scholarly journals Why do developed economies become vulnerable to economic cycles

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 156-162
Author(s):  
Lilia Mykhailyshyn ◽  
Serhii Vasylchenko

The possible reasons for the intensification of cyclical fluctuations of the economies of the developed countries in the last decade are analyzed in the article. At the same time, the countries with risky markets (emerging markets and developing economies) are experiencing lower GDP losses during cyclical reductions of the economy. This is particularly paradoxical in view of the fact that developed economies are generally considered to be more stable and competitive. Besides, during the twentieth century, mankind has accumulated considerable experience in counteracting the cyclical nature of national economies and learned to smooth the amplitude of cyclical fluctuations. The authors of the article put forward and substantiate the assumption that the reason for the increase in the amplitude of cyclical fluctuations, increase of the depth of cyclical fluctuations of economies of the developed countries compared to the countries with emerging markets and developing economies, is the significant difference in the structure of these economies. The significant predominance of the tertiary sector in the developed economies makes them more vulnerable to cyclical fluctuations due to the greater multiplier effect that is inherent in the tertiary sector industries compared to other sectors of the economy. The conducted correlation analysis showed the presence of the strong relationship between such parameters of the economy as the share of the tertiary sector in the economy and the percentage value of the predicted economic recession in 2020 in the developed economies and emerging markets and developing economies. But it is necessary to keep in mind that the autonomous cost multiplier works in the opposite direction, accelerating the economic decline during the economic cycle. That is why, in our opinion, measures of state regulation of the economy today should be increasingly aimed at regulating the tertiary sector to prevent the increasing cyclicality of the modern global economy, as the leading economic leaders themselves are often becoming generators of the business cycle due to economic financialization and tertiary sector growth in general.

2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (4) ◽  
pp. 291-318
Author(s):  
Mihai Mutascu ◽  
Scott W. Hegerty

The paper analyzes the interaction between capital-flow volatility and trade openness in five developed economies and four emerging markets by applying wavelet analysis over the period from 1990Q1 to 2017Q1. The main findings reveal that, in the medium term, capital-flow volatility drives trade openness in emerging markets and developing economies. Special attention should be paid to developed countries during the 2008 economic crisis, when trade exposure is shown to have had significant effects on capital-flow volatility. In the long term, the direction of comovement is rather idiosyncratic in our set of emerging markets and developing countries. Moreover, in both groups of countries, the intensity and persistence of relationships are very sensitive to the volatility of real GDP and secondary to geopolitical risk and oil-price volatility.


Author(s):  
Mikhail M. Lobanov ◽  
Svetlana P. Glinkina

In the late 20th and early 21st centuries the problem of theoretical substantiation of transnational differences in the forms of capitalist relations became the subject of a broad scientific discussion. Given article deals with the ideas about the causes and consequences of the differentiation of the principles of capitalist society organization, and the authors consciously limit its geographical coverage to developed countries. It was the states of the Core of World economy that were in the focus of publications of the second half of the 20th centurywhich used the methods of comparative analysis within the framework of the theories of regulation, developmentalism, dependent capitalism, neo-corporatism, post-Fordism, etc. Modern concepts of comparative capitalism, especially focusing on emerging markets, are based on a variety of approaches to distinguish national models of capitalist relations. Despite the pluralism of typological criteria, many of these approaches basically contain provisions of the “varieties of capitalism” theory (VoC) developed in the early 2000s. Relying on its key postulate on the existence of various types of institutional complementarity, the authors of given article explain the principles of divergence of liberal and coordinated market economies, as well as analyze the groundings for identifying a mixed type of capitalism. It should be noted that the prospects for the adaptation of provisions of “varieties of capitalism” binary theory to analyze the experience of countries with emerging markets, including post-socialist states, remain vague. It’s noteworthy, that during the post-crisis recovery period of the late 2000s the VoC approach has undergone a certain transformation under the influence of new conditions of global economy functioning, having opposed its own methodological flexibility to the spread of alternative theories of the organization of capitalist systems.


MRS Bulletin ◽  
1998 ◽  
Vol 23 (7) ◽  
pp. 3-5 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan W. Cramb ◽  
V.S. Arunachalam

Whoever said that the steel industry is dead? It is alive and flourishing, this time with an efficiency and environmental cleanliness that will make the semiconductor industry proud! The renaissance is not local, limited to a few developed economies, but global, based on innovations in iron and steel technology and on technology spillover from other areas. The appetite for steel has not decreased: Developing economies such as China and India need millions of tons to build their inadequate and overstretched infrastructure, and the developed countries demand new steels with superior properties for applications in areas previously reserved for other materials. Today the global production of steel is assessed not by mere tonnages but by their quality.A major attraction of the iron and steel industry is its compatibility with the materials cycle: Iron and steel scrap has become the new raw material, curtailing the global hunger for newly mined iron ores. In a sense, this recycling is an atonement of the excesses of the earlier decades when mining and metallurgical industries paid little attention to energy efficiency and environmental protection. Experts now agree that these and increasing competition from other materials drove the industry to its near extinction. How real then is this renaissance and what are the technology drivers for the growth? Will steel regain its pride of place among materials used by society? In the following article, Alan Cramb reviews the spectacular growth of this industry and predicts an exciting future for it. Silicon, it seems, is not eliminating steel from our materials consciousness!


Author(s):  
Mahesh K. Joshi ◽  
J.R. Klein

The twenty-first century is being touted as the Asian century. With its stable economy, good governance, education system, and above all the abundant natural resources, will Australia to take its place in the global economy by becoming more entrepreneurial and accelerating its rate of growth, or will it get infected with the so-called Dutch disease? It has been successful in managing trade ties with fast-developing economies like China and India as well as developed countries like the United States. It has participated in the growth of China by providing iron ore and coal. Because it is a low-risk country, it has enabled inflow of large foreign capital investments. A lot will depend on its capability and willingness to invest the capital available in entrepreneurial ventures, its ability to capture the full value chain of natural resources, and to export the finished products instead of raw materials, while building a robust manufacturing sector.


Barely two decades after the Asian financial crisis Asia was suddenly confronted with multiple challenges originating outside the region: the 2008 global financial crisis, the European debt crisis, and, finally developed economies’ implementation of unconventional monetary policies. Especially the implementation of quantitative easing (QE), ultra-low interest rate policies, and negative interest rate policies by a number of large central banks has given rise to concerns over financial stability and international capital flows. One of the regions most profoundly affected by the crisis was Asia due to its high dependence on international trade and international financial linkages. The objective of this book is to explain how macroeconomic shocks stemming from the global financial crisis and recent unconventional monetary policies in developed economies have affected macroeconomic and financial stability in emerging markets, with a particular focus on Asia. In particular, the book covers the following thematic areas: (i) the spillover effects of macroeconomic shocks on financial markets and flows in emerging economies; (ii) the impact of recent macroeconomic shocks on real economies in emerging markets; and (iii) key challenges for the monetary, exchange rate, trade, and macroprudential policies of developing economies, especially Asian economies, and suggestions and recommendations to increase resiliency against external shocks.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Phoxai Inthaboualy

<p>The current literature focuses primarily on the national competitiveness of developed or developing economies. However, minimal research exists on understanding the national competitiveness of less developed countries (LDCs) whose strengths in factor endowments, government institutions and the extent of global integration are not the same as those of developed or developing countries. This study aims to fill this research gap by exploring factors contributing to the competitiveness of Laos. Laos is a small, poor and land-locked country in Southeast Asia with rich natural resources. To achieve the study objectives, 20 semi-structured interviews were conducted with senior government officials, industrial representatives, professors and NGOs in Laos. The findings suggest three key factors are critical for enhancing Lao competitiveness: factor endowments, the role of government, and global integration. Laos‘ factor endowments include hydropower, mining, agriculture, garment and textile industries, and services. Laos is interacting more with the global economy as it gets set to embrace membership of the World Trade Organisation after approximately 15 years of membership of ASEAN. The government is playing a critical role by developing Lao factor endowments and developing policies required for global integration. However, the country faces challenges of value addition to the existing natural resources, developing and leveraging human capital, and further improvement in rules and regulations.</p>


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Phoxai Inthaboualy

<p>The current literature focuses primarily on the national competitiveness of developed or developing economies. However, minimal research exists on understanding the national competitiveness of less developed countries (LDCs) whose strengths in factor endowments, government institutions and the extent of global integration are not the same as those of developed or developing countries. This study aims to fill this research gap by exploring factors contributing to the competitiveness of Laos. Laos is a small, poor and land-locked country in Southeast Asia with rich natural resources. To achieve the study objectives, 20 semi-structured interviews were conducted with senior government officials, industrial representatives, professors and NGOs in Laos. The findings suggest three key factors are critical for enhancing Lao competitiveness: factor endowments, the role of government, and global integration. Laos‘ factor endowments include hydropower, mining, agriculture, garment and textile industries, and services. Laos is interacting more with the global economy as it gets set to embrace membership of the World Trade Organisation after approximately 15 years of membership of ASEAN. The government is playing a critical role by developing Lao factor endowments and developing policies required for global integration. However, the country faces challenges of value addition to the existing natural resources, developing and leveraging human capital, and further improvement in rules and regulations.</p>


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando Angulo-Ruiz ◽  
Albena Pergelova ◽  
William X. Wei

Purpose This research aims to assess variations of motivations when studying international location decisions. In particular, this study aims to assess the influence of diverse motivations – seeking technology, seeking brand assets, seeking markets, seeking resources and escaping institutional constraints – as determinants of the international location choice of emerging market multinational enterprises (EM MNEs) entering least developed, emerging, and developed countries. Design/methodology/approach The authors develop a set of hypotheses based on the ownership–location–internalization framework and complement it with an institutional perspective. The conceptual model posits that the different internationalization motivations (seeking technology, seeking brand assets, seeking markets, seeking resources and escaping institutional constraints) will impact the location choice of EM MNEs in developed economies, emerging markets or least developed countries. This study uses the 2013 survey data collected by the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade and the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada. The final sample of analysis of this research includes 693 observations. Findings After controlling for several variables, two-stage Heckman regressions show there is a variation of motivations when EM MNEs enter least developed countries, emerging markets and developed economies. EM MNEs are motivated to enter least developed countries to seek markets and resources. Conversely, those firms enter developed countries in their search for technological assets and to escape institutional constraints at home. While the present study findings show a clear difference in the motivations that lead to location choice in least developed vs developed countries, the results are not as clear for location in other emerging countries. Research limitations/implications The paper offers empirical support for the importance of motivations as crucial determinants of location choice. Originality/value This paper provides a detailed quantitative study on the internationalization location choice of EM MNEs based on their motivations. Though theoretical models underscore the importance of motivations, we know very little about how, in practice, motivations drive location choice. This study contributes to the international location choice literature a deeper understanding of how diverse motivations drive choices of expansion into developed economies, emerging markets or least developed countries.


Author(s):  
Chamhuri Siwar ◽  
Abdul-Mumin Abdulai

Undoubtedly, digital technology (DT) has revolutionalised information and communications technology (ICT) base of the global economy, which has impacted tremendously the socio-economic, political, cultural and scientific development in the majority of the world’s economies. The chapter examines “digital divide” in a broader perspective of information and communications technologies (ICTs) that encompass not only computers, but also telephone (line and cellular), television (TV), radio etc. It is an open secret that ICTs have played and will continue to play a pivotal role in sustaining economic development in the developed countries. Through ICTs, creating, storing and sharing enormous volume of information with relative ease in almost all the spheres of human endeavour have been made possible. The power inherent in ICT that can break up barriers and boundaries holding countries, continents and businesses miles apart can never be over-emphasized. Despite the attendant benefits of ICTs, there are still deep-seated ICT inequalities both within and among the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) member countries. This chapter investigates the depth of the existing digital divide among the OIC member countries and to unearth the possible obstacles. Finally, some policy recommendations have been offered towards the end of the chapter.


Author(s):  
Stephanie Jones

Increasingly, Western-style MBA programs are being delivered in emerging markets, as the developed countries become more and more saturated with MBAs and related offerings. This article, based on the global experience of the author in teaching and assessing MBA modules including thesis and dissertation research and writing, suggests approaches to coping with the special challenges faced in new markets for MBA delivery worldwide. The differences with typical experiences in the West are cultural, linguistic, behavioral and relate to learning styles, economic backgrounds, use of technology, and relationships with administrators, teachers and fellow-students. This article is based on the author’s experiences of MBA course delivery in China, the Arab World, Africa, Iran, Malaysia and Indonesia, Vietnam, Eastern Europe, former Russian states such as Kazakhstan, and South America, such as Peru and Suriname. Examples of specific MBA teaching and assessment challenges are provided, with possible solutions and approaches for coping.


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