THE HOURS WORKED–PRODUCTIVITY PUZZLE: IDENTIFICATION IN A FRACTIONAL INTEGRATION SETTING

2014 ◽  
Vol 19 (7) ◽  
pp. 1593-1621 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuliya Lovcha ◽  
Alejandro Perez-Laborda
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Fractional Integration ◽  
Real Business Cycle ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Sampling Uncertainty ◽  
Hours Worked ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Hours ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Technology Shock

A recent finding of the SVAR literature is that the response of hours worked to a (positive) technology shock depends on the assumed order of integration of the hours. In this work we relax this assumption, allowing fractional integration in hours and productivity. We find that the sign and magnitude of the estimated responses depend crucially on the identification assumptions employed. Although the responses of hours recovered with short-run (SR) restrictions are positive in all data sets, long-run (LR) identification results in negative, although sometimes not significant responses. We check the validity of these assumptions with the Sims procedure, concluding that both LR and SR are appropriate to recover responses in a fractionally integrated VAR. However, the application of the LR scheme always results in an increase in sampling uncertainty. Results also show that even the negative responses found in the data could still be compatible with real business cycle models.

scholarly journals TECHNOLOGY SHOCKS AND HOURS WORKED: A FRACTIONAL INTEGRATION PERSPECTIVE

2009 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 580-604 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana ◽  
Antonio Moreno
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Response ◽  
Fractional Integration ◽  
Integrated Model ◽  
Technology Shocks ◽  
Hours Worked ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
The Hours ◽  
Technology Shock

Previous research has found that the dynamic response of hours worked to a technology shock crucially depends on whether the hours variable is assumed to be an I(0) or an I(1) variable ex ante. In this paper we employ a multivariate fractionally integrated model that allows us to simultaneously estimate the order of integration of hours worked and its dynamic response to a technology shock. Our evidence lends support to the hypothesis that hours fall in response to a positive technology shock.

Fluctuations and Rigidities in Local Labor Markets. Part 1: Theory and Evidence

1983 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 165-185 ◽  
Author(s):  
G L Clark
Keyword(s):  
Spectral Analysis ◽  
Labor Market ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Labor Markets ◽  
Local Labor Markets ◽  
Hours Worked ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Us Cities

Cyclical sensitivity in employment, wages, and hours worked are explored with reference to three industries and eleven US cities over the period 1972–1980. Conventional neoclassical discrete-exchange models of the labor market are shown to be inadequate because of marked rigidities in the patterns of short-run adjustment. Money wages are very stable, being dominated by a long-run trend, and firms tend to adjust hours worked and only then employment in the short run. There are, however, significant interregional variations in these patterns within the same industry. Spectral analysis and tests for periodicities in the patterns of residuals derived from trend-line estimates of money wages confirm a supposition that urban Phillips curves do not exist. The evidence supports the implicit notion of contract theory that continuous employer-worker relationships exist over the business cycle. The question of how useful, in general, this theory might be is left open for the present.

ROBERTSON’S INDUSTRIAL FLUCTUATION (1915): AN EARLY REAL BUSINESS CYCLE-LIKE APPROACH

2016 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-46 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pascal Bridel
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Real Business Cycle ◽  
Marginal Productivity ◽  
Equilibrium Outcome ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Intertemporal Equilibrium ◽  
State Of Rest ◽  
Rbc Models

This paper re-examines Dennis Robertson’s ‘real’ business cycle (RBC) theory outlined in his 1915 A Study in Industrial Fluctuation. Even if, for Robertson, cycles find their origin and respond to oscillations in entrepreneurs’ “rational inducement” to invest, in opposition to RBC models in which every outcome is by construction an equilibrium outcome, Robertson discusses in a traditional way the short-run consequences of such exogenous technological shocks. There are no intertemporal equilibrium phenomena in the sense of the RBC approach; cycle theory is organized, for Robertson, around a Marshallian-defined center of gravity (or long-run equilibrium state of rest). For him, the real forces are represented by the gestation period of investment, but also by investment’s durability, its imperfect divisibility, and, allied with these, its intractability. These features of investment lead to excessive outlays upon capital investment, which ultimately depresses their marginal productivity. The inevitable and rational result is a downturn in the capital goods industries and the onset of a cycle.

scholarly journals LABOR MARKET DYNAMICS UNDER TECHNOLOGY SHOCKS: THE ROLE OF SUBSISTENCE CONSUMPTION

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-29
Author(s):  
Sangyup Choi ◽  
Myungkyu Shim
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Structural Var ◽  
Market Dynamics ◽  
Technology Shocks ◽  
Structural Factors ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Labor Market Dynamics ◽  
Short Run

This paper establishes new stylized facts about labor market dynamics in developing economies, which are distinct from those in advanced economies, and then proposes a simple model to explain them. We first show that the response of hours worked and employment to a technology shock—identified by a structural VAR model with either short-run or long-run restrictions—is substantially smaller in developing economies. We then present compelling empirical evidence that several structural factors related to the relevance of subsistence consumption across countries can jointly account for the relative volatility of employment to output and that of consumption to output. We argue that a standard real business cycle (RBC) model augmented with subsistence consumption can explain the several salient features of business cycle fluctuations in developing economies, especially their distinct labor market dynamics under technology shocks.

The Association Between Bank Credit Terms and Conditions and the Business Cycle in the Euro Area

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (4) ◽  
pp. 247-256
Author(s):  
Dimitrios Anastasiou ◽  
Konstantinos Drakos
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Bank Loan ◽  
Bank Credit ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Loan Terms ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Business Cycle

Abstract We explored the trajectory of bank loan terms and conditions over the business cycle, where the latter was decomposed into its long-run (trend) and short-run (cyclical) components. We found that deterioration of each business cycle component leads to a significant tightening of credit terms and conditions. We found mixed results concerning the symmetry of impacts of the short and long run components. Symmetry was found between the terms and conditions on loans for small vs. large enterprises. Our findings provide very useful information to policy makers and should be taken into consideration when monetary policies are designed.

A Long View of the UK Business Cycle

2002 ◽  
Vol 182 ◽  
pp. 72-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jagjit S. Chadha ◽  
Charles Nolan
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Nominal Interest Rates ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Uk ◽  
External Sector

We outline a number of ‘stylised’ facts on the UK business cycle obtained from analysis of the long-run UK annual dataset. The findings are to some extent standard. Consumption and investment are pro-cyclical, with productivity playing a dominant role in explaining business cycle fluctuations at all horizons. Money neutrality obtains over the long run but there is clear evidence of non-neutrality over the short run, particularly at the business cycle frequencies. Business cycle relationships with the external sector via the real exchange rate and current account are notable. Postwar, the price level is counter-cyclical and real wages are pro-cyclical, as are nominal interest rates. Modern general equilibrium macroeconomic models capture many of these patterns.

scholarly journals Cost effectiveness of health expenditures: A macro level study for developing and developed countries

2020 ◽  
pp. 26-42
Author(s):  
Syeda Anam Fatima Rizvi
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Health Spending ◽  
Health Expenditures ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Developing And Developed Countries

Resource availability matters the most in health care system-based outcomes. But health spending is highly unequal across the world and presents varying outcomes. This study aims to investigate the missing part that why some countries failed to have reasonable outcomes despite spending more than those countries that spend less. This study intends to include all those factors that are responsible for improving the cost-effectiveness of health expenditures. The study took two data sets, one from the developing countries and second of developed countries as per World Bank classification. As anticipated, there are significant differences in health per capita expenditures. Determinants were also found to behave differently both in the short run and long run as well as across the two data sets.

scholarly journals Cyclical Fluctuation, Growth, and Stabilization: An Empirical Investigation of Dual Policy Objectives in Bangladesh

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richmond Sam Quarm ◽  
Mohamed Osman Elamin Busharads
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Business Cycle

In conventional economics, two types of macroeconomic policy i.e. fiscal policy and monetary policy are used to streamline the business cycle. This paper has examined the cyclical behavior of these variables over the business cycle of Bangladesh. The objective of this examination is to show whether policies (fiscal policy and monetary policy) in Bangladesh are taken with a motive to stabilize the economy or only to promote economic growth. In other words, it has examined whether the policies in Bangladesh are procyclical or countercyclical or acyclical. Hodrick Prescott (HP) filter has been used to separate the cyclical component of considered variables. Both correlation and regression-based analysis have provided that in Bangladesh government expenditure and interest rates behave procyclically, but money supply behaves acyclically over the business cycle. Besides, this paper has tried to identify the long-term as well as the short-term relationship between real GDP and the macroeconomic policy variables with the help of the Johansen cointegration test, vector error correction model (VECM), and block exogeneity Wald test. Through these analyses, this study has found that fiscal policy has a significant impact on GDP growth both in the short-run and long-run. In the case of monetary policy, although the interest rate has an impact on real output both in the short-run and long-run, the money supply has neither a short-run nor long-run effect on output growth.

scholarly journals From Data to Causes I: Building A General Cross-Lagged Panel Model (GCLM)

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 651-687 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J. Zyphur ◽  
Paul D. Allison ◽  
Louis Tay ◽  
Manuel C. Voelkle ◽  
Kristopher J. Preacher ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Causal Inference ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
National Income ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Subjective Well Being ◽  
Panel Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This is the first paper in a series of two that synthesizes, compares, and extends methods for causal inference with longitudinal panel data in a structural equation modeling (SEM) framework. Starting with a cross-lagged approach, this paper builds a general cross-lagged panel model (GCLM) with parameters to account for stable factors while increasing the range of dynamic processes that can be modeled. We illustrate the GCLM by examining the relationship between national income and subjective well-being (SWB), showing how to examine hypotheses about short-run (via Granger-Sims tests) versus long-run effects (via impulse responses). When controlling for stable factors, we find no short-run or long-run effects among these variables, showing national SWB to be relatively stable, whereas income is less so. Our second paper addresses the differences between the GCLM and other methods. Online Supplementary Materials offer an Excel file automating GCLM input for Mplus (with an example also for Lavaan in R) and analyses using additional data sets and all program input/output. We also offer an introductory GCLM presentation at https://youtu.be/tHnnaRNPbXs . We conclude with a discussion of issues surrounding causal inference.

scholarly journals Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations

2006 ◽  
Vol 96 (4) ◽  
pp. 1293-1307 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Beaudry ◽  
Franck Portier
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Productivity Growth ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations ◽  
Monetary Shock ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Technology Shock ◽  
Technological Opportunities ◽  
Joint Behavior

We show that the joint behavior of stock prices and TFP favors a view of business cycles driven largely by a shock that does not affect productivity in the short run – and therefore does not look like a standard technology shock – but affects productivity with substantial delay – and therefore does not look like a monetary shock. One structural interpretation for this shock is that it represents news about future technological opportunities which is first captured in stock prices. This shock causes a boom in consumption, investment, and hours worked that precedes productivity growth by a few years, and explains about 50 percent of business cycle fluctuations.

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