scholarly journals Do North American Migratory Barren-Ground Caribou Subpopulations Cycle?

ARCTIC ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 73 (3) ◽  
pp. 326-346
Author(s):  
Eric Bongelli ◽  
Martha Dowsley ◽  
Victor M. Velasco-Herrera ◽  
Mitchell Taylor
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
North American ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Rangifer Tarandus ◽  
Species Abundance ◽  
Information Criteria ◽  
Good Correspondence ◽  
Barren Ground ◽  
Total Range ◽  
Highly Correlated

Unlike all other members of the deer family, subpopulations of barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) are typically sine-cyclic. We used Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) to rank competing population dynamics models for 11 North American barren-ground caribou subpopulations. Nine of these subpopulations were best described as sine-cyclic with periods ranging from a minimum of 26 years (Bluenose-East and Porcupine) to a maximum of 55 years (Western Arctic); and amplitudes ranging from a minimum of 8 455 (Cape Bathurst) to a maximum of 327 432 (George River). Time series estimates of subpopulation abundance generated by the sine cycle models showed good correspondence to published subpopulation estimates of abundance for all nine sine-cyclic subpopulations (r = 0.978; p < 0.001). Lack of demographic closure (migration between subpopulations) was evident in both of the subpopulations that were not identified as sine-cyclic. Barren-ground caribou subpopulation amplitudes were mostly determined by subpopulation total range size and summer range productivity (R2 = 0.962; p < 0.001) and subpopulation periods were mostly determined by amplitude, total range productivity, and land surface temperature (R2 = 0.950; p < 0.001). Time series estimates of subpopulation abundance generated from the respective environmental regression models were highly correlated (r = 0.964; p < 0.001) to the published subpopulation estimates of abundance for the set of 9 sine-cyclic subpopulations. Extended (> 3 generations) subpopulation declines are a natural feature of cyclic barren-ground caribou subpopulations. Trends in species abundance based on pooled assemblages of asynchronous cyclic subpopulations should be interpreted with caution.

scholarly journals Exploring the Variation Trend of Urban Expansion, Land Surface Temperature, and Ecological Quality and Their Interrelationships in Guangzhou, China, from 1987 to 2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 1019
Author(s):  
Jianhui Xu ◽  
Yi Zhao ◽  
Caige Sun ◽  
Hanbin Liang ◽  
Ji Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Land Surface Temperature ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Impervious Surface ◽  
Ecological Quality ◽  
Urban Center ◽  
Urban Centers ◽  
Rapid Urbanization

This study explored the model of urban impervious surface (IS) density, land surface temperature (LST), and comprehensive ecological evaluation index (CEEI) from urban centers to suburbs. The interrelationships between these parameters in Guangzhou from 1987 to 2019 were analyzed using time-series Landsat-5 TM (Thematic Mapper), Landsat-8 OLI (Operational Land Imager), and TIRS (Thermal Infrared Sensor) images. The urban IS densities were calculated in concentric rings using time-series IS fractions, which were used to construct an inverse S-shaped urban IS density function to depict changes in urban form and the spatio-temporal dynamics of urban expansion from the urban center to the suburbs. The results indicated that Guangzhou experienced expansive urban growth, with the patterns of urban spatial structure changing from a single-center to a multi-center structure over the past 32 years. Next, the normalized LST and CEEI in each concentric ring were calculated, and their variation trends from the urban center to the suburbs were modeled using linear and nonlinear functions, respectively. The results showed that the normalized LST had a gradual decreasing trend from the urban center to the suburbs, while the CEEI showed a significant increasing trend. During the 32-year rapid urban development, the normalized LST difference between the urban center and suburbs increased gradually with time, and the CEEI significantly decreased. This indicated that rapid urbanization significantly expanded the impervious surface areas in Guangzhou, leading to an increase in the LST difference between urban centers and suburbs and a deterioration in ecological quality. Finally, the potential interrelationships among urban IS density, normalized LST, and CEEI were also explored using different models. This study revealed that rapid urbanization has produced geographical convergence between several ISs, which may increase the risk of the urban heat island effect and degradation of ecological quality.

scholarly journals GlobSim (v1.0): deriving meteorological time series for point locations from multiple global reanalyses

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 4661-4679 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bin Cao ◽  
Xiaojing Quan ◽  
Nicholas Brown ◽  
Emilie Stewart-Jones ◽  
Stephan Gruber
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Ground Surface ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Meteorological Variables ◽  
Ensemble Simulations ◽  
Driving Time ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Global Coverage ◽  
Uncertain Input

Abstract. Simulations of land-surface processes and phenomena often require driving time series of meteorological variables. Corresponding observations, however, are unavailable in most locations, even more so, when considering the duration, continuity and data quality required. Atmospheric reanalyses provide global coverage of relevant meteorological variables, but their use is largely restricted to grid-based studies. This is because technical challenges limit the ease with which reanalysis data can be applied to models at the site scale. We present the software toolkit GlobSim, which automates the downloading, interpolation and scaling of different reanalyses – currently ERA5, ERA-Interim, JRA-55 and MERRA-2 – to produce meteorological time series for user-defined point locations. The resulting data have consistent structure and units to efficiently support ensemble simulation. The utility of GlobSim is demonstrated using an application in permafrost research. We perform ensemble simulations of ground-surface temperature for 10 terrain types in a remote tundra area in northern Canada and compare the results with observations. Simulation results reproduced seasonal cycles and variation between terrain types well, demonstrating that GlobSim can support efficient land-surface simulations. Ensemble means often yielded better accuracy than individual simulations and ensemble ranges additionally provide indications of uncertainty arising from uncertain input. By improving the usability of reanalyses for research requiring time series of climate variables for point locations, GlobSim can enable a wide range of simulation studies and model evaluations that previously were impeded by technical hurdles in obtaining suitable data.

The Use of Satellite TIR Time Series for Thermal Anomalies’ Detection on Natural and Urban Areas

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Malvina Silvestri ◽  
Federico Rabuffi ◽  
Massimo Musacchio ◽  
Sergio Teggi ◽  
Maria Fabrizia Buongiorno
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Land Surface Temperature ◽  
Satellite Data ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Temperature Time Series ◽  
Campi Flegrei ◽  
Thermal Anomalies ◽  
Pca Method ◽  
Temperature Time

In this work, the land surface temperature time series derived using Thermal InfraRed (TIR) satellite data offers the possibility to detect thermal anomalies by using the PCA method. This approach produces very detailed maps of thermal anomalies, both in geothermal areas and in urban areas. Tests were conducted on the following three Italian sites: Solfatara-Campi Flegrei (Naples), Parco delle Biancane (Grosseto) and Modena city.

scholarly journals A comparison of ASCAT and modelled soil moisture over South Africa, using TOPKAPI in land surface mode

2010 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 613-626 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Sinclair ◽  
G. G. S. Pegram
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Saturation Index ◽  
Significant Proportion ◽  
Surface Mode ◽  
Good Correspondence ◽  
Percentage Saturation ◽  
Soil Saturation

Abstract. In this paper we compare two independent soil moisture estimates over South Africa. The first estimate is a Soil Saturation Index (SSI) provided by automated real-time computations of the TOPKAPI hydrological model, adapted to run as a collection of independent 1 km cells with centres on a grid with a spatial resolution of 0.125°, at 3 h intervals. The second set of estimates is the remotely sensed ASCAT Surface Soil Moisture product, temporally filtered to yield a Soil Wetness Index (SWI). For the TOPKAPI cells, the rainfall forcing used is the TRMM 3B42RT product, while the evapotranspiration forcing is based on a modification of the FAO56 reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0). ET0 is computed using forecast fields of meteorological variables from the Unified Model (UM) runs done by the South African Weather Service (SAWS); the UM forecast fields were used, because reanalysis is not done by SAWS. To validate these ET0 estimates we compare them with those computed using observed meteorological data at a network of weather stations; they were found to be unbiased with acceptable scatter. Using the rainfall and evapotranspiration forcing data, the percentage saturation of the TOPKAPI soil store is computed as a Soil Saturation Index (SSI), for each of 6984 unconnected uncalibrated TOPKAPI cells at 3 h time-steps. These SSI estimates are then compared with the SWI estimates obtained from ASCAT. The comparisons indicate a good correspondence in the dynamic behaviour of SWI and SSI for a significant proportion of South Africa.

Hysteretic Poisson INGARCH model for integer-valued time series

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 401-422 ◽  
Author(s):  
Buu-Chau Truong ◽  
Cathy WS Chen ◽  
Songsak Sriboonchitta
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Model Comparison ◽  
Monte Carlo Sampling ◽  
Information Criteria ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Over Dispersion ◽  
Ingarch Model

This study proposes a new model for integer-valued time series—the hysteretic Poisson integer-valued generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (INGARCH) model—which has an integrated hysteresis zone in the switching mechanism of the conditional expectation. Our modelling framework provides a parsimonious representation of the salient features of integer-valued time series, such as discreteness, over-dispersion, asymmetry and structural change. We adopt Bayesian methods with a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling scheme to estimate model parameters and utilize the Bayesian information criteria for model comparison. We then apply the proposed model to five real time series of criminal incidents recorded by the New South Wales Police Force in Australia. Simulation results and empirical analysis highlight the better performance of hysteresis in modelling the integer-valued time series.

scholarly journals Thermal anomalies detection before strong earthquakes (<i>M</i> > 6.0) using interquartile, wavelet and Kalman filter methods

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1099-1108 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. R. Saradjian ◽  
M. Akhoondzadeh
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Wavelet Transform ◽  
Anomaly Detection ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Seasonal Effects ◽  
Filter Method ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Thermal Anomalies ◽  
Filter Methods

Abstract. Thermal anomaly is known as a significant precursor of strong earthquakes, therefore Land Surface Temperature (LST) time series have been analyzed in this study to locate relevant anomalous variations prior to the Bam (26 December 2003), Zarand (22 February 2005) and Borujerd (31 March 2006) earthquakes. The duration of the three datasets which are comprised of MODIS LST images is 44, 28 and 46 days for the Bam, Zarand and Borujerd earthquakes, respectively. In order to exclude variations of LST from temperature seasonal effects, Air Temperature (AT) data derived from the meteorological stations close to the earthquakes epicenters have been taken into account. The detection of thermal anomalies has been assessed using interquartile, wavelet transform and Kalman filter methods, each presenting its own independent property in anomaly detection. The interquartile method has been used to construct the higher and lower bounds in LST data to detect disturbed states outside the bounds which might be associated with impending earthquakes. The wavelet transform method has been used to locate local maxima within each time series of LST data for identifying earthquake anomalies by a predefined threshold. Also, the prediction property of the Kalman filter has been used in the detection process of prominent LST anomalies. The results concerning the methodology indicate that the interquartile method is capable of detecting the highest intensity anomaly values, the wavelet transform is sensitive to sudden changes, and the Kalman filter method significantly detects the highest unpredictable variations of LST. The three methods detected anomalous occurrences during 1 to 20 days prior to the earthquakes showing close agreement in results found between the different applied methods on LST data in the detection of pre-seismic anomalies. The proposed method for anomaly detection was also applied on regions irrelevant to earthquakes for which no anomaly was detected, indicating that the anomalous behaviors can be related to impending earthquakes. The proposed method receives its credibility from the overall capabilities of the three integrated methods.

scholarly journals A statistics-based temporal filter algorithm to map spatiotemporally continuous shortwave albedo from MODIS data

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 2121-2129 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. F. Liu ◽  
Q. Liu ◽  
L. Z. Wang ◽  
S. L. Liang ◽  
J. G. Wen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Temporal Resolution ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Surface Albedo ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Radiant Energy ◽  
High Temporal Resolution ◽  
Land Surface Parameter ◽  
Temporal Filter ◽  
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

Abstract. Land-surface albedo plays a critical role in the earth's radiant energy budget studies. Satellite remote sensing provides an effective approach to acquire regional and global albedo observations. Owing to cloud coverage, seasonal snow and sensor malfunctions, spatiotemporally continuous albedo datasets are often inaccessible. The Global LAnd Surface Satellite (GLASS) project aims at providing a suite of key land surface parameter datasets with high temporal resolution and high accuracy for a global change study. The GLASS preliminary albedo datasets are global daily land-surface albedo generated by an angular bin algorithm (Qu et al., 2013). Like other products, the GLASS preliminary albedo datasets are affected by large areas of missing data; beside, sharp fluctuations exist in the time series of the GLASS preliminary albedo due to data noise and algorithm uncertainties. Based on the Bayesian theory, a statistics-based temporal filter (STF) algorithm is proposed in this paper to fill data gaps, smooth albedo time series, and generate the GLASS final albedo product. The results of the STF algorithm are smooth and gapless albedo time series, with uncertainty estimations. The performance of the STF method was tested on one tile (H25V05) and three ground stations. Results show that the STF method has greatly improved the integrity and smoothness of the GLASS final albedo product. Seasonal trends in albedo are well depicted by the GLASS final albedo product. Compared with MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) product, the GLASS final albedo product has a higher temporal resolution and more competence in capturing the surface albedo variations. It is recommended that the quality flag should be always checked before using the GLASS final albedo product.

scholarly journals Evaluating terrestrial CO<sub>2</sub> flux diagnoses and uncertainties from a simple land surface model and its residuals

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 217-235 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. W. Hilton ◽  
K. J. Davis ◽  
K. Keller
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Parameter Estimation ◽  
North American ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Ecosystem Respiration ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Net Ecosystem Exchange ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Considerable Uncertainty

Abstract. Global terrestrial atmosphere–ecosystem carbon dioxide fluxes are well constrained by the concentration and isotopic composition of atmospheric carbon dioxide. In contrast, considerable uncertainty persists surrounding regional contributions to the net global flux as well as the impacts of atmospheric and biological processes that drive the net flux. These uncertainties severely limit our ability to make confident predictions of future terrestrial biological carbon fluxes. Here we use a simple light-use efficiency land surface model (the Vegetation Photosynthesis Respiration Model, VPRM) driven by remotely sensed temperature, moisture, and phenology to diagnose North American gross ecosystem exchange (GEE), ecosystem respiration, and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) for the period 2001 to 2006. We optimize VPRM parameters to eddy covariance (EC) NEE observations from 65 North American FluxNet sites. We use a separate set of 27 cross-validation FluxNet sites to evaluate a range of spatial and temporal resolutions for parameter estimation. With these results we demonstrate that different spatial and temporal groupings of EC sites for parameter estimation achieve similar sum of squared residuals values through radically different spatial patterns of NEE. We also derive a regression model to estimate observed VPRM errors as a function of VPRM NEE, temperature, and precipitation. Because this estimate is based on model-observation residuals it is comprehensive of all the error sources present in modeled fluxes. We find that 1 km interannual variability in VPRM NEE is of similar magnitude to estimated 1 km VPRM NEE errors.

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