A class of identifiable birth-death models

In a striking result, Louca and Pennell (2020) recently proved that a large class of birth-death models are statistically unidentifiable from lineage-through-time (LTT) data. Specifically, they showed that any pair of sufficiently smooth birth and death rate functions is "congruent" to an infinite collection of other rate functions, all of which have the same likelihood for any LTT vector of any dimension. This fact has distressing implications for the thousands of studies which have utilized birth-death models to study evolution. In this paper, we qualify their finding by proving that an alternative and widely used class of birth-death models is indeed identifiable. Specifically, we show that piecewise constant birth-death models can, in principle, be consistently estimated and distinguished from one another, given a sufficiently large extant time tree and some knowledge of the present day population. Subject to mild regularity conditions, we further show that any unidentifiable birth-death model class can be arbitrarily closely approximated by a class of identifiable models. The sampling requirements needed for our results to hold are explicit, and are expected to be satisfied in many contexts such as the phylodynamic analysis of a global pandemic.

Geographic and Phylodynamic Distribution of SARS-CoV-2 from Environmental Origin

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread globally. Understanding the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 contamination in the environment is essential for infection control policies. This study aims to provide a phylodynamic analysis and distribution pattern of SARS-CoV-2 from the environment in terms of Source, clades, lineages, and their location. Ninety (90) retrieved whole-genome sequences of environmental sources from GISAID were investigated to determine the evolutionary process of SARS-CoV-2 and mutation in the isolated nucleotide sequences. The analysis was carried out using R, MAFFT, and MEGA X software. Out of the five countries studied, Austria has the highest distribution with sixty-five samples (72.2%), and the highest isolates of 68 (75.6%) were from raw sewage. The highest clade in circulation as obtained from the study is G with lineages B. The phylogeny of SARS-CoV-2 whole-genome sequences from Austria, the United States, China, Brazil, and Liechtenstein indicated that the SARS-CoV-2 viruses were all clustered together, irrespective of sequence geographic location. The study concluded by demonstrating a clear interconnection between the phylogeny of SARS-CoV-2 isolates from various geographic locations, all of which were locked in the same cluster regardless of their environment specimen. Thus, depicting the possibility of their origination from a common ancestor.

The role of interspecies recombinations in the evolution of antibiotic resistant pneumococci

Multidrug-resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae emerge through the modification of core genome loci through short inter­species homologous recombinations and acquisition of gene cassettes. Both occurred in the otherwise contrasting histories of the antibiotic-resistant S. pneumoniae lineages PMEN3 and PMEN9. A single PMEN3 clade spread globally, evading vaccine-induced immunity through frequent serotype switching, whereas locally-circulating PMEN9 clades independently gained resistance. Both lineages repeatedly integrated Tn916 and Tn1207.1, conferring tetracycline and macrolide resistance respectively, through homologous recombination importing sequences originating in other species. A species-wide dataset found over 100 instances of such interspecific acquisitions of resistance cassettes and flanking homologous arms. Phylodynamic analysis of the most commonly-sampled Tn1207.1 insertion in PMEN9, originating from a commensal and disrupting a competence gene, suggested its expansion across Germany was driven by a high ratio of macrolide-to-β-lactam consumption. Hence selection from antibiotic consumption was sufficient for these atypically large recombinations to overcome species boundaries across the pneumococcal chromosome.

Whole Genome or Single Genes? A Phylodynamic and Bibliometric Analysis of PRRSV

Diversity, ecology, and evolution of viruses are commonly determined through phylogenetics, an accurate tool for the identification and study of lineages with different pathological characteristics within the same species. In the case of PRRSV, evolutionary research has divided into two main branches based on the use of a specific gene (i.e., ORF5) or whole genome sequences as the input used to produce the phylogeny. In this study, we performed a review on PRRSV phylogenetic literature and characterized the spatiotemporal trends in research of single gene vs. whole genome evolutionary approaches. Finally, using publicly available data, we produced a Bayesian phylodynamic analysis following each research branch and compared the results to determine the pros and cons of each particular approach. This study provides an exploration of the two main phylogenetic research lines applied for PRRSV evolution, as well as an example of the differences found when both methods are applied to the same database. We expect that our results will serve as a guidance for future PRRSV phylogenetic research.

Phylodynamic assessment of control measures for highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemics in France

Phylodynamic methods have successfully been used to describe viral spread history but their applications for assessing specific control measures are rare. In 2016-17, France experienced a devastating epidemic of a highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (H5N8 clade 2.3.4.4b). Using 196 viral genomes, we conducted a phylodynamic analysis combined with generalised linear model and showed that the large-scale preventive culling of ducks significantly reduced the viral spread between départements (French administrative division). We also found that the virus likely spread more frequently between départements that shared borders, but the spread was not linked to duck transport between départements. Duck transport within départements increased the within-département transmission intensity, although the association was weak. Together, these results indicated that the virus spread in short-distances, either between adjacent départements or within départements. Results also suggested that the restrictions on duck transport within départements might not have stopped the viral spread completely. Overall, by testing specific hypothesis related to different control measures, we demonstrated that phylodynamics methods are capable of investigating the impacts of control measures on viral spread.

SARS-CoV-2 shifting transmission dynamics and hidden reservoirs potentially limit efficacy of public health interventions in Italy

We investigated SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in Italy, one of the countries hit hardest by the pandemic, using phylodynamic analysis of viral genetic and epidemiological data. We observed the co-circulation of multiple SARS-CoV-2 lineages over time, which were linked to multiple importations and characterized by large transmission clusters concomitant with a high number of infections. Subsequent implementation of a three-phase nationwide lockdown strategy greatly reduced infection numbers and hospitalizations. Yet we present evidence of sustained viral spread among sporadic clusters acting as “hidden reservoirs” during summer 2020. Mathematical modelling shows that increased mobility among residents eventually catalyzed the coalescence of such clusters, thus driving up the number of infections and initiating a new epidemic wave. Our results suggest that the efficacy of public health interventions is, ultimately, limited by the size and structure of epidemic reservoirs, which may warrant prioritization during vaccine deployment.