scholarly journals Modeling Real Private Consumption Expenditure in Bulgaria after the Currency Board Implementation (1997-2005)

2015 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-89
Author(s):  
Aleksandar Vasilev
Keyword(s):  
Private Consumption ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Currency Board ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Consumption Function ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Consumption Decisions ◽  
Long Run

Abstract In this paper, an econometric model of consumption in Bulgaria for the period 1997-2005 is constructed. The Error-Correction Model (ECM) approach is employed and long-run relationship between household consumption and income was found. The primary purpose of this empirical paper is to get a better understanding of the factors driving household consumption in Bulgaria and to estimate a consumption function to be used for medium-term forecasting. It is shown that all households behave in a Keynesian way, basing their consumption decisions on current income.

scholarly journals POLA PENGELUARAN KONSUMSI RUMAHTANGGA TANI PENERIMA BANTUAN MODAL PRODUKSI TERNAK SAPI DI KECAMATAN TOMPASO BARAT KABUPATEN MINAHASA

ZOOTEC ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 459
Author(s):  
Christian Tangkere ◽  
S J.K Umboh ◽  
M A.V Manese ◽  
N M Santa
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Analysis ◽  
Food Consumption ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Livestock Production ◽  
Fish Production ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Cattle Production ◽  
Consumption Decisions ◽  
Production And Consumption

THE PATTERN OF HOUSEHOLD FARMERS CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE OF BENEFICIARIES OF CAPITAL ASSISTANCE FOR CATTLE PRODUCTION IN THE WESTERN TOMPASO DISTRICT OF MINAHASA REGENCY. Household farmers are one of the economic units that have a relationship with production and consumption decisions.  Assistance of livestock production capital obtained by household farmers allocated its use in the context of household consumption to maximize the utility or satisfaction of the household. This research aims to analyze the pattern of consumption expenditure on farmers households as a recipient of production capital assistance for livestock. The study used descriptive and quantitative analysis. The respondent of this research which is household farmer’s as one of the recipients of capital assistance that has been selling cows.  Patern of  household consumption expenditure by farmers as beneficiaries of capital assistance in the district of West Tompaso divided into: Food and Non-food consumption. Expenditure of food consumption differentiated two types which are expenditure of food consumption purchased and not purchased. The results showed that out of all three allocation of consumption expenditure is known that the allocation of food consumption expenditure of household farmers is divided in to the first; the largest purchased for fish production is 28.69 percent, second; the value expenditure of food consumption not purchased in food seasonings (29.94%), and the last one is the allocation of non-food consumption expenditure were on  clothing, footwear, and headgear (27.83%.) Keywords :Expenditure, consumption, households

Money and Household Consumption Expenditure in Developing Asia: Some Panel ARDL Evidence

2021 ◽  
pp. 001946622110624
Author(s):  
Ghanashyama Mahanty ◽  
Himanshu Sekhar Rout ◽  
Swayam Prava Mishra
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Final Consumption ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The role of money in influencing real economic activities has been a long-standing debate in macroeconomics. As per the Keynesian theory, household consumption expenditure plays a significant role in promoting economic growth. Given the rapid consumption-led growth pattern in the emerging Asia Pacific region, in this article, we attempt to assess the role of money in influencing household consumption expenditure, which propels economic growth. We employ a panel data set from 2005–2018 for 10 emerging Asian economies, covering Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Vietnam. Given the region’s heterogeneous nature, we employ a variant of the popular St Louise equation model with autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) panel framework based on pooled mean group (PMG) and dynamic fixed effect (DFE) models developed by Pesaran and Shin to study the underlying relationships. Both PMG and DFE models suggest a strong positive relationship between money and household consumption expenditure both in the long run and short run. After allowing for control variables such as government final consumption expenditure and interest rate, the relationships continue to hold steady. Further, the relationship holds true across both narrow (M1) and broad money (M3) measures. The government final consumption expenditure and interest rates do not have influence on household consumption expenditure in the long run, but they have an influence in the short run. JEL Codes: C23, O16, O47, E51, E31, E21

scholarly journals THE impact of remittance inflows on poverty in Botswana: an ARDL approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mercy. T. Musakwa ◽  
N. M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Infant Mortality ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Infant Mortality Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe growing pressure on governments to reduce poverty among other Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) through harnessing domestic and foreign sources has motivated studies on the relationship between poverty and different economic variables in many developing countries. This study investigates the impact of remittance on poverty in Botswana, employing time-series data from 1980 to 2017. The study employs two poverty proxies—household consumption expenditure and infant mortality rate to capture poverty in its multidimensional form and improve the robustness of the results. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach, the study finds that remittance inflows reduce poverty in Botswana—both in the short run and in the long run when infant mortality rate is used as a proxy. However, when poverty is measured by household consumption expenditure, remittance was found to have no impact on poverty in the short run and in the long run. The study, therefore, concludes that remittance inflows play a crucial role in reducing poverty and that Botswana can benefit immensely from the surge in remittance inflows by putting in place policies and structures that support remittance inflow.

scholarly journals The impact of foreign capital inflows on poverty in Vietnam: An empirical investigation

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 31-49
Author(s):  
Mercy T. Musakwa ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo ◽  
Sheilla Nyasha
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Capital ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Infant Mortality Rate ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Poverty Measure ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Foreign Capital Inflows ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study investigates the impact of foreign capital inflows on poverty in Vietnam, using annual time series data from 1990 to 2018. The study was motivated by the need to establish if burgeoning foreign capital inflows in Vietnam can support the poverty alleviation agenda. Foreign direct investment (FDI) and external debt were used as proxies for foreign capital inflows; and infant mortality rate, Human Development Index (HDI) and household consumption expenditure were used as poverty proxies. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach, the study found foreign direct investment to reduce poverty in the short run and long run when household consumption expenditure was used as a poverty measure. However, the study found FDI to worsen poverty in the short run when infant mortality rate and HDI were used as poverty proxies. The study found external debt to have poverty mitigating effect in the short run regardless of the poverty measure used and in the long run only when household consumption expenditure was used as a poverty measure.

scholarly journals The Impact of Covid-19 on The Effect Multiplier on The Household Consumption Function in Jakarta

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fahrul Riza ◽  
Michael Christianto Leonardo
Keyword(s):  
National Income ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Permanent Income ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Permanent Income Hypothesis ◽  
Consumption Function ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Consumption Expenditures ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of a decrease in aggregate income, due to activity restrictions during the Covid-19 pandemic, on household consumption expenditure in Jakarta. The research model is based on the Absolute and Permanent income hypothesis, to see the long-term and short-term effects of changes in income on consumption expenditure. The research method is quantitative by using annual data on consumption expenditure and income at current prices for the period 2003 to 2020. The analysis model uses OLS and ECM regression. The results showed that income has a significant effect on the equation of the short-run and long-run consumption function. The short-term income crisis has an impact on the increase in the multiplier coefficient. In the short term there will also be an adjustment in consumption expenditures, according to what is postulated in the permanent income hypothesis. This indicates that in the short term expansionary fiscal policy is effective in increasing aggregate household consumption expenditure. Further research suggests adding the inflation variable as a proxy for economic conditions. Keywords: Absolute Income Hypothesis, Permanent Income Hypothesis, Household Consumption Expenditures, National Income, Multiplier.

scholarly journals Analysis of the Viability of Fiscal and Monetary Policies on the Recovery of Household Consumption Expenditures Because of the Covid-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fahrul Riza ◽  
William Wiriyanata
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Consumption Expenditures ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government

The Covid-19 outbreak disrupted economic activity in almost all countries. The Indonesian economy entered a recession phase as a result of the continued contraction in economic growth in the second and third quarters of 2020. According to Keynesian economic theory, the combination of fiscal policy and monetary policy was more effective in recovering the economy from the crisis, this study aims to measure the effect of government spending, money supply, inflation and interest rates on aggregate household consumption expenditure. This study used a quantitative method, using monthly time series data from January 2015 to December 2020. The data were analyzed using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results show that government spending has a negative impact on household aggregate expenditure in the long run meanwhile interest rate has a positive impact on household consumption expenditure. Inflation do not affect aggregate household consumption expenditure, both in the short and long term. The results of the analysis are useful for evaluating the policies taken by the government to overcome the economic crisis due to the spread of the Covid-19 outbreak. The government increases aggregate expenditure to cover the decline in household aggregate consumption expenditure due to a decrease in household real income. Then expansionary monetary policy in the long run will increase aggregate demand. Therefore, the Ministry of Finance together with Bank Indonesia needs to design other policies that will have a positive impact on economic recovery in the short term. This study has not included other macro indicators that affect household consumption expenditures such as unemployment, taxes and the household marginal propensity to saving (MPS). Keywords: Household Aggregate Expenditure; Government Expenditure; Inflation; VECM

Analysis of Relationships and Causality between Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) in South Africa

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Francois Meyer ◽  
Thomas Habanabakize
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
Producer Price ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Producer Price Index ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The variables the consumer price index (CPI), the producer price index (PPI) and the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) and play major roles in economic forecasting. The overall objective of this study is to assess the inter-relationships between CPI, PPI and PMI as predicting variables. This study is quantitative in nature and employed an ARDL econometric model, error correction model (ECM) and Granger causality approaches to establish long and short-run relationships. The ARDL method was used due to the fact that the variables had a mix of stationarity at levels I (0) and the first difference I (1). Quarterly datasets were obtained from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) and the Bureau of Economic Research (BER) for the period 2000 to 2017. Results from the estimations discovered that variables cointegrate in the long-run. Additionally, evidence of short-run relationships has been determined using ECM. Furthermore, causal relationships were also analysed with results indicating that CPI causes PMI and PPI causes PMI. The implication of the research is the confirmation of the importance of relationships between CPI, PPI and PMI, which is especially significant in the short-run and the three index indicators are important macro-economic indicators for changes in overall economic activity on a macro level.

Appendix A: Summary of Key Forecast Assumptions

2011 ◽  
Vol 217 ◽  
pp. F25-F29
Author(s):  
Dawn Holland ◽  
Aurélie Delannoy ◽  
Tatiana Fic ◽  
Ian Hurst ◽  
Ali Orazgani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The World ◽  
Net Assets ◽  
Trade Competitiveness ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Forecast Assumptions ◽  
Factor Inputs

The forecasts for the world and the UK economy reported in this Review are produced using NIESR's global econometric model, NiGEM. The NiGEM model has been in use at the National Institute for forecasting and policy analysis since 1987, and is also used by a group of about 50 model subscribers, mainly in the policy community. Most countries in the OECD are modelled separately, and there are also separate models of China, India, Russia, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Brazil, South Africa, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Romania and Bulgaria. The rest of the world is modelled through regional blocks so that the model is global in scope. All models contain the determinants of domestic demand, export and import volumes, prices, current accounts and net assets. Output is tied down in the long run by factor inputs and technical progress interacting through production functions, but is driven by demand in the short to medium term. Economies are linked through trade, competitiveness and financial markets and are fully simultaneous. Further details on the NiGEM model are available on http://nimodel.niesr.ac.uk/.

scholarly journals An Analysis of the Determinants of Household Consumption Expenditure and Poverty in Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Nely Suriani
Keyword(s):  
National Income ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Main Question ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Adf Test ◽  
Bound Test

The main question of the research that is examined in the research is what the determinants of household consumption expenditure and poverty in Indonesia are. For this purpose, six key variables were selected which includes, household consumption expenditure, level of gross national income (GNI), level of population, lending interest rate, unemployment rate and also global financial crises. However, paper specifically attempted to conduct data analysis on the Indonesia; hence data of Indonesia was collected from World Bank Data centre. Data for the Indonesia was available for the period of 1990 to 2019. To determine stationarity of the data, Augmented Dickey-fuller (ADF) test was conducted. The ADF revealed that data was non-stationary and to resolve the issue of unit root, second difference of the variables resolved the issue and tests were conducted on second difference. Furthermore, instead of using the ordinary least square (OLS) regression, autoregressive distrusted lag model (ARDL) was preferred. The bound test reveals that there is long-run effect means cointegration present among the variable; hence the household consumption expenditure could be used to predict or estimate the household consumption and poverty in long-run. Meanwhile, ARDL results has suggested that there is no short-run effect of any of the regressors on the regressand household consumption expenditure and poverty.

scholarly journals Foreign Direct Investment and the Poverty Reduction Nexus in Tanzania

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 223-236
Author(s):  
Mercy T. Musakwa ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Infant Mortality Rate ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

In this study, the causality between poverty reduction and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in Tanzania using time-series data from 1980 to 2014 is investigated. The study attempts to answer one question. Does FDI drive poverty reduction in Tanzania? To answer this question, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL)-bounds testing approach to cointegration and error correction model (ECM)-based causality model within a trivariate setting was used. The study employs three poverty reduction measures to ensure robustness, namely, household consumption expenditure (pov1), infant mortality rate (pov2), and life expectancy (pov3). The results show that there is a distinct unidirectional causality from poverty reduction to FDI in the short run and in the long run when poverty reduction is measured by household consumption expenditure and life expectancy. A unidirectional causality is confirmed from FDI to poverty reduction in the short run, and no causality is recorded in the long run when infant mortality rate is used as a poverty reduction proxy. Based on these findings, it can be concluded that the causal relationship between FDI and poverty reduction in Tanzania is sensitive to the proxy used to measure the level of poverty and to the time span considered.

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