scholarly journals IMPACT OF THE RUSSIAN TRADE BANS ON LITHUANIAN PORK SECTOR

2018 ◽  
Vol 40 (4) ◽  
pp. 481-491
Author(s):  
Nelė Jurkėnaitė ◽  
Ivan Djuric
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
Research Problem ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
High Price ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Prices ◽  
Pork Sector

Over the last decade, Lithuanian pork sector faced dramatic changes, where trade relations with Russia had an important role. The research problem is defined as follows: how does the trade ban of Russia, imposed towards live pigs and pork originating from Lithuania, affect price changes on domestic Lithuanian pork market? The research aims at estimating the effects of the trade ban caused by the outbreak of the swine fever in Lithuania and providing proposals on situation development. The aim is achieved by analysing the transmission of price changes between Lithuanian and Russian pork markets by using the ARDL model. The results indicate a significant decrease in transmission of price changes, both in short- and long-run, from Lithuanian pig prices towards Russian domestic prices during the ‘2011 ban’ regime and further worsening of the situation during ‘2014 ban’ period that was mainly caused by the isolation of the Russian market and lack of export diversification strategy from the Lithuanian side. In Lithuania, high price volatility was not typical during the bans, while negative effects on welfare of farmers were evidenced by reduced trade volumes, which could be improved by biosafety and disease spread reducing measures, reassessing trade regulations and partners’ network.

Reflections on Sustainable Development Planning in the Agricultural Industry

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 591
Author(s):  
Aigul TLESOVA ◽  
Saule PRIMBETOVA ◽  
Aigul KAZAMBAYEVA ◽  
Saltanat YESSENGALIYEVA ◽  
Farida MUKHAMBETKALIYEVA
Keyword(s):  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Development Planning ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Agricultural Industry ◽  
Theoretical Approaches ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Prices ◽  
Food Shortages ◽  
Food Reserves

In the past few years, we have experienced a transition from the decades-long period of falling real prices of grains, and food more generally, to a new market environment in which commodity and food prices are higher, more volatile and more highly influenced by petroleum prices. The problems of reaction for price volatility, both in the short- and long-run, are complex and multifaceted. Looking back at the 2007/08 crisis, countries responded through a spectrum of policies, but were largely unprepared, resulting in ad hoc and short-term mechanisms. Countries maintaining food reserves used these to intervene directly in the market to stabilize domestic prices. Many food importing countries reduced import tariffs, while several surplus producing countries limited, or even banned, exports in order to avoid food shortages and further domestic price increases. For whatever actions governments consider taking, it is always important to keep in mind the full set of policy measures, the wider risks and possible responses for the targeted population. The following suggests that choosing appropriate policies requires a deeper understanding of the issues at stake. This paper analyses the various theoretical approaches to the planning of agricultural and food areas of Kazakhstan. The authors consider that the method of forecast scenarios is the most effective one.

scholarly journals Economic Determinants of Nigeria’s Trade with China: A Cointegration Approach

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 214
Author(s):  
Nnanna P. Azu ◽  
Eche Abu-obe
Keyword(s):  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
The Third ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Prices ◽  
Short Run

The China-Nigeria trade volume has been increasing over the years with no signs of slowing down any time soon. This work examined the long-and-short run economic catalysts that stimulate this trade relation with focus on Nigeria’s economic factors as well as the Third Country’s Factors. Japan’s REER was adopted as a Third Country’s Factor and Johansen and Juselius cointegration technique was used to determine the result. The outcome revealed that GDP, trade openness and FDI inflow possess significant positive influence on China-Nigeria trade relations while bilateral exchange rate and Third Country’s Factor are negative determinants, suggesting that improvement in domestic prices and increased real exchange rates of Japan could undermine China-Nigeria bilateral trade, howbeit, in the long-run. So, both countries should gear towards improving domestic prices, efficiency and competitiveness relative to the Third Country’s Effect to curtail its excessive influence on bilateral trade and particularly, Nigeria should focus on redefining its business environment politically and otherwise to attract further FDI and ameliorate its trading sector.

Effects of Crude Oil and Gold Prices on US Stock Market: Evidence for USA from ARDL Bounds Testing

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
AKM Matiur Rahman ◽  
Muhammad Mustafa
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Bounds Testing ◽  
Short Run

<p>This paper explores the effects of changes in crude oil and gold prices on US Stock market movement. Daily data are used from the first business day of January, 1986 through December30, 2016. Efficient unit root tests (DF-GLS and Ng-Perron) are applied to examine the time series property of the variables in terms of stationarity or non-stationarity.  ARDL Bounds Testing is applied for co-integration. Both DF-GLS and Ng-Perron tests confirm non-stationarity of each variable and depict I (1) behavior of all the variables in log-levels, included in this study. The ARDL-Bounds testing confirm co-integration among the variables. There is evidence of long-run convergence among all these variables with very tepid adjustment toward the equilibrium. Short-run negative effects of changes in gold and crude oil prices on US stock market returns are observed. The effect is statistically significant from gold price changes, but insignificant from crude oil price changes.</p>

scholarly journals Volatility and Transmission of Shallot Commodity Prices in Indonesia

2019 ◽  
pp. 50-61
Author(s):  
Kholifatin Artika ◽  
Muhammad Firdaus ◽  
Tony Irawan
Keyword(s):  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Wald Test ◽  
Price Transmission ◽  
High Price ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Strategic Issue ◽  
The Government

The shallot commodity has been becoming a strategic issue for the government nowadays because this commodity has contributed to inflation. The price volatility of shallots causes high price disparities between producers and consumers. This situation gives is detrimental more to farmers and consumers than to traders because it provides more opportunities for traders to manipulate information on price, so that price transmission becomes asymmetric. This paper discusses the price transmission of shallots between three players: farmers, wholesalers and retailers. This study used daily data from January 1st 2017 to December 31st 2017 which were analyzed using the ECM-EG method. The wald test results show that shallots commodities showed a price asymmetry in the short term in each marketing chain, namely between producers to wholesalers, wholesalers to retail and retail to producers. Whereas in the long run, the price asymmetry only exist on the wholesale-retail linkage. Meanwhile the transmission of long-term prices between producers to wholesalers, retail to producers in the long-term is symmetrical.

scholarly journals PENAWARAN EKSPOR PANILI INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 41
Author(s):  
NYAK ILHAM ◽  
SRI HASTUTI SUHARTINI ◽  
BONAR M. M. SINAGA
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
High Quality ◽  
Export Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Prices ◽  
Econometric Analyses ◽  
The U.S

<p>Panili Indonesia sudah dikenal di pasar intenasional dengan nama Java Vanilla Beans dengan kualitas yang cukup baik. Masalahnya mampukah Indonesia mempertahankan kontinuitas penawarannya sesuai dengan kualitas yang diinginkan pasar. Penelitian ini betujuan mcnganalisis: (1) kinerja penawaran atau produksi melalui peilaku luas areal dan produktivitas tanaman panili; (2) peilaku penawaran ekspor komoditas panili ke Jcrman dan Amerika Seikat (AS); dan (3) peilaku harga domestik dan harga ekspor komoditas panili. Data yang digunakan merupakan data sckundcr rentang waktu (lime series) tahunan: 1975 - 2000 pada tingkat nasional dan intenasional. Analisis data menggunakan pendekatan ckonometik dengan metode 2SLS. Hasil analisis menyimpul- kan: (1) luas tanam menghasilkan dipengaruhi oleh upah tenaga kerja secara ncgatif dalam jangka pendek luas tanaman menghasilkan belum rcsponsif terhadap perubahan tingkat upah, akan tetapi dalam jangka panjang menjadi responsif, (2) produktivitas panili dipengaruhi secara positif oleh harga panili domestik, namun produktivitas tidak rcsponsif terhadap perubahan harga; (3) ekspor panili Indonesia ke Jcrman dan AS dipengaruhi oleh ekspor tahun sebelumnya. Hal ini menginformasikan bahwa kegiatan ekspor tersebut terkait dengan kepcrcayaan antara ekspotir Indonesia dengan importir Jerman dan AS; (4) transmisi harga ekspor ke harga yang diteima petani sangat lemah, sementara transmisi harga dunia ke harga ekspor cukup erat Hal ini dapat dilihat dai tidak adanya pengaruh harga ekspor terhadap harga domestik, sedangkan harga ekspor sangat dipengaruhi oleh harga dunia; (5) upaya pengembangan panili di Indonesia lebih diarahkan pada peningkatan kualitas hasil, perluasan tanaman yang berlcbihan hendaknya memperhatikan kecenderungan permintaan ekspor; (6) untuk menjaga pangsa pasar panili Indonesia di pasar intenasional hendaknya tetap meningkatkan daya saing, baik dai segi kualitas maupun harga.</p><p>Kata kunci: Panili, ekspor, Java vanilla, Indonesia, penawaran<br /><br /></p><p><strong>ABSTRACT</strong><br /><br /><strong>Indonesian Vanilla Expots</strong><br /><br />Indonesian vanilla, Java Vanilla Beans, is widely known in intenational market. It is also regarded as high quality vanilla. The main concen for Indonesian expoters is to fulill the continuity of the supply for the quality as demanded. This study aims to analyze: (1) the effects of acreage and yields on supply and production of Indonesian vanilla; (2) the exports of Indonesian vanilla to Germany and the U.S.; (3) the domestic pices and export prices of Indonesian vanilla. This study used secondary data, time series rom 1975 to 2000 both national and intenational data. Econometric analyses using 2SLS was used in this study. The results are as follow: (1) the wages have negative effects on the acreage, in the shot run the acreage does not respond to wage changes; however, in the long run it does respond to wage changes; (2) the domestic prices positively affect on the yields, however, yields do not respond to price changes; (3) the previous expots affect on the current exports to Germany and the U.S., it shows that there is a cetain relationship between Indonesian expoters and German and the U.S. importers; (4) the expot pices weakly transmit to farmer level prices, moreover, intenational prices strongly transmit to the expot prices. It is shown by the absence of the effects of the expot pices on the domestic prices. Meanwhile intenational prices highly affects on the export prices; (5) the efforts to develop vanilla industry in Indonesia are concentrated on increasing quality of Indonesian vanilla, the addition of the acreage should consider the expot demand; (6) <br /><br />competitiveness of Indonesian vanilla should be maintained and improved to sustain and gain the market share.<br /><br />Key words : Vanilla, Java vanilla, Indonesia, expot, supply</p>

Effects of Crude Oil and Gold Prices on US Stock Market: Evidence for USA from ARDL Bounds Testing

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
AKM Matiur Rahman ◽  
Muhammad Mustafa
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Bounds Testing ◽  
Short Run

<p>This paper explores the effects of changes in crude oil and gold prices on US Stock market movement. Daily data are used from the first business day of January, 1986 through December30, 2016. Efficient unit root tests (DF-GLS and Ng-Perron) are applied to examine the time series property of the variables in terms of stationarity or non-stationarity.  ARDL Bounds Testing is applied for co-integration. Both DF-GLS and Ng-Perron tests confirm non-stationarity of each variable and depict I (1) behavior of all the variables in log-levels, included in this study. The ARDL-Bounds testing confirm co-integration among the variables. There is evidence of long-run convergence among all these variables with very tepid adjustment toward the equilibrium. Short-run negative effects of changes in gold and crude oil prices on US stock market returns are observed. The effect is statistically significant from gold price changes, but insignificant from crude oil price changes.</p>

Dampak Insentif Pajak Perumahan Terhadap Potensi Penerimaan Pajak Negara Dan Peningkatan Pendapatan Masyarakat : Kasus Provinsi Papua

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-22
Author(s):  
Towaf Totok Irawan
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Tax Incentives ◽  
High Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Primary Input ◽  
State Revenue ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Until now the government and private sector have not been able to address the backlog of 13.5 million housing units for ownership status and 7.6 million units for residential status. The high price of land has led to the high price of the house so that low-income communities (MBR) is not able to reach out to make a home purchase. In addition to the high price of land, tax factors also contribute to the high price of the house. The government plans to issue a policy for the provision of tax incentives, ie abolish VAT on home-forming material transaction. This policy is expected to house prices become cheaper, so the demand for housing increases, and encourage the relevant sectors to intensify its role in the construction of houses. It is expected to replace the lost tax potential and increase incomes. Analysis of the impact of tax incentives housing to potential state revenue and an increase in people's income, especially in Papua province is using the table IO because in addition to looking at the role each sector can also see the impact on taxes (income tax 21 Pph 25 Pph, VAT), and incomes (wage). Although in the short-term impact is still small, but very rewarding in the long run. Keywords: Backlog, Gross Input, Primary Input, Intermediate Input

The Effects of Oil Prices Changes on Output Growth and Inflation: Evidence from Turkey

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (11) ◽  
pp. 730-739 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pelin ÖGE GÜNEY
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the effects of oil price changes on output and inflation for the case of Turkey using monthly time series data for the period 1990:1–2012:3. Recent studies suggest that oil price changes may have asymmetric effects on the macroeconomic variables. To account for asymmetric effects, we decompose oil price changes into positive and negative parts following Hamilton (1996). Our results show that while oil price increases have clear negative effects on output growth, the impact of oil price decline is insignificant. Similarly, oil price increases have positive and significant effects on inflation. However, oil price declines have not a significant effect on inflation. The Granger causality tests also support these results.

Crude Oil Price and Food Security Related Variables in Malaysia

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 17-21
Author(s):  
Shri Dewi Applanaidu ◽  
Mukhriz Izraf Azman Aziz
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
Crude Oil Prices

Objective - This study analyzes the dynamic relationship between crude oil price and food security related variables (crude palm oil price, exchange rate, food import, food price index, food production index, income per capita and government development expenditure) in Malaysia using a Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model. Methodology/Technique - The data covered the period of 1980-2014. Impulse response functions (IRFs) was applied to examine what will be the results of crude oil price changes to the variables in the model. To explore the impact of variation in crude oil prices on the selected food security related variables forecast error variance decomposition (VDC) was employed. Findings - Findings from IRFs suggest there are positive effects of oil price changes on food import and food price index. The VDC analyses suggest that crude oil price changes have relatively largest impact on real crude palm oil price, food import and food price index. This study would suggest to revisiting the formulation of food price policy by including appropriate weight of crude oil price volatility. In terms of crude oil palm price determination, the volatility of crude oil prices should be taken into account. Overdependence on food imports also needs to be reduced. Novelty - As the largest response of crude oil price volatility on related food security variables food vouchers can be implemented. Food vouchers have advantages compared to direct cash transfers since it can be targeted and can be restricted to certain types of products and group of people. Hence, it can act as a better aid compared cash transfers. Type of Paper - Empirical Keywords: Crude oil price, Food security related variables, IRF, VAR, VDC

Spatial features of a penitentiary unit in the context of stress experienced by Prison Service staff

2021 ◽  
Vol III (III) ◽  
pp. 97-114
Author(s):  
Sławomir Grzesiak ◽  
Jarosław Rychlik ◽  
Agnieszka Nowogrodzka
Keyword(s):  
Physical Space ◽  
Research Problem ◽  
Conservation Of Resources ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Spatial Features ◽  
Functional Aspects ◽  
Service Staff ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Stress Experience ◽  
Prison Community

Prison as the place of work of the Prison Service staff is a specific workplace due to both the nature of the prison community as well as the infrastructural and architectural solutions deployed to protect prison officers. Considering the spatial features of a penitentiary unit and their role in the due performance of Prison Service tasks, it seems quite relevant to seek an answer to the question: How does the physical space of a prison contribute to the stress experienced by prison officers? The issue in question is rooted in M. Mendel’s concept of pedagogy of place, symbolic interactionism and S. Hobfoll’s conservation of resources theory. Inquiry into a research problem of this kind seems reasonable taking into account the infrastructural and spatial aspects of the surroundings that can be potential stress drivers. In April 2021, a group of 58 prison officers were surveyed based on the Stress Perception Questionnaire and the author’s questionnaire. Relationships between the variables have been established through the use of correlation, significant difference test and variance analysis. The results revealed that the essential spatial characteristics of a penitentiary unit associated with the perception of stress by Prison Service staff are those features that relate to the penitentiary unit’s functional aspects covering the specific technical and protective safeguards. These results formed a premise for designating higher-risk staff groups, with regard to which preventive programmes aimed at counteracting the negative effects of stress experience should be considered

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