scholarly journals Bayesian Analysis of State Voter Registration Database Integrity

2022 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Cao ◽  
Seo-young Silvia Kim ◽  
R. Michael Alvarez
Keyword(s):  
Synthetic Data ◽  
State Level ◽  
Voter Registration ◽  
Multiple Response ◽  
Database Integrity ◽  
The People ◽  
Model Predictions ◽  
Registered Voters ◽  
Multivariate Multilevel Model ◽  
Response Variables

Abstract How do we ensure a statewide voter registration database’s accuracy and integrity, especially when the database depends on aggregating decentralized, sub-state data with different list maintenance practices? We develop a Bayesian multivariate multilevel model to account for correlated patterns of change over time in multiple response variables, and label statewide anomalies using deviations from model predictions. We apply our model to California’s 22 million registered voters, using 25 snapshots from the 2020 presidential election. We estimate countywide change rates for multiple response variables such as changes in voter’s partisan affiliation and jointly model these changes. The model outperforms a simple interquartile range (IQR) detection when tested with synthetic data. This is a proof-of-concept that demonstrates the utility of the Bayesian methodology, as despite the heterogeneity in list maintenance practices, a principled, statistical approach is useful. At the county level, the total numbers of anomalies are positively correlated with the average election cost per registered voter between 2017 and 2019. Given the recent efforts to modernize and secure voter list maintenance procedures in the For the People Act of 2021, we argue that checking whether counties or municipalities are behaving similarly at the state level is also an essential step in ensuring electoral integrity.

scholarly journals Bayesian Analysis of State Voter Registration Database Integrity

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Cao ◽  
Seo-young Silvia Kim ◽  
R. Michael Alvarez
Keyword(s):  
Synthetic Data ◽  
State Level ◽  
Voter Registration ◽  
Multiple Response ◽  
Database Integrity ◽  
The People ◽  
Model Predictions ◽  
Registered Voters ◽  
Multivariate Multilevel Model ◽  
Response Variables

How do we ensure a statewide voter registration database's accuracy and integrity, especially when the database depends on aggregating decentralized, sub-state data with different list maintenance practices? We develop a Bayesian multivariate multilevel model to account for correlated patterns of change over time in multiple response variables, and label statewide anomalies using deviations from model predictions. We apply our model to California's 22 million registered voters, using 25 snapshots from the 2020 presidential election. We estimate countywide change rates for multiple response variables such as changes in voter's partisan affiliation and jointly model these changes. The model outperforms a simple interquartile range (IQR) detection when tested with synthetic data. This is a proof-of-concept that demonstrates the utility of the Bayesian methodology, as despite the heterogeneity in list maintenance practices, a principled, statistical approach is useful. At the county level, the total numbers of anomalies are positively correlated with the average election cost per registered voter between 2017--2019. Given the recent efforts to modernize and secure voter list maintenance procedures in the For the People Act of 2021, we argue that checking whether counties or municipalities are behaving similarly at the state level is also an essential step in ensuring electoral integrity.

Enhancement of juvenile Caribbean spiny lobsters: an evaluation of changes in multiple response variables with the addition of large artificial shelters

Oecologia ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 151 (3) ◽  
pp. 401-416 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patricia Briones-Fourzán ◽  
Enrique Lozano-Álvarez ◽  
Fernando Negrete-Soto ◽  
Cecilia Barradas-Ortiz
Keyword(s):  
Multiple Response ◽  
Spiny Lobsters ◽  
Response Variables

The integration of cultures: music of the people of Kazakhstan

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 54-68
Author(s):  
Gulmira Mussagulova ◽  
Zulfiya Kassimova
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
State Level ◽  
The State ◽  
Cultural Integration ◽  
Cultural Centers ◽  
Historical Significance ◽  
The People ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Republic

The article is devoted to the consideration and study of the creativity of the most prominent representatives of the musical art of national ethnic groups, the role of the Assembly of the People of Kazakhstan, the identification of various criteria for the relationship of ethnic groups living in the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the peculiarities of their life, way of life, spheres of life, their relationship and views on the modern State, created by the first President of the Republic of Kazakhstan – Nursultan Nazarbayev. The core of the projects completed in the period from 2012 to 2017 includes not only historical facts and materials found from the State Archives, Central Scientific Library and the National Library of the Republic of Kazakhstan, but also an overview of active participation in many events related to the Assembly of the People of Kazakhstan, to the 20th and 25th anniversaries of the Assembly of the People of Kazakhstan, associated with the considered ethnocultural centers and representatives of certain ethnic groups. Through the media, participation in international scientific and practical conferences, previously unknown facts of the studied ethnic groups were highlighted, and their relationship with the main population of the republic, their contribution to the multinational culture of Kazakhstan, which in turn confirms the prudent, orderly, and wise policy of Elbasy (The Head of the State). The authors use the following methods in the study: historical-chronological, source study, analytical, comparative, and interviewing. Since 2012, in Kazakh musicology, the musical heritage of ethnic groups inhabiting Kazakhstan has been studied. A unique opportunity for a full-fledged study of their work is presented thanks to the activities of the Assembly of the People of Kazakhstan and systematic state policy, under the leadership of the First President. In 2017, the second book, entitled "The Historical Significance of the Assembly of the People of Kazakhstan in Interethnic Cultural Integration", was published, which became a fruitful result of the research project in 2015–2017. This book is a kind of continuation of the series, which began in the previous collective monograph "The Musical Art of the People of Kazakhstan", which was published at the end of 2014 and has undergone extensive testing not only among professionals, but also among fans of the musical culture of multinational Kazakhstan. Such research projects, which were not previously carried out in the domestic humanitarian science, are significant and in demand, since before their appearance in domestic musicology there were only separate reports on the activities of cultural centers, articles in the media and on Internet sites, a brief analysis of the work of specific masters in publications devoted to the study of the history of musical art of numerous national cultures. They give only fragmentary ideas about the art of the ethnic groups in question. The relevance and insufficient elaboration of these problems served as the basis for the study "The historical significance of the Assembly of the People of Kazakhstan in interethnic cultural integration", carried out by the Department of Musicology of the M. Auezov Institute of Literature and Art of the Committee of Science of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The implementation of such a complex and significant topic for the national musical art, coverage of the activities of large cultural centers of different ethnic groups, and much more makes it possible to determine the contribution of each of them to the history of Kazakhstan's development and outline ways to preserve the traditional folklore heritage and identity. In this regard, these projects are relevant and socially and politically significant at the state level.

The Promise and Limitations of Synthetic Data as a Strategy to Expand Access to State-Level Multi-Agency Longitudinal Data

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 616-647 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Bonnéry ◽  
Yi Feng ◽  
Angela K. Henneberger ◽  
Tessa L. Johnson ◽  
Mark Lachowicz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Longitudinal Data ◽  
Synthetic Data ◽  
State Level

An Alternative Route to Voting Reform: the Right to Vote, Voter Registration, Redistricting and U.S. State Constitutions

2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (3) ◽  
pp. 465-489 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nancy Martorano Miller ◽  
Keith E Hamm ◽  
Maria Aroca ◽  
Ronald D Hedlund
Keyword(s):  
State Level ◽  
Voter Registration ◽  
State Court ◽  
Voting Rights Act ◽  
Constitutional Amendments ◽  
State Constitutions ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Right To Vote ◽  
The Right ◽  
Election Laws

Abstract The U.S. Constitution reserves to states the responsibility for regulating most aspects of elections. Recently, the Supreme Court has weakened the tools for federal officials to challenge state elections practices under the Voting Rights Act and signaled a great deal of deference to state authority over election law. As a result, state legislatures’ latitude to regulate elections is constrained primarily by state constitutions. With voter ID laws and partisan gerrymandering commanding considerable attention in recent years, it is important to investigate the importance of state constitutions in this area. In this article, we discuss recent efforts by voting and election reformers to utilize state constitutions to challenge restrictive voting laws and partisan gerrymandering, whether by enacting state constitutional amendments or relying on state constitutional provisions in state court litigation. We also highlight the diverse and often underappreciated landscape of voting and election laws in the states and the resources available to reformers at the state level by analyzing state constitutional provisions bearing on the right to vote, voter registration, and redistricting.

scholarly journals Absentia Voter in the Election of Regional Head in Situbondo Regency Year 2015

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 34
Author(s):  
Rupiarsieh Rupiarsieh
Keyword(s):  
Political Culture ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Boarding School ◽  
New Order ◽  
Political Awareness ◽  
Political Factors ◽  
Democracy Education ◽  
The People ◽  
Opposing Party ◽  
Registered Voters

Since the downfall of the New Order regime, the regional head election is done directly. Before 2005, it was elected by the Local House of Representatives (Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat Daerah, DPRD). However, since the effectuation of Constitution No. 32 year 2004 said that the regional head was chosen directly by the people and called as Pilkada. It was held in 2010 and 2015. In the 2015 elections in Situbondo, the number of absentia voter is still a problem. It shows that the public has little or no political participation in using their right to vote freely. It is very influential on democracy and acceptance of the elected leaders. The 2015, it showed that the number of registered voters is 509,111. Voters, who using their voting rights only 378,953. The valid votes 372,555, divided to first candidate in number of 18,997 (5%), second candidate in number of 158,934 (43%), and the third candidate in number of 194 624 or 52%. Total absentia voter is 130,058 (25%). By using descriptive qualitative method, the simultaneous elections can be analyzed. The high absentee voter was more due to political factors, lack of political awareness because the majority of education level is still low, and there are patrialism in political culture is. All the leader must have the blessing from the moslem leader (Kiayi). The voters are not in accordance with the existing leader candidate, do not attend the election. The voters will attend the election by following the advice from the Kiayi. They chose their regency leader not in freely condition. If the elected regent unable to accommodate the interests of the opposing party (absentia voter) could become a powerful political opponent. A new factor affecting the absentee voter is political culture. The political culture and democracy education conducted by involving the Kiayi, and directed at women voters and beginner-voter, because the majority of voters are women and the beginner-voter are in the moslem boarding school (called: pasantren), that manage by the Kiayi.

scholarly journals Tabulation of Multiple Responses

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 92-122 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ben Jann
Keyword(s):  
Data Structure ◽  
Survey Research ◽  
Drug Addiction ◽  
Multiple Response ◽  
Significance Tests ◽  
Multiple Responses ◽  
Interview Question ◽  
Effective Analysis ◽  
Response Variables

Although multiple-response questions are quite common in survey research, Stata's official release does not provide much capability for an effective analysis of multiple-response variables. For example, in a study on drug addiction an interview question might be, “Which substances did you consume during the last four weeks?” The respondents just list all the drugs they took, if any; e.g., an answer could be “cannabis, cocaine, heroin” or “ecstasy, cannabis” or “none”, etc. Usually, the responses to such questions are stored as a set of variables and, therefore, cannot be easily tabulated. I will address this issue here and present a new module to compute one- and two-way tables of multiple responses. The module supports several types of data structure, provides significance tests, and offers various options to control the computation and display of the results. In addition, tools to create graphs of multiple-response distributions are presented.

scholarly journals A study of the statutory background for worker cooperatives in the US: a proposal for a regulatory framework

2019 ◽  
pp. 19-54
Author(s):  
Sofía Arana Landín
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Limited Liability ◽  
State Level ◽  
Regulatory Framework ◽  
Economic Stress ◽  
Agricultural Cooperatives ◽  
The People ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Worker Cooperatives ◽  
Worker Cooperative

The lack of a clear and comprehensive regulatory framework for worker cooperatives is one of the main causes for their scarcity in the USA, as it causes ignorance and uncertainty even though cooperatives are one of several forms of doing business recognized by the Internal Revenue Code (like sole proprietorships, partnerships, limited liability companies, LLC’s, and Subchapter S corporations). Tax laws divide businesses into those categories, each with its own special tax provisions and worker cooperatives try to fit into any of those forms of business while “acting on a cooperative basis”, thus, having their own specificities. Even though at a State level there are regulations for agricultural cooperatives in all States, there are only less than 30 States that have either worker cooperative regulations, general cooperative regulations or consumer regulations which worker cooperatives can use. However, the situation in the USA now demands for these entities. The fact that a particular attention is being given to worker cooperatives as an aftermath of the recent crisis is not news, as we have seen, historically2, cooperatives have traditionally emerged in situations where the public sector was unable to provide the response required by the people, for instance in support for financial access, housing, or decent livelihoods. As ZEULI and CROPP state it: “The historical development of cooperative businesses cannot be disconnected from the social and economic forces that shaped them. Co-ops then, as now, were created in times and places of economic stress and social upheaval”. Different studies during the previous recession show how worker cooperatives increase their turnover and number of jobs, while other enterprises shrink, being this the reason why their study at this moment becomes a must. Thus, there should be a minimum understanding and control of what a worker cooperative is in order to be able to register and act like a real worker cooperative. Quoting GUTNECHT “allowing something that is not a cooperative to call itself a cooperative squanders a precious asset – the goodwill and public trust that reposes in the word ‘cooperative’”. Thus, the USA is missing a very important instrument in order to fight against unemployment, inequality, income maldistribution and unsustainable development at a time when there is a conscience by a majority of the population in different movements that demand a change. This change is possible if educational, cultural and legal issues are properly addressed, as it has been done in other countries and higher instances, creating a fairer, equitable and more cohesive and sustainable society, thus a better world to live in. This paper aims to conduct a comparative statutory research on cooperative law for worker cooperatives in the USA, with a view of promoting an increased understanding within the academic and governmental communities, at a national and international level in order to promote worker cooperatives. In the case of New York public policies tacking this issue are already being devised. If this goal is achieved we will all benefit from them.Received: 26 April 2018 Accepted: 08 April2019Published online: 22 July 2019

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