The Causal Relationship between Tourist Arrivals and Economic Growth: Evidence from Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 721 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhamad Rifki FADILAH ◽  
Haryo KUNCORO ◽  
K. Dianta A. SEBAYANG
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Main Motivation ◽  
Foreign Tourist

The main motivation behind this research because nowadays tourism becomes one of the major industries in Indonesia. However, literature on the causal relationship between the cyclical components of tourist arrivals and economic growth revealed inconclusive especially in the developing countries as Indonesia. This paper aims at investigating whether foreign tourist arrivals contribute to economic growth evidence from Indonesia over the period 2004 (1) – 2016 (12). Then, this research was applied the vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Afterwards, we exploited Hodrick-Prescott de-trending procedure to obtain cyclical components of tourist arrivals and economic growth. By using the test of Granger-causality, we found that causality running from tourist arrivals to economic growth. Furthermore, the VAR model shows that tourist arrivals were pro-cyclical to economic growth, implied that the increase of tourist arrivals promote the economic growth so that foreign tourist arrivals could be the key to escalate Indonesia’s economic growth in short term.

scholarly journals KAUSALITAS KONTRIBUSI INDUSTRI PARIWISATA DAN JUMLAH KUNJUNGAN WISATAWAN TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 330
Author(s):  
COKORDA BAGUS YUDISTIRA ◽  
I WAYAN SUMARJAYA ◽  
LUH PUTU IDA HARINI
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Foreign Tourist ◽  
The World

Bali is known as one of the most popular tourism destination in the world. The number of tourist visit to Bali increases every year. In 2010, there roughly 7 millions tourist visits to Bali and reach up to 14 million people by the end of 2017. This increased in number may affect the growth of tourism industries and economic growth in Bali Province. This study aims to analyze the patterns of causal relationship between tourism industry receipts, tourist visits, and economic growth in Bali based on time series data using vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The results conclude the following: (i) foreign tourist visits is significantly affect economic growth. In addition, economic growth, domestic tourist visits, and foreign tourist visits are significantly impact to tourism industry receipts, (ii) economic growth would affect the tourism industry receipts in the next four consecutive months, (iii) the forecasting result of economic growth with VAR model is highly accurated with MAPE 2%.

scholarly journals The Trivariate Causality among Education, Health, and Economic Growth in Zimbabwe

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1357
Author(s):  
Michael Takudzwa Pasara ◽  
Tapiwa Kelvin Mutambirwa ◽  
Nolutho Diko
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Feedback Effect ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Education And Health ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Granger Causality Tests

This study investigated the causality among education, health, and economic growth in Zimbabwe. Causality effects are a thinly explored area in literature, with most studies focusing on bidirectional relationships. Granger causality tests were employed in a Vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Results showed that education Granger causes health improvements, with health improvements in turn fairly associating to Granger cause economic growth in Zimbabwe. Thus, the effect of education on economic growth is not direct, but works through improved health, pointing to the conclusion that health is a transmission mechanism through which education drives economic growth. No feedback effect was established from health to education and from economic growth to education and health. Thus, results suggest the need for a holistic policy approach which integrates education and health policies in a bid to drive economic growth, since education has no effect on economic growth in its own domain, but through health.

scholarly journals The FDI-growth hypothesis: A VAR model for Nigeria

2004 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 170-184
Author(s):  
PA Olomola
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Endogenous Production ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

The objective of this study was to examine the causal relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth in Nigeria using annual data covering the period 1970 to 2002. The study employed the Granger causality procedure to test the direction of causality between foreign direct investment and economic growth for the Nigerian economy. The endogenous production function was derived to accommodate foreign investment and other domestic policies that could influence growth and foreign investment. The study found a one-way causality between from foreign direct investment to economic growth. The implication arising from this study is that Nigeria should adopt policy whereby FDI is attracted to promote economic growth.

scholarly journals Tourism and economic growth: Multi-country evidence from mixed-frequency Granger causality tests

2021 ◽  
pp. 135481662199015
Author(s):  
Martin Enilov ◽  
Yuan Wang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Global Perspective ◽  
Mixed Frequency ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

This article provides new global evidence for the causal relationship between international tourist arrivals (TA) and economic growth (EG). The analysis considers 23 developing and developed countries and covers the period from January 1981 to December 2017. The causal relationship between TA and EG is determined using a bootstrap mixed-frequency Granger causality approach adopting a rolling window technique to evaluate its stability and persistency over time. Empirical results show that causality is time-varying in both the short-term and the long-term. We illustrate our results by constructing a new global connectivity index (GCI). The GCI shows that international TA remain a leading indicator for future EG in a global perspective, especially during the global financial crisis (GFC). Our findings suggest that tourism sector plays an important part in the future EG in developing countries after the GFC. Similarly, the period after the GFC is characterised by one of the highest values of the tourism-led EG in developed countries according to the GCI; however, this effect is temporal and quickly eradicates. Overall, we find that tourism sector in developing countries remains a primary contributor to future EG, which is not the case in developed countries.

scholarly journals Testing for Panel Granger Causality Relationship between international R&D cooperation and Economic Growth

2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 1176-1197
Author(s):  
Tareki Sadraou ◽  
Tarek Ben Al
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Panel Test ◽  
Panel Granger Causality ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
Causality Hypothesis

In this paper we investigate the causal relationship between R&D cooperation and economic growth. We use an innovative econometric method which is based on a panel test of the Granger non causality hypothesis. We implement various tests with a sample of 32 industrial and developing countries over the 1970-2012 periods. The results provide support for a robust causality relationship from economic growth to the R&D cooperation. On the contrary, the non causality hypothesis from R&D cooperation to economic growth can't be rejected in most of the cases. However, these results only imply that, if such a relationship exists, it can't be easily identified in a simply bi-variate Granger causality test.

scholarly journals Openness and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence On The Relationship Between Output, Inward FDI, and Trade

1970 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-72
Author(s):  
E.M. Ekanayake ◽  
Richard Vogel ◽  
Bala Veeramacheneni
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Output Level ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between openness and economic growth in developed anddeveloping countries has been of continuing interest in both the theoretical andempirical literature. In this paper. we employ a vector autoregressive (VAR)model and error correction techniques to test for the existence and nature of thecausal relationship between output level, inward FDI and exports across across-section of both developed and developing countries using data from 1960-2001.Our main objective is to analyze the extent and sources of internationallinkages between openness and economic performance. The evidence supportshi-directional causality between exports growth and economic growth; the economicgrowth and FDI relationship has mixed results.

scholarly journals ODA and Provincial Economic Growth in Vietnam

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Dang Ngoc Duc ◽  
Do Thi Ngoc Lan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Focal Point ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test

The focal point of this paper is focused on assessing the causal relationship between ODA and economic growth in the localities of Vietnam. This research uses panel data of ODA and GDP from 63 provinces of Vietnam by using Granger Causality test. The results showed that ODA has a causal effect on economic growth (GDP) and vice versa, economic growth decides to attract ODA in provinces in Vietnam. This result complements studies on the causal relationship between ODA and economic growth using new empirical evidence through case studies in the provinces of Vietnam.

scholarly journals Government Size and Economic Growth: A Review of International Literature

SAGE Open ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 215824401987720 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheilla Nyasha ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Government Size ◽  
International Literature ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Clear Cut ◽  
Study Methodology

In this article, we survey the existing literature on the causal relationship between government size and economic growth, highlighting the theoretical and empirical evidence from topical work. To our knowledge, this study may well be the first study of its kind to survey, in detail, the existing literature on the causal relationship between government size and economic growth—in all the countries, whether developing or developed. By and large, our study shows that direction of causality between these two variables has four possible outcomes, and that all the outcomes have found empirical support, based on variations in the country or region under study, methodology, proxies, data set used, and time frame considered. However, of the four, the most prominent is the second view, which validates unidirectional Granger-causality from economic growth to government size, followed by the bidirectional Granger-causality category. The study, therefore, concludes that the causal relationship between government size and economic growth is far from being clear-cut.

VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE PROCESSES WITH NONLINEAR TIME TRENDS IN COINTEGRATING RELATIONS

2001 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 577-597 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antti Ripatti ◽  
Pentti
Keyword(s):  
Structural Changes ◽  
Asymptotic Theory ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Level Shift ◽  
Autoregressive Processes ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Market Rate ◽  
Nonlinear Trends ◽  
Vector Autoregressive Processes

We extend the conventional cointegrated VAR model to allow for general nonlinear deterministic trends. These nonlinear trends can be used to model gradual structural changes in the intercept term of the cointegrating relations. A general asymptotic theory of estimation and statistical inference is reviewed and a diagnostic test for the correct specification of an employed nonlinear trend is developed. The methods are applied to Finnish interest-rate data. A smooth level shift of the logistic form between the own-yield of broad money and the short-term money market rate is found appropriate for these data. The level shift is motivated by the deregulation of issuing certificates of deposit and its inclusion in the model solves the puzzle of the “missing cointegration vector” found in a previous study.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document