity in after World Crisis regime in year 2008. However, Malaysia must not only relay on international trade to generate income for the country. This is because Malaysia is fortunate to have survived the negative effects of the global crisis; the international trade is exposed to exchange rate instability. If Malaysia wants to succeed in international trade, it may be able to focus on food and services trade. As alternative Malaysia may focuses on agriculture sector by improving the research and development and be a champion on food supply for the world.

The tourism led growth hypothesis: the Lebanese case

2015 ◽  
Vol 70 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charbel Bassil ◽  
Mohamad Hamadeh ◽  
Nisrine Samara
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Tourism Development ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Development Economic ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Positive Shock ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to study the direction of the causality between tourism development and economic growth in Lebanon between 1995 and 2013, after taking into consideration terrorist incidents and their intensities. These are considered as exogenous shocks that affect tourism development and economic growth instantaneously and with a lag. Design/methodology/approach – To reach the objectives, the authors estimate a vector auto regressive model with exogenous variables, applying a series of unit root tests with and without structural breaks and the Granger causality test. Findings – The findings suggest a positive unidirectional causality running from tourism development to economic growth in the short run. Thus, the authors find evidence for the tourism-led growth hypothesis (TLGH) in Lebanon despite the exposure of the country to frequent terrorist incidents. The impulse response functions reveal that tourism development (economic growth) responds positively to a positive shock to economic growth (tourism development). Practical implications – The findings call for Lebanese policy makers aiming at promoting growth to design policies that encourage tourism, such as implementing tourism marketing policies and building the needed tourism infrastructure. Such policies will have positive but transitory effects on economic growth. The findings may also be useful for regional representatives of intergovernmental organizations and the offices of statistics of United Nations World Tourism Organization and the World Bank to better understand the tourism industry in Lebanon and similar countries suffering from instabilities. Originality/value – This paper contributes to the existing literature in three points: despite the importance of the tourism industry to the Lebanese economy, this topic did not receive careful attention in the literature; it takes into consideration the presence of structural breaks and possible nonlinearities in the number of tourist arrivals; and it investigates the TLGH after accounting for instability in the country.

scholarly journals Remittance-led growth hypothesis: a conceptual analysis

2013 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 342-347
Author(s):  
Kunofiwa Tsaurai
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Conceptual Analysis ◽  
Reasonable Doubt ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Framework Analysis ◽  
Integral Element ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

This research centered on the conceptual and empirical analysis of the remittance-led growth hypothesis. There exist four views with regard to the relationship between remittances and economic growth and these include the remittances-led growth, growth-led remittances, feedback view and the neutrality view. Remittance-led growth mentions that remittances inspire economic growth whilst the growth-led remittances view says that economic growth attracts more remittances into the country. The feedback view suggests that both remittances and economic growth promotes each other whilst neutrality hypothesis stipulates that there exists no relationship at all between remittances and economic growth. Majority of literature concur that remittances plays a significant role in boosting economic growth especially in developing countries. It is against this backdrop that this study focuses on conceptually and empirically analyzing the remittance-led growth hypothesis. Trend analysis between remittances and economic growth for Botswana as a case study was done using time series annual data ranging from 1980 to 2011. The literature conceptual framework analysis shows beyond any reasonable doubt that indeed remittances are an integral element of economic growth especially for developing countries. The study therefore recommends nations especially developing countries to make available the necessary infrastructure that attracts personal remittance inflows from its citizens working in other countries in order to boost economic growth

Tourism and Economic Growth: A Meta-regression Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 59 (3) ◽  
pp. 404-423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robin Nunkoo ◽  
Boopen Seetanah ◽  
Zameelah Rifkha Khan Jaffur ◽  
Paul George Warren Moraghen ◽  
Raja Vinesh Sannassee
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Publication Bias ◽  
Theory Development ◽  
Time Span ◽  
Number Of Factors ◽  
Meta Regression ◽  
Meta Regression Analysis ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

Numerous studies have focused on delineating the relationship between tourism and economic growth. In this article, we present the results of a rigorous meta-regression analysis based on 545 estimates drawn from 113 studies that empirically tested the tourism-led growth hypothesis (TLGH). The results suggest the presence of publication bias in the literature on this topic, where the majority of studies report positive and statistically significant estimates. Findings provide support for the TLGH, but they also suggest that the estimates are sensitive to a number of factors that are related to country data, specification, and estimation characteristics, and time span. Such sensitivities suggest that greater emphasis should be placed on reporting estimates of the relationship between tourism and economic growth across a variety of methodological characteristics and specification and estimation choices. The implications of the results for theory development are also discussed.

scholarly journals Pengujian Empiris Pengaruh Ketidakpastian Kebijakan Ekonomi Amerika Serikat Terhadap Dinamika Perekonomian Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 82
Author(s):  
Suwito Suwito ◽  
Siswoyo Hari Santosa ◽  
Duwi Yunitasari
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Least Square Method ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
The United States ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
The Relationship

The global economic uncertainy situation is one of the phenomena that occurs at this time. Erratic economic policies in developed countries have an impact on the economy in developing countries. This study analyzes the influence of uncertainty in US economic policy on the dynamics of the Indonesian economy. Estimates using the Ordinary Least square method are used to determine the relationship between variables. Then the data used in this study began in 1998Q1-2016Q4. The estimation results show that the dynamics of uncertainty in US economic policies have a significant effect on the Indonesian economy. EPU variables, US exchange rates, and have a significant effect on Indonesia's economic growth. This result is proven by the IRF which indicates the response from the EPU fluctuation which was responded to by the GDP variable in Indonesia. These conditions indicate that the uncertainty of the economic policies of the United States affects the performance of the Indonesian economy.

From universalism to individualism: New approaches to economic growth analysis

2019 ◽  
pp. 108-126
Author(s):  
Ivan L. Lyubimov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Structural Transformation ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Growth Analysis ◽  
Extended Period ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Adequate Account ◽  
New Approaches ◽  
Catching Up

This paper examines the evolution of academic and applied approaches to analyze the problem of economic growth since the mid-XX century. For quite an extended period of time, these views were corresponding to universalist economic policies taking no adequate account of particularities and limitations that a certain catching-up economy embodied. New approaches analyzing the problems of economic growth, on the contrary, individualize growth diagnostics, structural transformation and the organization of reforms processes for the emerging economies. We argue that individualist approaches might be potentially more effective than the universalist ones for solving the problem of slow economic growth.

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