scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution Patterns of Alpine Vegetation in the Hengduan Mountains Region, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 40 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yunling He ◽  
Qiaoli Xiong ◽  
Lan Yu ◽  
Wenbo Yan ◽  
Xinxing Qu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Hengduan Mountains ◽  
Alpine Vegetation ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Chinese White Pine Beetle Dendroctonus armandi in China

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 544
Author(s):  
Hang Ning ◽  
Ming Tang ◽  
Hui Chen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Central China ◽  
Qinling Mountains ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Precipitation Seasonality ◽  
Suitable Area ◽  
The Impact

Dendroctonus armandi (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytidae) is a bark beetle native to China and is the most destructive forest pest in the Pinus armandii woodlands of central China. Due to ongoing climate warming, D. armandi outbreaks have become more frequent and severe. Here, we used Maxent to model its current and future potential distribution in China. Minimum temperature of the coldest month and precipitation seasonality are the two major factors constraining the current distribution of D. armandi. Currently, the suitable area of D. armandi falls within the Qinling Mountains and Daba Mountains. The total suitable area is 15.83 × 104 km2. Under future climate scenarios, the total suitable area is projected to increase slightly, while remaining within the Qinling Mountains and Daba Mountains. Among the climate scenarios, the distribution expanded the most under the maximum greenhouse gas emission scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5). Under all assumptions, the highly suitable area is expected to increase over time; the increase will occur in southern Shaanxi, northwest Hubei, and northeast Sichuan Provinces. By the 2050s, the highly suitable area is projected to increase by 0.82 × 104 km2. By the 2050s, the suitable climatic niche for D. armandi will increase along the Qinling Mountains and Daba Mountains, posing a major challenge for forest managers. Our findings provide information that can be used to monitor D. armandi populations, host health, and the impact of climate change, shedding light on the effectiveness of management responses.

scholarly journals Current and future suitable habitat areas for Nasuella olivacea (Gray, 1865) in Colombia and Ecuador and analysis of its distribution across different land uses

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Medrano-Vizcaíno ◽  
Patricia Gutiérrez-Salazar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Wildlife Conservation ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Ecological Niche Models

Nasuella olivacea is an endemic mammal from the Andes of Ecuador and Colombia. Due to its rarity, aspects about its natural history, ecology and distribution patterns are not well known, therefore, research is needed to generate knowledge about this carnivore and a first step is studying suitable habitat areas. We performed Ecological Niche Models and applied future climate change scenarios (2.6 and 8.5 RCP) to determine the potential distribution of this mammal in Colombia and Ecuador, with current and future climate change conditions; furthermore, we analysed its distribution along several land covers. We found that N. olivacea is likely to be found in areas where no records have been reported previously; likewise, climate change conditions would increase suitable distribution areas. Concerning land cover, 73.4% of N. olivacea potential distribution was located outside Protected Areas (PA), 46.1% in Forests and 40.3% in Agricultural Lands. These findings highlight the need to further research understudied species, furthering our understanding about distribution trends and responses to changing climatic conditions, as well as informig future PA designing. These are essential tools for supporting wildlife conservation plans, being applicable for rare species whose biology and ecology remain unknown.

scholarly journals IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION OF NATIVE AND INVASIVE GRASSES IN THE CERRADO

FLORESTA ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 50 (3) ◽  
pp. 1555
Author(s):  
Paula Alves Oliveira ◽  
Cristiane Coelho De Moura ◽  
Lidia Gabriella Santos ◽  
Israel Marinho Pereira ◽  
Marcelo Leandro Bueno ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Melinis Minutiflora ◽  
Environmental Suitability ◽  
Current Period ◽  
Invasive Grasses ◽  
African Grasses ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Exotic Grass

Biological invasion, mainly by African grasses, is one of the main threats to the Cerrado's biodiversity. The objective of this study was to elucidate the distribution patterns of the exotic grass Melinis minutiflora and the native grass Trichanthecium cyanescens, in order to verify the areas of potential occurrence of these species and, thus, to infer if their potential distribution will be affected by climate changes. Species occurrence data and ten uncorrelated climatic variables referring to the forecasts for the current period and future forecasts (2050 and 2070) were used for the analysis of the modeling. The models indicated the existence of environmental suitability, with AUCs above 0.8 (good) being observed in M. minutiflora and above 0.9 (excellent) in T. cyanescens. It is concluded that climate change may have negative impacts on the geographic distribution of these species, reducing the area of environmental suitability for them. In addition, the species studied have similar areas of potential distribution and regularly overlap, which can make M. minutiflora a threat to the conservation of T. cyanences, due to the invasion potential of the first.

Potential distribution patterns of scorpions in north-eastern Brazil under scenarios of future climate change

2019 ◽  
Vol 45 (2) ◽  
pp. 215-228 ◽  
Author(s):  
André Felipe de Araujo Lira ◽  
Raúl Badillo-Montaño ◽  
Andrés Lira-Noriega ◽  
Cleide Maria Ribeiro de Albuquerque
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Eastern Brazil ◽  
North Eastern

Simulation of potential distribution patterns of the invasive plant species Xanthium spinosum L. (Bathurst burr) in Xinjiang under climate change

2019 ◽  
Vol 39 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
塞依丁·海米提 SAYIT Hamit ◽  
努尔巴依·阿布都沙力克 NURBAY Abdushalih ◽  
许仲林 XU Zhonglin ◽  
阿尔曼·解思斯 ARMAN Jiesisi ◽  
邵华 SHAO Hua ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Plant Species ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Invasive Plant ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Invasive Plant Species

scholarly journals Estimating the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins with species distribution model

PeerJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. e12001
Author(s):  
Jinbo Fu ◽  
Linlin Zhao ◽  
Changdong Liu ◽  
Bin Sun
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Ensemble Model ◽  
Public Attention ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Sousa Chinensis ◽  
The Impact

As IUCN critically vulnerable species,the Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins (Sousa chinensis) have attracted great public attention in recent years. The threats of human disturbance and environmental pollution to this population have been documented extensively. However, research on the sensitivity of this species to climate change is lacking. To understand the effect of climate change on the potential distribution of Sousa chinensis, we developed a weighted ensemble model based on 82 occurrence records and six predictor variables (e.g., ocean depth, distance to shore, mean temperature, salinity, ice thickness, and current velocity). According to the true skill statistic (TSS) and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), our ensemble model presented higher prediction precision than most of the single-algorithm models. It also indicated that ocean depth and distance to shore were the most important predictors in shaping the distribution patterns. The projections for the 2050s and 2100s from our ensemble model indicated a severe adverse impact of climate change on the Sousa chinensis habitat. Over 75% and 80% of the suitable habitat in the present day will be lost in all representative concentration pathway emission scenarios (RCPS) in the 2050s and 2100s, respectively. With the increased numbers of records of stranding and deaths of Sousa chinensis in recent years, strict management regulations and conservation plans are urgent to safeguard the current suitable habitats. Due to habitat contraction and poleward shift in the future, adaptive management strategies, including designing new reserves and adjusting the location and range of reserves according to the geographical distribution of Sousa chinensis, should be formulated to minimize the impacts of climate change on this species.

Potential Distributions of the Invasive Barnacle Scale Ceroplastes cirripediformis (Hemiptera: Coccidae) Under Climate Change and Implications for Its Management

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fang Wang ◽  
Duo Wang ◽  
Ge Guo ◽  
Meixia Zhang ◽  
Jiayi Lang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Insect Pest ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Scientific Basis ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Global Risk ◽  
Mean Temperature

Abstract Ceroplastes cirripediformis Comstock is one of the most destructive invasive pests that have caused various negative impacts to agricultural, ornamental, and greenhouse plants. Since it is time- and labor-consuming to control C. cirripediformis, habitat evaluation of this pest may be the most cost-effective method for predicting its dispersal and avoiding its outbreaks. Here, we evaluated the effects of climatic variables on distribution patterns of C. cirripediformis and produced a global risk map for its outbreak under current and future climate scenarios using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model. Our results showed that mean temperature of driest quarter (Bio 9), precipitation of coldest quarter (Bio 19), precipitation of warmest quarter (Bio 18), and mean temperature of wettest quarter (Bio 8) were the main factors influencing the current modeled distribution of C. cirripediformis, respectively, contributing 41.9, 29.4, 18.8, and 7.9%. The models predicted that, globally, potential distribution of C. cirripediformis would be across most zoogeographical regions under both current and future climate scenarios. Moreover, in the future, both the total potential distribution region and its area of highly suitable habitat are expected to expand slightly in all representative concentration pathway scenarios. The information generated from this study will contribute to better identify the impacts of climate change upon C. cirripediformis’s potential distribution while also providing a scientific basis for forecasting insect pest spread and outbreaks. Furthermore, this study serves an early warning for the regions of potential distribution, predicted as highly suitable habitats for this pest, which could promote its prevention and control.

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