scholarly journals Investment, growth, and defense expenditure in the EU15: Revisiting the nexus using SIPRI’s new consistent dataset

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Christos Kollias ◽  
Suzanna-Maria Paleologou
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rates ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Military Spending ◽  
Military Expenditure ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Previous Version ◽  
Defense Expenditure ◽  
Investment Spending ◽  
Investment Growth ◽  
Panel Vector Autoregression

Using SIPRI’s new consistent database on military expenditure and employing a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) methodology, the article investigates the nexus between military expenditure and two key macroeconomic variables, namely growth rates and investment spending for the case of the EU15 countries over the period 1961–2014. The findings reported herein do not support the effective demand stimulation argument for military spending. Thus, they broadly confirm the results of earlier studies for the EU15 that used the previous version of the SIPRI dataset.

scholarly journals War and military spending in developing countries and their consequences for development

2006 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Collier
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Military Spending ◽  
Military Expenditure ◽  
Internal Conflict ◽  
Effective Deterrent ◽  
Policy Challenge

That military expenditure and conflict have adverse consequences for development is unsurprising but important. The policy challenge is to reduce them. I have suggested that substantial components of military expenditure could be reduced without jeopardizing security interests. Military expenditure does not appear to be an effective deterrent of rebellion, and, if it is reduced in a coordinated manner across a region then external security interests would be unaffected. The resources released by reduced military expenditure could be used to increase growth rates, and this in turn would gradually but effectively reduce the risk of internal conflict. Development, not military deterrence, is the best strategy for a safer society.

External debt among HIPCs in Africa: accounting and panel VAR analysis of some determinants

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (3) ◽  
pp. 431-455 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Mensah ◽  
Anthony Q.Q. Aboagye ◽  
Joshua Y. Abor ◽  
Anthony Kyereboah-Coleman
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Panel Var ◽  
Ample Evidence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Poor Countries ◽  
Investment Spending ◽  
Panel Vector Autoregression

Purpose The management of external debt among highly indebted poor countries (HIPCs) in Africa still remains a challenge despite numerous packages and attempts to ameliorate the consequences of such odious debt. The purpose of this paper is to establish the factors that contribute to the growth rate of external debt and how these factors respond to shocks to external debt growth rate in Africa. Design/methodology/approach Data were obtained from 24 African countries and analyzed using a panel vector autoregression estimation methodology. Findings The study found that external debt growth rates respond positively to unit shock or changes in government investment spending, consumption spending, and domestic borrowings over a long period of time. In the medium term, external debt growth rates respond negatively to shocks in tax revenue, inflation, and output growth rates. The paper also provides empirical support that external debt may be consumed rather than invested among HIPCs in Africa. Research limitations/implications The findings of this paper are limited to only HIPCs in Africa. Practical implications This study has some few debilitating implications for external debt management among HIPCs in Africa. First, the paper suggests that debt repayment may be a problem. This is largely because external debt is consumed rather than invested. External debt sustainability needs a holistic approach in less developed countries. The findings place much emphasis on improvements in gross domestic product and tax revenues as the principal routes out of the debt doldrums. However, this option must be exploited with great caution as there is ample evidence that these poor countries increase their external borrowing capacities with improvements in economic outlook. Originality/value This paper fills a research gap that identifies specific components of government deficit budgets that may be contributing to the growth rate of external debts among HIPCs.

scholarly journals ANALISIS KAUSALITAS EKSPOR, OUTPUT MANUFAKTUR DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI NEGARA ASEAN

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 645
Author(s):  
Rany Febriyanti Ariska ◽  
Ariusni Ariusni
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Manufacture Export ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
Panel Vector Autoregression

This study examines the causal relationship between manufacture export, manufacture ouput and economic growth within a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) for ASEAN countries over the period 2008-2017. The results of this study indicate that the manufacture export and the manufacture output has a one-way causality relationship that is economic growth which affects the manufacture export, the manufacture output has a one-way causality relationship that is economic growth affects the manufacture output, the export and the output manufacture has no causality.

Macroeconomic Variables and Sukuk Outstanding in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (6) ◽  
pp. 561-570
Author(s):  
Nur Habibah Asri ◽  
Dwi Wulandari
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
19Th Century ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Quantitative Descriptive ◽  
The 19Th Century ◽  
Descriptive Method

Sukuk or Sharia bonds are one of the investment instruments in Indonesia. Since the 19th century, Sukuk has become popular with investors. Several previous studies found contradictory results that macroeconomic variables have a relationship and influence on Sukuk by observing the year before the pandemic. This study uses a quantitative descriptive method with a Vector Autoregression (VAR) approach. Through the optimum lag value, namely, lag 3, statistically it was found that there was a significant relationship between the variables of GDP, interest rates, and the exchange rate on Sukuk. In addition, several analysis results found a causal relationship between these variables.

The Impact of Military Spending on Economic Development

2018 ◽  
pp. 182-191
Author(s):  
Saptarshi Chakraborty
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Large Fraction ◽  
Military Spending ◽  
Military Expenditure ◽  
Policy Debate ◽  
External Threats ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Impact

Some countries spend a relatively large percentage of GDP on their militaries in order to preserve or secure their status as global powers. Others do so because they are ruled by military governments or aggressive regimes that pose a military threat to their neighbors or their own populations. It is debatable whether there is a causal relationship between military spending and economic growth in the economy. It is again a policy debate how much to allocate funds for civilian and how much for military expenditure. Under these puzzling results of the impact of military expenditure on economic growth which is frequently found to be non-significant or negative, yet most countries spend a large fraction of their GDP on defense and the military. The chapter tries to investigate the relationship between military spending and economic growth in India. It also sees whether external threats, corruption, and other relevant controls have any causal effect. This chapter obtains that additional expenditure on Indian military in the presence of additional threat is significantly detrimental to growth implying that India cannot afford to fight or demonstrate power at the cost of its development.

Impact of Military Expenditure on Domestic Economy

2018 ◽  
pp. 106-130
Author(s):  
Koushik Das
Keyword(s):  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Policy Option ◽  
Military Expenditure ◽  
Arms Race ◽  
Domestic Economy ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
Nuclear Testing ◽  
Defense Expenditure ◽  
The Social

Military expenditure in the recent past has been escalated noticeably owing to the nuclear testing and arms race between India and Pakistan and has the prudent prospect of further boost up in the coming years. In this chapter, India's military expenditure has been modelled in a computable general equilibrium framework in order to analyze its impacts over the macro economy. Alternative policy option has been suggested to fiance it and to reduce the social cost of the higher defense expenditure.

scholarly journals New Evidence for Romania Regarding Dynamic Causality between Military Expenditure and Sustainable Economic Growth

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 5053 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ran Tao ◽  
Oana Ramona Glonț ◽  
Zheng-Zheng Li ◽  
Oana Ramona Lobonț ◽  
Adina Alexandra Guzun
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Military Spending ◽  
Military Expenditure ◽  
Crowding Out ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Sustainable Economic Development ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth

Military spending and sustainable economic development have been widely discussed in recent decades. Especially in Romania, the defense budget is valued at $4.8 billion, registering a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.57%. It is also expected to reach $7.6 billion in 2023, according to a report by Strategic Defense Intelligence. There is no consensus in current research and less attention is paid to Eastern European countries. Considering the significant increase in military spending in Romania in recent years, as well as the occurrence of political events, this paper focuses on the dynamic causal relationship between military spending and sustainable economic growth in Romania. The bootstrap rolling window causality test takes into account the structural changes, and therefore, provides more convincing results. The results indicate negative effects of military expenditure on sustainable economic growth between 1996–1999 and 2002–2004. It can be attributed to the crowding-out effect of public expenditure on private investment. The positive effect between the two variables analyzed is noticed with the accession of Romania to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Conversely, it is found that economic growth does not have a significant effect on military spending in Romania. Policymakers should guard against the crowding out of private consumption and investment due to excessive military spending and ensure to increase military expenditure on the premise of sustainable economic development.

Short-term influences on Canadian wood pulp prices and exports: a vector autoregression analysis

1996 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 566-572 ◽  
Author(s):  
Janaki R.R. Alavalapati ◽  
Martin K. Luckert ◽  
Wiktor L. Adamowicz
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Pulp Industry ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Dynamic Impacts ◽  
Pulp Processing ◽  
The U.S

The short-run dynamic impacts of macroeconomic variables on the Canadian pulp industry are investigated using the vector autoregression approach. The results show that shocks in the G10 exchange rate and the U.S. pulp price significantly affect Canadian pulp prices but not Canadian pulp exports. Short-term contracts, changes in the domestic demand for pulp, and limitations on pulp processing capacities are thought to be responsible for the limited responsiveness of pulp exports. The results also suggest that the indirect effect of shocks in the macroeconomy are important in explaining the dynamics of Canadian pulp price and pulp exports.

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