scholarly journals Fiscal consolidation in developed and emerging economies

Nova Economia ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 25 (spe) ◽  
pp. 835-861
Author(s):  
Paulo André Camuri ◽  
Frederico G. Jayme Jr. ◽  
Ana Maria Hermeto
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Standard Errors ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Transition Path ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Fiscal Space ◽  
Main Determinants

Abstract: The debate regarding fiscal policy has given support to the formulation of an economic policy based on control of indebtedness and in persecution of public savings, acting as important support for the economic growth. This paper presents evidence that counter acts this theory of expansionary austerity. A set of panel data regressions is estimated - through Driscoll & Kraay’s, FGLS, panel corrected standard errors, and SUR estimators and the causality test approach proposed by Kónya (2006) - in search of robust inference related to the main determinants that encompasses the fiscal framework. Our conclusion is that the empirical evidence - using a set of 20 developed economies and other of 24 emerging economies - suggests that identical economic policies for different countries might conduce to results that are opposite to the desired outcome. Notwithstanding the adverse effects associated to explosive debt path, the search for “fiscal space” should be determined essentially by a pro-growth agenda. This is particularly important for the emerging economies facing the transition path challenges.

From universalism to individualism: New approaches to economic growth analysis

2019 ◽  
pp. 108-126
Author(s):  
Ivan L. Lyubimov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Structural Transformation ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Growth Analysis ◽  
Extended Period ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Adequate Account ◽  
New Approaches ◽  
Catching Up

This paper examines the evolution of academic and applied approaches to analyze the problem of economic growth since the mid-XX century. For quite an extended period of time, these views were corresponding to universalist economic policies taking no adequate account of particularities and limitations that a certain catching-up economy embodied. New approaches analyzing the problems of economic growth, on the contrary, individualize growth diagnostics, structural transformation and the organization of reforms processes for the emerging economies. We argue that individualist approaches might be potentially more effective than the universalist ones for solving the problem of slow economic growth.

Effect of economic growth, trade openness, urbanization, and technology on environment of Asian emerging economies

2018 ◽  
Vol 29 (6) ◽  
pp. 1123-1134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kashif Munir ◽  
Ayesha Ameer
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
Stirpat Model ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the long-run as well as short-run effect of economic growth, trade openness, urbanization and technology on environmental degradation (sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions) in Asian emerging economies. Design/methodology/approach The study utilizes the augmented STIRPAT model and uses the panel cointegration and causality test to analyze the long-run and short-run relationships. Due to the unavailability of data for all Asian emerging economies, the study focuses on 11 countries, i.e. Bangladesh, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka and Thailand, and uses balance panel from 1980 to 2014 at annual frequency. Findings Results showed that the inverted U-shape hypothesis of the environmental Kuznets curve holds between economic growth and SO2 emissions. While technology and trade openness increases SO2 emissions, urbanization reduces SO2 emissions in Asian emerging economies in the long run. Unidirectional causality flows from urbanization to SO2 emissions and from SO2 emissions to economic growth in the short run. Practical implications Research and development centers and programs are required at the government and private levels to control pollution through new technologies as well as to encourage the use of disposed-off waste as a source of energy which results in lower dependency on fossil fuels and leads to reduce emissions. Originality/value This study contributes to the existing literature by analyzing the effects of urbanization, economic growth, technology and trade openness on environmental pollution (measured by SO2 emissions) in Asian emerging economies. This study provides the essential evidence, information and better understanding to key stakeholders of environment. The findings of this study are useful for individuals, corporate bodies, environmentalist, researchers and government agencies at large.

scholarly journals The Impact of FDI on Economic Growth in Case of Romania

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 81
Author(s):  
Alina Mihaela Ciobanu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Main Determinants ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Determinants Of Economic Growth

Foreign direct investment flows had increased worldwide over the last decades and many specialists think that there is a strong correlation among trade, FDI, labor force, and economic growth in the receiving countries. Based on available statistical data, we will examine the effects of FDI on GDP growth and the causality relations between GDP, trade openness, labor force, and FDI in case of Romania for the last decades. The ARDL bound testing approach is used to study the existence of a long-run relationship between FDI, trade, labor, and economic growth. Then the error-correction based Granger causality test is used to test the direction of causality between the variables. The results revealed that there is cointegration among the variables when real GDP and foreign direct investment are the dependent variables. Foreign direct investment, trade openness, and labor force are the main determinants of economic growth in the long run in Romania. In addition, the increase of gross domestic product, exports, imports and labor force promote foreign direct investment in the long run.

scholarly journals Econometric estimation of the relationship between the unemployment rate and economic growth in Limpopo Province, South Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 58 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tshephi Kingsley Thaba ◽  
Abenet Belete ◽  
Johannes Jan Hlongwane ◽  
Lesetja Jacob Ledwaba
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Limpopo Province ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Difference Model ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract. The study aims to estimate empirically the relationship between economic growth and unemployment rate in Limpopo Province of South Africa. The analysis used quarterly data covering the period 2008-2018 which was obtained from Statistics South Africa. The study employed, difference model, dynamic model, and granger causality test for data analysis, in order to consider both, short term and long term possible relationship Based on the difference model estimation of the coefficient was done and the coefficient was found to be -0.22. From Granger causality test, causal relationship between these two variables doesn’t exist meaning that change in the growth rate of real GDP doesn’t cause change in the rate of unemployment and vice-versa. Inapplicable of the law indicates that a cyclical recovery will not be accompanied by reduction of unemployment. Furthermore, this might reflect the sizable structural and/or frictional component of unemployment in Limpopo Province. Lastly, the country's economic policies have not been suitable for fostering development that can reduce unemployment and this could be due to lack of appropriate composition of public sector and private sector.

The Relevance of Science in Development

2014 ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Klaus Jaffe
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
National Income ◽  
Scientific Productivity ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Wealth Of Nations ◽  
Relative Productivity

Scientific knowledge and technical expertise promote the wealth of nations. The traditional view is that science allows the expansion of technology, which, in turn, promotes economic development. This chapter shows that: 1) the scientific productivity of a country correlates more strongly with gross national income per capita than its technological sophistication; 2) science is important for economic growth among developed economies, whereas technical complexity is more important for the economic development of poorer countries; 3) scientific productivity of countries correlates more strongly with present and future wealth than indices reflecting its financial, social, economic, or technological sophistication; and 4) middle-income countries with higher relative productivity in basic sciences such as physics and chemistry have the highest economic growth in the following five years compared to countries with a higher relative productivity in applied sciences. No simple direct causal relationship between scientific productivity and economic growth could be detected. The results are best explained by assuming that science favors economic development by providing society with a more rational atmosphere, allowing the implementation of sound policies and institutions, and/or that rational societies with successful economic policies are also the ones giving priority to basic natural sciences.

scholarly journals The Impact of Economic Growth on Unemployment Case study:  The King of Saudi Arabia during the period 1980- 2018: أثر النمو الاقتصادي على البطالة- دراسة حالة المملكة العربية السعودية خلال الفترة: 1980- 2018م

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abbas Fouad Abbas Hasan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Primary Source ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Kingdom Of Saudi Arabia ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Impact

The study seeks to analyze and measure the relationship between rates of unemployment and economic growth in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia during the period 1980- 2018 and stand on the economic measures by the authorities to address the negative effects of high unemployment rates using the correlation matrix, Granger causality test, the methodology of the Co- integration test, error correction model and Okun model. The study found that there is strong relationship between economic growth and the unemployment rate in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia during the study period.  The study depends on the data from the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA)، the World Bank and other resources. One of the most important hypotheses of the study there is statistically significant relationship between economic growth and unemployment. The study recommended several recommendations one of them is: develop new economic policies to reduce dependence on oil as a primary source of revenue reducing inflation and working to increase investments, which leads to an increase in the size of the labor market. 

The Challenge of Public Pension Reform in Advanced and Emerging Economies

Policy Papers ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (101) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
Public Pension ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Payroll Taxes ◽  
Pension Reforms ◽  
The Impact

This paper reviews past trends in public pension spending and provides projections for 27 advanced and 25 emerging economies over 2011–2050. In constructing these projections, the paper incorporates the impact of recent pension reforms and highlights the key assumptions underlying these projections and associated risks. The paper also presents reform options to address future pension spending pressures in the advanced and emerging economies. These reforms—mainly increasing retirement ages, reducing replacement rates, or increasing payroll taxes—are discussed in the context of their role in fiscal consolidation, and their implications for both equity and economic growth. In addition, the paper examines the challenge of emerging economies of expanding coverage in a fiscally sustainable manner

scholarly journals The dynamic relationship between economic policy uncertainty and substantial economic growth in China

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Junchao Li ◽  
Shan Huang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Different Types ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeUnder the background of the overall increase of China's economic policy uncertainty and the urgent need for the transformation and upgrading of the substantial economy, this paper studies the time-varying causality between China's economic policy uncertainty and the growth of the substantial economy through bootstrap rolling window causality test, further refines economic policies and studies the causal differences between different types of economic policies and substantial economic growth, refining the conclusions of previous studies.Design/methodology/approachThis paper first studies the causal relationship between China's economic policy uncertainty and substantial economic growth in the full sample period through bootstrap Granger causality test. Then, the paper tests the short-term and long-term stability of the parameters of the VAR model, and it is found that the model parameters are unstable in both the short and long term, so the results of the Granger causality test of the full sample are not credible. Finally, we conduct a dynamic test of the causal relationship between China's economic policy uncertainty and substantial economic growth by means of rolling window, so as to comprehensively analyze the dynamic characteristics and sudden changes of the relationship between them.FindingsThe research shows that economic policy uncertainty in China has a significant inhibiting effect on the growth of substantial economy. Growth in the substantial economy will drive up economic policy uncertainty before 2016 and restrain it after that. In addition, this paper further subdivides economic policy uncertainty to explore the causal differences between different types of economic policy uncertainty and substantial economic growth. The test results show that the relationship between them has obvious policy heterogeneity. The fiscal policy uncertainty and the monetary policy uncertainty, as the main policy means in China, has a significant impact on the growth rate of substantial economy in multiple ranges, but the effect time is short. Although trade policy uncertainty has a significant impact on the growth rate of substantial economy only during the financial crisis, the effect lasts for a long time. The impact of exchange rate and capital account policy uncertainty on the growth rate of substantial economy is mainly reflected after 2020.Originality/valueThe values of this paper are as follows: First, the economic policy uncertainty is combined with the growth of substantial economy, which makes up the gap of previous studies. Second, the economic policy uncertainty is further subdivided. The paper explores the causal differences between different types of economic policy uncertainties and the growth of substantial economy, so as to make the research more detailed. Finally, different from the previous static analysis, this paper uses dynamic model to examine the relationship between China's economic policy uncertainty and the growth of substantial economy from a dynamic perspective, with richer research conclusions.

Anti-crisis measures or structural reforms: Russia’s economic policy in 2015

2016 ◽  
pp. 5-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Mau
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Structural Transformation ◽  
Growth Model ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Social Issues ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
New Models

The paper deals with 2015 trends and challenges for social and economic policy in the nearest future. The analysis of global crisis includes: uneven developments in the leading advanced and emerging economies; new models of economic growth which look differently in different countries; prospects of globalization and challenges of ‘regional globalization’; currency configurations of the future; energy prices dynamics and its influence on political and economic prospects of particular states. Current challenges are discussed in the context of previous 30 years. Among the main topics on Russia, there are approaches to a new growth model, structural transformation (including import substitution issues), economic dynamics, budget and monetary outlines, social issues. The priorities of economic policy are also considered.

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