scholarly journals Precaution, Social Distancing and Tests in a Model of Epidemic Disease

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesc Obiols-Homs

Abstract I develop an extension of a canonical epidemiology model in which the policy in place determines the probability of transmission of an epidemic disease during economic and social interaction. I use the model to evaluate the effects of isolating symptomatic individuals, of increasing social distancing and of tests such as polymerase chain reaction – PCR – or Rapid Diagnostic Test that discriminate between currently infected agents, and its combination with a serology test like Neutralization Assay that is able to discriminate between immune and vulnerable healthy individuals, together with the role of enforcement to prevent interactions involving infected but asymptomatic agents. I find that isolating symptomatic individuals has a large effect at delaying and reducing the pick of infections. The combination of this policy with a PCR test is likely to represents only a negligible improvement in the absence of enforcement, whereas with full enforcement there is an additional delaying and reduction in the pick of infections. Social distancing alone cannot achieve similar effects without incurring in enormous output losses. I explore the combined effect of social distancing at early stages of the epidemic with a following period of tests and find that the best outcome is obtained with a light reduction of human interaction for about three months together with a subsequent test of the population over 40 days.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Wykowska ◽  
Jairo Pérez-Osorio ◽  
Stefan Kopp

This booklet is a collection of the position statements accepted for the HRI’20 conference workshop “Social Cognition for HRI: Exploring the relationship between mindreading and social attunement in human-robot interaction” (Wykowska, Perez-Osorio & Kopp, 2020). Unfortunately, due to the rapid unfolding of the novel coronavirus at the beginning of the present year, the conference and consequently our workshop, were canceled. On the light of these events, we decided to put together the positions statements accepted for the workshop. The contributions collected in these pages highlight the role of attribution of mental states to artificial agents in human-robot interaction, and precisely the quality and presence of social attunement mechanisms that are known to make human interaction smooth, efficient, and robust. These papers also accentuate the importance of the multidisciplinary approach to advance the understanding of the factors and the consequences of social interactions with artificial agents.


Author(s):  
Sara Keränen ◽  
Santeri Suutarinen ◽  
Rahul Mallick ◽  
Johanna P. Laakkonen ◽  
Diana Guo ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Brain arteriovenous malformations (bAVM) may rupture causing disability or death. BAVM vessels are characterized by abnormally high flow that in general triggers expansive vessel remodeling mediated by cyclo-oxygenase-2 (COX2), the target of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. We investigated whether COX2 is expressed in bAVMs and whether it associates with inflammation and haemorrhage in these lesions. Methods Tissue was obtained from surgery of 139 bAVMs and 21 normal Circle of Willis samples. The samples were studied with immunohistochemistry and real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Clinical data was collected from patient records. Results COX2 expression was found in 78% (109/139) of the bAVMs and localized to the vessels’ lumen or medial layer in 70% (95/135) of the bAVMs. Receptors for prostaglandin E2, a COX2-derived mediator of vascular remodeling, were found in the endothelial and smooth muscle cells and perivascular inflammatory cells of bAVMs. COX2 was expressed by infiltrating inflammatory cells and correlated with the extent of inflammation (r = .231, p = .007, Spearman rank correlation). COX2 expression did not associate with haemorrhage. Conclusion COX2 is induced in bAVMs, and possibly participates in the regulation of vessel wall remodelling and ongoing inflammation. Role of COX2 signalling in the pathobiology and clinical course of bAVMs merits further studies.


Biomolecules ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 156
Author(s):  
Mohammad Al Hasan ◽  
Patricia E. Martin ◽  
Xinhua Shu ◽  
Steven Patterson ◽  
Chris Bartholomew

GPR56 is required for the adipogenesis of preadipocytes, and the role of one of its ligands, type III collagen (ColIII), was investigated here. ColIII expression was examined by reverse transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction, immunoblotting and immunostaining, and its function investigated by knockdown and genome editing in 3T3-L1 cells. Adipogenesis was assessed by oil red O staining of neutral cell lipids and production of established marker and regulator proteins. siRNA-mediated knockdown significantly reduced Col3a1 transcripts, ColIII protein and lipid accumulation in 3T3-L1 differentiating cells. Col3a1−/− 3T3-L1 genome-edited cell lines abolished adipogenesis, demonstrated by a dramatic reduction in adipogenic moderators: Pparγ2 (88%) and C/ebpα (96%) as well as markers aP2 (93%) and oil red O staining (80%). Col3a1−/− 3T3-L1 cells displayed reduced cell adhesion, sustained active β-catenin and deregulation of fibronectin (Fn) and collagen (Col4a1, Col6a1) extracellular matrix gene transcripts. Col3a1−/− 3T3-L1 cells also had dramatically reduced actin stress fibres. We conclude that ColIII is required for 3T3-L1 preadipocyte adipogenesis as well as the formation of actin stress fibres. The phenotype of Col3a1−/− 3T3-L1 cells is very similar to that of Gpr56−/− 3T3-L1 cells, suggesting a functional relationship between ColIII and Gpr56 in preadipocytes.


Author(s):  
Vikash Kumar Gupta ◽  
Buthaina Mohammad Alkandari ◽  
Wasif Mohammed ◽  
Mohsen Ahmed Abdelmohsen ◽  
Mohammad Gaber Abdullah Mohammad

AbstractStudies available in the literature have shown alterations in blood coagulation tests in severe cases of COVID-19 pneumonia, with a significant risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). Since microvascular thrombosis is a well-known fact in COVID-19 disease, requiring therapeutic anticoagulation, low-molecular weight heparin (LMWH) in prophylactic dose is a part of the clinical management of hospitalized COVID-19 patients. In this scenario, we describe three cases of abdominal spontaneous retroperitoneal hematoma (SRH) in hospitalized reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR)-confirmed COVID-19 patients.


2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreza Aruska de Souza Santos ◽  
Darlan da Silva Candido ◽  
William Marciel de Souza ◽  
Lewis Buss ◽  
Sabrina L. Li ◽  
...  

AbstractBrazil has one of the fastest-growing COVID-19 epidemics worldwide. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been adopted at the municipal level with asynchronous actions taken across 5,568 municipalities and the Federal District. This paper systematises the fragmented information on NPIs reporting on a novel dataset with survey responses from 4,027 mayors, covering 72.3% of all municipalities in the country. This dataset responds to the urgency to track and share findings on fragmented policies during the COVID-19 pandemic. Quantifying NPIs can help to assess the role of interventions in reducing transmission. We offer spatial and temporal details for a range of measures aimed at implementing social distancing and the dates when these measures were relaxed by local governments.


2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 680-697
Author(s):  
Jonah Koetke ◽  
Karina Schumann ◽  
Tenelle Porter

The COVID-19 pandemic necessitates adherence to scientifically supported prevention strategies, such as social distancing. Although most Americans support social distancing, a subset of conservatives reject the scientific consensus on this matter. We explored why some conservatives reject social distancing, focusing on how trust in science contributes to ideological differences in social distancing intentions. In two studies, we replicated recent research demonstrating that conservatives report lower support for social distancing compared to liberals. However, in Study 1 we found support for a moderating role of trust in science, such that conservatives reported stronger intentions to socially distance when they had high trust in science. In Study 2, we enhanced trust in messaging about social distancing – and in turn, social distancing intentions among conservatives – by having the messages come from a Republican (vs. unidentified) government official. These studies provide insight into how we can increase adherence to public health recommendations regarding COVID-19.


2021 ◽  
Vol 65 (2) ◽  
pp. 157-177
Author(s):  
Nahyan Fancy ◽  
Monica H. Green

AbstractThe recent suggestion that the late medieval Eurasian plague pandemic, the Black Death, had its origins in the thirteenth century rather than the fourteenth century has brought new scrutiny to texts reporting ‘epidemics’ in the earlier period. Evidence both from Song China and Iran suggests that plague was involved in major sieges laid by the Mongols between the 1210s and the 1250s, including the siege of Baghdad in 1258 which resulted in the fall of the Abbasid caliphate. In fact, re-examination of multiple historical accounts in the two centuries after the siege of Baghdad shows that the role of epidemic disease in the Mongol attacks was commonly known among chroniclers in Syria and Egypt, raising the question why these outbreaks have been overlooked in modern historiography of plague. The present study looks in detail at the evidence in Arabic sources for disease outbreaks after the siege of Baghdad in Iraq and its surrounding regions. We find subtle factors in the documentary record to explain why, even though plague received new scrutiny from physicians in the period, it remained a minor feature in stories about the Mongol invasion of western Asia. In contemporary understandings of the genesis of epidemics, the Mongols were not seen to have brought plague to Baghdad; they caused plague to arise by their rampant destruction. When an even bigger wave of plague struck the Islamic world in the fourteenth century, no association was made with the thirteenth-century episode. Rather, plague was now associated with the Mongol world as a whole.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 454
Author(s):  
Esther Viedma ◽  
Elias Dahdouh ◽  
José González-Alba ◽  
Sara González-Bodi ◽  
Laura Martínez-García ◽  
...  

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was first detected in Madrid, Spain, on 25 February 2020. It increased in frequency very fast and by the end of May more than 70,000 cases had been confirmed by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). To study the lineages and the diversity of the viral population during this first epidemic wave in Madrid we sequenced 224 SARS-CoV-2 viral genomes collected from three hospitals from February to May 2020. All the known major lineages were found in this set of samples, though B.1 and B.1.5 were the most frequent ones, accounting for more than 60% of the sequences. In parallel with the B lineages and sublineages, the D614G mutation in the Spike protein sequence was detected soon after the detection of the first coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) case in Madrid and in two weeks became dominant, being found in 80% of the samples and remaining at this level during all the study periods. The lineage composition of the viral population found in Madrid was more similar to the European population than to the publicly available Spanish data, underlining the role of Madrid as a national and international transport hub. In agreement with this, phylodynamic analysis suggested multiple independent entries before the national lockdown and air transportation restrictions.


Author(s):  
Damiano Caruso ◽  
Francesco Pucciarelli ◽  
Marta Zerunian ◽  
Balaji Ganeshan ◽  
Domenico De Santis ◽  
...  

Abstract Purpose To evaluate the potential role of texture-based radiomics analysis in differentiating Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) pneumonia from pneumonia of other etiology on Chest CT. Materials and methods One hundred and twenty consecutive patients admitted to Emergency Department, from March 8, 2020, to April 25, 2020, with suspicious of COVID-19 that underwent Chest CT, were retrospectively analyzed. All patients presented CT findings indicative for interstitial pneumonia. Sixty patients with positive COVID-19 real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and 60 patients with negative COVID-19 RT-PCR were enrolled. CT texture analysis (CTTA) was manually performed using dedicated software by two radiologists in consensus and textural features on filtered and unfiltered images were extracted as follows: mean intensity, standard deviation (SD), entropy, mean of positive pixels (MPP), skewness, and kurtosis. Nonparametric Mann–Whitney test assessed CTTA ability to differentiate positive from negative COVID-19 patients. Diagnostic criteria were obtained from receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Results Unfiltered CTTA showed lower values of mean intensity, MPP, and kurtosis in COVID-19 positive patients compared to negative patients (p = 0.041, 0.004, and 0.002, respectively). On filtered images, fine and medium texture scales were significant differentiators; fine texture scale being most significant where COVID-19 positive patients had lower SD (p = 0.004) and MPP (p = 0.004) compared to COVID-19 negative patients. A combination of the significant texture features could identify the patients with positive COVID-19 from negative COVID-19 with a sensitivity of 60% and specificity of 80% (p = 0.001). Conclusions Preliminary evaluation suggests potential role of CTTA in distinguishing COVID-19 pneumonia from other interstitial pneumonia on Chest CT.


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