scholarly journals Negative interest rates as a consequence of the transformation of monetary arrangements in modern economy: A literature review

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 856-873
Author(s):  
V.K. Burlachkov
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Payment Systems ◽  
Modern Economy ◽  
Negative Interest Rates ◽  
Effective Instrument ◽  
Business Entities

Subject. The article considers negative interest rates applied by both central and commercial banks on deposits and loans under conditions of significant changes in monetary arrangements of the modern economy. Currently, the number of central and commercial banks using such interest rates tends to increase. Objectives. The aim is to review theoretical and practical scientific studies on identifying the root causes of using the negative interest rates and the implications of this practice in the modern economy. Methods. The study involves methods of induction, deduction, synthesis, and comparative analysis. Results. The application of negative interest rates by central banks is aimed at stimulating the use of money (the banking sector liquidity) in central banks’ payment systems. The application of negative rates by commercial banks is related to the absence of commercial banks’ interest in using the deposits of business entities in conditions when the volumes of bank lending are restricted by Basel standards, i.e. by the Capital to Risk (Weighted) Assets Ratio (CRAR). Conclusions. Using the negative interest rates due to the specifics of the modern monetary arrangements cannot be characterized as an effective instrument of modern monetary policy implementation. Refusal to apply negative interest rates practices should be supported by effective coordination between the central bank money (the banking sector liquidity) and M1 money supply, which is formed as result of commercial banks’ credit transactions.

scholarly journals Bank lending in Ukraine and simulation of credit activity by methods of system dynamics

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (2) ◽  
pp. 89-109
Author(s):  
Hlushchenko Svitlana ◽  
◽  
Ivakhnenkov Sergiy ◽  
Demkiv Sofiia ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Bank Loans ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Loan Portfolio

The trends of bank crediting of businesses and households in Ukraine are determined and credit interrelations between subjects of economy by means of methods of system dynamics simulated. The article shows that by end 2020 the main trends in the Ukrainian banking sector are: 1) increasing the dynamics of return on capital, consistently high interest rates on loans until 2019 and their declining dynamics in 2020; 2) declining trends in the dynamics of the share of loans in the assets of commercial banks and the indicator of the financial depth of lending to the Ukrainian economy; 3) predominance of the share of loans to businesses in comparison with the share of loans to households in the loan banking portfolio; 4) faster growth rates of bank loans to households compared to the growth rates of lending to businesses; 5) in the sectoral context, the largest share in lending to business units is accounted for by trade and in lending to households – by consumer lending; 6) half of the loan portfolio of commercial banks are short-term loans for up to one year; 7) the share of non-performing loans in the loan portfolio remains high; 8) gradual reduction of non-deposit sources among the liabilities of commercial banks and their transition to almost full financing at the expense of customer deposits; 9) increase in the share of short-term and decrease in the share of long-term deposit financing of commercial banks. Based on the methods of system dynamics, the authors created a model that allows to trace the relationship between commercial banks-businesses-households, as well as to calculate the forecast volumes of bank loans in accordance with the demand for loans from businesses and households (weighted by the maximum value credit load) and supply of credit resources by commercial banks. From a practical point of view, determining the characteristic trends of bank lending, modeling the interaction of its main participants and determining the volume of bank loans using system dynamics helps to identify key factors influencing the supply and demand of bank credit resources at the present stage of Ukraine’s development and predict future lending dynamics.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Policy at a Crossroads

2021 ◽  
Vol 65 (7) ◽  
pp. 5-15
Author(s):  
A. Kholopov
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Negative Interest Rates

The article examines macroeconomic policy options for advanced economies to respond to adverse shocks in the environment of very low interest rates and very high levels of public debt, when the scope for using conventional policy tools is limited. The standard transmission mechanism of monetary policy in the ELB conditions stops working normally, and the economy faces the “liquidity trap” effect. The deployment by central banks of unconventional monetary tools (forward guidance, quantitative easing, and negative interest rates) after global financial crisis was helpful in combatting the downturn, but carries risk of possible side effects. Large-scale purchases of financial assets lead to significant increase in central banks’ balance sheets, and this creates a threat to future financial stability and central bank independence. Negative interest rates can have detrimental effects on bank profitability and be contractionary through bank lending. There is a consensus that today fiscal policy has to play a major role in stabilizing the business cycle. But the effectiveness of conventional tools of discretional fiscal policy is uncertain because of long political lags and small spending multiplier. Existing automatic fiscal stabilizers are focused on social protection goals and not on macroeconomic stabilization. Thus, the newly proposed measures for rules-based fiscal stimulus (asymmetric semiautomatic stabilizers – tax or spending measures triggered by the crossing of some statistical threshold, e.g. a high unemployment rate) and unconventional fiscal policy (the use of consumption taxes to increase inflation expectations) have become the object of active discussion. Here lies the danger in the fusion of monetary and fiscal policy: central banks’ operations are becoming increasingly quasi-fiscal, aimed at financing budget deficit, and functions of monetary policy are proposed to assign to fiscal policy. Besides, the expansion of fiscal stimulus threatens financial stability in the future, as it leads to increase in public debt and narrows a country’s fiscal space.

Negative rates hold few positives for stock investors

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Business Models ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Treasury Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Negative Interest Rates

Subject Financial markets turmoil and negative interest rates. Significance Global stocks are down 11.7% year-to-date in dollar terms and the yield on benchmark ten-year US Treasury bonds has hit a low of 1.66%. The turmoil in financial markets since the beginning of this year is partly attributable to investors' waning confidence in the effectiveness of central bank policy, and, in particular, that negative interest rate policies are exacerbating weaknesses in the banking sector. This is reducing the scope for a rally in equity markets, which have been overly reliant on the flow of cheap money from central banks. Impacts The strong yen will pose a severe challenge to the Japanese government's reflationary programme. While stock markets will remain sensitive to monetary policy, investors will perceive central banks as sources of volatility. The European financials sell-off stems from concerns about their earnings and business models, as opposed to a full-blown liquidity crisis.

scholarly journals BANK LENDING IN UKRAINE AND SIMULATION OF CREDIT ACTIVITY BY METHODS OF SYSTEM DYNAMICS

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (2) ◽  
pp. 101-127
Author(s):  
Svitlana Hlushchenko ◽  
◽  
Sergiy Ivakhnenkov ◽  
Sofiia Demkiv ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Bank Loans ◽  
Bank Loan ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Loan Portfolio ◽  
Stage Of Development

The article identifies trends in bank lending to companies and households in Ukraine and considers modeling and integrated mapping of demand and supply of bank loans using the methods of system dynamics. The article shows that by 2020 the main trends in the Ukrainian banking sector are: a) increased dynamics of return on capital (29.7%) and reduced dynamics of interest rates on deposits (6.6%) and loans (14.8%); b) growth of the dynamics of bank loans in general, including the following characteristics: the largest share of the bank loan portfolio is accounted for by loans to economic entities, while loans to households account for 21.9%; loans to households are growing faster compared to the growth rate of loans to businesses; in the sectoral context, the largest share in lending is accounted for by the trade sector; short-term consumer loans predominate in household lending (82%); half of the loan portfolio of commercial banks consists of short-term loans; the share of non-performing loans in the total volume of issued loans remains high (48.75%); c) the deposit portfolio is dominated by household deposits, but in the dynamics there is a tendency to decrease in their share. Based on the methods of system dynamics, the authors present a model that allows to trace the relationship between commercial banks and legal entities and individuals, as well as to forecast the amounts of bank loans in accordance with the demand for loans from businesses and households (weighted by the maximum value credit load) and supply of credit resources by commercial banks. From a practical point of view, characterization of trends in banking, modeling the interaction of major participants in bank lending and determining the volume of bank loans using methods of system dynamics will help identify the main factors influencing the supply and demand of bank credit resources at the current stage of development of Ukraine and predict future dynamics of lending.

scholarly journals Risks and the influence of negative interest rates on economic activity: a case study of Sweden, Denmark, and Switzerland

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-41
Author(s):  
Liběna Černohorská ◽  
Darina Kubicová
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Stock Indices ◽  
Negative Interest Rates ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of negative interest rates on economic activity in a selected group of countries, in particular Sweden, Denmark, and Switzerland, for the period 2009–2018. The central banks of these countries were among the first to implement negative interest rates to revive the economic growth. Therefore, this study analyzed long- and short-term relationships between interest rates announced by central banks and gross domestic product and blue chip stock indices. Time series analysis was conducted using Engle-Granger cointegration analysis and Granger causality testing to identify long- and short-term relationship. The first step, using the Akaike criteria, was to determine the optimal delay of the entire time interval for the analyzed periods. Time series that seem to be stationary were excluded based on the results of the Dickey-Fuller test. Further testing continued with the Engle-Granger test if the conditions were met. It was designed to identify co-integration relationships that would show correlation between the selected variables. These tests showed that at a significance level of 0.05, there is no co-integration between any time series in the countries analyzed. On the basis of these analyses, it was determined that there were no long-term relationships between interest rates and GDP or stock indices for these countries during the monitored time period. Using Granger causality, the study only confirmed short-term relationship between interest rates and GDP for all examined countries, though not between interest rates and the stock indices. Acknowledgment The paper has been created with the financial support of The Czech Science Foundation GACR 18-05244S – Innovative Approaches to Credit Risk Management.

Lässt sich die Geldschöpfung der Geschäftsbanken noch kontrollieren? – Geldpolitik seit der jüngsten Finanzkrise 2007/2008

2018 ◽  
Vol 87 (3) ◽  
pp. 47-63
Author(s):  
Mathias Binswanger
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
The Past ◽  
Monetary Authorities ◽  
Money Creation ◽  
Recent Financial Crisis

Zusammenfassung: Als Folge der jüngsten Finanzkrise ist der Einfluss der Zentralbanken auf die Geldschöpfung weitgehend verloren gegangen. Denn die Kontrolle über Reserven funktioniert nur solange, wie diese knapp sind und deren Bezug an bestimmte Bedingungen geknüpft werden kann. Seither halten die Geschäftsbanken in den ökonomisch wichtigsten Ländern de facto dermaßen viele Reserven, dass sie nicht mehr auf die jeweilige Zentralbank angewiesen sind. Diese Entwicklung lässt sich sowohl für die FED als auch für die EZB aufzeigen. Dies führt zu geldpolitisch neuen Herausforderungen, die bisher kaum beachtet wurden. Die Einflussmöglichkeit der Zentralbanken auf den Geldschöpfungsprozess der Geschäftsbanken wurde noch nie in so großem Stil ausgehebelt. Deshalb müssen Zentralbanken in Zukunft ihr Repertoire an geldpolitischen Massnahmen erweitern. Nur mit dem Drehen an der Zinsschraube wird man den Geldschöpfungsprozess in Zukunft kaum mehr in gewünschter Weise beeinflussen können. Summary: As a result of the recent financial crisis, the influence of central banks on money creation has largely disappeared. Controlling this process only works as long as money creation of commercial banks also leads to a need for additional reserves from the central bank. However, the large asset purchase programs of monetary authorities after the financial crises resulted in an enormous increase in reserves at commercial banks. Therefore, commercial banks have enough reserves to create additional money at large amounts and do not depend on central banks any more. This development is indicative for both the FED and the ECB. Therefore central banks face the challenge how they can restore their influence on the process of money creation. Just lowering or increasing interest rates, which was the major way of conducting monetary policy in the past, will not work anymore in the future.

scholarly journals Comparison of effects of expansionary monetary policy in the Czech Republic and Slovakia

2020 ◽  
Vol 74 ◽  
pp. 04006
Author(s):  
Boris Fisera ◽  
Jana Kotlebova
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Open Economies ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Economic Developments

The ongoing process of globalization has affected the way the monetary policy is conducted – and this is especially the case of small open economies, where the economic developments are heavily affected by the developments abroad. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to investigate the effects of unconventional monetary policy in two very open economies – Slovakia and the Czech Republic in the post-crisis era – the two rather similar very open economies. We assess the effects of their monetary policies by estimating their impact on the banking sector in both countries. We employ two cointegrating estimators – DOLS and FMOLS, so that we can assess the dynamics of the relationship between the developments of main balance sheet items of the respective central banks and the aggregate bank lending to various sectors of the economy. We do find evidence that unconventional policies of both central banks did lift bank lending – with the effect being stronger in Slovakia and for the QE policies. In both countries, the effect was more pronounced for the bank lending to household sector – specifically on housing related loans. Finally, we do not find evidence that the increasing openness of these two already very open economies affected the transmission of monetary policies into the banking sector.

Another rating upgrade is likely for Hungary soon

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Grade

Significance Hungary thereby regains investment-grade status, albeit at the lowest level, from being downgraded to 'junk' because of doubts about the government's policies and the high public debt burden. Hungary's improving creditworthiness, underpinned by its current account surplus and deleveraging in the banking sector, contrasts with the increasing strain on Poland's credit rating. Political risk has become a major driver of investor sentiment towards emerging markets. Impacts Emerging market assets have become more vulnerable as investors reprice US monetary policy. Futures markets are now assigning a 51% probability to another rise in US interest rates at or before the Federal Reserve's July meeting. Central Europe's government bond markets are being supported by the persistently dovish monetary policy stance of its central banks. This contrasts with Latin America, where inflationary pressures are forcing many central banks to raise rates. Brazil, Turkey, Poland and the Philippines are among several countries where political uncertainty is a key determinant of asset prices.

scholarly journals Ewolucja zmian i zadania banków centralnych w świetle doświadczeń kryzysu finansowego

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 35-50
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Alińska ◽  
Bogusław Pietrzak ◽  
Katarzyna Wasiak
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Communication Policy ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Forward Guidance ◽  
Monetary Authorities ◽  
Effective Instrument ◽  
Targeting Strategy

Communication policy of central banks in the framework of direct inflation targeting strategy and related strategies is important. Its tools include forward guidance as a method of influencing the expectations of market participants. Although forward guidance was used before the outbreak of the financial crisis, it was not popular. After 2008, under conditions of zero interest rate, monetary authorities have begun After 2008, under conditions of zero interest rate, monetary authorities have begun to use the forward guidance as an unconventional and effective instrument allowing monetary policy to have impact on market interest rates. However, the riskswhen using forward guidance include the possibility of misinterpretation of the conditional nature of the declaration of the monetary authorities.

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