Causal Discovery with Confounding Cascade Nonlinear Additive Noise Models

Identification of causal direction between a causal-effect pair from observed data has recently attracted much attention. Various methods based on functional causal models have been proposed to solve this problem, by assuming the causal process satisfies some (structural) constraints and showing that the reverse direction violates such constraints. The nonlinear additive noise model has been demonstrated to be effective for this purpose, but the model class does not allow any confounding or intermediate variables between a cause pair–even if each direct causal relation follows this model. However, omitting the latent causal variables is frequently encountered in practice. After the omission, the model does not necessarily follow the model constraints. As a consequence, the nonlinear additive noise model may fail to correctly discover causal direction. In this work, we propose a confounding cascade nonlinear additive noise model to represent such causal influences–each direct causal relation follows the nonlinear additive noise model but we observe only the initial cause and final effect. We further propose a method to estimate the model, including the unmeasured confounding and intermediate variables, from data under the variational auto-encoder framework. Our theoretical results show that with our model, the causal direction is identifiable under suitable technical conditions on the data generation process. Simulation results illustrate the power of the proposed method in identifying indirect causal relations across various settings, and experimental results on real data suggest that the proposed model and method greatly extend the applicability of causal discovery based on functional causal models in nonlinear cases.

On safe post-selection for Bell tests with ideal detectors: Causal diagram approach

Reasoning about Bell nonlocality from the correlations observed in post-selected data is always a matter of concern. This is because conditioning on the outcomes is a source of non-causal correlations, known as a selection bias, rising doubts whether the conclusion concerns the actual causal process or maybe it is just an effect of processing the data. Yet, even in the idealised case without detection inefficiencies, post-selection is an integral part of experimental designs, not least because it is a part of the entanglement generation process itself. In this paper we discuss a broad class of scenarios with post-selection on multiple spatially distributed outcomes. A simple criterion is worked out, called the all-but-one principle, showing when the conclusions about nonlocality from breaking Bell inequalities with post-selected data remain in force. Generality of this result, attained by adopting the high-level diagrammatic tools of causal inference, provides safe grounds for systematic reasoning based on the standard form of multipartite Bell inequalities in a wide array of entanglement generation schemes, without worrying about the dangers of selection bias. In particular, it can be applied to post-selection defined by single-particle events in each detection chanel when the number of particles in the system is conserved.

The Effects of Service Crises and Recovery Resources on Market Reactions: An Event Study Analysis on Data Breach Announcements

Building on the literatures on service failure and crisis seriousness, we develop a framework to understand the effects of a specific type of service crisis (i.e., data breaches) and organizational recovery resources on the reactions of the stock market. To do so, we conduct an event study analysis with a sample of 217 data breach announcements, as our empirical context. Our analyses reveal that a firm suffers from negative abnormal stock returns when either the outcome of the breach (e.g., the breach of financial data) or its causal process (e.g., hacker attack) indicates a high level of seriousness. Moreover, considering organizational recovery resources, we find that in the case of financial data breaches, age, size, profitability, liquidity, and brand familiarity are the primary resources that can help a firm’s recovery. For hacker attacks, these organizational recovery resources include size, profitability, and liquidity.

Veto Points Revisited: The Role of Party System Institutionalization in Welfare State Change

This article argues that the impact of veto points on a government's policy outcomes depends crucially on the degree of institutionalization of the party system. Specifically, the article claims that two dimensions of party system institutionalization – stability of relations between parties and between parties and voters – condition the ability of the opposition to block governments' policy plans through veto points. It showcases this argument by applying the method of causal process tracing to a comparative analysis of health policy reforms in Slovakia (2002–2004) and Hungary (2006–2008).

A longitudinal analysis of the reciprocal relationship between academic procrastination, study satisfaction, and dropout intentions in higher education

Student dropout is a multi-causal process. Different theoretical models on student dropout consider dysfunctional study behavior (e.g., academic procrastination) and low study satisfaction as possible determinants of students’ dropout intentions during their university studies. However, these models neglect contemporary conceptualizations that assume reverse relationships between dropout intentions and other determinants of the dropout process. Until now, empirical evidence on these assumptions is scant. The present three-wave longitudinal study explored the reciprocal relationships between academic procrastination, study satisfaction, and dropout intentions over one semester. To this end, we used data of N = 326 undergraduate students enrolled in mathematics and law. Our latent cross-lagged panel model replicated existing empirical cross-sectional findings between the variables (i.e., academic procrastination, study satisfaction, and dropout intentions). Regarding the longitudinal relations, as expected, the cross-lagged effects showed that higher dropout intentions significantly related to subsequent higher academic procrastination and lower study satisfaction. Unexpectedly, academic procrastination did not significantly relate to subsequent dropout intentions. Additionally, higher study satisfaction significantly associated with subsequent higher dropout intentions—possibly due to unfulfilled expectations. Further, higher study satisfaction significantly related to subsequent higher procrastination—possibly due to more confidence among satisfied students. Our results broaden the view on dropout intentions as part of the dynamic interplay of student dropout determinants and the need to refine dropout models’ assumptions accordingly. Practically, realistic expectations seem important to reduce dropout intentions. Further, student counselors should have a closer look at the reasons for academic procrastination to develop individual solutions for this dysfunctional behavior.

Memory Disjunctivism: a Causal Theory

Relationalists about episodic memory must endorse a disjunctivist theory of memory-experience according to which cases of genuine memory and cases of total confabulation involve distinct kinds of mental event with different natures. This paper is concerned with a pair of arguments against this view, which are analogues of the ‘causal argument’ and the ‘screening off argument’ that have been pressed in recent literature against relationalist (and hence disjunctivist) theories of perception. The central claim to be advanced is that to deal with these two arguments, memory disjunctivists both can and should draw on resources that are standardly appealed to by rival common factor theories of episodic memory, and, in particular, to the idea that genuine memories and merely apparent ones are to be distinguished, at least in part, in terms of the distinctive ways in which they are caused. On the proposed view, there are substantive causal constraints associated both with cases of genuine memory and with cases of mere confabulation. The resulting theory thus tells us something important about the nature both of genuine memories and of mere confabulations, namely, that such experiences must be caused in certain distinctive ways and cannot occur except as the result of a distinctive sort of causal process. In addition, the theory enables the disjunctivist to offer a unified response to an important pair of arguments against her view.

Military Organizational Culture in Protest Response

When mass protests overwhelm the capacity of the police, civilian authorities often rely on soldiers to restore order. I argue that the military relies on historical precedents to guide its institutional response to protests. Soldiers rely on the military's organizational culture, a set of shared values, assumptions and beliefs, to guide their decision making. Military responses, from violent repression to complete disengagement, are driven by soldiers' shared understandings about their proper roles and missions, duties and responsibilities, and relationship to both ruler and ruled. Evidence from the Arab Spring protests of 2010-2011, and causal process tracing in the Tunisian case, provide support for the theory. The role of the military in producing Tunisia's largely nonviolent, prodemocratic regime transition has been widely lauded by scholars and policymakers alike. However, existing explanations for this outcome – namely, the lack of regime patronage toward military officers – do not fit the observed pattern of military response. Rather than move to oust Ben Ali, the military was generally loyal and never disobeyed his orders. Instead, the army's culture of restraint led soldiers to intervene to defend state institutions, but to avoid arbitrating or escalating the dispute.

Attrition as a bottom-up pathway to subnational democratization

Oftentimes, democracy is not spread out evenly over the territory of a country. Instead, pockets of authoritarianism can persist within a democratic system. A growing body of literature questions how such subnational authoritarian enclaves can be democratized. Despite fascinating insights, all existing pathways rely on the actions of elites and are therefore top-down. This article seeks to kick-start the discussion on a bottom-up pathway to subnational democratization, by proposing the attrition mechanism. This mechanism consists of four parts and is the product of abductive inference through theory-building causal process tracing. The building blocks consist of subnational democratization literature, social movement theory, and original empirical data gathered during extensive field research. This case study focuses on the ‘Dynasty Slayer’ in the province of Isabela, the Philippines, where civil society actors used the attrition mechanism to facilitate subnational democratization. This study implies that civil society actors in subnational authoritarian enclaves have agency.

Climbing Mount Probable

Chapter 8 provides the formal basis to recognize biases in the introduction of variation as a cause of evolutionary biases. The shifting-gene-frequencies theory of the Modern Synthesis posits a “buffet” view in which evolution is merely a process of shifting the frequencies of pre-existing alleles, without new mutations. Within this theory, mutation is represented like selection or drift, as a “force” that shifts frequencies. Yet, within a broader conception of evolution, a second kind of causal process is required: an introduction process that can shift a frequency upwards from 0, which selection and drift cannot do. Abstract models demonstrate the influence of biases in the introduction process in one-step and multi-step adaptive walks. Such biases do not require mutation biases per se, but may arise from effects of development, and from the differential accessibility of alternative forms in abstract possibility-spaces.