scholarly journals Application of the CORAL GMDH Algorithm for Modeling and Forecasting the National Income of Ukraine

2021 ◽  
pp. 35-50
Author(s):  
Yevgeniya A. Savchenko-Synyakova ◽  
◽  
Olena V. Tutova ◽  
Halyna A. Pidnebesna ◽  
◽  
...  

CORAL GMDH is a method of the inductive approach. In this article it is used for modeling and forecasting socio-economic processes. Here the CORAL GMDH algorithm is applied to solve three problems: recovery of missing data, modeling of macroeconomic indicators, and forecasting the gross national income (GNI). Also, the CORAL GMDH algorithm is used to build models in the problem of modeling the dependence of GNI on socio-demographic indicators and develop recommendations on how the state can influence the level of human capital development in the country by influencing certain socio-demographic indices. The results of modeling for Ukraine, Belarus, and Poland are compared.

Author(s):  
Jeļena Lonska ◽  
Iveta Mietule

<p>Methodologically this research is based on the approach of many social scientists who argue that there is a bidirectional link: one runs from human capital development to economic growth and overall human development, when human capital helps increase national income and society development; the other runs from economic growth to human capital development, as the resources from national income are allocated to activities contributing to human capital development. The study aims to empirically verify the existence of this interaction by carrying out a correlation analysis of the human capital development level among 120 countries, assessed by the Human Capital Index, and the world's national economic development level, as demonstrated by the Global Competitiveness Index, as well as the level of development of the world's nations (societies) as demonstrated by the Human Development Index.</p>The result of the analysis empirically demonstrated a strong link between the human capital development with the country's economic (r = +0.944, p = 0.000) and national development (r = +0.882, p = 0.000) in total by all countries. Nevertheless, carrying out the correlation analysis by groups of countries, which are divided according to the calculation methodology of the Global Competitiveness Index, depending on their stage of economic development, the relationship between human capital development and nation’s development is becoming weaker in some groups of countries, with the remaining strong correlation between the development of human capital and the economic development of a state in all groups of countries. This means that only highly developed human capital can contribute to the country's economic development, and vice versa, national economic performance increases human capital development in the framework of effective development policy. On the other hand, not always a close interaction between nation’s development and human capital development can be faced, since a highly developed human capital means the quality of the developed human capital


ASJ. ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (40) ◽  
pp. 53-57
Author(s):  
A.V. Kurbatov A.V., ◽  
L.A. Kurbatova

The continuing build-up in the speed of deepening of the global economic crisis, driven by just as fast drop in quantity of the external resources calculated per inhabitant of our planet, forces us to refer to internal resources in order to prevent the irreversible losses, to overcome the crisis and ensure the sustainable development. Beginning from the second half of the 20-th century, the hopes for efficient deployment of internal resources have been laid on the development of the human-capital theory. However, despite the intensive change in perception of the very concept of "human capital" and a wide scope of innovative models of its practical application, aimed at bringing the economy out of stagnation, the desired outcome is not achieved. The trend of transferring of the bulk of investments to human capital, at the expense of the share of investments spent on increased production, has proved insufficient. The analysis of causes of ultra-high risks of investments in increase of human capital has helped to determine that the models, which are used currently, do not take into account some of the fundamental patterns, which ensure the high efficiency of investment in human capital. Most of the models are based on application of the methods of situational governance, which, at best, have a short-term positive effect. This trend results from the insufficient awareness of managers of the fundamental patterns of human capital development, which deprives the investors of the possibility to benefit from the optimal combination of the situational governance with relevant long-term programs, which can steadily increase human capital. The researches of the fundamental patterns of human capital development have shown, that the main factor for achieving the high efficiency of investment in human capital is the correct organization of the processes of value determination of the subjects of economic activity and the transition from the value determination to value-semantic determination, thus ensuring guaranteed attainment of goals along with high dynamics of resources. The work presented here is dedicated to the method of managing the quality of human capital, which is hereafter referred to as value-semantic economy.


Author(s):  
Volodymyr Ryabchenko

There are following prerequisites outlined in this article: worldwide democratization trend; complexity of structures of social systems; growing needs in human capital development; autonomy of national higher education institutions; civilizational problem of Ukraine in national elite. Conceptual problems on a road to real democracy in higher education institutions were actualized and analyzed. Determined and characterized three models of higher education institutions activities based on the level of democratization needs of their social environment as: negative, neutral and favorable.


2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (10) ◽  
pp. 58-63
Author(s):  
O. N. KUSAKINA ◽  
◽  
S. V. SOKOLOV ◽  

The article is devoted to research of dynamics of disposable resources of rural and urban households; components of disposable resources of households depending on the place of residence (per household member on average); structure of consumer expenditures of rural households based on official statistics for 2018–2020. The presented findings may serve as a basis for justifying the trends in social and economic conditions necessary for the growth of human capital in rural areas.


Author(s):  
D.Y. Ivanov ◽  
◽  
E.Y. Suslov ◽  
K.V. Evdokimov ◽  
V.I. Samorukov ◽  
...  

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document