Spatial and temporal characteristics of drought and its correlation with climate indices in Northeast China

The spatial and temporal characteristics of drought in Northeast China are investigated, using monthly meteorological data from 140 stations over the period 1970–2014. The study area was divided into three regions using hierarchical cluster analysis based on the precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was calculated for each station on 3-month and 12-month time scales. The Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test and Sen’s slope method were applied to determine the trends for annual and seasonal SPEI time series. Periodic features of drought conditions in each sub-region and possible relationship with large-scale climate patterns were respectively identified using the continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and cross wavelet transform. The results show mitigations in spring and winter droughts and a significant increasing trend in autumn drought. On the annual scale, droughts became more severe and more intense in the western regions but were mitigated in the eastern region. CWT analysis showed that droughts in Northeast China occur predominantly in 14- to 42-month or 15- to 60-month cycles. Annual and seasonal droughts have 2- to 6-year cycles over the three defined regions. Cross wavelet analysis also shows that the statistically significant influence of large-scale climate patterns (the Southern Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, and the Polar–Eurasian Pattern) on drought in Northeast China is concentrated in a 16- to 50-month period, possibly causing drought variability in the different regions. The Southern Oscillation, Polar–Eurasia pattern, and Arctic Oscillation are significantly correlated with drought on decadal scales (around 120-month period). The findings of this study will provide valuable reference for regional drought mitigation and drought prediction.

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Variability of Arctic Sea Ice Based on Quantile Regression and the Teleconnection with Large-Scale Climate Patterns

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-19-0375.1 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 33 (10) ◽

pp. 4009-4025

Author(s):

Shuyu Zhang ◽

Thian Yew Gan ◽

Andrew B. G. Bush

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Quantile Regression ◽

Large Scale ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

The Arctic ◽

Climate Indices ◽

The Pacific ◽

Arctic Sea ◽

Climate Patterns

AbstractUnder global warming, Arctic sea ice has declined significantly in recent decades, with years of extremely low sea ice occurring more frequently. Recent studies suggest that teleconnections with large-scale climate patterns could induce the observed extreme sea ice loss. In this study, a probabilistic analysis of Arctic sea ice was conducted using quantile regression analysis with covariates, including time and climate indices. From temporal trends at quantile levels from 0.01 to 0.99, Arctic sea ice shows statistically significant decreases over all quantile levels, although of different magnitudes at different quantiles. At the representative extreme quantile levels of the 5th and 95th percentiles, the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific–North American pattern (PNA) have more significant influence on Arctic sea ice than El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). Positive AO as well as positive NAO contribute to low winter sea ice, and a positive PNA contributes to low summer Arctic sea ice. If, in addition to these conditions, there is concurrently positive AMO and PDO, the sea ice decrease is amplified. Teleconnections between Arctic sea ice and the climate patterns were demonstrated through a composite analysis of the climate variables. The anomalously strong anticyclonic circulation during the years of positive AO, NAO, and PNA promotes more sea ice export through Fram Strait, resulting in excessive sea ice loss. The probabilistic analyses of the teleconnections between the Arctic sea ice and climate patterns confirm the crucial role that the climate patterns and their combinations play in overall sea ice reduction, but particularly for the low and high quantiles of sea ice concentration.

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High vs. low latitude influence on seasonal stratospheric pathways in the atmospheric model ICON

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9573 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Raphael Köhler ◽

Dörthe Handorf ◽

Ralf Jaiser ◽

Klaus Dethloff

Keyword(s):

Large Scale ◽

Arctic Oscillation ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Polar Vortex ◽

Atmospheric Model ◽

The Arctic ◽

Late Winter ◽

Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽

Enso Events ◽

Hemisphere Winter

Stratospheric pathways play an important role in connecting distant anomaly patterns to each other on seasonal timescales. As long-lived stratospheric extreme events can influence the large-scale tropospheric circulation on timescales of multiple weeks, stratospheric pathways have been identified as one of the main potential sources for subseasonal to seasonal predictability in mid-latitudes. These pathways have been shown to connect Arctic anomalies to lower latitudes and vice versa. However, there is an ongoing discussion on how strong these stratospheric pathways are and how they exactly work.&#160;In this context, we investigate two strongly discussed stratospheric pathways by analysing a suite of seasonal experiments with the atmospheric model ICON: On the one hand, the effect of El Ni&#241;o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the stratospheric polar vortex, and thus the circulation in mid and high latitudes in winter. And on the other hand, the effect of a rapidly changing Arctic on lower latitudes via the stratosphere. The former effect is simulated realistically by ICON, and the results from the ensemble simulations suggest that ENSO has an effect on the large-scale Northern Hemisphere winter circulation. The ICON experiments and the reanalysis exhibit a weakened stratospheric vortex in warm ENSO years. Furthermore, in particular in winter, warm ENSO events favour the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation, whereas cold events favour the positive phase. The ICON simulations also suggest a significant effect of ENSO on the Atlantic-European sector in late winter. Unlike the effect of ENSO, ICON simulations and the reanalysis do not agree on the stratospheric pathway for Arctic-midlatitude linkages. Whereas the reanalysis exhibits a weakening of the stratospheric vortex in midwinter and a connected tropospheric negative Arctic Oscillation circulation response to amplified Arctic warming, this is not the case in the ICON simulations. Implications and potential reasons for this discrepancy are further analysed and discussed in this work. &#160;

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Linkages between Large-Scale Climate Patterns and Karst Spring Discharge in Northern China

Journal of Hydrometeorology ◽

10.1175/jhm-d-15-0085.1 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 17 (2) ◽

pp. 713-724 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Xueli Huo ◽

Zhongfang Liu ◽

Qingyun Duan ◽

Pengmei Hao ◽

Yanyan Zhang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Wavelet Transform ◽

Time Scales ◽

Large Scale ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Northern China ◽

Climate Indices ◽

Spring Discharge ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Climate Patterns ◽

Periodic Components

Abstract The Niangziguan Springs (NS) discharge is used as a proxy indicator of the variability of the karst groundwater system in relation to major climate indices such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), Indian summer monsoon (ISM), and west North Pacific monsoon (WNPM). The relationships between spring discharge and these climate indices are determined using the multitaper method (MTM), continuous wavelet transform (CWT), and wavelet transform coherence (WTC). Significant periodic components of spring discharge in the 1-, 3.4-, and 26.8-yr periodicities are identified and reconstructed for further investigation of the correlation between spring discharge and large-scale climate patterns on these time scales. Correlation coefficients and WTC between spring discharge and the climate indices indicate that variability in spring discharge is significantly and positively correlated with monsoon indices in the 1-yr periodicity and negatively correlated with ENSO in the 3.4-yr periodicity and PDO in the 26.8-yr periodicity. This suggests that the oscillations of the spring discharge on annual, interannual, and interdecadal time scales are dominated by monsoon, ENSO, and PDO in the NS basin, respectively. Results show that monsoons modulate the spring discharge by affecting local meteorological parameters. ENSO and PDO impact the variability of the NS discharge by affecting the climate conditions in northern China.

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The Climatology and Characteristics of Rossby Wave Packets Using a Feature-Based Tracking Technique

Monthly Weather Review ◽

10.1175/mwr-d-13-00371.1 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 142 (10) ◽

pp. 3528-3548 ◽

Cited By ~ 25

Author(s):

Matthew B. Souders ◽

Brian A. Colle ◽

Edmund K. M. Chang

Keyword(s):

Northern Hemisphere ◽

Rossby Wave ◽

Large Scale ◽

Arctic Oscillation ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Wave Packets ◽

The Arctic ◽

Average Intensity ◽

Feature Based ◽

The Arctic Oscillation

Abstract This paper describes an objective, track-based climatology of Rossby wave packets (RWPs). NCEP–NCAR reanalysis wind and geopotential height data at 300 hPa every 6 h were spectrally filtered using a Hilbert transform technique under the assumption that RWPs propagate along a waveguide defined by the 14-day running average of the 300-hPa wind. Track data and feature-based descriptive statistics, including area, average intensity, intensity volume (intensity multiplied by area), intensity-weighted centroid position, and velocity, were gathered to describe the interannual, annual, seasonal, and regime-based climatology of RWPs. RWPs have a more pronounced seasonal cycle in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) than the Southern Hemisphere (SH). RWPs are nearly nonexistent in the summer months (June–August; JJA) in the NH, while there is nearly continuous RWP activity downstream of South Africa during austral summer (December–February; DJF). Interannual variability in RWP frequency and intensity in the Northern Hemisphere is found to be strongly connected with the large-scale flow regimes such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation. Enhanced RWP activity is also found to coherently propagate from the Pacific into the Atlantic on average when the Arctic Oscillation switches from a positive to a negative phase. No significant long-term (~30 yr) trend in RWP frequency, activity, or amplitude is found.

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Effects of Climatic Drivers and Teleconnections on Late 20th Century Trends in Spring Freshet of Four Major Arctic-Draining Rivers

Water ◽

10.3390/w13020179 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (2) ◽

pp. 179

Author(s):

Roxanne Ahmed ◽

Terry Prowse ◽

Yonas Dibike ◽

Barrie Bonsal

Keyword(s):

Arctic Ocean ◽

Large Scale ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Rate Of Change ◽

The Arctic ◽

Late 20Th Century ◽

Basin Scale ◽

The Arctic Ocean ◽

Spring Freshet ◽

Climatic Drivers

Spring freshet is the dominant annual discharge event in all major Arctic draining rivers with large contributions to freshwater inflow to the Arctic Ocean. Research has shown that the total freshwater influx to the Arctic Ocean has been increasing, while at the same time, the rate of change in the Arctic climate is significantly higher than in other parts of the globe. This study assesses the large-scale atmospheric and surface climatic conditions affecting the magnitude, timing and regional variability of the spring freshets by analyzing historic daily discharges from sub-basins within the four largest Arctic-draining watersheds (Mackenzie, Ob, Lena and Yenisei). Results reveal that climatic variations closely match the observed regional trends of increasing cold-season flows and earlier freshets. Flow regulation appears to suppress the effects of climatic drivers on freshet volume but does not have a significant impact on peak freshet magnitude or timing measures. Spring freshet characteristics are also influenced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation, particularly in their positive phases. The majority of significant relationships are found in unregulated stations. This study provides a key insight into the climatic drivers of observed trends in freshet characteristics, whilst clarifying the effects of regulation versus climate at the sub-basin scale.

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The Interannual Variability of the Haines Index over North America

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology ◽

10.1175/jamc-d-13-068.1 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 52 (11) ◽

pp. 2396-2409 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Lejiang Yu ◽

Shiyuan Zhong ◽

Xindi Bian ◽

Warren E. Heilman ◽

Joseph J. Charney

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Pacific Ocean ◽

North America ◽

Interannual Variability ◽

Large Scale ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Southeastern United States ◽

Lower Atmosphere ◽

The Arctic ◽

Fire Weather Index

AbstractThe Haines index (HI) is a fire-weather index that is widely used as an indicator of the potential for dry, low-static-stability air in the lower atmosphere to contribute to erratic fire behavior or large fire growth. This study examines the interannual variability of HI over North America and its relationship to indicators of large-scale circulation anomalies. The results show that the first three HI empirical orthogonal function modes are related respectively to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and the interdecadal sea surface temperature variation over the tropical Pacific Ocean. During the negative ENSO phase, an anomalous ridge (trough) is evident over the western (eastern) United States, with warm/dry weather and more days with high HI values in the western and southeastern United States. During the negative phase of the AO, an anomalous trough is found over the western United States, with wet/cool weather and fewer days with high HI, while an anomalous ridge occurs over the southern United States–northern Mexico, with an increase in the number of days with high HI. After the early 1990s, the subtropical high over the eastern Pacific Ocean and the Bermuda high were strengthened by a wave train that was excited over the tropical western Pacific Ocean and resulted in warm/dry conditions over the southwestern United States and western Mexico and wet weather in the southeastern United States. The above conditions are reversed during the positive phase of ENSO and AO and before the early 1990s.

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Impacts of large-scale atmospheric circulation changes due to winter sea-ice retreat on Black Carbon transport and deposition to the Arctic

10.5194/acp-2016-1007 ◽

2016 ◽

Author(s):

Luca Pozzoli ◽

Srdan Dobricic ◽

Simone Russo ◽

Elisabetta Vignati

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Atmospheric Circulation ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Large Scale ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

The Arctic ◽

The North ◽

Ice Retreat ◽

The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽

Sea Ice Retreat

Abstract. Winter warming and sea ice retreat observed in the Arctic in the last decades determine changes of large scale atmospheric circulation pattern that may impact as well the transport of black carbon (BC) to the Arctic and its deposition on the sea ice, with possible feedbacks on the regional and global climate forcing. In this study we developed and applied a new statistical algorithm, based on the Maximum Likelihood Estimate approach, to determine how the changes of three large scale weather patterns (the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Scandinavian Blocking, and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation), associated with winter increasing temperatures and sea ice retreat in the Arctic, impact the transport of BC to the Arctic and its deposition. We found that the three atmospheric patterns together determine a decreasing winter deposition trend of BC between 1980 and 2015 in the Eastern Arctic while they increase BC deposition in the Western Arctic. The increasing trend is mainly due to the more frequent occurrences of stable high pressure systems (atmospheric blocking) near Scandinavia favouring the transport in the lower troposphere of BC from Europe and North Atlantic directly into to the Arctic. The North Atlantic Oscillation has a smaller impact on BC deposition in the Arctic, but determines an increasing BC atmospheric load over the entire Arctic Ocean with increasing BC concentrations in the upper troposphere. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation does not influence significantly the transport and deposition of BC to the Arctic. The results show that changes in atmospheric circulation due to polar atmospheric warming and reduced winter sea ice significantly impacted BC transport and deposition. The anthropogenic emission reductions applied in the last decades were, therefore, crucial to counterbalance the most likely trend of increasing BC pollution in the Arctic.

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Variability of Daily Maximum Wind Speed across China, 1975–2016: An Examination of Likely Causes

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-19-0603.1 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 33 (7) ◽

pp. 2793-2816 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Gangfeng Zhang ◽

Cesar Azorin-Molina ◽

Deliang Chen ◽

Jose A. Guijarro ◽

Feng Kong ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Wind Speed ◽

Large Scale ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Vertical Wind Shear ◽

Maximum Wind Speed ◽

The Arctic ◽

Risk Governance ◽

Daily Maximum ◽

Near Surface ◽

Maximum Wind

AbstractAssessing change in daily maximum wind speed and its likely causes is crucial for many applications such as wind power generation and wind disaster risk governance. Multidecadal variability of observed near-surface daily maximum wind speed (DMWS) from 778 stations over China is analyzed for 1975–2016. A robust homogenization protocol using the R package Climatol was applied to the DMWS observations. The homogenized dataset displayed a significant (p < 0.05) declining trend of −0.038 m s−1 decade−1 for all China annually, with decreases in winter (−0.355 m s−1 decade−1, p < 0.05) and autumn (−0.108 m s−1 decade−1; p < 0.05) and increases in summer (+0.272 m s−1 decade−1, p < 0.05) along with a weak recovery in spring (+0.032 m s−1 decade−1; p > 0.10); that is, DMWS declined during the cold semester (October–March) and increased during the warm semester (April–September). Correlation analysis of the Arctic Oscillation, the Southern Oscillation, and the west Pacific modes exhibited significant correlation with DMWS variability, unveiling their complementarity in modulating DMWS. Further, we explored potential physical processes relating to the atmospheric circulation changes and their impacts on DMWS and found that 1) overall weakened horizontal airflow [large-scale mean horizontal pressure gradient (from −0.24 to +0.02 hPa decade−1) and geostrophic wind speed (from −0.6 to +0.6 m s−1 decade−1)], 2) widely decreased atmospheric vertical momentum transport [atmospheric stratification thermal instability (from −3 to +1.5 decade−1) and vertical wind shear (from −0.4 to +0.2 m s−1 decade−1)], and 3) decreased extratropical cyclones frequency (from −0.3 to 0 month decade−1) are likely causes of DMWS change.

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Application of the cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence to geophysical time series

Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics ◽

10.5194/npg-11-561-2004 ◽

2004 ◽

Vol 11 (5/6) ◽

pp. 561-566 ◽

Cited By ~ 2659

Author(s):

A. Grinsted ◽

J. C. Moore ◽

S. Jevrejeva

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Wavelet Transform ◽

Statistical Significance ◽

Wavelet Coherence ◽

The Arctic ◽

Arctic Oscillation Index ◽

Time Frequency ◽

Cross Wavelet Transform ◽

The Cross ◽

Cross Wavelet

Abstract. Many scientists have made use of the wavelet method in analyzing time series, often using popular free software. However, at present there are no similar easy to use wavelet packages for analyzing two time series together. We discuss the cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence for examining relationships in time frequency space between two time series. We demonstrate how phase angle statistics can be used to gain confidence in causal relationships and test mechanistic models of physical relationships between the time series. As an example of typical data where such analyses have proven useful, we apply the methods to the Arctic Oscillation index and the Baltic maximum sea ice extent record. Monte Carlo methods are used to assess the statistical significance against red noise backgrounds. A software package has been developed that allows users to perform the cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence (www.pol.ac.uk/home/research/waveletcoherence/).

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