scholarly journals Credibility via Coupling

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 10-32
Author(s):  
Matthew S. Mayernik

This study investigates Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) as one example of a coordinated approach to establishing scientific credibility. MIPs originated within climate science as a method to evaluate and compare disparate climate models, but MIPs or MIP-like projects are now spreading to many scientific fields. Within climate science, MIPs have advanced knowledge of: a) the climate phenomena being modeled, and b) the building of climate models themselves. MIPs thus build scientific confidence in the climate modeling enterprise writ large, reducing questions of the credibility or reproducibility of any single model. This paper will discuss how MIPs organize people, models, and data through institution and infrastructure coupling (IIC). IIC involves establishing mechanisms and technologies for collecting, distributing, and comparing data and models (infrastructural work), alongside corresponding governance structures, rules of participation, and collaboration mechanisms that enable partners around the world to work together effectively (institutional work). Coupling these efforts involves developing formal and informal ways to standardize data and metadata, create common vocabularies, provide uniform tools and methods for evaluating resulting data, and build community around shared research topics.

2016 ◽  
Vol 97 (7) ◽  
pp. 1173-1185 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter J. Walton ◽  
Morgan B. Yarker ◽  
Michel D. S. Mesquita ◽  
Friederike E. L. Otto

Abstract Globally, decision-makers are increasingly using high-resolution climate models to support policy and planning; however, many of these users do not have the knowledge needed to use them appropriately. This problem is compounded by not having access to quality learning opportunities to better understand how to apply the models and interpret results. This paper discusses and proposes an educational framework based on two independent online courses on regional climate modeling, which addresses the accessibility issue and provides guidance to climate science professors, researchers, and institutions who want to create their own online courses. The role of e-learning as an educational tool is well documented, highlighting the benefits of improved personal efficiency through “anywhere, anytime” learning with the flexibility to support professional development across different sectors. In addition, improved global Internet means increased accessibility. However, e-learning’s function as a tool to support understanding of atmospheric physics and high-resolution climate modeling has not been widely discussed. To date, few courses, if any, support understanding that takes full advantage of e-learning best practices. There is a growing need for climate literacy to help inform decision-making on a range of scales, from individual households to corporate CEOs. And while there is a plethora of climate information online, educational theory suggests that people need to be guided in how to convert this information into applicable knowledge. Here, we present how the experience of the courses we designed and ran independent of each other, both engaging learners with better understanding benefits and limitations of regional climate modeling, lead to a framework of designing e-learning for climate modeling.


2014 ◽  
Vol 95 (9) ◽  
pp. 1329-1334 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joao Teixeira ◽  
Duane Waliser ◽  
Robert Ferraro ◽  
Peter Gleckler ◽  
Tsengdar Lee ◽  
...  

The objective of the Observations for Model Intercomparison Projects (Obs4MIPs) is to provide observational data to the climate science community, which is analogous (in terms of variables, temporal and spatial frequency, and periods) to output from the 5th phase of the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate model simulations. The essential aspect of the Obs4MIPs methodology is that it strictly follows the CMIP5 protocol document when selecting the observational datasets. Obs4MIPs also provides documentation that describes aspects of the observational data (e.g., data origin, instrument overview, uncertainty estimates) that are of particular relevance to scientists involved in climate model evaluation and analysis. In this paper, we focus on the activities related to the initial set of satellite observations, which are being carried out in close coordination with CMIP5 and directly engage NASA's observational (e.g., mission and instrument) science teams. Having launched Obs4MIPs with these datasets, a broader effort is also briefly discussed, striving to engage other agencies and experts who maintain datasets, including reanalysis, which can be directly used to evaluate climate models. Different strategies for using satellite observations to evaluate climate models are also briefly summarized.


2017 ◽  
Vol 98 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-105 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. J. Stouffer ◽  
V. Eyring ◽  
G. A. Meehl ◽  
S. Bony ◽  
C. Senior ◽  
...  

Abstract The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is an ongoing coordinated international activity of numerical experimentation of unprecedented scope and impact on climate science. Its most recent phase, the fifth phase (CMIP5), has created nearly 2 PB of output from dozens of experiments performed by dozens of comprehensive climate models available to the climate science research community. In so doing, it has greatly advanced climate science. While CMIP5 has given answers to important science questions, with the help of a community survey we identify and motivate three broad topics here that guided the scientific framework of the next phase of CMIP, that is, CMIP6:How does the Earth system respond to changes in forcing?What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases?How can we assess future climate changes given internal climate variability, predictability, and uncertainties in scenarios? CMIP has demonstrated the power of idealized experiments to better understand how the climate system works. We expect that these idealized approaches will continue to contribute to CMIP6. The quantification of radiative forcings and responses was poor, and thus it requires new methods and experiments to address this gap. There are a number of systematic model biases that appear in all phases of CMIP that remain a major climate modeling challenge. These biases need increased attention to better understand their origins and consequences through targeted experiments. Improving understanding of the mechanisms’ underlying internal climate variability for more skillful decadal climate predictions and long-term projections remains another challenge for CMIP6.


Author(s):  
Anjuli S. Bamzai

In the years following the Second World War, the U.S. government played a prominent role in the support of basic scientific research. The National Science Foundation (NSF) was created in 1950 with the primary mission of supporting fundamental science and engineering, excluding medical sciences. Over the years, the NSF has operated from the “bottom up,” keeping close track of research around the United States and the world while maintaining constant contact with the research community to identify ever-moving horizons of inquiry. In the 1950s the field of meteorology was something of a poor cousin to the other branches of science; forecasting was considered more of trade than a discipline founded on sound theoretical foundations. Realizing the importance of the field to both the economy and national security, the NSF leadership made a concerted effort to enhance understanding of the global atmospheric circulation. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) was established to complement ongoing research efforts in academic institutions; it has played a pivotal role in providing observational and modeling tools to the emerging cadre of researchers in the disciplines of meteorology and atmospheric sciences. As understanding of the predictability of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system grew, the field of climate science emerged as a natural outgrowth of meteorology, oceanography, and atmospheric sciences. The NSF played a leading role in the implementation of major international programs such as the International Geophysical Year (IGY), the Global Weather Experiment, the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) and Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA). Through these programs, understanding of the coupled climate system comprising atmosphere, ocean, land, ice-sheet, and sea ice greatly improved. Consistent with its mission, the NSF supported projects that advanced fundamental knowledge of forcing and feedbacks in the coupled atmosphere-ocean-land system. Research projects have included theoretical, observational, and modeling studies of the following: the general circulation of the stratosphere and troposphere; the processes that govern climate; the causes of climate variability and change; methods of predicting climate variations; climate predictability; development and testing of parameterization of physical processes; numerical methods for use in large-scale climate models; the assembly and analysis of instrumental and/or modeled climate data; data assimilation studies; and the development and use of climate models to diagnose and simulate climate variability and change. Climate scientists work together on an array of topics spanning time scales from the seasonal to the centennial. The NSF also supports research on the natural evolution of the earth’s climate on geological time scales with the goal of providing a baseline for present variability and future trends. The development of paleoclimate data sets has resulted in longer term data for evaluation of model simulations, analogous to the evaluation using instrumental observations. This has enabled scientists to create transformative syntheses of paleoclimate data and modeling outcomes in order to understand the response of the longer-term and higher magnitude variability of the climate system that is observed in the geological records. The NSF will continue to address emerging issues in climate and earth-system science through balanced investments in transformative ideas, enabling infrastructure and major facilities to be developed.


Author(s):  
Weijia Qian ◽  
Howard H. Chang

Health impact assessments of future environmental exposures are routinely conducted to quantify population burdens associated with the changing climate. It is well-recognized that simulations from climate models need to be bias-corrected against observations to estimate future exposures. Quantile mapping (QM) is a technique that has gained popularity in climate science because of its focus on bias-correcting the entire exposure distribution. Even though improved bias-correction at the extreme tails of exposure may be particularly important for estimating health burdens, the application of QM in health impact projection has been limited. In this paper we describe and apply five QM methods to estimate excess emergency department (ED) visits due to projected changes in warm-season minimum temperature in Atlanta, USA. We utilized temperature projections from an ensemble of regional climate models in the North American-Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX). Across QM methods, we estimated consistent increase in ED visits across climate model ensemble under RCP 8.5 during the period 2050 to 2099. We found that QM methods can significantly reduce between-model variation in health impact projections (50–70% decreases in between-model standard deviation). Particularly, the quantile delta mapping approach had the largest reduction and is recommended also because of its ability to preserve model-projected absolute temporal changes in quantiles.


2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (7) ◽  
pp. 4451-4475 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilissa B. Ocko ◽  
Paul A. Ginoux

Abstract. Anthropogenic aerosols are a key factor governing Earth's climate and play a central role in human-caused climate change. However, because of aerosols' complex physical, optical, and dynamical properties, aerosols are one of the most uncertain aspects of climate modeling. Fortunately, aerosol measurement networks over the past few decades have led to the establishment of long-term observations for numerous locations worldwide. Further, the availability of datasets from several different measurement techniques (such as ground-based and satellite instruments) can help scientists increasingly improve modeling efforts. This study explores the value of evaluating several model-simulated aerosol properties with data from spatially collocated instruments. We compare aerosol optical depth (AOD; total, scattering, and absorption), single-scattering albedo (SSA), Ångström exponent (α), and extinction vertical profiles in two prominent global climate models (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, GFDL, CM2.1 and CM3) to seasonal observations from collocated instruments (AErosol RObotic NETwork, AERONET, and Cloud–Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization, CALIOP) at seven polluted and biomass burning regions worldwide. We find that a multi-parameter evaluation provides key insights on model biases, data from collocated instruments can reveal underlying aerosol-governing physics, column properties wash out important vertical distinctions, and improved models does not mean all aspects are improved. We conclude that it is important to make use of all available data (parameters and instruments) when evaluating aerosol properties derived by models.


2011 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 571-577 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. M. Haywood ◽  
H. J. Dowsett ◽  
M. M. Robinson ◽  
D. K. Stoll ◽  
A. M. Dolan ◽  
...  

Abstract. The Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project has expanded to include a model intercomparison for the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.29 to 2.97 million yr ago). This project is referred to as PlioMIP (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project). Two experiments have been agreed upon and together compose the initial phase of PlioMIP. The first (Experiment 1) is being performed with atmosphere-only climate models. The second (Experiment 2) utilises fully coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Following on from the publication of the experimental design and boundary conditions for Experiment 1 in Geoscientific Model Development, this paper provides the necessary description of differences and/or additions to the experimental design for Experiment 2.


2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Davide Zanchettin ◽  
Myriam Khodri ◽  
Claudia Timmreck ◽  
Matthew Toohey ◽  
Anja Schmidt ◽  
...  

Abstract. The enhancement of the stratospheric aerosol layer by volcanic eruptions induces a complex set of responses causing global and regional climate effects on a broad range of timescales. Uncertainties exist regarding the climatic response to strong volcanic forcing identified in coupled climate simulations that contributed to the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In order to better understand the sources of these model diversities, the model intercomparison project on the climate response to volcanic forcing (VolMIP) has defined a coordinated set of idealized volcanic perturbation experiments to be carried out in alignment with the CMIP6 protocol. VolMIP provides a common stratospheric aerosol dataset for each experiment to eliminate differences in the applied volcanic forcing, and defines a set of initial conditions to determine how internal climate variability contributes to determining the response. VolMIP will assess to what extent volcanically-forced responses of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system are robustly simulated by state-of-the-art coupled climate models and identify the causes that limit robust simulated behavior, especially differences in the treatment of physical processes. This paper illustrates the design of the idealized volcanic perturbation experiments in the VolMIP protocol and describes the common aerosol forcing input datasets to be used.


2015 ◽  
Vol 72 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Candra Irawan ◽  
Priyo Suprobo ◽  
I Gusti Putu Raka ◽  
Rudy Djamaluddin

Spun pile is one of the types of piles are widely used in the world construction, for example in building and bridge. Spun pile is a prestressed concrete pile with circular hollow section. This paper provides an overview of the research development of spun pile, starting from 80's until now. This overview is related to methods of increasing the strength and reliability of spun pile due to earthquake loads, either by modifying the longitudinal reinforcement and confinement. In addition, this paper also discusses about the failure patterns of spun pile due to seismic loads. Finally, this paper can be a reference for understanding the scope of the research topics that have been done by researchers. Thus, by this overview can be obtained new idea for the next research to improve the performance of spun pile carry seismic loads.


Author(s):  
V.M. Yevtushenko

The article is devoted to the study of the state and trends of the publishing activity of Ukrainian scientists and leading countries in the field of life sciences («Life sciences»). The Web of Science Core Collection (WoS CC), Journal Citation Report (JSR) and InCites, as well as classifications of scientific fields designed to structure the publication flow of scientific papers and journals in these information resources, are used for the research base – Web of Science Categories and Research Areas. The article presents the results of the author’s research on the publication indices of scientists of Ukraine and the leading countries of the world for the period 2008-2018 in the field of “Life Sciences” according to the international science-computer database of Web of Science. Conclusions about the growth of indicators of publication activity of scientific works in the field of “Life Sciences” are made. The tendency of a significant increase in their number in Ukraine has been revealed, but domestic studies do not represent all the areas of «Life Sciences» most popular in foreign scientists


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