The Productivity of Cascadia Aftershock Sequences

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joan Gomberg ◽  
Paul Bodin
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Subduction Zones ◽  
Geological Survey ◽  
Clear Correlation ◽  
Seismogenic Fault ◽  
Intermediate Depth ◽  
Aftershock Sequences ◽  
Intraslab Earthquake ◽  
Seismicity Rates ◽  
Background Seismicity

ABSTRACT This study addresses questions about the productivity of Cascadia mainshock–aftershock sequences using earthquake catalogs produced by the Geological Survey of Canada and the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network. Questions concern the likelihood that future moderate to large intermediate depth intraslab earthquakes in Cascadia would have as few detectable aftershocks as those documented since 1949. More broadly, for Cascadia, we consider if aftershock productivities vary spatially, if they are outliers among global subduction zones, and if they are consistent with a physical model in which aftershocks are clock-advanced versions of tectonically driven background seismicity. A practical motivation for this study is to assess the likely accuracy of aftershock forecasts based on productivities derived from global data that are now being issued routinely by the U.S. Geological Survey. For this reason, we estimated productivity following the identical procedures used in those forecasts and described in Page et al. (2016). Results indicate that in Cascadia we can say that the next intermediate depth intraslab earthquake will likely have just a few detectable aftershocks and that aftershock productivity appears to be an outlier among global subduction zones, with rates that on average are lower by more than half, except for mainshocks in the upper plate. Our results are consistent with a clock-advance model; productivities may be related to the proximity of mainshocks to a population of seismogenic fault patches and correlate with background seismicity rates. The latter and a clear correlation between productivities with mainshock depth indicate that both factors may have predictive value for aftershock forecasting.

The Productivity of Cascadia Aftershock Sequences

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joan Gomberg ◽  
Paul Bodin
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Subduction Zones ◽  
Geological Survey ◽  
Clear Correlation ◽  
Seismogenic Fault ◽  
Intermediate Depth ◽  
Aftershock Sequences ◽  
Intraslab Earthquake ◽  
Seismicity Rates ◽  
Background Seismicity

ABSTRACT This study addresses questions about the productivity of Cascadia mainshock–aftershock sequences using earthquake catalogs produced by the Geological Survey of Canada and the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network. Questions concern the likelihood that future moderate to large intermediate depth intraslab earthquakes in Cascadia would have as few detectable aftershocks as those documented since 1949. More broadly, for Cascadia, we consider if aftershock productivities vary spatially, if they are outliers among global subduction zones, and if they are consistent with a physical model in which aftershocks are clock-advanced versions of tectonically driven background seismicity. A practical motivation for this study is to assess the likely accuracy of aftershock forecasts based on productivities derived from global data that are now being issued routinely by the U.S. Geological Survey. For this reason, we estimated productivity following the identical procedures used in those forecasts and described in Page et al. (2016). Results indicate that in Cascadia we can say that the next intermediate depth intraslab earthquake will likely have just a few detectable aftershocks and that aftershock productivity appears to be an outlier among global subduction zones, with rates that on average are lower by more than half, except for mainshocks in the upper plate. Our results are consistent with a clock-advance model; productivities may be related to the proximity of mainshocks to a population of seismogenic fault patches and correlate with background seismicity rates. The latter and a clear correlation between productivities with mainshock depth indicate that both factors may have predictive value for aftershock forecasting.

scholarly journals Clustering characteristics of gas-extraction induced seismicity in the Groningen gas field

2020 ◽  
Vol 221 (2) ◽  
pp. 879-892
Author(s):  
A G Muntendam-Bos
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Method ◽  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Time And Space ◽  
Gas Field ◽  
Statistical Probability ◽  
Aftershock Sequences ◽  
Seismicity Rates ◽  
Background Seismicity ◽  
Intermediate Time ◽  
Groningen Gas Field

SUMMARY The Groningen gas field in the north of the Netherlands is one of the largest gas fields in the world. Since the early 1990s induced seismicity has been recorded. The largest magnitude event observed so far was a Mw = 3.6 event at the town of Huizinge in 2012. The risk posed by the induced events urged the necessity to build comprehensive seismological models capable of explaining the spatial-temporal distribution of the recorded seismicity and evaluating the regional seismic hazard and risk. The link between the occurrence of the seismicity and pressure depletion due to the production of the gas has been firmly established. However, the construction of comprehensive seismological models as well as hazard assessment is complicated by the fact that it is difficult to distinguish between induced and clustered events (events triggered by stress transfer of preceding, neighbouring events). This paper explores the contribution of clustered populations (i.e. aftershocks) to the Groningen induced seismic catalogue based on a statistical methodology in the time–space–magnitude domain. Specifically, the distributions of space–time distances between pairs of nearest-neighbour earthquakes, referred to as cluster style, is analysed. The cluster style of the Groningen induced seismicity is found to be very diffuse and characterized by a very low proportion of fore-/aftershock sequences and swarms (∼5 per cent) and a large proportion of repeater events (∼10 per cent). In contrast to human-induced seismicity in other regions, the background seismicity rate of Groningen is very low. Temporal variations in background seismicity rates can be related to changes in fault loading rates induced by gas production. Furthermore, a significant amount of independent, coincidental events (events occurring very close in time, but long distances apart) are observed. As the large gas field is fully connected, loading of the faults occurs roughly simultaneously throughout the field. Hence, the statistical probability of events occurring very close in time, but spatially far apart is significantly larger than in areas of fluid-injection induced seismicity The significant amount of repeaters and coincidental events cause an overabundance of events at intermediate time- and space-distances. This is further enhanced by the larger location errors in the catalogue increasing the estimated space-distance for non-relocated events. The diffusivity due to this overabundance of events at intermediate time- and space-distances, and the low-proportion of true fore-/aftershocks renders the statistical method used incapable of deriving a proper mode-separation value. However, this is not unique to this method. Any statistical method aimed at resolving two populations will break down if one of the populations analysed is too small. Hence, it is advisable to use caution when distinguishing fore-/aftershocks sequences or swarms for induced seismicity where the relative proportion of clustered events may be significantly lower than for tectonic events. In addition, given the small proportion of clustering and the general uncertainty in earthquake statistics, the results of this paper indicate that a distinction for earthquake risk modelling in Groningen is unnecessary.

scholarly journals The Oklahoma Geological Survey Statewide Seismic Network

2019 ◽  
Vol 91 (2A) ◽  
pp. 611-621 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacob I. Walter ◽  
Paul Ogwari ◽  
Andrew Thiel ◽  
Fernando Ferrer ◽  
Isaac Woelfel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
The State ◽  
Seismic Network ◽  
Geological Survey ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
State Parks ◽  
Traffic Light ◽  
Local Schools ◽  
Seismicity Rates ◽  
Background Seismicity

Abstract The Oklahoma Geological Survey (OGS) monitors seismicity throughout the state of Oklahoma utilizing permanent and temporary seismometers installed by OGS and other agencies, while producing a real-time earthquake catalog. The OGS seismic network was recently added to the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) as a self-supporting regional seismic network, and earthquake locations and magnitudes are automatically reported through U.S. Geological Survey and are part of the ANSS Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog. In Oklahoma, before 2009, background seismicity rates were about 2 M 3.0+ earthquakes per year, which increased to 579 and 903 M 3.0+ earthquakes in 2014 and 2015, respectively. After seismicity peaked, the rate fell to 624, 304, and 194 M 3.0+ earthquakes in 2016, 2017, and 2018, respectively. The catalog is complete down to M 2.2 from mid-2014 to present, despite the significant workload for a primarily state-funded regional network. That astonishing uptick in seismicity has been largely attributed to wastewater injection practices. The OGS provides the Oklahoma Corporation Commission, the agency responsible for regulating oil and gas activities within the state, with technical guidance and earthquake products that inform their “traffic-light” mitigation protocol and other mitigating actions. We have initiated a citizen-scientist-driven, educational seismometer program by installing Raspberry Shake geophones throughout the state at local schools, museums, libraries, and state parks. The seismic hazard of the state portends a continued need for expansion and densification of seismic monitoring throughout Oklahoma.

The effect of temperature-dependent thermal parameters in thermal models of subduction zones

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iris van Zelst ◽  
Timothy J. Craig ◽  
Cedric Thieulot
Keyword(s):  
Subduction Zones ◽  
Thermal Parameters ◽  
Dislocation Creep ◽  
Seismogenic Zone ◽  
Effect Of Temperature ◽  
Temperature Dependent ◽  
Thermal Models ◽  
Intermediate Depth ◽  
Dehydration Reactions ◽  
Model Setup

<p>The thermal structure of subduction zones plays an important role in the seismicity that occurs there with e.g., the downdip limit of the seismogenic zone associated with particular isotherms (350 °C - 450 °C) and intermediate-depth seismicity linked to dehydration reactions that occur at specific temperatures and pressures. Therefore, accurate thermal models of subduction zones that include the complexities found in laboratory studies are necessary. One of the often-ignored effects in models is the temperature-dependence of the thermal parameters such as the thermal conductivity, heat capacity, and density.<span> </span></p><p>Here, we build upon the model setup presented by Van Keken et al., 2008 by including temperature-dependent thermal parameters to an otherwise clearly constrained, simple model setup of a subducting plate. We consider a fixed kinematic slab dipping at 45° and a stationary overriding plate with a dynamic mantle wedge. Such a simple setup allows us to isolate the effect of temperature-dependent thermal parameters. We add a more complex plate cooling model for the oceanic plate for consistency with the thermal parameters.<span> </span></p><p>We test the effect of temperature-dependent thermal parameters on models with different rheologies, such as an isoviscous wedge, diffusion and dislocation creep. We find that slab temperatures can change by up to 65 °C which affects the location of isotherm depths. The downdip limit of the seismogenic zone defined by e.g., the 350 °C isotherm shifts by approximately 4 km, thereby increasing the maximum possible rupture area of the seismogenic zone. Similarly, the 600 °C isotherm is shifted approximately 30 km deeper, affecting the depth at which dehydration reactions and hence intermediate-depth seismicity occurs. Our results therefore show that temperature-dependent thermal parameters in thermal models of subduction zones cannot be ignored when studying subduction-related seismicity.<span> </span></p>

Seismic moment catalog of large shallow earthquakes, 1900 to 1989

1992 ◽  
Vol 82 (3) ◽  
pp. 1306-1349 ◽  
Author(s):  
Javier F. Pacheco ◽  
Lynn R. Sykes
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Moment ◽  
Subduction Zones ◽  
B Value ◽  
Reference List ◽  
Transform Faults ◽  
Shallow Earthquakes ◽  
Seismicity Rates ◽  
Chile Earthquake ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Earthquake Process

Abstract We compile a worldwide catalog of shallow (depth < 70 km) and large (Ms ≥ 7) earthquakes recorded between 1900 and 1989. The catalog is shown to be complete and uniform at the 20-sec surface-wave magnitude Ms ≥ 7.0. We base our catalog on those of Abe (1981, 1984) and Abe and Noguchi (1983a, b) for events with Ms ≥ 7.0. Those catalogs, however, are not homogeneous in seismicity rates for the entire 90-year period. We assume that global rates of seismicity are constant on a time scale of decades and most inhomogeneities arise from changes in instrumentation and/or reporting. We correct the magnitudes to produce a homogeneous catalog. The catalog is accompanied by a reference list for all the events with seismic moment determined at periods longer than 20 sec. Using these seismic moments for great and giant earthquakes and a moment-magnitude relationship for smaller events, we produce a seismic moment catalog for large earthquakes from 1900 to 1989. The catalog is used to study the distribution of moment released worldwide. Although we assumed a constant rate of seismicity on a global basis, the rate of moment release has not been constant for the 90-year period because the latter is dominated by the few largest earthquakes. We find that the seismic moment released at subduction zones during this century constitutes 90% of all the moment released by large, shallow earthquakes on a global basis. The seismic moment released in the largest event that occurred during this century, the 1960 southern Chile earthquake, represents about 30 to 45% of the total moment released from 1900 through 1989. A frequency-size distribution of earthquakes with seismic moment yields an average slope (b value) that changes from 1.04 for magnitudes between 7.0 and 7.5 to b = 1.51 for magnitudes between 7.6 and 8.0. This change in the b value is attributed to different scaling relationships between bounded (large) and unbounded (small) earthquakes. Thus, the earthquake process does have a characteristic length scale that is set by the downdip width over which rupture in earthquakes can occur. That width is typically greater for thrust events at subduction zones than for earthquakes along transform faults and other tectonic environments.

Background Seismicity before and after the 1976 Ms 7.8 Tangshan Earthquake: Is Its Aftershock Sequence Still Continuing?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yue Liu ◽  
Jiancang Zhuang ◽  
Changsheng Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Tangshan Earthquake ◽  
Aftershock Activity ◽  
Background Rate ◽  
Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Aftershock Sequences ◽  
Background Seismicity ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Large Earthquakes ◽  
Current Stage

Abstract The aftershock zone of the 1976 Ms 7.8 Tangshan, China, earthquake remains seismically active, experiencing moderate events such as the 5 December 2019 Ms 4.5 Fengnan event. It is still debated whether aftershock sequences following large earthquakes in low-seismicity continental regions can persist for several centuries. To understand the current stage of the Tangshan aftershock sequence, we analyze the sequence record and separate background seismicity from the triggering effect using a finite-source epidemic-type aftershock sequence model. Our results show that the background rate notably decreases after the mainshock. The estimated probability that the most recent 5 December 2019 Ms 4.5 Fengnan District, Tangshan, earthquake is a background event is 50.6%. This indicates that the contemporary seismicity in the Tangshan aftershock zone can be characterized as a transition from aftershock activity to background seismicity. Although the aftershock sequence is still active in the Tangshan region, it is overridden by background seismicity.

Antigorite deformation and dehydration-induced compaction

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolas Brantut ◽  
Emmanuel David ◽  
Lars Hansen ◽  
Greg Hirth ◽  
Jean Sulem ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Low Temperature ◽  
Subduction Zones ◽  
Laboratory Data ◽  
Fluid Pressure ◽  
Elevated Pressure ◽  
Dislocation Creep ◽  
Slip Systems ◽  
Intermediate Depth ◽  
Frictional Slip ◽  
Recent Laboratory

<p>Antigorite is a key constituent of subducted slabs, and its dehydration is thought to be responsible for the generation of intermediate-depth earthquakes. The mechanical behaviour of antigorite at elevated pressure and temperature remains difficult to constrain experimentally: intracrystalline slip systems are hard to activate under typical laboratory timescales and microstructures do not always provide unambiguous evidence for dislocation creep. Here, we present recent laboratory data showing that antigorite might deform due to intracrystalline frictional slip and delamination, at least in the low temperature regime (<400°C). This behaviour is typical of the semi-brittle regime. Based on a time-independent rheology including friction and potential compaction at elevated pressure, we formulate a model for coupled deformation and dehydration of antigorite. We show that a pore pressure and compaction localisation instability can develop when the net volume change associated with the reaction is negative, i.e., at intermediate depth in subduction zones. Unstable compaction and fluid pressure build-up may provide a mechanism for the nucleation of intermediate-depth earthquakes.</p>

Seismotectonics of intermediate-depth earthquakes from properties of aftershock sequences

1991 ◽  
Vol 197 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-40 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Kisslinger ◽  
A. Hasegawa
Keyword(s):  
Intermediate Depth ◽  
Aftershock Sequences
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