scholarly journals AgMIP Regional Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Systems in Nioro, Senegal

2022 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ibrahima Hathie ◽  
Dilys MacCarthy ◽  
Bright Freduah ◽  
Mouhamed Ly ◽  
Ahmadou Ly ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Agricultural System ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Agricultural Systems ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Improvement Project

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) developed protocol-based methods for Regional Integrated Assessment (RIA) of agricultural systems. These methods have been applied by teams of scientists working with regional and national stakeholders across Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. This paper describes the data sets that were used to implement the AgMIP RIA methods for the Nioro region of Senegal. The goal of the RIA is to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the principal agricultural system in the Senegal peanut basin comprised of peanut, millet, maize and other minor crops and livestock, and to assess adaptations of that system to climate change, under current as well as future climate and socio-economic conditions. The data sets include: the Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) developed for Nioro from 2000-2050; climate data used to implement crop yield simulations; the data used to parameterize the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) and the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop models, which include historical climate data and future climate scenarios; and the data used to parameterize the Tradeoff Analysis Model for Multi-dimensional Impact Assessment (TOA-MD) economic simulation model. The analysis is structured around four AgMIP “core questions'' of climate impact assessment.

scholarly journals Assessing Effects of Variation in Global Climate Data Sets on Spatial Predictions from Climate Envelope Models

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 14-25 ◽  
Author(s):  
James I. Watling ◽  
Robert J. Fletcher ◽  
Carolina Speroterra ◽  
David N. Bucklin ◽  
Laura A. Brandt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Cohen’S Kappa ◽  
Cohen's Kappa ◽  
Climate Envelope ◽  
Contemporary Climate

Abstract Climate change poses new challenges for natural resource managers. Predictive modeling of species–environment relationships using climate envelope models can enhance our understanding of climate change effects on biodiversity, assist in assessment of invasion risk by exotic organisms, and inform life-history understanding of individual species. While increasing interest has focused on the role of uncertainty in future conditions on model predictions, models also may be sensitive to the initial conditions on which they are trained. Although climate envelope models are usually trained using data on contemporary climate, we lack systematic comparisons of model performance and predictions across alternative climate data sets available for model training. Here, we seek to fill that gap by comparing variability in predictions between two contemporary climate data sets to variability in spatial predictions among three alternative projections of future climate. Overall, correlations between monthly temperature and precipitation variables were very high for both contemporary and future data. Model performance varied across algorithms, but not between two alternative contemporary climate data sets. Spatial predictions varied more among alternative general-circulation models describing future climate conditions than between contemporary climate data sets. However, we did find that climate envelope models with low Cohen's kappa scores made more discrepant spatial predictions between climate data sets for the contemporary period than did models with high Cohen's kappa scores. We suggest conservation planners evaluate multiple performance metrics and be aware of the importance of differences in initial conditions for spatial predictions from climate envelope models.

scholarly journals An Ecosystem-Based Approach to Climate-Smart Agriculture with Some Considerations for Social Equity

Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 1564
Author(s):  
Kofi Akamani
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Ecosystem Management ◽  
Social Equity ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Management Approach ◽  
Agricultural System ◽  
Illustrative Case ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Smart Agriculture

Although the transition to industrial agriculture in the 20th century resulted in increased agricultural productivity and efficiency, the attainment of global food security continues to be elusive. Current and anticipated impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector are likely to exacerbate the incidence of food insecurity. In recent years, climate-smart agriculture has gained recognition as a mechanism that has the potential to contribute to the attainment of food security and also enhance climate change mitigation and adaptation. However, several conceptual and implementation shortfalls have limited the widespread adoption of this innovative agricultural system at the landscape scale. This manuscript argues for the use of ecosystem management as an overarching framework for the conceptualization and implementation of climate-smart agriculture. The manuscript focuses on clarifying the foundational assumptions and management goals, as well as the knowledge and institutional requirements of climate-smart agriculture using the principles of ecosystem management. Potential challenges that may be faced by the application of an ecosystem management approach to climate-smart agriculture are also discussed. Furthermore, the manuscript calls for a heightened focus on social equity in the transition toward an ecosystem-based approach to climate-smart agriculture. The US farm bill is used as an illustrative case study along with other examples drawn mostly from sub-Saharan Africa.

scholarly journals Simulation of future climate scenarios and the impact on the water availability in southern Brazil

2021 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
pp. e56026
Author(s):  
Gabriela Leite Neves ◽  
Jorim Sousa das Virgens Filho ◽  
Maysa de Lima Leite ◽  
Frederico Fabio Mauad
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Southern Brazil ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The Impact

Water is an essential natural resource that is being impacted by climate change. Thus, knowledge of future water availability conditions around the globe becomes necessary. Based on that, this study aimed to simulate future climate scenarios and evaluate the impact on water balance in southern Brazil. Daily data of rainfall and air temperature (maximum and minimum) were used. The meteorological data were collected in 28 locations over 30 years (1980-2009). For the data simulation, we used the climate data stochastic generator PGECLIMA_R. It was considered two scenarios of the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a scenario with the historical data trend. The water balance estimates were performed for the current data and the simulated data, through the methodology of Thornthwaite and Mather (1955). The moisture indexes were spatialized by the kriging method. These indexes were chosen as the parameters to represent the water conditions in different situations. The region assessed presented a high variability in water availability among locations; however, it did not present high water deficiency values, even with climate change. Overall, it was observed a reduction of moisture index in most sites and in all scenarios assessed, especially in the northern region when compared to the other regions. The second scenario of the IPCC (the worst situation) promoting higher reductions and dry conditions for the 2099 year. The impacts of climate change on water availability, identified in this study, can affect the general society, therefore, they must be considered in the planning and management of water resources, especially in the regional context

Risk-based climate-change impact assessment for the water industry

2009 ◽  
Vol 59 (3) ◽  
pp. 443-451 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. M. Thorne ◽  
R. A. Fenner
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Water Industry ◽  
Climate Change Impact Assessment ◽  
Change Impact

In response to a rapidly changing and highly variable climate, engineers are being asked to perform climate-change impact assessments on existing water industry systems. There is currently no single method of best practice for engineers to interpret output from global climate models (GCMs) and calculate probabilistic distributions of future climate changes as required for risk-based impact assessments. The simplified climate change impact assessment tool (SCIAT) has been developed to address the specific needs of the water industry and provides a tool to translate climate change projections into ‘real world’ impacts or for detailed statistical analysis. Through the use of SCIAT, water system operators are provided with knowledge of potential impacts and an associated probability of occurrence, enabling them to make informed, risk-based adaptation and planning decisions. This paper demonstrates the application of SCIAT to the consideration of the impacts of climate change on reservoir water quality under future climate scenarios.

scholarly journals Perceptions of Present and Future Climate Change Impacts on Water Availability for Agricultural Systems in the Western Mediterranean Region

Water ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (11) ◽  
pp. 523 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thi Nguyen ◽  
Laura Mula ◽  
Raffaele Cortignani ◽  
Giovanna Seddaiu ◽  
Gabriele Dono ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Mediterranean Region ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Western Mediterranean ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Systems

Projecting future vegetation change for northeast China using CMIP6

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Yuan ◽  
Shuang-ye Wu ◽  
Shugui Hou
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Vegetation Change ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Vegetation Changes ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

<p>This study aims to establish future vegetation changes in the east and central of northern China (ECNC), an ecologically sensitive region in the transition zonal from humid monsoonal to arid continental climate. The region has experienced significant greening in the past several decades. However, few studies exist on how vegetation will change with future climate change, and great uncertainties exist due to complex, and often spatially non-stationary, relationships between vegetation and climate. In this study, we first used historical NDVI and climate data to model this spatially variable relationship with Geographically Weighted Logit Regression. We found that temperature and precipitation could explain, on average, 43% of NDVI variance, and they could be used to model NDVI fairly well. We then establish future climate change using the output of 11 CMIP6 models for the medium (SSP245) and high (SSP585) emission scenarios for the mid-century (2041-2070) and late-century (2071-2100). The results show that for this region, both temperature and precipitation will increase under both scenarios. By late-century under SSP585, precipitation is projected to increase by 25.12% and temperature is projected to increase 5.87<sup>o</sup>C in ECNC. Finally, we used future climate conditions as input for the regression models to project future vegetation (indicated by NDVI). We found that NDVI will increase under climate change. By mid-century, the average NDVI in ECNC will increase by 0.024 and 0.021 under SSP245 and SSP585. By late-century, it will increase by 0.016 and 0.006 under SSP245 and SSP585 respectively. Although NDVI is projected to increase, the magnitude of increase is likely to diminish with higher emission scenarios, possibly due to the benefit of precipitation increase being gradually encroached by the detrimental effects of temperature increase. Moreover, despite the overall NDVI increase, the area likely to suffer vegetation degradation will also expands, particularly in the western part of ECNC. With higher emissions and later into the century, region with low NDVI is likely to shift and/or expand north-forward. Our results could provide important information on possible vegetation changes, which could help to develop effective management strategies to ensure ecological and economic sustainability in the future.</p>

scholarly journals Impacts of future climate change on potential yields of major crops in China

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 617-647
Author(s):  
Y. Yin ◽  
Q. Tang ◽  
X. Liu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Yield Reduction ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Potential Yield ◽  
Crop Models

Abstract. Climate change may affect crop development and yield, and consequently cast a shadow of doubt over China's food self-sufficiency efforts. In this study we used the model projections of a couple of global gridded crop models (GGCMs) to assess the effects of future climate change on the potential yields of the major crops (i.e. wheat, rice, maize and soybean) over China. The GGCMs were forced with the bias-corrected climate data from 5 global climate models (GCMs) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 which were made available by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). The results show that the potential yields of rice may increase over a large portion of China. Climate change may benefit food productions over the high-altitude and cold regions where are outside current main agricultural area. However, the potential yield of maize, soybean and wheat may decrease in a large portion of the current main crop planting areas such as North China Plain. Development of new agronomic management strategy may be useful for coping with climate change in the areas with high risk of yield reduction.

scholarly journals Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures for Maize Production in East Sikkim, India

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-27
Author(s):  
Proloy Deb ◽  
S. Babel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Maize Yield ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Yield Response ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
North East ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

An investigation was carried out to assess the impacts of climate change on rainfed maize yield using a yield response to water stress model (AquaCrop) and to identify suitable adaptation options to minimize the negative impacts on maize yield in East Sikkim, North East India. Crop management and yield data was collected from the field experimental plots for calibration and validation of the model for the study area. The future climate data was developed for two IPCC emission scenarios A2 and B2 based on the global climate model HadCM3 with downscaling of climate to finer spatial resolution using the statistical downscaling model, SDSM. The impact study revealed that there is an expected reduction in maize yield of 12.8, 28.3 and 33.9% for the A2 scenario and 7.5, 19.9 and 29.9% for the B2 scenario during 2012-40, 2041-70 and 2071-99 respectively compared to the average yield simulated during the period of 1961-1990 with observed climate data. The maize yield of same variety under future climate can be maintained or improved from current level by changing planting dates, providing supplement irrigation and managing optimum nutrient.Journal of Hydrology and Meteorology, Vol. 9(1) 2015, p.15-27

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