scholarly journals DETERMINAN PERMINTAAN EKSPOR KEPITING/RAJUNGAN OLAHAN INDONESIA KE AMERIKA SERIKAT: PENDEKATAN ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 131
Author(s):  
Estu Sri Luhur ◽  
Asnawi Asnawi ◽  
Freshty Yulia Arthatiani ◽  
Siti Hajar Suryawati
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Export Price ◽  
The United States ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Production Volume ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Domestic Production ◽  
Export Prices

Kepiting/rajungan merupakan salah satu komoditas ekspor perikanan yang terus meningkat permintaannya. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis permintaan ekspor kepiting/rajungan olahan Indonesia ke Amerika Serikat sebagai pasar tujuan utama. Data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder, yaitu data harga ekspor kepiting/rajungan Indonesia ke Amerika Serikat, volume produksi kepiting/rajungan di dalam negeri, dan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat. Data tersebut diperoleh dari UN-Comtrade, Kementerian Kelautan dan Perikanan (KKP), dan Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). Metode analisis data yang digunakan adalah ekonometrika dinamis dengan pendekatan Error Correction Model (ECM). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa variabel yang memiliki pengaruh terhadap permintaan ekspor kepiting/rajungan Indonesia ke Amerika Serikat pada jangka pendek adalah harga ekspor dan volume produksi di dalam negeri dengan nilai koefisien masing-masing sebesar -0.7818 dan 0.5270. Pada jangka panjang, variabel yang berpengaruh adalah harga ekspor kepiting/rajungan Indonesia ke Amerika Serikat dengan nilai koefisien sebesar - 0.7938. Upaya peningkatan volume ekspor kepiting/rajungan Indonesia ke Amerika Serikat dapat dilakukan dengan kebijakan melalui usaha nelayan dan perbaikan mekanisme rantai pasok (foodchains) yang berdampak menurunkan harga ekspor kepiting/rajungan Indonesia ke Amerika Serikat dan perbaikan kualitas produksi kepiting/rajungan di Indonesia. Selain itu, seiring dengan meningkatnya permintaan kepiting/rajungan di Amerika Serikat dapat memberikan peluang bagi Indonesia untuk meningkatkan ekspor kepiting/rajungan ke Amerika Serikat.Title: Determinants of Demand for Indonesian Export of Processed Crabs to the United States: An Error Correction Model ApproachCrab is one of fishery export commodity that has continuing increase in demand. This study aimed to analyze demand for Indonesian processed crab exports to the United States as the main destination market. Data used are secondary data, namely data on export price of Indonesian crabs to the United States, the volume of domestic crab production, and exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar. Data was obtained from UN-Comtrade, Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries (KKP), and Central Statistics Agency (BPS). Data were analyzed using dynamic econometrics method with the Error Correction Model (ECM) approach. Variables of the study are export price of Indonesian crab to the United States, production volume of crab in Indonesia, and exchange rate of rupiah against United States dollar. The results showed that export prices and domestic production volume are variables influencing demand for Indonesian crab exports to the United States in the short term with coefficient value of -0.7818 and 0.5270 respectively. In the long term, the influencing variables is domestic production volume with coefficient value of 0.7938. Export volume to the United States could be increased through policy on fishing effort and supply chain mechanism improvement that resulted in the decrease of export prices and improved quality of the crabs. In addition, the increasing number of crab demand in the United States provides opportunities for Indonesia to increase crab exports to the United States.

scholarly journals A Comparative Analysis of Exchange Rate Pass-Through in China, Eurozone and the U.S.: A Vector Error Correction Model

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Sheng Xu ◽  
Hailun Zhang ◽  
Said Atri
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
The United States ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The U.S

This study examines the pass-through effect of fluctuations in the exchange rate on inflation in China in comparison with similar effects in the Eurozone and the United States. Using a set of monthly data covering the period 1999 through 2015 for each case, we constructed a Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model as well as an Error Correction model (VECM) to estimate the pass-through effects in the three cases. In addition, to ensure that our results are statistically unbiased we also tested the stationarity of the variables of the model. Moreover, to distinguish between the short-run and long-run pass-through effects, we made use of a series of co-integration tests. Our results indicate that the pass-through effect of changes in the exchange rate in China is much weaker than it is in the Eurozone and the United States. We found this effect in the U.S. to be both more notable and longer-lasting.

scholarly journals Cointegration Analysis and Forecasting of the Export Function of Bangladesh Using the Error Correction Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
K M Saemon Islam ◽  
Gautam Kumar Biswas
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
The United States ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract In this paper, we examined the relationship between the growth of the Gross Domestic Product of the United States, the export value index, and the export of Bangladesh over 37 years between 1980 and 2016. The results of our preliminary tests showed that there was indeed a long-run relationship between these variables. Based on our preliminary analysis, we employed an error-correction model to identify the relationship between the variables. The error-correction term with the expected negative sign was statistically significant, and it confirmed that in the case of disequilibrium, the convergence towards the equilibrium happened in the subsequent periods. Additionally, the econometric estimates exhibited that the two-period lagged values of the growth in export of Bangladesh and the growth of the Gross Domestic Product of the United States were also statistically significant.JEL Classification: C22, C5, F41

scholarly journals On the Determinants of Unemployment Rate in Nigeria: Evidence from Fully Modified OLS and Error Correction Model

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monday Osagie Adenomon ◽  
N. A. Okoro-Ugochukwu ◽  
C. A. Adenomon
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Determinants Of Unemployment

This study employed the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and the Error Correction Model (ECM) to investigate the long-run and short-run determinants of unemployment rate in Nigeria. To achieve this annual data on unemployment rate, inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate and population growth from 1981 to 2016 was collected from Central Bank Statistical Bulletins and the World Bank website. The ADF test revealed that the macroeconomic variables are stationary at first difference while the Cointegration test revealed that the variables are cointegrated. Using unemployment rate as dependent variable, the FMOLS model revealed that exchange rate and population growth are positively significantly related to unemployment rate, interest rate and inflation rate were negatively related to unemployment rate but only interest rate was significant. The short run relationship revealed that the coefficient of the ecm(-1) is negative and statistically significant at 5% level indicating that the system corrects its previous period disequilibrium at the speed of 48.93% yearly. This study concludes that high exchange rate and population growth can lead to increase in unemployment rate in Nigeria while the government should develop the industrial sector and non-oil sector in order to generate employment and boost export in Nigeria.

scholarly journals The dynamic effect of exchange-rate volatility on Turkish exports: Parsimonious error-correction model approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 62 (4) ◽  
pp. 429-451 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erdal Demirhan ◽  
Banu Demirhan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Dynamic Effect ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Export Volume ◽  
Short Run

This paper aims to investigate the effect of exchange-rate stability on real export volume in Turkey, using monthly data for the period February 2001 to January 2010. The Johansen multivariate cointegration method and the parsimonious error-correction model are applied to determine long-run and short-run relationships between real export volume and its determinants. In this study, the conditional variance of the GARCH (1, 1) model is taken as a proxy for exchange-rate stability, and generalized impulse-response functions and variance-decomposition analyses are applied to analyze the dynamic effects of variables on real export volume. The empirical findings suggest that exchangerate stability has a significant positive effect on real export volume, both in the short and the long run.

scholarly journals The Impact of Bank Indonesia Regulation No. 17/3/2015 on Exchange Rate: Analysis Using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 131-141
Author(s):  
Muhamad Yudi Setiawan ◽  
Tanti Novianti ◽  
Mukhamad Najib
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

The weakening of the Rupiah against the US dollar has encouraged Bank Indonesia to issued Bank Indonesia Regulation (Peraturan Bank Indonesia - PBI) No. 17/3/2015. The research aimed to analyze the factors that affected the Rupiah exchange rate, the effect of PBI No. 17/3/2015 on the movement of the Rupiah exchange rate, and the behavior of exchange rate movement to the shocks on the variables that influenced it. The research applied secondary data, namely monthly data from January 2008 to April 2019 taken from reliable sources such as National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas), Bank Indonesia (BI), and Statistics Indonesia (BPS). It was explanatory research with a quantitative approach. The studied data were processed with the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method to identify long and short-term effects. The results of the long-term equation show that export-import has a negative effect on the exchange rate. Similarly, inflation has no significant effect on the exchange rate. Then, the money supply has a significantly negative effect on the exchange rate. However, the interest rate of Bank Indonesia positively affects the exchange rate. Next, the implementation of PBI No. 17/3/2015 has a significant and positive impact on the exchange rate. Last, the crisis condition does not affect the changes in exchange rates.

scholarly journals PEMBAYARAN PINJAMAN LUAR NEGERI KORPORASI DAN PERGERAKAN RUPIAH

2007 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 31-72
Author(s):  
Iwan Setiawan ◽  
Diah Indira ◽  
Angsoka Yorintha Paundralingga
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Correction Model

The shifting of the exchange rate regime toward the free floating system in Indonesia, have changed the nature of the Indonesian Rupiah fluctuation, both in its magnitude and direction. Public opinion tends to believe that the high corporate demand on foreign exchange to fulfill their foreign debt repayment is one of the major depreciating factors of the Rupiah against the US dollar.This paper analyzes the response of public opinion by analyzing the effect of corporate foreign debt repayments and their general behavior on the foreign exchange demand and supply. This paper also analyzes the impact of the non-oil and gas imports, the international oil price, the interest rate differential, and the country risk.Based on the survey of selected highly leverage corporates in Indonesia, the result shows a unique dependency of the corporate»s foreign exchange demand and supply on the corporate»s earning characteristics and its business sector orientation. The fact that corporations are virtually in the position of excess demand for foreign exchange have prompted persistent pressure on the Rupiah. Furthermore, using the Johansen Cointegration Test and the Error Correction Model verifies that the corporate foreign debt service merely affects the Rupiah exchange rate in the long-run. In the short-run, the movement of Rupiah is highly affected by other factors such us the global oil price, interest rate differentials, and country risks.Keyword: Debt Service, exchange rate, cointegration, Error Correction Model, Indonesia.JEL Classification:  JEL Classification: F31, F34, H63

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