scholarly journals BANK LENDING IN UKRAINE AND SIMULATION OF CREDIT ACTIVITY BY METHODS OF SYSTEM DYNAMICS

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (2) ◽  
pp. 101-127
Author(s):  
Svitlana Hlushchenko ◽  
◽  
Sergiy Ivakhnenkov ◽  
Sofiia Demkiv ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Bank Loans ◽  
Bank Loan ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Loan Portfolio ◽  
Stage Of Development

The article identifies trends in bank lending to companies and households in Ukraine and considers modeling and integrated mapping of demand and supply of bank loans using the methods of system dynamics. The article shows that by 2020 the main trends in the Ukrainian banking sector are: a) increased dynamics of return on capital (29.7%) and reduced dynamics of interest rates on deposits (6.6%) and loans (14.8%); b) growth of the dynamics of bank loans in general, including the following characteristics: the largest share of the bank loan portfolio is accounted for by loans to economic entities, while loans to households account for 21.9%; loans to households are growing faster compared to the growth rate of loans to businesses; in the sectoral context, the largest share in lending is accounted for by the trade sector; short-term consumer loans predominate in household lending (82%); half of the loan portfolio of commercial banks consists of short-term loans; the share of non-performing loans in the total volume of issued loans remains high (48.75%); c) the deposit portfolio is dominated by household deposits, but in the dynamics there is a tendency to decrease in their share. Based on the methods of system dynamics, the authors present a model that allows to trace the relationship between commercial banks and legal entities and individuals, as well as to forecast the amounts of bank loans in accordance with the demand for loans from businesses and households (weighted by the maximum value credit load) and supply of credit resources by commercial banks. From a practical point of view, characterization of trends in banking, modeling the interaction of major participants in bank lending and determining the volume of bank loans using methods of system dynamics will help identify the main factors influencing the supply and demand of bank credit resources at the current stage of development of Ukraine and predict future dynamics of lending.

scholarly journals Bank lending in Ukraine and simulation of credit activity by methods of system dynamics

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (2) ◽  
pp. 89-109
Author(s):  
Hlushchenko Svitlana ◽  
◽  
Ivakhnenkov Sergiy ◽  
Demkiv Sofiia ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Bank Loans ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Loan Portfolio

The trends of bank crediting of businesses and households in Ukraine are determined and credit interrelations between subjects of economy by means of methods of system dynamics simulated. The article shows that by end 2020 the main trends in the Ukrainian banking sector are: 1) increasing the dynamics of return on capital, consistently high interest rates on loans until 2019 and their declining dynamics in 2020; 2) declining trends in the dynamics of the share of loans in the assets of commercial banks and the indicator of the financial depth of lending to the Ukrainian economy; 3) predominance of the share of loans to businesses in comparison with the share of loans to households in the loan banking portfolio; 4) faster growth rates of bank loans to households compared to the growth rates of lending to businesses; 5) in the sectoral context, the largest share in lending to business units is accounted for by trade and in lending to households – by consumer lending; 6) half of the loan portfolio of commercial banks are short-term loans for up to one year; 7) the share of non-performing loans in the loan portfolio remains high; 8) gradual reduction of non-deposit sources among the liabilities of commercial banks and their transition to almost full financing at the expense of customer deposits; 9) increase in the share of short-term and decrease in the share of long-term deposit financing of commercial banks. Based on the methods of system dynamics, the authors created a model that allows to trace the relationship between commercial banks-businesses-households, as well as to calculate the forecast volumes of bank loans in accordance with the demand for loans from businesses and households (weighted by the maximum value credit load) and supply of credit resources by commercial banks. From a practical point of view, determining the characteristic trends of bank lending, modeling the interaction of its main participants and determining the volume of bank loans using system dynamics helps to identify key factors influencing the supply and demand of bank credit resources at the present stage of Ukraine’s development and predict future lending dynamics.

scholarly journals The development of bank lending to corporate clients in Ukraine in times of economic cycles

2017 ◽  
pp. 72-87 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yaroslav Chaikovskyi
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Bank Loans ◽  
Bank Loan ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Economic Cycles ◽  
Loan Portfolios ◽  
Major Factors ◽  
Corporate Clients

The article considers bank lending to corporate clients in Ukraine overcoming the issues related to economic cycles. The dynamics of gross domestic product, total assets, and credit portfolios of Ukraine’s banks over the period between 2012 and 2016 is analyzed. The changes in the composition of bank loans to non-financial corporations are analyzed in terms of scheduled payments, forms of currencies, target allocation and economic activities. Additionally, the dynamics and composition of residents’ deposits mobilized by deposit-taking corporations are considered in terms of scheduled payments over the above period. The major factors that hinder the recovery of bank lending to corporate clients are identified. It is highlighted that the main obstacles to the development of banking lending to corporate clients in Ukraine in times of economic cycles are as follows: high interest rates; a significant percentage of unprofitable enterprises and loan arrears in bank loan portfolios; an increase of non-performing loans (NPL); the fact that banks, having sufficient liquidity for lending to economy-boosting projects, prefer to purchase government securities; corrupt practices of granting loans to affiliated companies (insider loans). The percentage of unprofitable enterprises in Ukraine in 2016 is determined and analyzed by type of economic activity. Based on the analysis performed, some assumptions are made about the trends of the development of bank lending to corporate clients in Ukraine and proposals on further harmonization of bank lending to corporate clients in times of economic cycles are set out.

scholarly journals The Impact Of Basel III On Italian Banks Loan Rates: An Accounting-Based Approach

2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 1269
Author(s):  
Pasquale Di Biase
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Bank Loans ◽  
Bank Loan ◽  
Basel Iii ◽  
Baseline Scenario ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
The Impact

This paper empirically investigates the impact of the new capital requirements imposed under Basel III on bank lending rates.A general accounting equilibrium model is developed in order to map the change in the average interest rate on bank loans which is required to preserve the economic performance and the market value of financial institutions under the new regulatory framework.The study refers to the Italian banking system. According to our estimates, the long-term impact of heightened capital requirements on bank loan rates is likely to be modest.In our baseline scenario, we find evidence that each percentage point increase in the capital ratio can be recovered by increasing interest rates with which borrowers are charged by only 5.75 basis points. We conclude that the Italian banking system should be able to adjust to the higher capital requirements imposed by Basel III through a set of operative and commercial levers with no significant effects on the cost of credit for companies and consumers.

scholarly journals Market structure, state ownership and monetary policy transmission through bank lending channel: Evidence from Vietnamese commercial banks

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 164-177
Author(s):  
Huu Huan Nguyen ◽  
Minh Vu Ngo ◽  
Thanh Phuc Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Market Structure ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
State Ownership ◽  
Bank Loan ◽  
Bank Lending Channel ◽  
Lending Channel

This paper examines the impact of market structure and state ownership on bank lending as a transmission channel for monetary policies. For controlling the effects of bank heterogeneities and macroeconomic factors on bank lending, dynamic models using two-step difference GMM with panel data collected from 25 Vietnamese commercial banks and the Vietnamese banking sector from 1999 to 2017 are employed. Results indicate that a higher level of concentration in the banking market and state ownership dampen the expected impacts of interbank interest rate on the loan growth in commercial banks, which decreases the effectiveness of monetary policy via the bank lending channel. These results are robust regarding the use of alternative measures of market structure and the inclusion of event time variables in the dynamic model. Based on the findings, monetary policy could be implied using the significant moderating impacts of state-ownership as well as the market structure of the Vietnamese banking sector on the relationship between bank loan supply and interbank interest rate.

scholarly journals Negative interest rates as a consequence of the transformation of monetary arrangements in modern economy: A literature review

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 856-873
Author(s):  
V.K. Burlachkov
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Payment Systems ◽  
Modern Economy ◽  
Negative Interest Rates ◽  
Effective Instrument ◽  
Business Entities

Subject. The article considers negative interest rates applied by both central and commercial banks on deposits and loans under conditions of significant changes in monetary arrangements of the modern economy. Currently, the number of central and commercial banks using such interest rates tends to increase. Objectives. The aim is to review theoretical and practical scientific studies on identifying the root causes of using the negative interest rates and the implications of this practice in the modern economy. Methods. The study involves methods of induction, deduction, synthesis, and comparative analysis. Results. The application of negative interest rates by central banks is aimed at stimulating the use of money (the banking sector liquidity) in central banks’ payment systems. The application of negative rates by commercial banks is related to the absence of commercial banks’ interest in using the deposits of business entities in conditions when the volumes of bank lending are restricted by Basel standards, i.e. by the Capital to Risk (Weighted) Assets Ratio (CRAR). Conclusions. Using the negative interest rates due to the specifics of the modern monetary arrangements cannot be characterized as an effective instrument of modern monetary policy implementation. Refusal to apply negative interest rates practices should be supported by effective coordination between the central bank money (the banking sector liquidity) and M1 money supply, which is formed as result of commercial banks’ credit transactions.

scholarly journals FEATURES OF LENDING BY COMMERCIAL BANKS AND MICROFINANCIAL ORGANIZATIONS

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Myropolska ◽  
Sofiia Dombrovska
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Small Businesses ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Bank Loans ◽  
Bank Loan ◽  
Ordinary People ◽  
Savings Accounts ◽  
Debt Capital ◽  
Low Incomes ◽  
Definition Of

The article considers the interaction of microfinance organizations with banks. The features associated with lending by commercial banks and microfinance organizations, which have now gained significant popularity, are indicated. The development of microfinance organizations is associated with certain restrictions for the population with low incomes in providing them with credit resources by commercial banks. In today's economic environment there is an increased demand for borrowed funds, in traditional banks, as financial institutions with regulated lending conditions, the loan is approved when the borrower submits a pledge, so that if the borrower is unable to repay the loan with interest, the pledge provided by the borrower , was withdrawn by the bank and used as a way to repay the loan. But there is still a large part of the population that is unable to provide collateral to advance a bank loan. And because of this we can conclude that banks can not fully meet the demand for debt capital for the impoverished, and therefore as an alternative to banking lending was introduced the concept of microcredit, which allows people to advance loans without any collateral. Unlike traditional loans, where the loan is provided only if the borrower provides something as collateral and the appropriate amount of interest determined by the bank, microcredit does not require any collateral in exchange for the loan, but is provided at much higher interest rates rates than conventional bank loans. The definition of microcredit is a small loan that is usually financed for entrepreneurial projects, impoverished people and groups, especially in poor or developing countries. Microcredit is part of the microfinance industry. Microfinance is a way of providing loans, credits, insurance, access to savings accounts and remittances to small businesses and entrepreneurs in underdeveloped parts of the world. Beneficiaries of microfinance are those who, as a rule, do not have access to traditional financial resources like ordinary people, but compared to ordinary loans, interest rates on microcredit are slightly higher than on ordinary loans.

scholarly journals The Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy? The Panel Evidence from Egypt

2014 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 255 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamed Aseel Shokr ◽  
Zulkefly Abdul Karim ◽  
Mansor Jusoh ◽  
Mohd. Azlan Shah Shah Zaidi
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Bank Loans ◽  
Bank Loan ◽  
Bank Lending Channel ◽  
Lending Channel ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Effect Of Monetary Policy

This paper examines the relevance of the bank lending channel of monetary policy in Egypt using bank-level data. Previous empirical studies in Egypt that used macro-level data have not supported the relevance of the bank lending channel. However, using a sample of 32 commercial banks for the period from 1998 until 2011 and a dynamic panel GMM technique, the empirical findings revealed the relevance of the bank lending channel of monetary policy in Egypt. Moreover, there is a heterogeneity effect of monetary policy on bank loans according to bank size, in which the small banks are more affected during a monetary contraction than larger banks. This finding signals that the monetary authorities in Egypt should take cognizance of the stability of interest rates in order to stabilize the bank loan supply.       

scholarly journals ANALISIS INTEREST RATE PASS-THROUGH PADA MEKANISME TRANSMISI KEBIJAKAN MONETER INDONESIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 125
Author(s):  
Risna Amalia Hamzah ◽  
Handri Handri
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Money Market ◽  
Bank Loans ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Consumer Loans ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Interest Rate

This reseach aimed to evaluate the performance of monetary policy, toexamine and test the magnitude of the response rates on deposits and bank loans to the money market interest rate, and how fast adjustment of the interest rate of deposits and loans in response to changes in money market interest rates. The performance evaluation of the level of adjustment of interest rate pass-through is done by testing the coefficient of adjustment of the interest rate deposits and loans in response to changes in money market interest rates. The object of this reseach is reported in interest rates interbank money market (rPUAB) and bank interest rates (loans and deposits) of all commercial banks in Indonesia, the data used in the form of a row of monthly time (monthly time series) of the annual report of Bank Indonesia and SEKI ( Economic and Financial statistics Indonesia), in the period 2005-2016. The method used in this research is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) for calculating the amount of long-term coefficients and Error Correction Model (ECM) -ARDL for calculating the amount of short-term coefficients. We find of the analysis indicate a change of monetary policy in the short term through the interest rate channel with its operational targets interest rates interbank money market (interbank) did not respond in full by the rates on deposits and loans in commercial banks in Indonesia, represented by the value of the degree of pass- through which less than 1 and there is a tendency that the longterm interest rates on loans and deposits experienced incomplete pass-through, then interest rates on consumer loans and deposits of 24 months has the speed of the slowest, which means consumer loans and deposits of 24 months in Indonesia unresponsive to changes in interbank rates. keywords: ARDL, ECM, Interest Rate pass-through, PUAB.

Determinants of commercial bank loan and advance disbursement: the case of private Ethiopian commercial banks

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tekeste Birhanu ◽  
Sewunet Bosho Deressa ◽  
Hossein Azadi ◽  
Ants-Hannes Viira ◽  
Steven Van Passel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Commercial Bank ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Bank Loans ◽  
Bank Loan ◽  
Portfolio Investment ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lending Rate

PurposeThis paper aimed to investigate the determinants of loans and advances from commercial banks in the case of Ethiopian private commercial banks.Design/methodology/approachThe study randomly selected seven commercial banks to represent the population stratified on their asset, deposit and paid-up capital amounts. The study utilized an unbalanced panel data model as each bank started operation at a different period of time and considered the period 1995–2016 for secondary details.FindingsThe findings showed that the deposit size, credit risk, portfolio investment, average lending rate, real gross domestic product (GDP) and inflation rate had significant and optimistic effects on the lending and advancement of private commercial banks. On the contrary, liquidity ratio had significant and negative effects on private commercial bank loans and advances. Finally, the study forwarded a feasible recommendation for concerned organs to focus on deposit size, credit risk, portfolio investment, average lending rate, real GDP, inflation rate and liquidity ratio. The results of this study will help banking industry policymakers and planners understand how to minimize inflation and unemployment by improving development and sustainable economic growth.Originality/valueThe findings of this study can also affect the general attitudes of a society by increasing knowledge and improve the quality of life for the general public.

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