Response Bias in Survey Measures of Voter Behavior: Implications for Measurement and Inference

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 192-198
Author(s):  
Claire Adida ◽  
Jessica Gottlieb ◽  
Eric Kramon ◽  
Gwyneth McClendon
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Response Bias ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Experimental Treatment ◽  
Short Report ◽  
Measurement Instruments ◽  
Election Results ◽  
The Village ◽  
Data Representative ◽  
Analyze Data

AbstractThis short report exploits a unique opportunity to investigate the implications of response bias in survey questions about voter turnout and vote choice in new democracies. We analyze data from a field experiment in Benin, where we gathered official election results and panel survey data representative at the village level, allowing us to directly compare average outcomes across both measurement instruments in a large number of units. We show that survey respondents consistently overreport turning out to vote and voting for the incumbent, and that the bias is large and worse in contexts where question sensitivity is higher. This has important implications for the inferences we draw about an experimental treatment, indicating that the response bias we identify is correlated with treatment. Although the results using the survey data suggest that the treatment had the hypothesized impact, they are also consistent with social desirability bias. By contrast, the administrative data lead to the conclusion that the treatment had no effect.

The 2016 Pennsylvania Presidential and U.S. Senate Elections: Breaking Pennsylvania’s Electoral Habits

Commonwealth ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Berwood Yost ◽  
Jackie Redman ◽  
Scottie Thompson
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Voter Registration ◽  
Current Direction ◽  
Senate Elections ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
Election Results

This article uses pre-election survey data, post-election survey data, and voter registration and election data to interpret the outcomes of the 2016 presidential and U.S. Senate races in Pennsylvania. This analysis shows how changes in voter registration and voter turnout in specific areas of the Commonwealth, driven in large part by less-educated voters, those dissatisfied with the current direction of the country, and the performance of the incumbent president, explain the 2016 election results. 

Gender Gaps in Electoral Turnout: Surveys versus Administrative Censuses

2021 ◽  
pp. 147892992110195
Author(s):  
Paulo Cox ◽  
Mauricio Morales Quiroga
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Gender Gap ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Electoral Participation ◽  
Gender Gaps ◽  
Electoral Turnout ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Official Data ◽  
Rule Out

Gender gaps in voter turnout are usually studied using opinion surveys rather than official census data. This is because administrative censuses usually do not disaggregate turnout according to voters’ sex. Without this official information, much of the research on gender gaps in electoral turnout relies on survey respondents’ self-reported behavior, either before or after an election. The decision to use survey data implies facing several potential drawbacks. Among them are the turnout overstatement bias and the attrition or nonresponse bias, both affecting the estimation of factors explaining turnout and any related statistical analysis. Furthermore, these biases may be correlated with covariates such as gender: men, more than women, may systematically overstate their electoral participation. We analyze turnout gender gaps in Chile, comparing national surveys with official administrative data, which in Chile are publicly available. Crucially, the latter includes the official record of sex, age, and the electoral behavior—whether the individual voted or not—for about 14 million registered individuals. Based on a series of statistical models, we find that analysis based on survey data is likely to rule out gender gaps in electoral participation. Carrying out the same exercises, but with official data, leads to the opposite conclusion, namely, that there is a sizable gender gap favoring women.

Eviction and Voter Turnout: The Political Consequences of Housing Instability

2021 ◽  
pp. 003232922110507
Author(s):  
Gillian Slee ◽  
Matthew Desmond
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Additive Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Endogeneity Bias ◽  
Political Consequences ◽  
Housing Costs ◽  
Election Results ◽  
The Impact

In recent years, housing costs have outpaced incomes in the United States, resulting in millions of eviction filings each year. Yet no study has examined the link between eviction and voting. Drawing on a novel data set that combines tens of millions of eviction and voting records, this article finds that residential eviction rates negatively impacted voter turnout during the 2016 presidential election. Results from a generalized additive model show eviction’s effect on voter turnout to be strongest in neighborhoods with relatively low rates of displacement. To address endogeneity bias and estimate the causal effect of eviction on voting, the analysis treats commercial evictions as an instrument for residential evictions, finding that increases in neighborhood eviction rates led to substantial declines in voter turnout. This study demonstrates that the impact of eviction reverberates far beyond housing loss, affecting democratic participation.

scholarly journals KEPUTUSAN SUMBER PEMBELANJAAN PADA USAHA MIKRO KECIL MENENGAH (UMKM) SWALAYAN DI DESA MULYOAGUNG KECAMATAN DAU MALANG

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Abdimas Haidar Rahbany
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Small Businesses ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Considerable Cost ◽  
Qualitative Descriptive ◽  
Self Service ◽  
The Village ◽  
Micro Enterprises

The purpose of this study was to determine the source of funds used in the micro and small businesses in the village supermarket Mulyoagung District of DAU. The method used is the method of survey, data analysis is qualitative descriptive analysis based on primary and secondary data. Based on the results of a survey conducted by the researchers of the 10 self-service according to the class of micro enterprises in the village Mulyoagung DAU Malang, there is a 100% initial planning. the source of funds used for micro and small businesses in the supermarket, the source of funds used approximately 75.5% use their own capital due, which was developed in the supermarket business is already quite big and cost quite a lot. Supermarkets that require considerable cost using capital loans at the bank around 24.5% to run a business in this way could make more developed self.

scholarly journals PERSEPSI PEMILIH PEMULA TERHADAP KINERJA PEYELENGGARA PEMILU PRESIDEN TAHUN 2014

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Solihin ◽  
Tree Setiawan Pamungkas ◽  
Jhon Roi Tua Purba
Keyword(s):  
Data Collection ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Random Sampling ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
General Election ◽  
Electoral Institutions ◽  
Research Survey ◽  
Level Of Confidence ◽  
Election Results

The rapid population of beginner voters in Indonesia than in 2004-2009 should be a calculation in influencing election results. Perception of beginner voters on the performance of electoral institutions in a sense it is important to be discussed because of the independence and professionalism an important factor general election success.This study uses the quantitative research survey. Data collection techniques by questionnaire. The sampling technique is done with strafied random sampling technique. The survey conducted on students at nine universities in YogyakartaResults from this study: First, Knowledge voters on electoral institutions. Voters who do not know Bawaslu that as many as 49.7 percent of respondents. As for the KPU as much as 65.1 percent of voters know; Second, the level of confidence in electoral institutions quite good 57.2 percent of voters believe; Third, the perception of the neutrality of electoral institutions 50.5 percent; and Fourth, the Electoral Institute of Professionalism 48.1 percent of voters declared "professional"; and Fifth, Satisfaction with the performance of the KPU was satisfied only 44.4 percent, while 40.5 percent expressed "not satisfied.In conclusion the perception of beginner voters on the performance of electoral institutions KPU and Bawaslu overall is still relatively low and should be increased by way of socialization to voters. Keywords: general election, performance of electoral institutions, beginner voters, voter perceptions Pesatnya populasi pemilih pemula di Indonesia dari tahun 2004-2009patut menjadi perhitungan dalam mempengaruhi hasil Pemilu. Persepsi pemilih pemula terhadap kinerja peyelenggara Pemilu di rasa penting untuk di bahas dikarenakan independensi dan profesionalitas peyelenggara merupakan faktor penting keberhasilan peyelenggaraanPemilu.Penelitian ini menggunakan metode penelitian kuantitatif yakni survei. Teknik pengumpulan data dengan kuesioner. Teknik pengambilan sampel dilakukan dengan teknik strafied random sampling. Survei dilakukan terhadap mahasiswa di 9 perguruan tinggi di DIY.Hasil dari penelitian ini: Pertama, Pengetahuan pemilih terhadap lembaga penyelenggara pemilihan umum.pemilih pemula yang tidak mengetahui Bawaslu yakni sebanyak 49,7 persen responden. Sedangkan untuk KPU sebanyak 65,1 persen pemilih pemula mengetahui; Kedua, Tingkat kepercayaan terhadap lembaga peyelenggara pemilihan umum cukup baik 57,2 persen pemilih pemula percaya; Ketiga, Persepsi terhadap netralitas lembaga penyelenggara pemilihan umum 50,5 persen; dan Keempat, Profesionalisme Lembaga Pemilu 48,1 persen pemilih pemula menyatakan “professional”.; dan Kelima, Kepuasan terhadap kinerja KPU menyatakan puas hanya 44,4 persen sedangkan 40,5 persen lainnya menyatakan “tidak puas”.Kesimpulannya persepsi pemilih pemula terhadap kinerja peyelenggaraan pemilu yakni KPU dan Bawaslu secara keseluruhan masih tergolong rendah dan harus dilakukan peningkatan dengan cara sosialisasi terhadap pemilih pemula. Kata Kunci: pemilihan umum, pemilih pemula, persepsi pemilih, kinerja peyelenggara pemilu

scholarly journals EM Site A.C. Magnetic Field Sources, Surveys and Solutions Part IV: Survey Data Analysis

1996 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 20-21
Author(s):  
Curt Dunnam
Keyword(s):  
Magnetic Field ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
Magnetic Fields ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Field Survey ◽  
Survey Methods ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Measured Field ◽  
The Magnetic Field ◽  
Analyze Data

Up to the present waypoint in this series on EM site magnetic fields, we have identified typical sources of time-varying magnetic field intensities, examined salient field characteristics and illustrated correct survey methods. Our goal this month is to analyze data collected at a proposed site and answer the key question of whether or not the candidate site is, as far as magnetic fields go, acceptable for EM use. In the process of analyzing the magnetic field survey data we will define some of the interpretive techniques involved and observe the distinction between localized (a.c. power) and non-localized (geomagnetic) time-varying fields. Finally, we will discuss the implications of EM susceptibility threshold vs. measured field ratios when considering remedial site shielding.

Mobilization Against the Left? Partisan Consequences of Voter Turnout in the Post-Communist Context

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Michal Nový
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Class Voting ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Explanatory Mechanism

AbstractDoes higher turnout support left-wing parties, as many previous studies assume? Theoretical discussions thus far have been relatively inconclusive. This study proposes three different explanatory mechanisms for examining an aggregate-level relationship between turnout and electoral support for political parties in the post-communist milieu. The conventional hypothesis, based on the assumptions of a successful re-stratification of society and the relevance of class voting, states that higher turnout benefits the left. The second hypothesis is derived from the Michigan model of party identification. In this case, political parties with less loyal electorates would be expected to profit from higher rates of electoral participation. However, this article makes the case for a third possible explanation, termed simply “mobilization against the left,” which reverses the conventional hypothesis. The idea is that the more people come to the polls, the stronger the post-communist right-wing parties will be. This analysis includes two Czech regions that can be said to be farthest away from each other in terms of their socioeconomic and political characteristics. Having analyzed the 2010 Czech parliamentary election results across 1444 electoral districts in two regions, Central Bohemia and Moravia-Silesia, we conclude that there is certain empirical evidence that supports the proposed explanatory mechanism regarding the relationship between voter turnout and share of votes for political parties.

Tripolyan Notes

1964 ◽  
Vol 30 ◽  
pp. 56-65 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Sulimirski
Keyword(s):  
Large Mass ◽  
Small Distance ◽  
Short Report ◽  
Small Stream ◽  
Sketch Plan ◽  
Tripolye Culture ◽  
The Village

In my article published in the Proceedings for 1950, I mentioned the settlement at Nowosiółka Kostiukowa in West Podolia belonging to the final period of the Tripolye culture. Recently, during my visit to Poland, I was able to recover some of my pre-war notes which escaped destruction, thanks to Professor R. Jamka, Cracow; among these was also a short report on investigation of the settlement above and a sketch plan.A field known as ‘Petrynskie’ lay c. 3 kilometres east of the village of Nowosiółka Kostiukowa, over 4 kilometres from the river Seret, a tributary of the Dniester, in the valley of a small stream which ultimately joins the river. On the southern slopes of this valley, north of a narrow lane cut deep in the loess and on the surface of the field lay a large mass of potsherds, lumps of fired clay plaster (of ‘ploščadka’ huts), stones, flints, etc. This was mostly Tripolyan painted ware of Koszyłowce type, belonging to T. S. Passek's period C-1, although wrongly considered to be of period C-2. However, many black, highly polished potsherds were also found, of what is known as the ‘Thracian Hallstatt’ ware, mainly in the lower part of the field. All these remains formed small concentrations marking the sites of ancient huts situated at a small distance from each other.

Political Cynicism, Public Interest Blackballing and Voter Turnout: The Case of South Korea's 2000 National Assembly Elections

2004 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-111 ◽  
Author(s):  
SUNWOONG KIM ◽  
KISUK CHO
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Public Interest ◽  
Negative Information ◽  
Regression Analyses ◽  
The South ◽  
Aggregated Data ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Political Cynicism

In the South Korea's 16th National Assembly (NA) elections held on 13 April 2000, there was widespread speculation that the Citizens Alliance's (CA's) public interest blackballing campaign against ‘unfit’ candidates increased voter cynicism and decreased voter turnout, as it was the lowest ever for NA elections. We empirically evaluate this speculation by conducting logit analyses of individual voter survey data as well as regression analyses on district-wide aggregated data on turnout. Although we find that cynical voters are likely to be more sympathetic to CA's blackballing campaign, we do not find any evidence that the campaign decreases voter turnout. These findings are consistent with Kahn and Kenny (1999) who argue that voters respond well to the negative information if it is presented in an appropriate manner.

scholarly journals By the Numbers: Election Data

2016 ◽  
Vol 44 (3) ◽  
pp. 9
Author(s):  
Pamela Campbell ◽  
Katrina Stierholz
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Voter Registration ◽  
Private Institutions ◽  
Delivery Methods ◽  
Related Information ◽  
Election Results ◽  
State And Local ◽  
The Many ◽  
Many Sources ◽  
Election Studies

Election-related information covers a broad range of topics—voter registration, voter turnout, opinion polls, election results, and campaign finance data—spanning national, state, and local levels. Who collects and provides all the data related to an election? Interestingly, many sources of election statistics are available online through private institutions (e.g., universities, research institutions) rather than government sources. This applies to both recent information and historical information.This article focuses on just a few of the many resources for election data. Three sources are briefly examined, followed by an in-depth look at one source: the American National Election Studies (ANES). These sources cover a broad range of subject matter and delivery methods. The Library of Congress offers other resources at its election statistics Web Guide (www.loc.gov/rr/program/bib/elections/statistics.html).

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