scholarly journals Persistent growth slowdowns in fast-growing middle-income economies

2017 ◽  
Vol 67 (s1) ◽  
pp. 97-111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Krisztina Sőreg
Keyword(s):  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Growth Dynamics ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Growth Patterns ◽  
Growth Data ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Fast Growing ◽  
Export Structure

From the second half of the 20th century, a set of emerging economies have undergone a remarkable developing path. During the first years of the global financial crisis of 2007–2008, Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) were only slightly affected by its negative impacts. However, after 2013, a considerable growth slowdown period has evolved in these countries with the exception of the Indian economy. In the current study, we examine whether the growth dynamics of the BRICS economies shows significant correlation with the fluctuation of commodity prices, especially in the case of raw materials. Besides applying a cross correlation model on the quarterly commodity price indices and real GDP growth data, the research also focuses on the export structure of the selected fast-growing countries. As a closing element of our paper, a brief analysis is carried out regarding the correlations of growth patterns within the BRICS economies.

scholarly journals Commodity price pass-through along the pricing chain

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez ◽  
Amalia Morales-Zumaquero
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Emerging Countries ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The World ◽  
Producer Prices ◽  
Pass Through

AbstractThis paper analyses the commodity price pass-through along the pricing chain for the global commodity price index and the indices of its main categories (i.e., agricultural raw materials, food and beverages, energy and metals) in the world, advanced and emerging economies. To do so, the study considers country-by-country vector autoregression models and pool the results by taking weighted means for 18 advanced economies and 19 emerging countries, as well as for the world (defined as the sum of advanced and emerging economies). The results show the following: (i) there is evidence in favour of partial pass-through from commodity prices to producer prices, although the evidence for the pass-through to consumer prices is less evident; (ii) the pass-through in the world seems to be led by both advanced and emerging countries for producer prices and only by advanced economies for consumer prices; (iii) higher prices in the four categories (agricultural raw materials only in the short-run) induce significant higher producer prices in almost all cases, with shocks in the prices of energy and metals showing the largest effects; and (iv) energy prices explain the highest variability of producer and consumer prices.

The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on international commodity prices

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 163-184 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaofen Tan ◽  
Yongjiao Ma
Keyword(s):  
Raw Materials ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Precious Metals ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Macroeconomic Uncertainty ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Low Uncertainty

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically analyze the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on a large sample of 19 commodity markets. Design/methodology/approach The authors rely on Jurado et al.’s (2015) measure of macroeconomic uncertainty based on a wide range of monthly macroeconomic and financial indicators and estimate a threshold VAR model to assess whether the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on commodity prices differs under the high- or low-uncertainty state. Findings The findings show that positive macroeconomic uncertainty shocks affect commodity prices returns negatively on average and the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty is generally higher in high-uncertainty states compared with low-uncertainty states. Besides, although the safe-haven role of precious metals is confirmed, energy and industrial markets are more sensitive to short-run and long-run macroeconomic uncertainty, respectively. Research limitations/implications The findings in this study suggest that commodity prices reflect not only the level of economic fundamental but also the volatility of economic fundamental. Originality/value This study empirically analyzes and verifies the influence of macroeconomic uncertainty not only on oil prices but also on four groups of 19 raw materials. As for the methodological issues, the authors rely on a structural threshold vector autoregressive specification for modeling commodity price returns to account for potentially different effects depending on the macroeconomic uncertainty states.

A Barrel of Oil or a Bottle of Wine: How Do Global Growth Dynamics Affect Commodity Prices?

2014 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 34-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Serhan Cevik ◽  
Tahsin Saadi Sedik
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Growth Dynamics ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Incremental Change ◽  
Advanced Economies

AbstractThis paper explores empirically the causes of extreme fluctuations in commodity prices from January 1990 to June 2010 and seeks to identify the relative contribution of advanced and emerging market economies to the changes in commodity prices. Our assumption is that analyzing two very distinct goods—crude oil and fine wine—helps to identify common determinants of commodity prices. We find that the growth rate of global aggregate demand is the key macroeconomic determinant of the fluctuations in both crude oil and fine wine prices over the sample period. While advanced economies account for more than half of global consumption, emerging market and developing economies make up the bulk of the incremental change in demand, thereby having a greater weight in commodity price formation. The coefficient of emerging market industrial output growth is about three times as high as that of advanced economies in oil price regressions and almost five times as powerful in fine wine price regressions. The results also show that the shift in the composition of aggregate commodity demand is a recent phenomenon. (JEL Classifications: Q11, Q39, Q41, Q43)

scholarly journals The Performance of the Agri-food Sector in the Recent Economic Crisis and during Covid-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 168-178
Author(s):  
Tamás Mizik
Keyword(s):  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Meat Products ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
The Other ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Trade Integration ◽  
Food Sector ◽  
Trade Surplus

Crises impact every sector of the economy; however, the magnitude of that impact varies between the different sectors. The agri-food sector-related lessons learned from the last two crises (global financial crisis in 2008, and the sanctions against Russia in 2014) are that international trade becomes lower and commodity prices rise. This article analyzes the performance of the Hungarian agri-food sector during the last three crises based on international and Hungarian datasets. The results show that impacts depend on many factors, such as the type of the agri-food products (raw material vs. processed product, perishable vs. non-perishable goods, etc.) or the depth of trade integration. It should be noted that Hungary is heavily integrated into the EU’s common market, its major trade partners are the other member states. At the commodity level, the share of raw materials is higher on the export side (e.g. cereals) compared to the import side (e.g. meat products). Based on the results, the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic were different from the two previous crises. Despite the difficulties in transport, Hungarian exportation expanded and resulted in an increasing trade surplus, while international commodity prices remained stable. The identification of the different impacts of the coronavirus compared to the other two crises is the major finding of the article. Doi: 10.28991/HIJ-2021-02-03-02 Full Text: PDF

scholarly journals A sinusoidal equation as alternative to conventional growth functions to describe the evolution of growth in quail

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. e0606
Author(s):  
Hassan Darmani-Kuhi ◽  
James France ◽  
Secundino López ◽  
Navid Ghavi Hossein-Zadeh
Keyword(s):  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Growth Curves ◽  
Growth Dynamics ◽  
Information Criteria ◽  
Growth Patterns ◽  
Growth Data ◽  
Suitable Alternative ◽  
Growth Functions ◽  
Age Related

Aim of study: The aim of the present study was to introduce a sinusoidal equation into poultry science by applying it to temporal growth data from quail.Material and methods: To examine the performance of the sinusoidal equation in describing the growth patterns of quail, four conventional growth functions (Gompertz, logistic, López and Richards) were used as reference in this study. Comparison of models was carried out by analysing model behaviour when fitting the curves using nonlinear regression and assessing statistical performance. Maximum log-likelihood estimation, mean squared error, Akaike and Bayesian information criteria were used to evaluate the general goodness-of-fit of each model to the different data profiles.Main results: The selected sinusoidal equation precisely describes the growth dynamics of quail. Comparison of the growth functions in terms of the goodness-of-fit criteria revealed that the sinusoidal equation was one of the most appropriate functions to describe the age-related changes of bodyweight in quail.Research highlights: To the best of our knowledge there are no studies available on the use of sinusoidal equations to describe the evolution of growth in quail. The sinusoidal equation used in this study represents a suitable alternative to conventional growth functions to describe the growth curves for a range of strains/lines of male and female Japanese quail.

The Economics of Commodities and Commodity Markets

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Ielpo
Keyword(s):  
Raw Materials ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Essential Element ◽  
Commodity Markets ◽  
Production Costs ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
Supply Shocks ◽  
The Business Cycle

This chapter covers the economic fundamentals of commodity markets (i.e., what shapes the evolution of the price of raw materials) in three steps. First, it covers the theories explaining why the futures curve can be upward or downward sloping, an essential element for commodity producing companies. The evolution of inventories and hedging pressures are the two dominant sources of explanation. Second, the chapter reviews the fundamentals of commodity spot prices: technologies, supply, demand, and speculation. Production costs draw the long-term evolution of prices, but demand and supply shocks can trigger substantial variations in commodity prices. Third, the chapter presents how commodity prices interact with the business cycle. Commodities are influenced by the world activity but can also have a material impact on it.

Dependence on Extractive Industries in Lower-income Countries

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan Roe ◽  
Samantha Dodd
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Extractive Industries ◽  
Upward Trend ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Current Dependence ◽  
Lower Income Countries ◽  
Development Prospects ◽  
Low And Middle Income

This chapter synthesizes statistical information evidencing the proposition that extractive industries are of great significance in many low- and middle-income developing economies, and so to their development prospects. It examines the scale of the current dependence of low- and middle-income economies on both types of extractive resources: metals, and oil and gas. The chapter also assesses how country levels of dependence have changed in the past twenty years, showing that there has been a clear upward trend based on exports. The chapter outlines how the upward trend has continued in many countries despite the recent commodity price collapse, and assesses some of the consequences of that collapse.

scholarly journals Production of Microfibrillated Cellulose from Fast-Growing Poplar and Olive Tree Pruning by Physical Pretreatment

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (14) ◽  
pp. 6445
Author(s):  
David Ibarra ◽  
Raquel Martín-Sampedro ◽  
Bernd Wicklein ◽  
Úrsula Fillat ◽  
María E. Eugenio
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Olive Tree ◽  
Barrier Properties ◽  
Microfibrillated Cellulose ◽  
Mechanical Resistance ◽  
Fast Growing ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Pfi Refining ◽  
Tree Pruning

Motivated by the negative impact of fossil fuel consumption on the environment, the need arises to produce materials and energy from renewable sources. Cellulose, the main biopolymer on Earth, plays a key role in this context, serving as a platform for the development of biofuels, chemicals and novel materials. Among the latter, micro- and nanocellulose have been receiving increasing attention in the last few years. Their many attractive properties, i.e., thermal stability, high mechanical resistance, barrier properties, lightweight, optical transparency and ease of chemical modification, allow their use in a wide range of applications, such as paper or polymer reinforcement, packaging, construction, membranes, bioplastics, bioengineering, optics and electronics. In view of the increasing demand for traditional wood pulp (e.g., obtained from eucalypt, birch, pine, spruce) for micro/nanocellulose production, dedicated crops and agricultural residues can be interesting as raw materials for this purpose. This work aims at achieving microfibrillated cellulose production from fast-growing poplar and olive tree pruning using physical pretreatment (PFI refining) before the microfibrillation stage. Both raw materials yielded microfibrillated cellulose with similar properties to that obtained from a commercial industrial eucalypt pulp, producing films with high mechanical properties and low wettability. According to these properties, different applications for cellulose microfibers suspensions and films are discussed.

scholarly journals A Reappraisal of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis Using Wavelets Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 319
Author(s):  
Hany Fahmy
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Price Series ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
The Impact

The Prebisch-Singer (PS) hypothesis, which postulates the presence of a downward secular trend in the price of primary commodities relative to manufacturers, remains at the core of a continuing debate among international trade economists. The reason is that the results of testing the PS hypothesis depend on the starting point of the technical analysis, i.e., stationarity, nonlinearity, and the existence of structural breaks. The objective of this paper is to appraise the PS hypothesis in the short- and long-run by employing a novel multiresolution wavelets decomposition to a unique data set of commodity prices. The paper also seeks to assess the impact of the terms of trade (also known as Incoterms) on the test results. The analysis reveals that the PS hypothesis is not supported in the long run for the aggregate commodity price index and for most of the individual commodity price series forming it. Furthermore, in addition to the starting point of the analysis, the results show that the PS test depends on the term of trade classification of commodity prices. These findings are of particular significance to international trade regulators and policymakers of developing economies that depend mainly on primary commodities in their exports.

scholarly journals Using GEDI lidar data and airborne laser scanning to assess height growth dynamics in fast-growing species: a showcase in Spain

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan Guerra-Hernández ◽  
Adrián Pascual
Keyword(s):  
Pinus Radiata ◽  
Pinus Pinaster ◽  
Laser Scanning ◽  
Forest Ecosystems ◽  
Height Growth ◽  
Growth Patterns ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Airborne Laser Scanning ◽  
Fast Growing ◽  
Airborne Laser

Abstract Background The NASA’s Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) satellite mission aims at scanning forest ecosystems on a multi-temporal short-rotation basis. The GEDI data can validate and update statistics from nationwide airborne laser scanning (ALS). We present a case in the Northwest of Spain using GEDI statistics and nationwide ALS surveys to estimate forest dynamics in three fast-growing forest ecosystems comprising 211,346 ha. The objectives were: i) to analyze the potential of GEDI to detect disturbances, ii) to investigate uncertainty source regarding non-positive height increments from the 2015–2017 ALS data to the 2019 GEDI laser shots and iii) to estimate height growth using polygons from the Forest Map of Spain (FMS). A set of 258 National Forest Inventory plots were used to validate the observed height dynamics. Results The spatio-temporal assessment from ALS surveying to GEDI scanning allowed the large-scale detection of harvests. The mean annual height growths were 0.79 (SD = 0.63), 0.60 (SD = 0.42) and 0.94 (SD = 0.75) m for Pinus pinaster, Pinus radiata and Eucalyptus spp., respectively. The median annual values from the ALS-GEDI positive increments were close to NFI-based growth values computed for Pinus pinaster and Pinus radiata, respectively. The effect of edge border, spatial co-registration of GEDI shots and the influence of forest cover in the observed dynamics were important factors to considering when processing ALS data and GEDI shots. Discussion The use of GEDI laser data provides valuable insights for forest industry operations especially when accounting for fast changes. However, errors derived from positioning, ground finder and canopy structure can introduce uncertainty to understand the detected growth patterns as documented in this study. The analysis of forest growth using ALS and GEDI would benefit from the generalization of common rules and data processing schemes as the GEDI mission is increasingly being utilized in the forest remote sensing community.

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