scholarly journals Does Demographic Change Affect the Current Account? A Reconsideration

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1850272
Author(s):  
Michael Graff ◽  
Kam Ki Tang ◽  
Jie Zhang

This paper re-examines the impact of demographic factors on the current account balance. To this end, we develop an analytical framework that is more general than the one commonly used in the literature in three aspects. First, it accounts for the facts that the world current account balance must be equal to zero. Second, a bigger economy will have greater impacts on others, but be influenced less by them. Third, a more open economy will have greater impacts on others and at the same time be more readily influenced by them. We then confront two alternative empirical specifications based on both the new and the conventional framework with a panel of data. In contrast to the findings based on the conventional framework, our results with the new framework indicate that population ageing does not appear to have discernible impacts on the current account balance.

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 14
Author(s):  
Huiguan Ding ◽  
Asli Ogunc ◽  
Dale Funderburk ◽  
Shiyou Li ◽  
Zhebie Shi

For more than a decade, the People’s Republic of China has sought to expand the degree of internationalization of its official currency. In recent decades, China has become the world’s second largest economy, as well as the world’s largest trading nation, and its securities markets are among the largest in the world. Today, the RMB is among the top five as a world payments currency. One of the significant costs of achieving higher degrees of internationalization of a country’s currency is the complicating impact it has on the efficacy and effect of that country’s domestic monetary policy.  However, what is the nature and extent of that complicating impact? This paper employs an IS-LM model of an open economy as an analytical framework, embeds an RMB internationalization factor into that model. Specifically, with this model we examine the impact of RMB internationalization on the effects of China’s monetary policy. 


2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 70-93
Author(s):  
Chirok Han ◽  
Kwanho Shin

Since the currency crisis in 1998, Korea has experienced continuous current account surpluses. Recently, the current account surplus increased more rapidly—amounting to 7.7 percent of GDP in 2015. In this paper, we investigate the underlying reasons for the widening of Korea's current account surpluses. We find that the upward trend in Korea's current account surpluses is largely explained by its demographical changes. Other economic variables are only helpful when explaining short run fluctuations in current account balances. Moreover, we show that Korea's current account surplus is expected to disappear by 2042 as it becomes one of the most aged economies in the world. Demographic changes are so powerful that they explain, quite successfully, the current account balance trends of other economies with highly aged populations such as Japan, Germany, Italy, Finland, and Greece. When we add the real exchange rate as an additional explanatory variable, it is statistically significant with the right sign, but the magnitude explained by it is quite limited. For example, to reduce the current account surplus by 1 percentage point, a 12 percent depreciation is needed. If Korea's current exchange rate is undervalued 4 to 12 percent less than the level consistent with fundamentals, it is impossible to reduce Korea's current account surplus to a reasonable level by adjusting the exchange rate alone. Another way to reduce current account surplus is to expand fiscal policies. We find, however, that the impact of fiscal adjustments in reducing current account surplus is even more limited. According to our estimates, reducing the current account surplus by 1 percentage point requires an increase in budget deficits (as a ratio to GDP) of 5 to 6 percentage points. If we allow endogenous movements of exchange rate and fiscal policy, the impact of exchange rate adjustment increases by 1.6 times but that of fiscal policy decreases that it is no longer statistically significant.


1989 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 153-165 ◽  
Author(s):  
David H Howard

In 1988, the United States recorded a deficit of about $135 billion on the current account of its balance of payments with the rest of the world. This paper presents an analytical framework for thinking about the current account deficit, explores causes of the current account deficit, and discusses the United States as a debtor nation and the issue of sustainability.


2018 ◽  
Vol 63 (217) ◽  
pp. 75-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
Radovan Kovacevic

This paper examines the impact of structural and cyclical factors on Serbia?s current account. We have applied several filters to turn off the long-term (structural) component and isolate the influence of cyclical factors. In this paper, we show that structural factors were more important determinants of the current account deficit in the full-time sample (1997-2016), while cyclical factors showed a stronger impact in the post-crisis period when the deficit was reduced. Although they lost their intensity during the crisis and in the post-crisis period, the structural factors determine the trend of the current account balance in the long-term. For further improvement of the current account, measures to increase exports should be taken. The structural changes of production, the wider range of support for export financing to small and medium-sized enterprises, and the application of advanced technologies in manufacturing could help to reduce the trade deficit, making the current account deficit sustainable.


2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 447
Author(s):  
Remy Hounsou

<p><em>This study compares the impact of certain economic and financial variables on the level of the deficit in the current account of the balance of payments of the countries of the Franc zone and certain countries of the non-Franc zone situated south of the Sahara. The empirical results of the study based on panel data models covering the period 1990-2015 indicate that none of the two zones behaves better against the current account deficit of the balance of payments and that no zone is more competitive than the other. Finally, it was clear from our analysis that the variables of gross domestic, saving and the change in the terms of trade better explain the change in the current account balance in the Franc zone, whereas the variables of net foreign transfers and gross domestic saving impact the most the current account deficit in non-CFA zone.</em></p>


2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 150-166
Author(s):  
Nenubari John Ikue ◽  
Lamin Magaji ◽  
Samuel Zeb-Omoni ◽  
Mohammed, Usman ◽  
Joseph Denwi

This paper is driven by the vast influence oil money have on the current account balance of major oil producing countries in Africa and the role policy measures could play to soften these effects. Dwelling on the nonlinear techniques, two types of Threshold Regression were used to estimate data on 8 African countries from 1995-2019. The results show evidence of nonlinear impacts of oil revenue on the current account balances of the 8 countries. The nature of the impact relies significantly on the levels of the threshold variable. Precisely, the estimated threshold benchmark for financial development was 33.34; below this threshold the sensitivity of current account balance to crude-oil shocks is higher and the probability of policy measures to mitigate the effects is low and, beyond the threshold the sensitivity of current account balance to crude-oil shocks is low and the probability of policy measure to mitigate the effects is higher. The finding suggested among others that crude-oil shocks is not the primary problem of the current account imbalance of oil-exporting countries rather the nature of the domestic economic policy environment.


2020 ◽  
pp. 94-102
Author(s):  
NANA ASLAMAZISHVILI

So far, much has been written and discussed about the rapid variability and complex predictability of the global economy, and different countries have more or less successfully dealt with the challenges they face. However, the global threat posed by the world in the form of COVID-19 puts the methods and approaches to combating economic crises completely upside down. What should be the strategy and tactics of the countries to start recovering the economies as quickly as possible under such kind of circumstances? In such a situation, it should be the best way to “hurry up slowly,” that is, to be thoroughly consistent so that short-term emergency measures do not harm long-term goals. Given the conditions of coronomics and the lessons the world has learned from it at this stage, recovery of the economics, in the earlier sense of the term, should be completely ineffective. We are accustomed to the fact that in the post-crisis period, economic recovery in a sense implies a more or less back-off to what was before the crisis. Given that this time a completely different “crisis” is occurring, essential structural changes and important transformations in many areas of the economy are needed to overcome its consequences. One of the clear lessons that must to be learned from Coronomics is that returning to what was already before would not be the right course of action for the economies focused on the sustainable development. Georgia is a small open economy, and the fate of such economies has already been decided in advance: they will not be able to influence the global economy, and their efforts must be directed to protect themselves from the negative effects of the ongoing processes in the world. What are the priorities for such countries on this path if traditional sectors are vulnerable to certain types of crises and fail to cope with the task of generating revenue in extreme situations that are necessary, on the one hand, to balance their demands and, on the other hand, to meet external obligations? This is the reality that Georgia has faced in the face of coronomics. How did the Georgian economy meet the shock of COVID-19? 2019 will be a turning point in many years for assessing economic outcomes, not just in Georgia. What are the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators and do they give a positive signal according to the data of this period? This article deals with the external economic aspects of these indicators. The current account deficit as of 2019 was $ 900.5 million, or 5.1 percent of gross domestic product. Historically, this is the best indicator in the history of independent Georgia. On the other hand, historically, the country›s external liabilities, which amount to $ 34.5 billion, are 1.9 times higher than Gross Domestic Product and 3.2 times higher than the country›s foreign financial assets; The country›s external debt was 1.1 times higher than GDP at the end of 2019, while imports accounted for 40.8 percent of total consumption (intermediate and final). Thus, Georgia›s positioning on the challenges of COVID-19 is completely unfavorable and critical. This article aims to discuss the main aspects of the country›s foreign sector accounts, the profitable and deficient articles of the balance of payments that traditionally determine the state of the current account, and how vulnerable these items are to external factors and shocks. The focus on this issue is to explore the ways in which it is possible to reduce the degree of dependence of the country›s economy on foreign shocks and achieve external economic stability. However, it should be noted that the format of the article is not sufficient for in-depth discussion of a number of causeand-effect issues, for the evaluation of perspectives, and for deeper and more substantiated reasoning. Therefore, it can be said that the paper forms the main postulates on the issues under consideration, which together and each of them deserves in-depth research, but not in terms of fragmentary time and content, but in a complex and permanent mode.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (54) ◽  
Author(s):  
Romain Duval ◽  
Davide Furceri ◽  
João Tovar Jalles

We explore the impact of major labor and product market reforms on current account dynamics using a new “narrative” database of major changes in employment protection for regular workers and product market regulation for non-manufacturing industries covering 26 advanced economies over the past four decades. Our main finding is that product market deregulation is associated with a weakening of the current account, while labor market deregulation is associated with an improvement. These effects are transitory and driven by both saving and investment responses. Labor and product market reforms both have a more positive impact on the current account balance when implemented under weak macroeconomic conditions. Our results are broadly consistent with predictions from recent DSGE models with endogenous producer entry and labor market frictions.


2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 66-79
Author(s):  
Sanja Bakić

A country's balance of payments represents transactions between one country and the rest of the world. The subject of the research is the analysis of the period from 2010 to 2018 and the presentation of the impact of positions of goods, services, primary income and personal transfers on the current account of the balance of payments, as well as covering current balance positions through capital. The aim of the research in this paper is to examine the importance of opening the borders of the Republic of Serbia and enabling the entry of foreign investors. The expected results of the research should indicate the way to reduce the current account deficit, the balance of payments itself, as well as the economic development and stability of the country.


2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 244-255
Author(s):  
I. M. Drapkin ◽  

Macroeconomic management of a small open economy in a currency board arrangement faces two serious problems: first, under a fixed exchange rate, fiscal policy is the only effective macroeconomic instrument for smoothing out the business cycle; second, the twin deficits phenomenon, if it exists, may jeopardize the stability of the currency board arrangement. This paper uses quarterly seasonally adjusted Eurostat data for the period of 1999–2019, the Hodrick–Prescott filter and a vector autoregression (VAR) to answer the three questions that are of utmost importance to Bulgarian policy-makers: first, is the discretionary fiscal policy of the Bulgarian government procyclical or countercyclical? Second, do the automatic stabilizers in the Bulgarian state budget function properly? Finally, is the twin deficits hypothesis valid for Bulgaria? Our findings imply that the fiscal discretion of the Bulgarian government is procyclical, while the automatic fiscal stabilizers do not work effectively. The first part of the twin deficits hypothesis (the causal link between the fiscal balance and the current account balance) is confirmed but the second part of the twin deficits hypothesis (the positive relationship between the fiscal balance and the current account balance) is rejected for Bulgaria. It may be inferred that both sides of the Bulgarian state budget (revenue and expenditure) need to be improved in order to increase the effectiveness of Bulgaria’s fiscal policy. Low budget deficits (not higher than 3% of GDP) are recommended for improving the current account balance and encouraging economic growth.


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