The 2016 Pennsylvania Presidential and U.S. Senate Elections: Breaking Pennsylvania’s Electoral Habits

Commonwealth ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Berwood Yost ◽  
Jackie Redman ◽  
Scottie Thompson
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Voter Registration ◽  
Current Direction ◽  
Senate Elections ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
Election Results

This article uses pre-election survey data, post-election survey data, and voter registration and election data to interpret the outcomes of the 2016 presidential and U.S. Senate races in Pennsylvania. This analysis shows how changes in voter registration and voter turnout in specific areas of the Commonwealth, driven in large part by less-educated voters, those dissatisfied with the current direction of the country, and the performance of the incumbent president, explain the 2016 election results. 

scholarly journals By the Numbers: Election Data

2016 ◽  
Vol 44 (3) ◽  
pp. 9
Author(s):  
Pamela Campbell ◽  
Katrina Stierholz
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Voter Registration ◽  
Private Institutions ◽  
Delivery Methods ◽  
Related Information ◽  
Election Results ◽  
State And Local ◽  
The Many ◽  
Many Sources ◽  
Election Studies

Election-related information covers a broad range of topics—voter registration, voter turnout, opinion polls, election results, and campaign finance data—spanning national, state, and local levels. Who collects and provides all the data related to an election? Interestingly, many sources of election statistics are available online through private institutions (e.g., universities, research institutions) rather than government sources. This applies to both recent information and historical information.This article focuses on just a few of the many resources for election data. Three sources are briefly examined, followed by an in-depth look at one source: the American National Election Studies (ANES). These sources cover a broad range of subject matter and delivery methods. The Library of Congress offers other resources at its election statistics Web Guide (www.loc.gov/rr/program/bib/elections/statistics.html).

The Politics of Policy: The Initial Mass Political Effects of Medicaid Expansion in the States

2017 ◽  
Vol 112 (1) ◽  
pp. 167-185 ◽  
Author(s):  
JOSHUA D. CLINTON ◽  
MICHAEL W. SANCES
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Supreme Court Decision ◽  
Voter Registration ◽  
Partisan Politics ◽  
Patient Protection ◽  
Political Effects ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
State Variation ◽  
States Experience ◽  
The Impact

Whether public policy affects electoral politics is an enduring question with an elusive answer. We identify the impact of the highly contested Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) of 2010 by exploiting cross-state variation created by the 2012 Supreme Court decision inNational Federation of Independent Business v. Sebelius. We compare changes in registration and turnout following the expansion of Medicaid in January of 2014 to show that counties in expansion states experience higher political participation compared to similar counties in nonexpansion states. Importantly, the increases we identify are concentrated in counties with the largest percentage of eligible beneficiaries. The effect on voter registration persists through the 2016 election, but an impact on voter turnout is only evident in 2014. Despite the partisan politics surrounding the ACA–a political environment that differs markedly from social programs producing policy feedbacks in the past—our evidence is broadly consistent with claims that social policy programs can produce some political impacts, at least in the short-term.

Response Bias in Survey Measures of Voter Behavior: Implications for Measurement and Inference

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 192-198
Author(s):  
Claire Adida ◽  
Jessica Gottlieb ◽  
Eric Kramon ◽  
Gwyneth McClendon
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Response Bias ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Experimental Treatment ◽  
Short Report ◽  
Measurement Instruments ◽  
Election Results ◽  
The Village ◽  
Data Representative ◽  
Analyze Data

AbstractThis short report exploits a unique opportunity to investigate the implications of response bias in survey questions about voter turnout and vote choice in new democracies. We analyze data from a field experiment in Benin, where we gathered official election results and panel survey data representative at the village level, allowing us to directly compare average outcomes across both measurement instruments in a large number of units. We show that survey respondents consistently overreport turning out to vote and voting for the incumbent, and that the bias is large and worse in contexts where question sensitivity is higher. This has important implications for the inferences we draw about an experimental treatment, indicating that the response bias we identify is correlated with treatment. Although the results using the survey data suggest that the treatment had the hypothesized impact, they are also consistent with social desirability bias. By contrast, the administrative data lead to the conclusion that the treatment had no effect.

The Three-Legged Stool of Voter Engagement

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 41-56
Author(s):  
Adelaide K. Sandler ◽  
Mary E. Hylton ◽  
Jason Ostrander ◽  
Tanya R. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Social Work ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Political Power ◽  
Voter Registration ◽  
Elected Officials ◽  
Allocation Of Resources ◽  
Community Members ◽  
The Past ◽  
Voting Decisions

Disparities in voter turnout have increased significantly over the past four decades. Members of historically oppressed groups, those who are low-income, and or who have lower levels of education vote at significantly lower rates than white, wealthy and or more educated community members. These disparities correlate directly to political power and the eventual allocation of resources by elected officials. Therefore, eliminating these disparities through targeted voter engagement with client groups is particularly important for the profession of social work. This article describes the conceptualization of voter engagement as a three-legged stool, consisting of voter registration, regular voting, and basing voting decisions on self-interest.Without attention to all three legs, the potential for generating political power collapses, resulting in minimal influence on elected officials.

Taking Aim at Attack Advertising

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim Fridkin ◽  
Patrick Kenney
Keyword(s):  
Content Analysis ◽  
Focus Groups ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Empirical Validation ◽  
Negative Campaigning ◽  
Senate Elections ◽  
Campaign Messages ◽  
Negative Messages ◽  
The Impact

This book develops and tests the “tolerance and tactics theory of negativity.” The theory argues that citizens differ in their tolerance of negative campaigning. Also, candidates vary in the tactics used to attack their opponents, with negative messages varying in their relevance to voters and in the civility of their tone. The interplay between citizens’ tolerance of negativity and candidates’ negative messages helps clarify when negative campaigning will influence citizens’ evaluations of candidates and their likelihood of voting. A diverse set of data sources was collected from U.S. Senate elections (e.g., survey data, experiments, content analysis, focus groups) across several years to test the theory. The tolerance and tactics theory of negativity receives strong empirical validation. First, people differ systematically in their tolerance for negativity, and their tolerance changes over the course of the campaign. Second, people’s levels of tolerance consistently and powerfully influence how they assess negative messages. Third, the relevance and civility of negative messages consistently influence citizens’ assessments of candidates competing for office. That is, negative messages focusing on relevant topics and utilizing an uncivil tone produce significant changes in people’s impressions of the candidates. Furthermore, people’s tolerance of negativity influences their susceptibility to negative campaigning. Specifically, relevant and uncivil messages are most influential for people who are least tolerant of negative campaigning. The relevance and civility of campaign messages also alter people’s likelihood of voting, and the impact of negative messages on turnout is more consequential for people with less tolerance of negativity.

scholarly journals Improving Ecological Inference by Predicting Individual Ethnicity from Voter Registration Records

2016 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 263-272 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kosuke Imai ◽  
Kabir Khanna
Keyword(s):  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
False Positive Rate ◽  
True Positive Rate ◽  
Voter Registration ◽  
Racial Groups ◽  
Ecological Inference ◽  
Inference Problem ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Positive Rate ◽  
Election Results

In both political behavior research and voting rights litigation, turnout and vote choice for different racial groups are often inferred using aggregate election results and racial composition. Over the past several decades, many statistical methods have been proposed to address this ecological inference problem. We propose an alternative method to reduce aggregation bias by predicting individual-level ethnicity from voter registration records. Building on the existing methodological literature, we use Bayes's rule to combine the Census Bureau's Surname List with various information from geocoded voter registration records. We evaluate the performance of the proposed methodology using approximately nine million voter registration records from Florida, where self-reported ethnicity is available. We find that it is possible to reduce the false positive rate among Black and Latino voters to 6% and 3%, respectively, while maintaining the true positive rate above 80%. Moreover, we use our predictions to estimate turnout by race and find that our estimates yields substantially less amounts of bias and root mean squared error than standard ecological inference estimates. We provide open-source software to implement the proposed methodology.

Gender Gaps in Electoral Turnout: Surveys versus Administrative Censuses

2021 ◽  
pp. 147892992110195
Author(s):  
Paulo Cox ◽  
Mauricio Morales Quiroga
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Gender Gap ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Electoral Participation ◽  
Gender Gaps ◽  
Electoral Turnout ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Official Data ◽  
Rule Out

Gender gaps in voter turnout are usually studied using opinion surveys rather than official census data. This is because administrative censuses usually do not disaggregate turnout according to voters’ sex. Without this official information, much of the research on gender gaps in electoral turnout relies on survey respondents’ self-reported behavior, either before or after an election. The decision to use survey data implies facing several potential drawbacks. Among them are the turnout overstatement bias and the attrition or nonresponse bias, both affecting the estimation of factors explaining turnout and any related statistical analysis. Furthermore, these biases may be correlated with covariates such as gender: men, more than women, may systematically overstate their electoral participation. We analyze turnout gender gaps in Chile, comparing national surveys with official administrative data, which in Chile are publicly available. Crucially, the latter includes the official record of sex, age, and the electoral behavior—whether the individual voted or not—for about 14 million registered individuals. Based on a series of statistical models, we find that analysis based on survey data is likely to rule out gender gaps in electoral participation. Carrying out the same exercises, but with official data, leads to the opposite conclusion, namely, that there is a sizable gender gap favoring women.

Eviction and Voter Turnout: The Political Consequences of Housing Instability

2021 ◽  
pp. 003232922110507
Author(s):  
Gillian Slee ◽  
Matthew Desmond
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Additive Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Endogeneity Bias ◽  
Political Consequences ◽  
Housing Costs ◽  
Election Results ◽  
The Impact

In recent years, housing costs have outpaced incomes in the United States, resulting in millions of eviction filings each year. Yet no study has examined the link between eviction and voting. Drawing on a novel data set that combines tens of millions of eviction and voting records, this article finds that residential eviction rates negatively impacted voter turnout during the 2016 presidential election. Results from a generalized additive model show eviction’s effect on voter turnout to be strongest in neighborhoods with relatively low rates of displacement. To address endogeneity bias and estimate the causal effect of eviction on voting, the analysis treats commercial evictions as an instrument for residential evictions, finding that increases in neighborhood eviction rates led to substantial declines in voter turnout. This study demonstrates that the impact of eviction reverberates far beyond housing loss, affecting democratic participation.

Candidate Preference, State Context, and Voter Turnout: Comparing Non-Voters and Voters in the 2016 Presidential Election

The Forum ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 203-227
Author(s):  
Vladimir E. Medenica ◽  
Matthew Fowler
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Electoral Behavior ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Contextual Variation ◽  
Candidate Preference ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
Attitudes And Behavior ◽  
Future Work ◽  
State Context

Abstract While much attention has been paid to understanding the drivers of support for Donald Trump, less focus has been placed on understanding the factors that led individuals to turn out and vote or stay home. This paper compares non-voters and voters in the 2016 election and explores how self-reported candidate preference prior to the election predicted turnout across three different state contexts: (1) all states, (2) closely contested states won by Trump, and (3) closely contested states won by Clinton. We find that preference for both candidates predicted turnout in the aggregate (all states) and in closely contested states won by Clinton, but only preference for Trump predicted turnout in the closely contested states won by Trump. Moreover, we find that political interest is negatively associated with preference for Clinton when examining candidate preferences among non-voters. Our analysis suggests that non-voters in the 2016 election held meaningful candidate preferences that impacted voter turnout but that state context played an important role in this relationship. This study sheds light on an understudied component of the 2016 election, the attitudes and behavior of non-voters, as well as points to the importance of incorporating contextual variation in future work on electoral behavior and voter turnout.

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