scholarly journals Forecasting prices of dairy commodities – a comparison of linear and nonlinear models

Author(s):  
B.G Hansen

Dairy commodity prices have become more volatile over the last 10–11 yr. The aim of this paper was to produce reliable price forecasts for the most frequently traded dairy commodities. Altogether five linear and nonlinear time series models were applied. The analysis reveals that prices of dairy commodities reached a structural breakpoint in 2006/2007. The results also show that a combination of linear and nonlinear models is useful in forecasting commodity prices. In this study, the price of cheese is the most difficult to forecast, but a simple autoregressive (AR) model performs reasonably well after 12 mo. Similarly, for butter the AR model performs the best, while for skimmed milk powder (Smp), whole milk powder (Wmp) and whey powder (Whp) the nonlinear methods are the most accurate. However, few of the differences between models are significant according to the Diebold–Mariano (DM) test. The findings could be of interest to the whole dairy industry.

2020 ◽  
Vol 64 (12) ◽  
pp. 18-22
Author(s):  
Yulia G. Ataeva ◽  
◽  
Alsu R. Makaeva ◽  

Milk is one of the most widely consumed food products in the world and is often used in the manufacture of various food products. To reduce the cost of transportation and storage, as well as extend the shelf life of milk, it is dried. It retains most of the nutritional and organoleptic properties of liquid milk. Currently, at least 20-30% of the produced whole milk and fermented milk products are falsified. Flour, starch, chalk, lime, and even gypsum are mixed into milk powder. Classical methods of analysis of milk powder (gravimetric, titrimetric, acidic, etc.) do not allow assessing the qualitative composition of milk powder, while chromatographic and other methods require time and sample preparation. Therefore, to assess the quality of milk, methods of spectrometry in the near infrared region (NIR spectrometry) are becoming very popular. The objects of research were whole milk powder and skimmed milk powder, which were received for research at the Test Center of the FSBSI «Federal Center for Toxicology, Radiation and Biological Safety» from various manufacturers of the Russian Federation. We studied 22 samples of dried whole and skim milk using an IR spectrometer. According to the results of studies, it was found that, on average, samples of skimmed milk powder for all studied indicators corresponded to standards. In 54.5% of the samples of dried whole milk, a reduced fat content was revealed and in 81.8%, an increased content of lactose.


2021 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 29-42
Author(s):  
I.F. Gorlov ◽  
◽  
M.I. Slozhenkina ◽  
V.F. Radchikov ◽  
A.N. Kot ◽  
...  

Aim. To establish the effect of raising young cattle on whole milk, a substitute for whole and skimmed milk powder on its productivity and physiological state in the post-dairy period. Materials and Methods. The studies were conducted on three groups of young cattle of the first phase of cultivation, 10 heads each, at the age of 115 days with an initial live weight of 125.3-127.5 kg. Animals of all groups were given the same diet. During the dairy period, the calves of the control group received milk, a second and third substitute for whole milk and a substitute for skimmed milk powder. Classical and modern zootechnical, biochemical and mathematical methods of analysis were used in research. The digital material obtained in the course of the research was processed by the method of variation statistics, taking into account the Student's criterion of reliability and using the Microsoft Excel software package. Results. Taking into account the feed consumption in the scientific and economic experience showed that the consumption of silage-haylage mixture increased by 0.5-0.6 kg in the animals of the experimental groups. 1 kg of dry matter contained 10.47-10.56 MJ of exchange energy and 0.90-0.91 feed units, 13.4% of crude protein and 22.4-23.2% of fiber. Per 1 feed unit, 95.7-96.4 g of digestible protein was accounted for. As a result of the research, it was found that the majority of the blood parameters studied by us, reflecting the general physiological state of the body, in the compared groups were within the physiological norm. In the blood of animals of the II and III experimental groups, compared with control animals, there was an increase in the number of red blood cells by 10.0 and 9.8%, hemoglobin – by 5.8 and 3.9%, glucose – by 11.0 and 9.5%. The study of the growth dynamics of experimental animals during the experimental period of scientific and economic experience showed that the increase in the live weight of young animals of the experimental group was more intense than the control ones. At the same time, the average daily increase in live weight of control calves was 796.7 g, experimental calves-870.0 and 881.7 g, or increased by 9.2 and 10.7%. The increase in the growth energy of the bulls of the experimental group allowed to obtain an additional 4.4 and 5.1 kg of live weight per head during the experiment period. Based on the conducted studies, it was found that the cost of feed per kg of growth in the II and III experimental groups was lower than the control variant by 5.8 and 7.6%, and therefore the cost of growth in the experimental groups decreased by 6.1 and 7.7% compared to the control analogues, this allowed us to get additional profit per 1 head in the experimental groups in the amount of 8.35 and 10.58 rubles for the research period. Conclusion. The use of ZTSM and ZSOM in feeding young cattle at the age of 10-115 days provided an increase in the average daily increase in the post – dairy period by 9.2 and 10.7%, while reducing the cost of feed for obtaining an increase by 5.8 and 7.6%, the cost of growth-by 6.1 and 7.7 percent.


1998 ◽  
Vol 97 (3) ◽  
pp. 191-199 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul R. Rennie ◽  
X.D. Chen ◽  
Antony R. Mackereth

2017 ◽  
Vol 46 (4) ◽  
pp. 248-257 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dennis Bergmann ◽  
Declan O’Connor ◽  
Andreas Thümmel

Price and volatility transmission effects between European Union (EU) and World skimmed milk powder (SMP) prices, as well as those between both SMP series, soybeans and crude oil prices from 2004 to 2014 were analysed using a vector error correction model combined with a multivariate GARCH model. The results show significant transmission effects between EU and World SMP prices, but no significant transmission effects from soybeans or crude oil to either of the SMP prices. For policymakers and modellers, these results indicate the need to consider World SMP prices when considering EU prices. On the other hand, the finding of no transmission effects from soybean to SMP prices reduces the opportunity for a successful cross-hedging for dairy commodities using well-established soybean derivative markets.


1945 ◽  
Vol 23f (6) ◽  
pp. 327-333 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jesse A. Pearce

Sorption of carbon dioxide by milk powder in a closed system at 35 °C. and at approximately 74 cm. of mercury was observed to be greater than 0.4 cc. per gm. after 150 hr., while only 0.012 cc. of nitrogen was absorbed per gm. after 70 hr. The initial sorption of carbon dioxide varied with time according to the equation:[Formula: see text]where s is 100 times the amount sorbed in cc. per gm. at any time, t (min.), and k and m are constants peculiar to the system under investigation. The logarithmic form of this equation was used. Powders with 26, 28, and 30% fat did not differ in behaviour, but sorption curves for powders with only 1% fat had lower [Formula: see text] values and lower [Formula: see text] values than the curves for the high fat levels. Powders with 1% fat sorbed carbon dioxide in an identical manner when exposed to either 100% carbon dioxide or a mixture of 20% carbon dioxide and 80% nitrogen. For whole milk powder, dilution to 80% nitrogen content was effective in reducing the initial sorption rate of carbon dioxide. Great variation was observed in the sorption behaviour of powders from different plants and in powders produced at different time intervals in the same plant. Temperature differences within the range 25° to 40 °C. had no effect on sorption. Palatability and [Formula: see text] correlated to the extent of r =.61.


Author(s):  
Shabbir Ahmed ◽  
Most Khairunnesa ◽  
Mst Habiba ◽  
Md Islam ◽  
S Hoque ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
H.J. Clarke ◽  
C. Griffin ◽  
D. Hennessy ◽  
T.F. O'Callaghan ◽  
M.G. O'Sullivan ◽  
...  

2003 ◽  
Vol 68 (1) ◽  
pp. 210-216 ◽  
Author(s):  
A.B. Koc ◽  
P.H. Heinemann ◽  
G.R. Ziegler

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