scholarly journals Using MapMCDA Tool for the Spatial Epidemiology of Animal Rabies in Morocco: How to Improve the Rationality of a Qualitative Risk Assessment

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 16-24
Author(s):  
Mounir Khayli ◽  
◽  
Mehdi Kechna ◽  
Khalil Zro ◽  
Faouzi Kichou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Spatial Epidemiology ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Expert Opinions ◽  
Significant Alignment ◽  
Geographic Patterns ◽  
Risk Estimates ◽  
Qualitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Multiple Component ◽  
Qualitative Changes

Objective The objective behind this article is to better characterize spatial distribution of animal rabies in Morocco through qualitative risk assessment framework. In Morocco, the occurrence of the disease is neither clearly distributed nor complete. Therefore, risk assessment methods become strongly recommended to cope with distorted geographic patterns. Methods Based on data collection set from 168 counties, qualitative changes on spatial epidemiology of rabies were analysed by mapMCDA tool covering a period from 2004 to 2017 and including information on determinants of the geographic distribution of animal rabies in Morocco defined in previous work. Results To validate the risk assessment model, the results were compared to rabies cases reported during the study period. The clustering of the rabies risk estimates is decisive and highly reliable. A significant alignment was shown between the very high and high-risk estimates. Conclusion This study is the first attempt that has been made for using MapMCDA for rabies. For a normative process aiming to avoid subjectivity related to expert-opinions, authors suggest conducting initially a statistical multiple component analysis that will provide quantified estimates of risk factors. It would be an advisable decision-making tool that helps to design oriented surveillance and allows better referral of actions to control the disease.

Quantitative Assessment of the Microbial Risk of Leafy Greens from Farm to Consumption: Preliminary Framework, Data, and Risk Estimates

2011 ◽  
Vol 74 (5) ◽  
pp. 700-708 ◽  
Author(s):  
MICHELLE D. DANYLUK ◽  
DONALD W. SCHAFFNER
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment ◽  
Microbial Risk Assessment ◽  
Microbial Risk ◽  
E Coli ◽  
Leafy Greens ◽  
Risk Estimates ◽  
Washing Process

This project was undertaken to relate what is known about the behavior of Escherichia coli O157:H7 under laboratory conditions and integrate this information to what is known regarding the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 spinach outbreak in the context of a quantitative microbial risk assessment. The risk model explicitly assumes that all contamination arises from exposure in the field. Extracted data, models, and user inputs were entered into an Excel spreadsheet, and the modeling software @RISK was used to perform Monte Carlo simulations. The model predicts that cut leafy greens that are temperature abused will support the growth of E. coli O157:H7, and populations of the organism may increase by as much a 1 log CFU/day under optimal temperature conditions. When the risk model used a starting level of −1 log CFU/g, with 0.1% of incoming servings contaminated, the predicted numbers of cells per serving were within the range of best available estimates of pathogen levels during the outbreak. The model predicts that levels in the field of −1 log CFU/g and 0.1% prevalence could have resulted in an outbreak approximately the size of the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 outbreak. This quantitative microbial risk assessment model represents a preliminary framework that identifies available data and provides initial risk estimates for pathogenic E. coli in leafy greens. Data gaps include retail storage times, correlations between storage time and temperature, determining the importance of E. coli O157:H7 in leafy greens lag time models, and validation of the importance of cross-contamination during the washing process.

Quantitative microbial risk assessment applied to irrigation of salad crops with waste stabilization pond effluents

2013 ◽  
Vol 67 (6) ◽  
pp. 1208-1215 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. M. S. Pavione ◽  
R. K. X. Bastos ◽  
P. D. Bevilacqua
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Field Experiments ◽  
Daily Intake ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment ◽  
Microbial Risk Assessment ◽  
Microbial Risk ◽  
Risk Estimates ◽  
Log Normal

A quantitative microbial risk assessment model for estimating infection risks arising from consuming crops eaten raw that have been irrigated with effluents from stabilization ponds was constructed. A log-normal probability distribution function was fitted to a large database from a comprehensive monitoring of an experimental pond system to account for variability in Escherichia coli concentration in irrigation water. Crop contamination levels were estimated using predictive models derived from field experiments involving the irrigation of several crops with different effluent qualities. Data on daily intake of salad crops were obtained from a national survey in Brazil. Ten thousand-trial Monte Carlo simulations were used to estimate human health risks associated with the use of wastewater for irrigating low- and high-growing crops. The use of effluents containing 103–104E. coli per 100 ml resulted in median rotavirus infection risk of approximately 10−3 and 10−4 pppy when irrigating, respectively, low- and high-growing crops; the corresponding 95th percentile risk estimates were around 10−2 in both scenarios. Sensitivity analyses revealed that variations in effluent quality, in the assumed ratios of pathogens to E. coli, and in the reduction of pathogens between harvest and consumption had great impact upon risk estimates.

RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL OF COASTAL SEA POLLUTION BY BLACK (SEWAGE) WATERS FROM VESSELS

2021 ◽  
Vol 160 (A4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ž Koboević ◽  
Ž Kurtela ◽  
N Koboević
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
International Standards ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Sensitivity Factor ◽  
Sensitivity Index ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Sea Pollution ◽  
Qualitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Coastal Sea

Qualitative risk assessment using the risk matrices recommended by International Maritime Organization (IMO) and International Standards Organization (ISO) cannot be used for the risk assessment of the pollution of precisely determined part of the coastal sea by black waters from various vessels. Therefore, an original model has been set for risk assessment by means of multiplicative matrices at three levels, allowing risk assessment for very complex assessments with a lot more input factors unlike the classic risk matrix that has two input factors (frequency of occurrence, intensity of consequences). The proposed model of risk assessment uses matrices which first determine the vessel risk index taking into consideration the factor of device for the processing of black waters and the factor of regulations that are applied to the respective vessels. Later, the location sensitivity index is determined, which takes into consideration the sensitivity factor of the location and the factor of impact on the location. Finally, at the third level the assessed risk of sea pollution by black waters is determined according to the type of vessel at precisely defined maritime zone locations. The offered model of risk assessment using multiplicative matrices has practical application and can be used also for many other risk assessments that take into consideration many input factors that affect the risk. The result of risk assessment of the pollution of the coastal sea can be used in decision-making in risk management for undertaking measures in order to protect the coastal sea, human health, and economic activities of a certain area in the coastal sea.

The practice of digital transformation risk assessment of business entities in the Russian Federation

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (9) ◽  
pp. 1756-1773
Author(s):  
Natal'ya A. KHUTOROVA ◽  
Nikolai A. ROGASHKOV
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Corporate Culture ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Digital Transformation ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Clear Trend ◽  
Qualitative Risk Assessment ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Business Entities ◽  
The Impact

Subject. The article discusses main practical approaches to assessing the risks of digital transformation and proposes an integrated model of risk-based approach to digital transformation that rests on key performance indicators for digital transformation risk assessment. Objectives. The aim is to perform a critical analysis of the practice of assessing the risks of digital transformation of economic entities in the Russian Federation. Methods. To perform the comparative analysis of practices of assessing the risks of digital transformation, we apply methods of analysis, comparison, and systematization of the obtained information. Results. We analyzed the practice of assessing the risks of digital transformation of business entities, developed recommendations to improve models for assessing the digital transformation risks, and offered an integrated risk assessment model. Conclusions. Given the specifics of the approach of Russian business entities to assessing the risks of digital transformation and a clear trend towards boosting the digitalization, it is advisable to apply a combined model, which includes both the assessment of the impact of digitalization measures on the economic performance of a company and qualitative risk assessment models based on the introduction of a risk-based Agile approach, embedded in the corporate culture of the company, as well as Due Diligence methods; to implement a mechanism of State support for companies, which are in the process of digital transformation.

Risk Assessment Model of Coastal Sea Pollution by Black (Sewage) Waters From Vessels

2018 ◽  
Vol Vol 160 (A4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Z Koboević ◽  
Z Kurtela ◽  
N Koboević
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
International Standards ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Sensitivity Factor ◽  
Sensitivity Index ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Sea Pollution ◽  
Qualitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Coastal Sea

Qualitative risk assessment using the risk matrices recommended by International Maritime Organization (IMO) and International Standards Organization (ISO) cannot be used for the risk assessment of the pollution of precisely determined part of the coastal sea by black waters from various vessels. Therefore, an original model has been set for risk assessment by means of multiplicative matrices at three levels, allowing risk assessment for very complex assessments with a lot more input factors unlike the classic risk matrix that has two input factors (frequency of occurrence, intensity of consequences). The proposed model of risk assessment uses matrices which first determine the vessel risk index taking into consideration the factor of device for the processing of black waters and the factor of regulations that are applied to the respective vessels. Later, the location sensitivity index is determined, which takes into consideration the sensitivity factor of the location and the factor of impact on the location. Finally, at the third level the assessed risk of sea pollution by black waters is determined according to the type of vessel at precisely defined maritime zone locations. The offered model of risk assessment using multiplicative matrices has practical application and can be used also for many other risk assessments that take into consideration many input factors that affect the risk. The result of risk assessment of the pollution of the coastal sea can be used in decision-making in risk management for undertaking measures in order to protect the coastal sea, human health, and economic activities of a certain area in the coastal sea.

Risk assessment model for venous thromboembolism in hospitalized surgical and non-surgical patients in the 4th Hungarian Antithrombotic Guidelines entitled “Diminution and Treatment of Venous Thromboembolism”

2010 ◽  
Vol 151 (34) ◽  
pp. 1365-1374 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marianna Dávid ◽  
Hajna Losonczy ◽  
Miklós Udvardy ◽  
Zoltán Boda ◽  
György Blaskó ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Venous Thromboembolism ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Surgical Patients ◽  
Risk Assessment Model

A kórházban kezelt sebészeti és belgyógyászati betegekben jelentős a vénásthromboembolia-rizikó. Profilaxis nélkül, a műtét típusától függően, a sebészeti beavatkozások kapcsán a betegek 15–60%-ában alakul ki mélyvénás trombózis vagy tüdőembólia, és az utóbbi ma is vezető kórházi halálok. Bár a vénás thromboemboliát leggyakrabban a közelmúltban végzett műtéttel vagy traumával hozzák kapcsolatba, a szimptómás thromboemboliás események 50–70%-a és a fatális tüdőembóliák 70–80%-a nem a sebészeti betegekben alakul ki. Nemzetközi és hazai felmérések alapján a nagy kockázattal rendelkező sebészeti betegek többsége megkapja a szükséges trombózisprofilaxist. Azonban profilaxis nélkül marad a rizikóval rendelkező belgyógyászati betegek jelentős része, a konszenzuson alapuló nemzetközi és hazai irányelvi ajánlások ellenére. A belgyógyászati betegek körében növelni kell a profilaxisban részesülők arányát és el kell érni, hogy trombózisrizikó esetén a betegek megkapják a hatásos megelőzést. A beteg trombóziskockázatának felmérése fontos eszköze a vénás thromboembolia által veszélyeztetett betegek felderítésének, megkönnyíti a döntést a profilaxis elrendeléséről és javítja az irányelvi ajánlások betartását. A trombózisveszély megállapításakor, ha nem ellenjavallt, profilaxist kell alkalmazni. „A thromboemboliák kockázatának csökkentése és kezelése” című, 4. magyar antithromboticus irányelv felhívja a figyelmet a vénástrombózis-rizikó felmérésének szükségességére, és elsőként tartalmazza a kórházban fekvő belgyógyászati és sebészeti betegek kockázati kérdőívét. Ismertetjük a kockázatbecslő kérdőíveket és áttekintjük a kérdőívekben szereplő rizikófaktorokra vonatkozó bizonyítékokon alapuló adatokat.

Liquidity Gap Report for Stress Testing Structural Liquidity Risk

GIS Business ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 43-53
Author(s):  
Eugenia Schmitt
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Stress Testing ◽  
Gap Analysis ◽  
Liquidity Risk ◽  
Methodological Basis ◽  
Qualitative Risk Assessment ◽  
The Future ◽  
Liquidity Gap

The need to focus on banks funding structure and stress testing in an explicit way arose as a consequence of the crisis of past decades. Liquidity risks usually occur as a consequence of other kinds of risks, hence analysing scenarios in a prospective manner is essential for the assessment if the bank can fulfill its obligations as they come due and if its funding costs are appropriate. The structural liquidity risk and the degree of the liquidity mismatch can be measured based on the liquidity gap analysis, where expected cash-in- and outflows, divided in different time-buckets are depicted. The liquidity gap report (LGR) shows if a liquidity shortcoming appears in the future and how high is the amount a bank would have to pay, if any hedging were not possible. This paper shows how to build a comprehensive LGR which is the base for both, liquidity and wealth risk evaluation. To improve the accuracy of the forecast, the counterbalancing capacity will be incorporated into the LGR. This tool is a methodological basis for quantitative and qualitative risk assessment and stress testing.

Signature Analysis: Statistical Models and Their Application to FA

1996 ◽  
Author(s):  
C.K. Lakshminarayan ◽  
S. Pabbisetty ◽  
O. Adams ◽  
F. Pires ◽  
M. Thomas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Failure Analysis ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Essential Elements ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Signature Analysis ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Sample Sizes ◽  
Reliability Engineering ◽  
Semiconductor Chips

Abstract This paper deals with the basic concepts of Signature Analysis and the application of statistical models for its implementation. It develops a scheme for computing sample sizes when the failures are random. It also introduces statistical models that comprehend correlations among failures that fail due to the same failure mechanism. The idea of correlation is important because semiconductor chips are processed in batches. Also any risk assessment model should comprehend correlations over time. The statistical models developed will provide the required sample sizes for the Failure Analysis lab to state "We are A% confident that B% of future parts will fail due to the same signature." The paper provides tables and graphs for the evaluation of such a risk assessment. The implementation of Signature Analysis will achieve the dual objective of improved customer satisfaction and reduced cycle time. This paper will also highlight it's applicability as well as the essential elements that need to be in place for it to be effective. Different examples have been illustrated of how the concept is being used by Failure Analysis Operations (FA) and Customer Quality and Reliability Engineering groups.

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