Die Finanzkrise, die Ökonomen, der „Crashprophet“ und die Wissenschaft von der Ökonomie

2011 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Max Otte
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Economic Modelling ◽  
Brief Assessment ◽  
Track Record ◽  
The World ◽  
Modelling Techniques ◽  
Modern Economic ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Logical Result

AbstractThe global financial crisis of 2007-2008 was a clear and logical result of the financial and economic conditions which preceded it, yet highly respected economists the world over failed to foresee the crash, and many continued to discount the possibility of a recession even after the crisis was well underway. Inaccurate economic forecasting is by no means a new phenomenon, and this paper examines some of the institutional and psychological grounds for economists’ faulty track record. The paper also discusses issues associated with modern economic modelling techniques and offers a brief assessment of where the world economy stands today as well as where it might be heading.

scholarly journals Increase in Consumer Debt Preceding Crisis Due to Advancement in Technology, Further Evidence Supporting the Idea No Real Estate Bubble Existed Preceding Crisis Presented by Eddison Walters Risk Expectation Theory of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008: The Case for Eddison Walters Modern Economic Analysis Theory

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 122
Author(s):  
Eddison T. Walters
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Economic Analysis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Technological Advancement ◽  
Analysis Theory ◽  
The World ◽  
Modern Economic ◽  
Expectation Theory ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Insight Into

The researcher called for economic research to consider the potential effect of advancement in technology on analysis of economic data in Eddison Walters Modern Economic Analysis Theory in the future represented a paradigm shift in economic analysis that will significantly reduce the potential for error due to data distortion in the future. The foundation of the world's economy is based on the sharing of information, yet very little attention has been given to the effect of technology advancement in the analysis of data. The researcher of the current study highlighted the critical nature of sharing information to the development of the world’s economy in the past, as well as the critical nature of sharing information to the world’s economy today. Advancement in technology has drastically improved the sharing of information and has led to the globalized economy. The lack of evidence supporting the widely accepted theory of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008 prompted the investigation by the current researcher aimed at gaining insight into economic factors that were responsible for conditions contributing to the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008. Walters (2018) presented evidence suggesting no financial bubble existed before the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008. The study resulted in the development of “Eddison Walters Risk Expectation Theory of The Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008”. The theory presented an alternative explanation for the financial crisis. The researcher called for additional investigation to gain insight into the nature of the cause of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008. Further investigation in Walters (2019) provided evidence supporting the idea, technological advancement led to the rapid growth in home prices before the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008. The result from the analysis of data in Walters (2019) revealed the following, 0.989 Adjusted R-square, 194.041 Mean Dependent Variable, 5.908 Square Error of Regression, and 488.726 Sum-of-Square Residual, from nonlinear regression analysis. The dependent variable in the study was, “home purchase price” and the independent variable was, “advancement in technology”. The current study continued the investigation into factors that were described in the literature which set the conditions leading to the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008. Gaining insight into the effect of technological advancement on the significant increase in consumer debt prior to the Global Financial Crisis will significantly contribute to the understanding of the economic environment before the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008. Insight into the effect of advancement in technology on the increase in consumer lending prior to the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008, will significantly contribute to the understanding of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008.

Ten years after the global crisis: Risks and prospects

2019 ◽  
pp. 37-53 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. V. Ershov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Crisis ◽  
The World ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The article analyzes the situation in the world and in Russia 10 years after the global financial crisis. It is shown that with the observed growth of the world economy, global risks, on the contrary, have not diminished, but increased, which creates the threat of new failures. The measures that can be taken by Russian regulators to neutralize external risks and stimulate the economic development of the country are considered.

THE WORLD ECONOMY: The global financial crisis and collapse in world trade

2009 ◽  
Vol 208 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-16
Author(s):  
Dawn Holland ◽  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Tatiana Fic ◽  
Ian Hurst ◽  
Iana Liadze ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
World Trade ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The World ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

scholarly journals Foreword

10.26458/1831 ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 15-19
Author(s):  
Elena GURGU
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial System ◽  
European Central ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Lehman Brothers ◽  
The World ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial System

A globally warning issued in September 2018 by the former president of the European Central Bank, Frenchman Jean-Claude Trichet says the world economy is exactly the way ahead of the economic crisis of 2008. He said that too many debts have done the global financial system as vulnerable as it was ten years ago in September 2008, when the American bank Lehman Brothers collapsed. Excessive indebtedness in advanced economies was a key factor in triggering the global financial crisis of 2007 and 2008, Jean-Claude Trichet said in an interview with AFP.Currently, debt growth in advanced countries, particularly in the private sector, has slowed, but this slowdown has been offset by an acceleration in emerging-nation debt growth. This makes the entire world financial system at least the same vulnerable as it was in 2008......

scholarly journals G20 Institutionalization: From Crisis-Management to Long-Term Global Governance

2016 ◽  
Vol 02 (03) ◽  
pp. 347-364 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wang Lei ◽  
Wang Rui
Keyword(s):  
Crisis Management ◽  
Global Governance ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Management Mechanism ◽  
The World ◽  
The Many ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
High Level

Since its establishment, the Group of Twenty (G20) has undergone three phases of institutional transition: from an informal forum among finance ministers and governors of central banks at the beginning, to a crisis-management mechanism mainly to cope with the global financial crisis, and increasingly to a long-term platform for global governance in recent years. With increasing representation and mandates, the G20 has been playing a key role in forging high-level consensuses and coordinating policies and actions among major economies so as to keep the world economy and development on track. Faced by the many challenges within itself and from the changing dynamics of the world economy and development, the G20 has to improve its cooperative spirit, representativeness and effectiveness before it can become a full-fledged institution for global governance.

scholarly journals OVERCOMING GLOBAL IMBALANCES IN THE WORLD ECONOMY IN THE CONTEXT OF EXACERBATION OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC CRISIS

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bohdan Zavalii ◽  
Nataliia Skrypnyk
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Current Account ◽  
World Trade ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Global Imbalances ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The article considers methods of overcoming global imbalances in the world economy in the context of exacerbation of the socio-economic crisis. The definition of the concept of global imbalances formulated and their classification was covered. The article highlights the periodicity of global financial imbalances and global imbalances that affect macroeconomic development. It is determined that in recent decades, global economic development has undergone several economic crises that have created global imbalances in world trade and redistribution of capital and resources of national economies. The G20 premier forum for international economic cooperation must form a list of recommendation that every country should follow in order to overcome global imbalances. In addition, analyzed that all this is happening in the context of the slow growth of world trade since the global financial crisis of 2008 and the recovery of the world's economies from the shock caused by the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic. The article highlights the US deficit relative to gross domestic product and identifies its impact on the structure of global imbalances. It highlights how the US current account deficit affects the formation of current local imbalances between national economics. It analyzed that 2020 was a stage of economic collapse, similar in nature to the Great Depression of the 1930s. In the article was determined that global imbalances are the compound of deficits and surpluses on the current account. It is determined that the significant decline in international trade during the period 2020-2021 caused by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is determined that the new economic uncertainty is reflected in world capital markets in general and in international financial markets, in particular, in the volatility of capital flows to the economies of developing countries. The paper highlighted measures to support the countries most affected by COVID-19, as an example of cooperation in reducing today's global imbalances. All the above aspects formed and described in the following article with reasonable considerations and supplemented by examples of factual data.

ASPEK ETIK DAN SISTEMIK DALAM EKONOMI DAN BISNIS ISLAM

ALQALAM ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 187
Author(s):  
Budi Harsanto
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Business Ethics ◽  
Moral Hazard ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Institution ◽  
Research Question ◽  
Academic Journals ◽  
Lehman Brothers ◽  
The World ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The fall of Enron, Lehman Brothers and other major financial institution in the world make researchers conduct various studies about crisis. The research question in this study is, from Islamic economics and business standpoint, why the global financial crisis can happen repeatedly. The purpose is to contribute ideas regarding Islamic viewpoint linked with the global financial crisis. The methodology used is a theoretical-reflective to various article published in academic journals and other intellectual resources with relevant themes. There are lots of analyses on the causes of the crisis. For discussion purposes, the causes divide into two big parts namely ethics and systemic. Ethics contributed to the crisis by greed and moral hazard as a theme that almost always arises in the study of the global financial crisis. Systemic means that the crisis can only be overcome with a major restructuring of the system. Islamic perspective on these two aspect is diametrically different. At ethics side, there is exist direction to obtain blessing in economics and business activities. At systemic side, there is rule of halal and haram and a set of mechanism of economics system such as the concept of ownership that will early prevent the seeds of crisis. Keywords: Islamic economics and business, business ethics, financial crisis 

Financialization

2018 ◽  
pp. 276-290
Author(s):  
Ravi Roy ◽  
Thomas D. Willett
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Capital Mobility ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Economic Globalization ◽  
The Past ◽  
The World ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
National Economies ◽  
Global Financial System

The size and scope of financial sectors throughout the world have grown exponentially in tandem with the rise of globalization and increased capital mobility. The terms “economic globalization” and “financialization” are often discussed as inextricably related phenomena. Although the rapid increase in the number and variety of financial services and products during the past four decades has helped spur economic growth and create wealth on an unprecedented scale, the devastating fallout from the global financial crisis of 2008–2009, and the economic turbulence that followed, demonstrates how poorly managed financial sectors can simultaneously cause enormous pain. This chapter argues that if the opportunities created by economic globalization and financialization are to be maximized, while at the same tempering volatile financial markets, then the global financial system (and the national economies connected with it) must be fundamentally restructured. A number of ways that should be taken under consideration are discussed.

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