Assessment of climate change impacts on water resources of the Purus Basin in the southwestern Amazon

ABSTRACT Knowledge about water resources is critical for climate adaptation in face of long-term changes and more frequent extreme events occurrence. During the major droughts of 2005 and 2010, a large epicenter was located in the southwestern Amazon over the Purus River Basin. In this sense, we conducted a hydrological simulation in this basin to assess the climate change impacts on its water resources throughout the 21st century. The water balance was simulated using the Distributed Hydrological Model (MHD-INPE). The future climate projections were simulated by the regional ETA-INPE model driven by a 4-member HadCM3 global model regarding the A1B-AR4/IPCC scenario of greenhouse gases emissions. As simulated by the ETA-INPE/HadCM3, the 4-members mean response for the A1B scenario represents a rainfall reduction of up to 11.1%, a temperature increase of up to 4.4 °C, and a wind speed increase of up to 8.4% in the Purus Basin by the end of 21st century. Under these conditions, the discharge projections represent an overall 27% decrease in the Purus Basin with different patterns between dry and wet season, as well as changes in seasonality trends. The consequences of projected climate change are severe and will probably have a great impact upon natural ecosystem maintenance and human subsistence. In a climate change adaptation process, the preservation of the natural forest cover of the Purus Basin may have great importance in water retention.

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Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-22-1593-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 22 (2) ◽

pp. 1593-1614 ◽

Cited By ~ 21

Author(s):

Florian Hanzer ◽

Kristian Förster ◽

Johanna Nemec ◽

Ulrich Strasser

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

21St Century ◽

Snow Water Equivalent ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Early 21St Century ◽

Physically Based ◽

Snow Water ◽

High Elevations

Abstract. A physically based hydroclimatological model (AMUNDSEN) is used to assess future climate change impacts on the cryosphere and hydrology of the Ötztal Alps (Austria) until 2100. The model is run in 100 m spatial and 3 h temporal resolution using in total 31 downscaled, bias-corrected, and temporally disaggregated EURO-CORDEX climate projections for the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios as forcing data, making this – to date – the most detailed study for this region in terms of process representation and range of considered climate projections. Changes in snow coverage, glacierization, and hydrological regimes are discussed both for a larger area encompassing the Ötztal Alps (1850 km2, 862–3770 m a.s.l.) as well as for seven catchments in the area with varying size (11–165 km2) and glacierization (24–77 %). Results show generally declining snow amounts with moderate decreases (0–20 % depending on the emission scenario) of mean annual snow water equivalent in high elevations (> 2500 m a.s.l.) until the end of the century. The largest decreases, amounting to up to 25–80 %, are projected to occur in elevations below 1500 m a.s.l. Glaciers in the region will continue to retreat strongly, leaving only 4–20 % of the initial (as of 2006) ice volume left by 2100. Total and summer (JJA) runoff will change little during the early 21st century (2011–2040) with simulated decreases (compared to 1997–2006) of up to 11 % (total) and 13 % (summer) depending on catchment and scenario, whereas runoff volumes decrease by up to 39 % (total) and 47 % (summer) towards the end of the century (2071–2100), accompanied by a shift in peak flows from July towards June.

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Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach

10.5194/hess-2017-309 ◽

2017 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Florian Hanzer ◽

Kristian Förster ◽

Johanna Nemec ◽

Ulrich Strasser

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

21St Century ◽

Snow Water Equivalent ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Early 21St Century ◽

Physically Based ◽

Snow Water ◽

High Elevations

Abstract. A physically based hydroclimatological model (AMUNDSEN) is used to assess future climate change impacts on the cryosphere and hydrology of the Ötztal Alps (Austria) until 2100. The model is run in 100 m spatial and 3 h temporal resolution using in total 31 downscaled, bias-corrected, and temporally disaggregated EURO-CORDEX climate projections for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios as forcing data. Changes in snow coverage, glacierization, and hydrological regimes are discussed both for a larger area encompassing the Ötztal Alps (1850 km2, 862–3770 m a.s.l.) as well as for seven catchments in the area with varying size (11–16 km2) and glacierization (24–77 %). Results show generally declining snow amounts with moderate decreases (0–20 % depending on the emission scenario) of mean annual snow water equivalent in high elevations (> 2500 m a.s.l.) until the end of the century, however decreases of 25–80 % in elevations below 1500 m a.s.l. Glaciers in the region will continue to retreat strongly, leaving only 4–20 % of the initial (as of 2006) ice volume left by 2100. Total and summer (JJA) runoff will change little during the early 21st century (2011–2040) with simulated decreases (compared to 1997–2006) of up to 11 % (total) and 13 % (summer) depending on catchment and scenario, whereas runoff volumes decrease by up to 39 % (total) and 47 % (summer) towards the end of the century (2071–2100), accompanied by a shift in peak flows from July towards June.

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Simulating Climate Change Impacts on Surface Water Resources Within a Lake‐Affected Region Using Regional Climate Projections

Water Resources Research ◽

10.1029/2018wr024381 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 55 (1) ◽

pp. 130-155 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

Andre R. Erler ◽

Steven K. Frey ◽

Omar Khader ◽

Marc d'Orgeville ◽

Young‐Jin Park ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Surface Water ◽

Water Resources ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Surface Water Resources ◽

Regional Climate Projections

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Climate change impacts on snow water availability in the Euphrates-Tigris basin

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-15-2789-2011 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 15 (9) ◽

pp. 2789-2803 ◽

Cited By ~ 18

Author(s):

M. Özdoğan

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Snow Cover ◽

21St Century ◽

Water Availability ◽

Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Hydrologic Model ◽

Macro Scale ◽

Snow Water

Abstract. This study investigates the effects of projected climate change on snow water availability in the Euphrates-Tigris basin using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macro scale hydrologic model and a set of regional climate-change outputs from 13 global circulation models (GCMs) forced with two greenhouse gas emission scenarios for two time periods in the 21st century (2050 and 2090). The hydrologic model produces a reasonable simulation of seasonal and spatial variation in snow cover and associated snow water equivalent (SWE) in the mountainous areas of the basin, although its performance is poorer at marginal snow cover sites. While there is great variation across GCM outputs influencing snow water availability, the majority of models and scenarios suggest a significant decline (between 10 and 60 percent) in available snow water, particularly under the high-impact A2 climate change scenario and later in the 21st century. The changes in SWE are more stable when multi-model ensemble GCM outputs are used to minimize inter-model variability, suggesting a consistent and significant decrease in snow-covered areas and associated water availability in the headwaters of the Euphrates-Tigris basin. Detailed analysis of future climatic conditions point to the combined effects of reduced precipitation and increased temperatures as primary drivers of reduced snowpack. Results also indicate a more rapid decline in snow cover in the lower elevation zones than the higher areas in a changing climate but these findings also contain a larger uncertainty. The simulated changes in snow water availability have important implications for the future of water resources and associated hydropower generation and land-use management and planning in a region already ripe for interstate water conflict. While the changes in the frequency and intensity of snow-bearing circulation systems or the interannual variability related to climate were not considered, the simulated changes in snow water availability presented here are likely to be indicative of climate change impacts on the water resources of the Euphrates-Tigris basin.

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Climate change impacts on snow water availability in the Euphrates-Tigris basin

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/hessd-8-3631-2011 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 8 (2) ◽

pp. 3631-3666 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

M. Özdoğan

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Snow Cover ◽

21St Century ◽

Water Availability ◽

Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Hydrologic Model ◽

Macro Scale ◽

Snow Water

Abstract. This study investigates the effects of projected climate change on snow water availability in the Euphrates-Tigris basin using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macro scale hydrologic model and a set of regional climate-change outputs from 13 global circulation models (GCMs) forced with two greenhouse gas emission scenarios for two time periods in the 21st century (2050 and 2090). The hydrologic model produces a reasonable simulation of seasonal and spatial variation in snow cover and associated snow water equivalent (SWE) in the mountainous areas of the basin, although its performance is poorer at marginal snow cover sites. While there is great variation across GCM outputs influencing snow water availability, the majority of models and scenarios suggest a significant decline (between 10 and 60 percent) in available snow water, particularly under the aggressive A2 climate change scenario and later in the 21st century. The changes in SWE are more stable when multi-model ensemble GCM outputs are used to minimize inter-model variability, suggesting a consistent and significant decrease in snow-covered areas and associated water availability in the headwaters of the Euphrates Tigris basin. Detailed analysis of future climatic conditions point to the combined effects of reduced precipitation and increased temperatures as primary drivers of reduced snowpack. Results also indicate a more rapid decline in snow cover in the lower elevation zones than the higher areas in a changing climate. The simulated changes in snow water availability have important implications for the future of water resources and associated hydropower generation and land-use management and planning in a region already ripe for interstate water conflict. While the changes in the frequency and intensity of snow-bearing circulation systems or the interannual variability related to climate were not considered, the simulated changes in snow water availability presented here are likely to be indicative of climate change impacts on the water resources of the Euphrates-Tigris basin.

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A regional approach to climate adaptation in the Nile Basin

Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences ◽

10.5194/piahs-374-3-2016 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 374 ◽

pp. 3-7 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Michael B. Butts ◽

Carlo Buontempo ◽

Jens K. Lørup ◽

Karina Williams ◽

Camilla Mathison ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Adaptation ◽

Regional Scale ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Nile Basin ◽

Adaptation Measures ◽

Considerable Uncertainty ◽

Need To Evaluate

Abstract. The Nile Basin is one of the most important shared basins in Africa. Managing and developing the water resources within the basin must not only address different water uses but also the trade-off between developments upstream and water use downstream, often between different countries. Furthermore, decision-makers in the region need to evaluate and implement climate adaptation measures. Previous work has shown that the Nile flows can be highly sensitive to climate change and that there is considerable uncertainty in climate projections in the region with no clear consensus as to the direction of change. Modelling current and future changes in river runoff must address a number of challenges; including the large size of the basin, the relative scarcity of data, and the corresponding dramatic variety of climatic conditions and diversity in hydrological characteristics. In this paper, we present a methodology, to support climate adaptation on a regional scale, for assessing climate change impacts and adaptation potential for floods, droughts and water scarcity within the basin.

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Climate change variability assessment on water resources by SWAT model: A Review

WEENTECH Proceedings in Energy ◽

10.32438/wpe.23021 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 246-268

Author(s):

Amit Raj ◽

M.Siva Kumar ◽

Satish Kumar ◽

H.P. Singh

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

21St Century ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Swat Model ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Renewable Resource ◽

Base Flow ◽

Weather Data ◽

Geographical Regions

Water is a renewable resource for the Sustaining Ecosystem. Rapid industrialization and population impacts the climate. The imbalance of Climate changes over various geographical regions affects the hydrological and morphological behaviour of water resources. The Water balances of the system are analysed via the SWAT Model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). By simulating and predicting future hydrological behaviour with different scenarios using many climatological models. Using weather data and predicting future hydrological outputs such as Runoff, Temperature, Base flow, groundwater flow, AET etc. in 21st century. Model is calibrated and validated using statistical methods. Results of various modelling Researches in field of SWAT and their major findings are discussed in this review paper. The future Scope of SWAT modelling and its Applications are also recommended. Forty papers are discussed in tabular form with their results and their future improvements were concluded. This paper fulfills a need for precise and quick reviews of recent researches in field of SWAT modelling with climate change on water resources. This will help researchers, academician’s insights into precise climate change impacts on water resources in 21st Century. Necessary steps to be adopted for their successful extreme repercussions of climate change and measures adopted for managing the severe damages to our Ecosystem with sustainable development goals in new millennium are discussed.

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Assessment of the climate change impacts on the water resources of the Luni region, India

Global NEST Journal ◽

10.30955/gnj.001370 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 17 (1) ◽

pp. 29-40 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Change Scenario ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Strong Impact ◽

Moisture Deficit ◽

Hydro Climatology ◽

The Impact

<div> Climate change is expected to have a strong impact on water resources at the local, regional and global scales. In this study, the impact of climate change on the hydro-climatology of the Luni region, India, is investigated by comparing statistics of current and projected future fluxes resulting from three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). The use of different scenarios allows for the estimation of uncertainty of future impacts. The projections are based on the CORDEX-South Asia framework and are bias-corrected using the DBS method before being entered into the HYPE (HYdrological Predictions for the Environment) hydrological model to generate predictions of runoff, evapotranspiration, soil moisture deficit, and applied irrigation water to soil. Overall, the high uncertainty in the climate projections is propagated in the impact model, and as a result the spatiotemporal distribution of change is subject to the climate change scenario. In general, for all scenarios, results show a -20 to +20% change in the long-term average precipitation and evapotranspiration, whereas more pronounced impacts are expected for runoff (-40 to +40% change). Climate change can also affect other hydro-climatic components, however, at a lower impact. Finally, the flow dynamics in the Luni River are substantially affected in terms of shape and magnitude. </div>

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Climate change impacts on irrigation water resource in Switzerland

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14990 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Zoe Linder ◽

Annelie Holzkämper ◽

Massimiliano Zappa

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Irrigation Water ◽

Water Scarcity ◽

Agricultural Practices ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Irrigation Water Demand ◽

Irrigation Potential ◽

Efficient Water Use

According to climate projections, rainfall rates and summer discharge from snow and glacier melt in Switzerland are expected to decrease by the end of the 21st century. This may lead to limited water availability for irrigation in agriculture in the future and high irrigation water demand especially during the summer months, which consequently enhances the problem of water scarcity for agriculture.These predicted changes make the identification of timescales, frequencies, and geographical pattern of water scarcity a fundamental concern for future agricultural practices. Therefore, the main aim of this work is to investigate climate change impacts on water resources and the consequences on irrigation water supply in Switzerland. By creating maps of the geographic distribution of natural water resources available according to climate projections until the end of the 21st century using ArcGIS, the severity of water scarcity is quantified, while regional differences and the most affected areas can be revealed.The expected outcomes are increasing days of water scarcity per year over the course of the 21st century, while those regions furthest away from melt water sources and lakes will be most affected. This in turn might lead to restricted irrigation potential, making more efficient water use indispensable in Switzerland, while creating general shifts to more water-resistant crops in Swiss agricultural practices.

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Understanding institutional barriers in the climate change adaptation planning process of the city of Beirut: vicious cycles and opportunities

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change ◽

10.1007/s11027-021-09961-6 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 26 (6) ◽

Author(s):

Leonardo Zea-Reyes ◽

Veronica Olivotto ◽

Sylvia I. Bergh

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Adaptation ◽

Planning Process ◽

Climate Adaptation ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Data Bank ◽

Institutional Barriers ◽

Political Interference ◽

Poor Individual ◽

Competing Priorities

AbstractCities around the world are confronted with the need to put in place climate adaptation policies to protect citizens and properties from climate change impacts. This article applies components of the framework developed by Moser and Ekström (2010) onto empirical qualitative data to diagnose institutional barriers to climate change adaptation in the Municipality of Beirut, Lebanon. Our approach reveals the presence of two vicious cycles influencing each other. In the first cycle, the root cause barrier is major political interference generating competing priorities and poor individual interest in climate change. A second vicious cycle is derived from feedbacks caused by the first and leading to the absence of a dedicated department where sector specific climate risk information is gathered and shared with other departments, limited knowledge and scientific understanding, as well as a distorted framing or vision, where climate change is considered unrelated to other issues and is to be dealt with at higher levels of government. The article also highlights the need to analyze interlinkages between barriers in order to suggest how to overcome them. The most common way to overcome barriers according to interviewees is through national and international support followed by the creation of a data bank. These opportunities could be explored by national and international policy-makers to break the deadlock in Beirut.

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