Chapter 2 Modeling Democratic Transitions: Distributive Conflict and Elite Processes

2016 ◽  
pp. 61-95
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Transitions ◽  
Distributive Conflict

Inequality, Development, and the Weak Democracy Syndrome

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Terence Teo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Reaction Model ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Democratic Transitions ◽  
Authoritarian Rule ◽  
Inequality Measures ◽  
Causal Processes ◽  
Distributive Conflict

This chapter explores the interrelationships between inequality, economic development, and the so-called weak democracy syndrome. More specifically, it analyzes the effect of inequality on reversions in general and on the distributive conflict cases in particular, as well as some theoretical alternatives, including modernization theories of democratic transitions. It first considers the elite-reaction model of reversion before proposing an alternative, which places greater weight on institutional and economic factors. It then examines the determinants of reversions to authoritarian rule more generally as well as those that might be uniquely associated with elite-reaction and populist reversions. It shows that despite differences in proximate causal processes, the possibility that cases of reversion to autocracy and elite-reaction reversions can be traced to common causal roots in the weak democracy syndrome. The chapter concludes by assessing underlying factors that distinguish “reverters” from “survivors,” including inequality, measures of political institutionalization, and economic performance.

Modeling Democratic Transitions

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Terence Teo
Keyword(s):  
Collective Action ◽  
Political Mobilization ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Mass Mobilization ◽  
Democratic Transitions ◽  
The Third ◽  
Transitions To Democracy ◽  
Distributive Conflict ◽  
Mass Protest ◽  
Prairie Fire

This chapter examines why some democratic transitions were driven by mass mobilization, while others appeared to be predominantly elite processes, with a greater role for international influences as well. It first outlines core theoretical arguments about the way authoritarian regimes and the capacity for collective action influence transitions to democracy before discussing some statistical modeling of transitions during the Third Wave. Contrary to “prairie fire” models of political mobilization, this chapter shows that enduring social organizations play a major role in fomenting the mass protest that drives distributive conflict transitions, particularly unions and ethnonationalist organizations. Moreover, it provides evidence that these factors do not give us purchase in explaining elite-led transitions.

Inequality and Transitions to Democracy

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephan Haggard ◽  
Robert R. Kaufman
Keyword(s):  
Rational Choice ◽  
Regime Change ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Sample Period ◽  
Democratic Transitions ◽  
The Third ◽  
Transitions To Democracy ◽  
Distributive Conflict ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The Universe

This chapter explores the relationship between inequality, distributive conflict, and regime change during the Third Wave of democratic transitions (1980–2008). It first provides an overview of the theory and existing quantitative findings on the link between inequality and democratic transitions before discussing the results obtained by using an empirical approach that selects all transitions in the relevant sample period identified in the Polity and CGV datasets. It shows that about half of the transitions analyzed are the result of the mobilized de facto power envisioned by both the sociological and rational choice distributive conflict theories. Cases of democratization driven by distributive conflict constituted only slightly more than half of the universe of transitions during the period, and neither transitions in general nor those driven by distributive conflict were correlated with economic inequality. The emergence of democracy in the advanced industrial states stemmed in part from fundamental changes in class structures.

Conclusion

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephan Haggard ◽  
Robert R. Kaufman
Keyword(s):  
Third Wave ◽  
Political Rights ◽  
Democratic Transitions ◽  
Regime Changes ◽  
The Third ◽  
The World ◽  
Development Institutions ◽  
Democratic Rule ◽  
Distributive Conflict ◽  
The Impact

This book has examined prevalent structural approaches to democratization, including modernization and distributive conflict theories, by testing them against the experience of the Third Wave. It has shown that the democratic transitions during the period marked a fundamental expansion of opportunities for people around the world to exercise political rights and hold their leaders accountable. However, the regime changes of those decades also included instances of reversion to autocracy and increasing evidence of the resilience of authoritarian rule. This conclusion summarizes the book's findings and considers their relevance for the period since 2008, focusing in particular on the impact of factors such as inequality, economic development, institutions, collective action, and distributive conflicts on transitions to and from democratic rule. It also revisits the definitions of democracy and democratization as spelled out in the book.

Distributive Conflict Transitions

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephan Haggard ◽  
Robert R. Kaufman
Keyword(s):  
Collective Action ◽  
Causal Process ◽  
Theoretical Interest ◽  
Mass Mobilization ◽  
Democratic Transitions ◽  
The Social ◽  
Political Entrepreneurs ◽  
Distributive Conflict ◽  
Process Observation

This chapter examines the role of institutions and collective action in distributive conflict transitions by focusing on causal process observation of the distributive conflict and elite-led transition processes. Selecting on the dependent variable, it considers all of the cases in the Polity and CGV datasets with respect to variables of core theoretical interest: the authoritarian status quo, the organizational foundations of mass mobilization, and features of the exit of authoritarian rulers. The chapter first explains how the nature of authoritarian regimes can affect modes of transition, drawing comparisons with cases of elite-led transitions, before discussing both the repressiveness of the system and the social and economic targets of repression. It then explores the strategies of regime opponents and how authoritarian exit actually occurs in the distributive conflict cases. It also investigates the role played by political parties and political entrepreneurs in democratic transitions.

Inequality and Regime Change: Democratic Transitions and the Stability of Democratic Rule

2012 ◽  
Vol 106 (3) ◽  
pp. 495-516 ◽  
Author(s):  
STEPHAN HAGGARD ◽  
ROBERT R. KAUFMAN
Keyword(s):  
Causal Mechanism ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Causal Process ◽  
Democratic Transitions ◽  
Causal Pathways ◽  
Democratic Rule ◽  
Distributive Conflict ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Process Observation

Recent work by Carles Boix and Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson has focused on the role of inequality and distributive conflict in transitions to and from democratic rule. We assess these claims through causal process observation, using an original qualitative dataset on democratic transitions and reversions during the “third wave” from 1980 to 2000. We show that distributive conflict, a key causal mechanism in these theories, is present in just over half of all transition cases. Against theoretical expectations, a substantial number of these transitions occur in countries with high levels of inequality. Less than a third of all reversions are driven by distributive conflicts between elites and masses. We suggest a variety of alternative causal pathways to both transitions and reversions.

Dictators and Democrats

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephan Haggard ◽  
Robert R. Kaufman
Keyword(s):  
First Century ◽  
Organizational Capabilities ◽  
Mass Mobilization ◽  
Democratic Transitions ◽  
Authoritarian Rule ◽  
Emerging Democracies ◽  
Regime Changes ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Transitions To Democracy ◽  
Multiple Routes

From the 1980s through the first decade of the twenty-first century, the spread of democracy across the developing and postcommunist worlds transformed the global political landscape. What drove these changes and what determined whether the emerging democracies would stabilize or revert to authoritarian rule? This book takes a comprehensive look at the transitions to and from democracy in recent decades. Deploying both statistical and qualitative analysis, the book engages with theories of democratic change and advocates approaches that emphasize political and institutional factors. While inequality has been a prominent explanation for democratic transitions, the book argues that its role has been limited, and elites as well as masses can drive regime change. Examining seventy-eight cases of democratic transition and twenty-five cases of reversion to autocracy since 1980, the book shows how differences in authoritarian regimes and organizational capabilities shape popular protest and elite initiatives in transitions to democracy, and how institutional weaknesses cause some democracies to fail. The determinants of democracy lie in the strength of existing institutions and the public's capacity to engage in collective action. There are multiple routes to democracy, but those growing out of mass mobilization may provide more checks on incumbents than those emerging from intra-elite bargains. Moving beyond well-known beliefs regarding regime changes, this book explores the conditions under which transitions to democracy are likely to arise.

Police in Africa

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sierra Leone ◽  
Police Officers ◽  
Political Systems ◽  
Democratic Transitions ◽  
State Institutions ◽  
Security Issues ◽  
Self Perceptions ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Everyday Practices ◽  
Police Forces

State police forces in Africa are a curiously neglected subject of study, even within the framework of security issues and African states. This book brings together criminologists, anthropologists, sociologists, historians, political scientists and others who have engaged with police forces across the continent and the publics with whom they interact to provide street-level perspectives from below and inside Africa’s police forces. The contributors consider historical trajectories and particular configurations of police power within wider political systems, then examine the ‘inside view’ of police forces as state institutions – the challenges, preoccupations, professional ethics and self-perceptions of police officers – and finally look at how African police officers go about their work in terms of everyday practices and engagements with the public.The studies span the continent, from South Africa to Sierra Leone, and illustrate similarities and differences in Anglophone, Francophone and Lusophone states, post-socialist, post-military and post-conflict contexts, and amid both centralizsation and devolution of policing powers, democratic transitions and new illiberal regimes, all the while keeping a strong ethnographic focus on police officers and their work.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document