scholarly journals Voting at National versus European Elections: An Individual Level Test of the Second Order Paradigm for the 2014 European Parliament Elections

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 130-144 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hajo G. Boomgaarden ◽  
David Johann ◽  
Sylvia Kritzinger
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
European Parliament ◽  
Second Order ◽  
Electoral Behavior ◽  
Macro Level ◽  
European Elections ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
European Parliament Elections

The second-order paradigm is the dominant framework for research on electoral behavior in European Parliament (EP) elections. In this study, we assess to what degree voting patterns in the 2014 EP election were characterized by second-orderness. While most studies of second-order voting behavior rely on macro-level accounts or suffer from potentially conflated vote measures, this study relies on panel data from the 2013 national and the 2014 EP election in Austria. We study change patterns in electoral behavior and, more importantly, assess the motives behind differences in vote choices between first- and second-order elections. Overall, the findings point towards a persisting relevance of the second-order framework for explaining voting in the 2014 EP election.

scholarly journals Do European elections enhance satisfaction with European Union democracy?

2020 ◽  
pp. 146511652097028
Author(s):  
Carolina Plescia ◽  
Jean-François Daoust ◽  
André Blais
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
National Identity ◽  
European Parliament ◽  
The European Union ◽  
European Elections ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Satisfaction With Democracy ◽  
Union Democracy ◽  
Important Message ◽  
European Parliament Elections

We provide the first individual-level test of whether holding supranational elections in the European Union fosters satisfaction with European Union democracy. First, we examine whether participation at the European Parliament election fosters satisfaction with democracy and whether, among those who participated, a winner–loser gap materializes at the EU level. Second, we examine under which conditions participating and winning in the election affect satisfaction with European Union democracy, focusing on the moderating role of exclusive national identity. Our approach relies on panel data collected during the 2019 European Parliament elections in eight countries. We demonstrate that while participating and winning increase satisfaction, such positive boost does not materialize among those with exclusive national identity. These findings hold an important message: elections are no cure to deep-seated alienation.

scholarly journals Political equality without social equality? Social distortion of voter turnout in the European elections 2019 across nine European capitals

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 205316802092815
Author(s):  
Stefan Haußner ◽  
Michael Kaeding
Keyword(s):  
Social Inequality ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
European Parliament ◽  
Second Order ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Political Equality ◽  
European Elections ◽  
The Social ◽  
European Parliament Elections

Although we know a lot about why citizens vote or abstain in elections, the social inequality of low turnout in European elections has attracted little attention. This paper focuses on voter turnout in the last 2019 European elections and examines whether low voter turnout in second-order elections is automatically associated with high social inequality, using Tingsten’s law as inspiration. By contrasting a second-order election with other high and low turnout elections, the paper deepens our understanding of the mechanisms behind low turnout in European elections. Following the argument that the macrolevel social imbalances of low turnout can best be analysed at the neighbourhood level, we develop a small-scale analysis of turnout across nine capitals of the European Union for the 2019 European Parliament (election and perform a regression model with interaction effects to examine the effects between different types of elections. Our results do not find differences in the effect of neighbourhoods’ social context on voter turnout between these elections. Although turnout in all cities is socially biased across all types of elections, jeopardising the ideal of political equality across Europe, we find no evidence that the 2019 European Parliament elections were more socially unequal than other elections – regardless of their second-order nature.

Not All ‘Second-Order’ Contests are the Same: Turnout and Party Choice at the Concurrent 2004 Local and European Parliament Elections in England

2005 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 584-597 ◽  
Author(s):  
Colin Rallings ◽  
Michael Thrasher
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Significant Contribution ◽  
European Parliament ◽  
Second Order ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
European Elections ◽  
Party Choice ◽  
European Parliament Elections ◽  
Sizeable Number ◽  
Level Analysis

The European Parliament elections in June 2004 coincided with local elections in many parts of England. In four regions of the country these elections were conducted entirely by postal ballots; in four other regions traditional methods of polling were used. Overall turnout was higher where all-postal voting was in place, but having local in addition to European elections made an independent and significant contribution to the level of electoral participation in all postal and non-postal regions alike. The pattern of party choice at the two types of contest also varied considerably. The three major political parties together took a much larger share of the overall vote at the local than at the European elections, and each independently ‘lost’ a sizeable number of its local votes to smaller parties. Aggregate level analysis suggests that voters assess the importance of electoral contests along a continuum and, in Britain in 2004 at least, treated local elections as less ‘second-order’ than pan-European ones.

Explaining Vote Switching Across First- and Second-Order Elections

2005 ◽  
Vol 38 (3) ◽  
pp. 260-281 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cliff Carrubba ◽  
Richard J. Timpone
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
European Parliament ◽  
Second Order ◽  
Policy Outcomes ◽  
European Context ◽  
European Parliament Elections ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Western Democracies

Across Western democracies, individuals frequently vote for different parties in different elections. A variety of explanations have been proposed for this behavior. In the European context, scholars have focused on the idea that individuals may vote for different parties because some elections are less important than others (i.e., are “second-order” elections). In the U.S. context, scholars have focused on the possibility that individuals might vote for different parties because they care about how the two chambers will affect policy outcomes. In this article, the authors test among four alternative motivations for vote switching, two predicated on the notion that individuals treat one of the elections as second-order and two predicated on the notion that individuals care about policy outcomes from both chambers. The tests are performed by analyzing Euro-barometer survey data on individual voting behavior in European national and European Parliament elections. The authors find support for all four motivations.

A Vote Against Europe? Explaining Defection at the 1999 and 2004 European Parliament Elections

2009 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara B. Hobolt ◽  
Jae-Jae Spoon ◽  
James Tilley
Keyword(s):  
Contextual Factors ◽  
European Parliament ◽  
Second Order ◽  
Government Performance ◽  
National Elections ◽  
European Elections ◽  
Level Model ◽  
Multi Level ◽  
European Parliament Elections

Governing parties generally win fewer votes at European Parliament elections than at national electionsmost common explanation for this is that European elections are ‘second order national elections’ acting as mid-term referendums on government performance. This article proposes an alternative, though complementary, explanation: voters defect because governing parties are generally far more pro-European than the typical voter. Additionally, the more the campaign context primes Eurosceptic sentiments, the more likely voters are to turn against governing parties. A multi-level model is used to test these propositions and analyse the effects of individual and contextual factors at the 1999 and 2004 European Parliament elections. Both European and domestic concerns matter to voters; moreover, campaign context plays an important role in shaping vote choices.

scholarly journals Individual-level factors influencing voter turnout in the 2014 European Parliament election

2019 ◽  
pp. 142-158
Author(s):  
Serhii Shapovalov
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Binary Logistic Regression ◽  
European Parliament ◽  
Second Order ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Theoretical Approaches ◽  
Logistic Regression Method ◽  
European Parliament Elections

The participation of EU citizens in the European Parliament elections is much lower than in the national elections and differs significantly across the EU member states. The articled is aimed at finding out the factors that influence the participation of EU citizens in the elections to the European Parliament. The study outlines the theoretical approaches to understanding the phenomenon of the European Parliament elections and the assumptions of researchers about the factors that may influence the electoral activity of citizens. According to second-order elections theory by Karlheinz Reif and Hermann Schmitt citizens perceive European Parliament elections as less important than national elections that results in lower participation. However, the behavior of voters may also be affected by a number of factors which may be regarded as individual-level motivations (trust in national and European authorities, attitudes towards EU institutions etc.). With use of binary logistic regression method it was defined which factors influenced the participation of citizens in the European Parliament election 2014 and explained the differences in the electoral activity of citizens of different EU countries. The nature of the identified factors that influence the participation of citizens in the elections to the European Parliament suggests that the second-order elections theory is still valid.

Testing the Second-Order Elections Model on the 2019 European Elections in Romania

2020 ◽  
Vol 65 (2) ◽  
pp. 359-374
Author(s):  
Nicoleta Lașan
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
European Parliament ◽  
Second Order ◽  
National Elections ◽  
European Elections ◽  
New Type ◽  
Treaty Of Rome ◽  
Direct Elections ◽  
European Parliament Elections

"The Treaty of Rome adopted in 1957 included provisions on the elections of the then European Parliamentary Assembly elections, but it took more than two decades for the members of the European Parliament to be directly elected. Immediately after the first direct elections of the European Parliament in 1979, the second-order elections model was conceived in order to understand the new type of supranational but less important elections. The model includes several hypotheses deriving from the idea that in the European elections there is less at stake, so instead of having genuine EU elections, in reality there are now 27 simultaneous national elections. The paper tests the second order elections to see whether its hypotheses are valid in the case of 2019 EU elections in Romania. Keywords: European Union, European Parliament, elections, Romania, 2019."

Testing the Second-Order Election Model after Four European Elections

1998 ◽  
Vol 28 (4) ◽  
pp. 591-607 ◽  
Author(s):  
MICHAEL MARSH
Keyword(s):  
European Parliament ◽  
National Election ◽  
Second Order ◽  
National Elections ◽  
European Elections ◽  
Clear Cut ◽  
Using Data ◽  
European Parliament Elections ◽  
Electoral Performance ◽  
The Impact

Reif and Schmitt argued that elections to the European Parliament should be understood as second-order national elections, and advanced several predictions about the results of such elections. Those concerning the impact of government status, party size, party character and the national election cycle on electoral performance are examined here using data on four sets of European Parliament elections. In addition, the consequences of European Parliament elections for the next national election are explored. The analysis demonstrates the validity of most of Reif and Schmitt's original propositions, and further refines their analysis of the relationship between European and subsequent national elections. However, all propositions hold much more effectively in countries where alternation in government is the norm, suggesting that the distinction between first-order and second-order elections may not be so clear cut as Reif and Schmitt imagined.

scholarly journals It All Happens at Once: Understanding Electoral Behaviour in Second-Order Elections

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 6-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hermann Schmitt ◽  
Alberto Sanz ◽  
Daniela Braun ◽  
Eftichia Teperoglou
Keyword(s):  
Second Order ◽  
European Elections ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
First Order ◽  
Election Result ◽  
Rigorous Test ◽  
European Election ◽  
Using Data ◽  
European Parliament Elections ◽  
Election Studies

The second-order election (SOE) model as originally formulated by Reif and Schmitt (1980) suggests that, relative to the preceding first-order election result, turnout is lower in SOEs, government and big parties lose, and small and ideologically extreme parties win. These regularities are not static but dynamic and related to the first-order electoral cycle. These predictions of the SOE model have often been tested using aggregate data. The fact that they are based on individual-level hypotheses has received less attention. The main aim of this article is to restate the micro-level hypotheses for the SOE model and run a rigorous test for the 2004 and 2014 European elections. Using data from the European Election Studies voter surveys, our analysis reveals signs of sincere, but also strategic abstentions in European Parliament elections. Both strategic and sincere motivations are also leading to SOE defection. It all happens at once.

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