scholarly journals Model for soybean production forecast based on prevailing physical conditions

2017 ◽  
Vol 52 (2) ◽  
pp. 95-103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anibal Gusso ◽  
Damien Arvor ◽  
Jorge Ricardo Ducati

Abstract: The objective of this work was to evaluate the reliability of the physiological meaning of the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) data for the development of a remote sensing-based procedure to estimate soybean production prior to crop harvest. Time-series data from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (Modis) were applied to investigate the relationship between local yield fluctuations of soybean and the prevailing physically-driven conditions in the state of Mato Grosso, located in the south of the Brazilian Amazon. The developed methodology was based on the coupled model (CM). The CM provides production estimates for early January, using images from the maximum crop development period. Production estimates were validated at three different spatial scales: state, municipality, and local. At the state and municipality levels, the results obtained from the CM were compared with official agricultural statistics from Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística and Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento, from 2001 to 2011. The coefficients of determination ranged from 0.91 to 0.98, with overall result of R2=0.96 (p≤0.01), indicating that the model adheres to official statistics. At the local level, spatially distributed data were compared with production data from 422 crop fields. The coefficient of determination (R2=0.87) confirmed the reliability of the EVI for its applicability on remote sensing-based models for soybean production forecast.

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 2088
Author(s):  
Carlos Quemada ◽  
José M. Pérez-Escudero ◽  
Ramón Gonzalo ◽  
Iñigo Ederra ◽  
Luis G. Santesteban ◽  
...  

This paper reviews the different remote sensing techniques found in the literature to monitor plant water status, allowing farmers to control the irrigation management and to avoid unnecessary periods of water shortage and a needless waste of valuable water. The scope of this paper covers a broad range of 77 references published between the years 1981 and 2021 and collected from different search web sites, especially Scopus. Among them, 74 references are research papers and the remaining three are review papers. The different collected approaches have been categorized according to the part of the plant subjected to measurement, that is, soil (12.2%), canopy (33.8%), leaves (35.1%) or trunk (18.9%). In addition to a brief summary of each study, the main monitoring technologies have been analyzed in this review. Concerning the presentation of the data, different results have been obtained. According to the year of publication, the number of published papers has increased exponentially over time, mainly due to the technological development over the last decades. The most common sensor is the radiometer, which is employed in 15 papers (20.3%), followed by continuous-wave (CW) spectroscopy (12.2%), camera (10.8%) and THz time-domain spectroscopy (TDS) (10.8%). Excluding two studies, the minimum coefficient of determination (R2) obtained in the references of this review is 0.64. This indicates the high degree of correlation between the estimated and measured data for the different technologies and monitoring methods. The five most frequent water indicators of this study are: normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) (12.2%), backscattering coefficients (10.8%), spectral reflectance (8.1%), reflection coefficient (8.1%) and dielectric constant (8.1%).


2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. 418 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tian Jiang ◽  
Xiangnan Liu ◽  
Ling Wu

Accurate and timely information about rice planting areas is essential for crop yield estimation, global climate change and agricultural resource management. In this study, we present a novel pixel-level classification approach that uses convolutional neural network (CNN) model to extract the features of enhanced vegetation index (EVI) time series curve for classification. The goal is to explore the practicability of deep learning techniques for rice recognition in complex landscape regions, where rice is easily confused with the surroundings, by using mid-resolution remote sensing images. A transfer learning strategy is utilized to fine tune a pre-trained CNN model and obtain the temporal features of the EVI curve. Support vector machine (SVM), a traditional machine learning approach, is also implemented in the experiment. Finally, we evaluate the accuracy of the two models. Results show that our model performs better than SVM, with the overall accuracies being 93.60% and 91.05%, respectively. Therefore, this technique is appropriate for estimating rice planting areas in southern China on the basis of a pre-trained CNN model by using time series data. And more opportunity and potential can be found for crop classification by remote sensing and deep learning technique in the future study.


2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1601 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl Talsma ◽  
Stephen Good ◽  
Diego Miralles ◽  
Joshua Fisher ◽  
Brecht Martens ◽  
...  

Accurately estimating evapotranspiration (ET) at large spatial scales is essential to our understanding of land-atmosphere coupling and the surface balance of water and energy. Comparisons between remote sensing-based ET models are difficult due to diversity in model formulation, parametrization and data requirements. The constituent components of ET have been shown to deviate substantially among models as well as between models and field estimates. This study analyses the sensitivity of three global ET remote sensing models in an attempt to isolate the error associated with forcing uncertainty and reveal the underlying variables driving the model components. We examine the transpiration, soil evaporation, interception and total ET estimates of the Penman-Monteith model from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (PM-MOD), the Priestley-Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory model (PT-JPL) and the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) at 42 sites where ET components have been measured using field techniques. We analyse the sensitivity of the models based on the uncertainty of the input variables and as a function of the raw value of the variables themselves. We find that, at 10% added uncertainty levels, the total ET estimates from PT-JPL, PM-MOD and GLEAM are most sensitive to Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) (%RMSD = 100.0), relative humidity (%RMSD = 122.3) and net radiation (%RMSD = 7.49), respectively. Consistently, systemic bias introduced by forcing uncertainty in the component estimates is mitigated when components are aggregated to a total ET estimate. These results suggest that slight changes to forcing may result in outsized variation in ET partitioning and relatively smaller changes to the total ET estimates. Our results help to explain why model estimates of total ET perform relatively well despite large inter-model divergence in the individual ET component estimates.


2016 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. e0907 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mostafa K. Mosleh ◽  
Quazi K. Hassan ◽  
Ehsan H. Chowdhury

This study aimed to develop a remote sensing-based method for forecasting rice yield by considering vegetation greenness conditions during initial and peak greenness stages of the crop; and implemented for “boro” rice in Bangladeshi context. In this research, we used Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived two 16-day composite of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) images at 250 m spatial resolution acquired during the initial (January 1 to January 16) and peak greenness (March 23/24 to April 6/7 depending on leap year) stages in conjunction with secondary datasets (i.e., boro suitability map, and ground-based information) during 2007-2012 period. The method consisted of two components: (i) developing a model for delineating area under rice cultivation before harvesting; and (ii) forecasting rice yield as a function of NDVI. Our results demonstrated strong agreements between the model (i.e., MODIS-based) and ground-based area estimates during 2010-2012 period, i.e., coefficient of determination (R2); root mean square error (RMSE); and relative error (RE) in between 0.93 to 0.95; 30,519 to 37,451 ha; and ±10% respectively at the 23 district-levels. We also found good agreements between forecasted (i.e., MODIS-based) and ground-based yields during 2010-2012 period (R2 between 0.76 and 0.86; RMSE between 0.21 and 0.29 Mton/ha, and RE between -5.45% and 6.65%) at the 23 district-levels. We believe that our developments of forecasting the boro rice yield would be useful for the decision makers in addressing food security in Bangladesh.


2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (9) ◽  
pp. 30-37
Author(s):  
N.N. Sliusar ◽  
A.P. Belousova ◽  
G.M. Batrakova ◽  
R.D. Garifzyanov ◽  
M. Huber-Humer ◽  
...  

The possibilities of using remote sensing of the Earth data to assess the formation of phytocenoses at reclaimed dumps and landfills are presented. The objects of study are landfills and dumps in the Perm Territory, which differed from each other in the types and timing of reclamation work. The state of the vegetation cover on the reclaimed and self-overgrowing objects was compared with the reference plots with naturally formed herbage of zonal meadow vegetation. The process of reclamation of the territory of closed landfills was assessed by the presence and homogeneity of the vegetation layer and by the values of the vegetation index NDVI. To identify the dynamics of changes in the vegetation cover, we used multi-temporal satellite images from the open resources of Google Earth and images in the visible and infrared ranges of the Landsat-5/TM and Landsat-8/OLI satellites. It is shown that the data of remote sensing of the Earth, in particular the analysis of vegetation indices, can be used to assess the dynamics of overgrowing of territories of reclaimed waste disposal facilities, as well as an additional and cost-effective method for monitoring the restoration of previously disturbed territories.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1313
Author(s):  
Leah M. Mungai ◽  
Joseph P. Messina ◽  
Sieglinde Snapp

This study aims to assess spatial patterns of Malawian agricultural productivity trends to elucidate the influence of weather and edaphic properties on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) seasonal time series data over a decade (2006–2017). Spatially-located positive trends in the time series that can’t otherwise be accounted for are considered as evidence of farmer management and agricultural intensification. A second set of data provides further insights, using spatial distribution of farmer reported maize yield, inorganic and organic inputs use, and farmer reported soil quality information from the Malawi Integrated Household Survey (IHS3) and (IHS4), implemented between 2010–2011 and 2016–2017, respectively. Overall, remote-sensing identified areas of intensifying agriculture as not fully explained by biophysical drivers. Further, productivity trends for maize crop across Malawi show a decreasing trend over a decade (2006–2017). This is consistent with survey data, as national farmer reported yields showed low yields across Malawi, where 61% (2010–11) and 69% (2016–17) reported yields as being less than 1000 Kilograms/Hectare. Yields were markedly low in the southern region of Malawi, similar to remote sensing observations. Our generalized models provide contextual information for stakeholders on sustainability of productivity and can assist in targeting resources in needed areas. More in-depth research would improve detection of drivers of agricultural variability.


2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (16) ◽  
pp. 4305-4320 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. T. Klosterman ◽  
K. Hufkens ◽  
J. M. Gray ◽  
E. Melaas ◽  
O. Sonnentag ◽  
...  

Abstract. Plant phenology regulates ecosystem services at local and global scales and is a sensitive indicator of global change. Estimates of phenophase transition dates, such as the start of spring or end of fall, can be derived from sensor-based time series, but must be interpreted in terms of biologically relevant events. We use the PhenoCam archive of digital repeat photography to implement a consistent protocol for visual assessment of canopy phenology at 13 temperate deciduous forest sites throughout eastern North America, and to perform digital image analysis for time-series-based estimation of phenophase transition dates. We then compare these results to remote sensing metrics of phenophase transition dates derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensors. We present a new type of curve fit that uses a generalized sigmoid function to estimate phenology dates, and we quantify the statistical uncertainty of phenophase transition dates estimated using this method. Results show that the generalized sigmoid provides estimates of dates with less statistical uncertainty than other curve-fitting methods. Additionally, we find that dates derived from analysis of high-frequency PhenoCam imagery have smaller uncertainties than satellite remote sensing metrics of phenology, and that dates derived from the remotely sensed enhanced vegetation index (EVI) have smaller uncertainty than those derived from the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Near-surface time-series estimates for the start of spring are found to closely match estimates derived from visual assessment of leaf-out, as well as satellite remote-sensing-derived estimates of the start of spring. However late spring and fall phenology metrics exhibit larger differences between near-surface and remote scales. Differences in late spring phenology between near-surface and remote scales are found to correlate with a landscape metric of deciduous forest cover. These results quantify the effect of landscape heterogeneity when aggregating to the coarser spatial scales of remote sensing, and demonstrate the importance of accurate curve fitting and vegetation index selection when analyzing and interpreting phenology time series.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 1814
Author(s):  
Phamchimai Phan ◽  
Nengcheng Chen ◽  
Lei Xu ◽  
Zeqiang Chen

Tea is a cash crop that improves the quality of life for people in the Tanuyen District of Laichau Province, Vietnam. Tea yield, however, has stagnated in recent years, due to changes in temperature, precipitation, the age of the tea bushes, and diseases. Developing an approach for monitoring tea bushes by remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) might be a way to alleviate this problem. Using multi-temporal remote sensing data, the paper details an investigation of the changes in tea health and yield forecasting through the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). In this study, we used NDVI as a support tool to demonstrate the temporal and spatial changes in NDVI through the extract tea NDVI value and calculate the mean NDVI value. The results of the study showed that the minimum NDVI value was 0.42 during January 2013 and February 2015 and 2016. The maximum NDVI value was in August 2015 and June 2017. We indicate that the linear relationship between NDVI value and mean temperature was strong with R 2 = 0.79 Our results confirm that the combination of meteorological data and NDVI data can achieve a high performance of yield prediction. Three models to predict tea yield were conducted: support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and the traditional linear regression model (TLRM). For period 2009 to 2018, the prediction tea yield by the RF model was the best with a R 2 = 0.73 , by SVM it was 0.66, and 0.57 with the TLRM. Three evaluation indicators were used to consider accuracy: the coefficient of determination ( R 2 ), root-mean-square error (RMSE), and percentage error of tea yield (PETY). The highest accuracy for the three models was in 2015 with a R 2 ≥ 0.87, RMSE < 50 kg/ha, and PETY less 3% error. In the other years, the prediction accuracy was higher in the SVM and RF models. Meanwhile, the RF algorithm was better than PETY (≤10%) and the root mean square error for this algorithm was significantly less (≤80 kg/ha). RMSE and PETY showed relatively good values in the TLRM model with a RMSE from 80 to 100 kg/ha and a PETY from 8 to 15%.


2012 ◽  
Vol 47 (9) ◽  
pp. 1270-1278 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel de Castro Victoria ◽  
Adriano Rolim da Paz ◽  
Alexandre Camargo Coutinho ◽  
Jude Kastens ◽  
J. Christopher Brown

The objective of this work was to evaluate a simple, semi‑automated methodology for mapping cropland areas in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. A Fourier transform was applied over a time series of vegetation index products from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (Modis) sensor. This procedure allows for the evaluation of the amplitude of the periodic changes in vegetation response through time and the identification of areas with strong seasonal variation related to crop production. Annual cropland masks from 2006 to 2009 were generated and municipal cropland areas were estimated through remote sensing. We observed good agreement with official statistics on planted area, especially for municipalities with more than 10% of cropland cover (R² = 0.89), but poor agreement in municipalities with less than 5% crop cover (R² = 0.41). The assessed methodology can be used for annual cropland mapping over large production areas in Brazil.


2006 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 181-183 ◽  
Author(s):  
PHILIP F. FEARNSIDE

The BR-163 Highway (Fig. 1) was originally built by the Brazilian Army in 1973 and 1974. It has remained passable since, although poor road conditions in the unpaved portion (the 646-km portion in the state of Pará from the border with Mato Grosso to Trairão) impede use of the road as a significant export route. Reconstructing the highway has been a (so-far unimplemented) part of an evolving series of plans for massive expansion of infrastructure: Brasil em Ação (Brazil in Action) for 1996–1999, Avança Brasil (Forward Brazil) for 2000–2003, and the Pluriannual Plan for 2004–2007 (Laurance et al. 2001; Fearnside 2002). Soybean plantations in the northern part of the state of Mato Grosso have been rapidly expanding, partly in anticipation of the BR-163 being reconstructed and paved (Fearnside 2001). The governor of Mato Grosso since 2003 is Brazil's largest soybean entrepreneur and a major force in inducing the federal government to pave the road. With the construction of the BR-163, northern Mato Grosso would be linked to the ports of Miritituba and Santarém (Fig. 1), halving the current distance for transportation, as currently soybeans from northern Mato Grosso are exported through the port of Paranaguá in the state of Paraná. A future plan would take the soybeans by rail from Cuiabá to Santos. Cost savings for soybean export of US$ 11.6 per tonne relative to the rail route through Santos (Alencar et al. 2005) provide an economic argument for the BR-163 project. Soybean production in northern Mato Grosso was 3.61 million tonnes in 2004 (Alencar et al. 2005), worth approximately US$ 813 million. Nevertheless, even with substantial monetary benefits for the BR-163, the various forms of impact from the project must be quantified and compared to the benefits before a decision is made (Fearnside 2005).


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