FlashP

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 721-729
Author(s):  
Shuyuan Yan ◽  
Bolin Ding ◽  
Wei Guo ◽  
Jingren Zhou ◽  
Zhewei Wei ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
High Dimensional ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Business Decisions ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Sampling Algorithms ◽  
Forecasting System

Interactive response time is important in analytical pipelines for users to explore a sufficient number of possibilities and make informed business decisions. We consider a forecasting pipeline with large volumes of high-dimensional time series data. Real-time forecasting can be conducted in two steps. First, we specify the part of data to be focused on and the measure to be predicted by slicing, dicing, and aggregating the data. Second, a forecasting model is trained on the aggregated results to predict the trend of the specified measure. While there are a number of forecasting models available, the first step is the performance bottleneck. A natural idea is to utilize sampling to obtain approximate aggregations in real time as the input to train the forecasting model. Our scalable real-time forecasting system FlashP (Flash Prediction) is built based on this idea, with two major challenges to be resolved in this paper: first, we need to figure out how approximate aggregations affect the fitting of forecasting models, and forecasting results; and second, accordingly, what sampling algorithms we should use to obtain these approximate aggregations and how large the samples are. We introduce a new sampling scheme, called GSW sampling, and analyze error bounds for estimating aggregations using GSW samples. We introduce how to construct compact GSW samples with the existence of multiple measures to be analyzed. We conduct experiments to evaluate our solution its alternatives on real data.

A Novel Time Series Forecasting Approach Considering Data Characteristics

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 46-53
Author(s):  
Ling Tang ◽  
Shuai Wang ◽  
Lean Yu
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Total Energy ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Prediction Performance ◽  
Time Series Forecasting ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Total Energy Consumption ◽  
Forecasting Models

A novel time series forecasting approach with consideration of inner knowledge hidden in data, in terms of data characteristics, is proposed. In the proposed methodology, the main data characteristics hidden in the observed time series data are first explored; and according to the data characteristics, suitable forecasting models are formulated to improve prediction performance. For illustration, the proposed methodology is used to predict Chinese total social consumption and total energy consumption. The empirical results show the forecasting model considering data characteristics outperforms other popular forecasting models ignoring data characteristics, which further implies that data characteristics exploration is an important and necessary step in forecasting and the proposed methodology can be used as a promising approach for time series forecasting.

scholarly journals A Time Series Analysis - Based Forecasting Approach for the Indian Realty Sector

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaydip Sen
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Time Processing ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Series Analysis

<p>Prediction of stock prices using time series analysis is quite a difficult and challenging task since the stock prices usually depict random patterns of movement. However, the last decade has witnessed rapid development and evolution of sophisticated algorithms for complex statistical analysis. These algorithms are capable of processing a large volume of time series data executing on high-performance hardware and parallel computing architecture. Thus computations which were seemingly impossible to perform a few years back are quite amenable to real-time time processing and effective analysis today. Stock market time series data are large in volume, and quite often need real-time processing and analysis. Thus it is quite natural that research community has focused on designing and developing robust predictive models for accurately forecasting stochastic nature of stock price movements. This work presents a time series decomposition-based approach for understanding the past behavior of the realty sector of India, and forecasting its behavior in future. While the forecasting models are built using the time series data of the realty sector for the period January 2010 till December 2015, the prediction is made for the time series index values for the months of the year 2016. A detailed comparative analysis of the methods are presented with respect to their forecasting accuracy and extensive results are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the six proposed forecasting models. </p>

scholarly journals Integration of Demand Response and Short-Term Forecasting for the Management of Prosumers’ Demand and Generation

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
María Carmen Ruiz-Abellón ◽  
Luis Alfredo Fernández-Jiménez ◽  
Antonio Guillamón ◽  
Alberto Falces ◽  
Ana García-Garre ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Power Systems ◽  
Demand Response ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Renewable Generation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Short Term Forecasting

The development of Short-Term Forecasting Techniques has a great importance for power system scheduling and managing. Therefore, many recent research papers have dealt with the proposal of new forecasting models searching for higher efficiency and accuracy. Several kinds of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques have provided good performance at predicting and their efficiency mainly depends on the characteristics of the time series data under study. Load forecasting has been widely studied in recent decades and models providing mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) below 5% have been proposed. On the other hand, short-term generation forecasting models for photovoltaic plants have been more recently developed and the MAPEs are in general still far from those achieved from load forecasting models. The aim of this paper is to propose a methodology that could help power systems or aggregators to make up for the lack of accuracy of the current forecasting methods when predicting renewable energy generation. The proposed methodology is carried out in three consecutive steps: (1) short-term forecasting of energy consumption and renewable generation; (2) classification of daily pattern for the renewable generation data using Dynamic Time Warping; (3) application of Demand Response strategies using Physically Based Load Models. Real data from a small town in Spain were used to illustrate the performance and efficiency of the proposed procedure.

scholarly journals A Time Series Analysis - Based Forecasting Approach for the Indian Realty Sector

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaydip Sen
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Time Processing ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Series Analysis

<p>Prediction of stock prices using time series analysis is quite a difficult and challenging task since the stock prices usually depict random patterns of movement. However, the last decade has witnessed rapid development and evolution of sophisticated algorithms for complex statistical analysis. These algorithms are capable of processing a large volume of time series data executing on high-performance hardware and parallel computing architecture. Thus computations which were seemingly impossible to perform a few years back are quite amenable to real-time time processing and effective analysis today. Stock market time series data are large in volume, and quite often need real-time processing and analysis. Thus it is quite natural that research community has focused on designing and developing robust predictive models for accurately forecasting stochastic nature of stock price movements. This work presents a time series decomposition-based approach for understanding the past behavior of the realty sector of India, and forecasting its behavior in future. While the forecasting models are built using the time series data of the realty sector for the period January 2010 till December 2015, the prediction is made for the time series index values for the months of the year 2016. A detailed comparative analysis of the methods are presented with respect to their forecasting accuracy and extensive results are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the six proposed forecasting models. </p>

scholarly journals Comparison Analysis of Facebook’s Prophet, Amazon’s DeepAR+ and CNN-QR Algorithms for Successful Real-World Sales Forecasting

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 67-84
Author(s):  
Emir Žunić ◽  
Kemal Korjenić ◽  
Sead Delalić ◽  
Zlatko Šubara
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Real World ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Detailed Comparison ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Comparison Analysis ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
The Creation ◽  
Analysis Of Time Series

By successfully solving the problem of forecasting, the processes in the work of various companies are optimized and savings are achieved. In this process, the analysis of time series data is of particular importance. Since the creation of Facebook’s Prophet, and Amazon’s DeepAR+ and CNN-QR forecasting models, algorithms have attracted a great deal of attention. The paper presents the application and comparison of the above algorithms for sales forecasting in distribution companies. A detailed comparison of the performance of algorithms over real data with different lengths of sales history was made. The results show that Prophet gives better results for items with a longer history and frequent sales, while Amazon’s algorithms show superiority for items without a long history and items that are rarely sold.

scholarly journals Estimating the function of oscillatory components in SSA-based forecasting model

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 11
Author(s):  
Winita Sulandari ◽  
Subanar Subanar ◽  
Suhartono Suhartono ◽  
Herni Utami ◽  
Muhammad Hisyam Lee
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Seasonal Time Series ◽  
Estimated Parameters

The study of SSA-based forecasting model is always interesting due to its capability in modeling trend and multiple seasonal time series. The aim of this study is to propose an iterative ordinary least square (OLS) for estimating the oscillatory with time-varying amplitude model that usually found in SSA decomposition. We compare the results with those obtained by nonlinear least square based on Levenberg Marquardt (NLM) method. A simulation study based on the time series data which has a linear amplitude modulated sinusoid component is conducted to investigate the error of estimated parameters of the model obtained by the proposed method. A real data series was also considered for the application example. The results show that in terms of forecasting accuracy, the SSA-based model where the oscillatory components are obtained by iterative OLS is nearly the same with that is obtained by the NLM method.

scholarly journals Adaptive, Unlabeled and Real-time Approximate-Learning Platform (AURA) for Personalized Epileptic Seizure Forecasting

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yikai Yang ◽  
Nhan Duy Truong ◽  
Jason K. Eshraghian ◽  
Armin Nikpour ◽  
Omid Kavehei
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Event Detection ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Detection System ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Patient Specific ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Detection Model ◽  
Learning Platform

A high performance event detection system is all you need for some predictive studies. Here, we present AURA: an Adaptive forecasting model trained with Unlabeled, Real-time data using internally generated Approximate labels on-the-fly. By harnessing the correlated nature of time-series data, a pair of detection and prediction models are coupled together such that the detection model generates labels automatically, which are then used to train the prediction model. AURA relies on several simple principles and assumptions: (i) the performance of an event prediction/forecasting model in the target application remains below the performance of an event detection model, (ii) detected events are treated as weak labels and deemed reliable enough for online training of a predictive model, and (iii) system performance and/or system responsive feedback characteristics can be tuned for a subject-under-test. For example, in medical patient monitoring, this enables personalization of the forecasting model. Seizure prediction is identified as an ideal test case of AURA, as preictal brainwaves are patient-specific and tailoring models to individual patients can significantly improve forecasting performance. AURA is used to generate an individual forecasting model for 5 patients, showing an average relative improvement in sensitivity by 33.33% and reduction in false alarms by 13.62%.

Implementasi Metode Winter untuk Forecasting Pertumbuhan Jumlah Penduduk: Studi Kasus Wilayah Provinsi NTB

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-61
Author(s):  
Syaharuddin ◽  
Abdul Adhiim Rizky ◽  
Lutfi Jauhari ◽  
Siti Fatimah ◽  
Wahyu Ningsih ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Optimal Parameter ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Average Error ◽  
Ratio Data ◽  
Female Data ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Conducting Research ◽  
And Gender

This research aims to analyse the acceleration of population growth based on gender in West Nusa Tenggara Province (NTB) using the Forecasting system by constructing the winter's method in the shape of the Multiple Forecasting System (G-MFS) based on Matlab by calculating the period indicator for accuracy to find time series data in the year 2020-2029. At the simulation stage, researchers used the population and gender ratio data in NTB Province in 2009-2019. The method used in conducting research is to use the winter's method. The evaluation of Forecasting results is done by calculating the average error value using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) method. From this study obtained the most optimal parameter value on male data namely ʌ, β and γ sequential values of 0.9, 0.5 and 0.9 while in female data, the value of ʌ, β and γ respectively, 0.2, 0.1 and 0.5. Then with the value of the parameter obtained MAPE value in male data of 1.7785% and in female data of 0.89034%.

scholarly journals Load forecasting of refrigerated display cabinet based on CEEMD–IPSO–LSTM combined model

Open Physics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 360-374
Author(s):  
Yuan Pei ◽  
Lei Zhenglin ◽  
Zeng Qinghui ◽  
Wu Yixiao ◽  
Lu Yanli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Combined Model ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
Consumption Reduction

Abstract The load of the showcase is a nonlinear and unstable time series data, and the traditional forecasting method is not applicable. Deep learning algorithms are introduced to predict the load of the showcase. Based on the CEEMD–IPSO–LSTM combination algorithm, this paper builds a refrigerated display cabinet load forecasting model. Compared with the forecast results of other models, it finally proves that the CEEMD–IPSO–LSTM model has the highest load forecasting accuracy, and the model’s determination coefficient is 0.9105, which is obviously excellent. Compared with other models, the model constructed in this paper can predict the load of showcases, which can provide a reference for energy saving and consumption reduction of display cabinet.

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