scholarly journals DEMAND FACTORS FOR BANKING LOANS IN UKRAINE: MODELING AND ASSESSMENT

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (36) ◽  
pp. 46-56
Author(s):  
S. Hlushchenko ◽  
V. Shportyuk
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
State Regulation ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Practical Application ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
Business Entities ◽  
Over Time

The article presents the results of modeling and assessment of the effects of demand factors for banking loans by business entities and households on the volume of bank loaning in Ukraine. The article summarizes the factors influencing on volume of banking loans according to the demand side of business entities and households; performed modeling based on statistical data for Ukrainian practice in the period from 2006 to 2020. The authors developed a VAR-model for estimating the factors influencing the banking loans demand by business entities. According to the constructed model, it is concluded that the change in demand for credit resources by business entities is due to changes in interest rates (by 30%), changes in industrial production index (15.6%), changes in PFTS index 10.7%), change in the price index of industrial producers (1.0%), change in themselves over time (42.5%). The authors also developed a VAR-model for estimating the factors influencing the banking loans demand from households. According to the constructed model, it is concluded that the change in demand for credit resources by households is due to changes in average wages (16.2%), changes in interest rates (16%), changes in expenditures (8.2%), changes in GDP (7.7%), the consumer price index (6.9%), the change in the number of registered unemployed (2.9%) and the change in themselves over time (42.1%). The obtained results can have practical application both within the formation of banking loan policy and within state regulation measures to influence the activation of the credit sector in the country.

Regional Consumer Price Differences Within Germany

2010 ◽  
Vol 230 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Linz
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Sufficient Information ◽  
Price Development ◽  
Price Data ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Information Demand ◽  
Price Comparisons ◽  
Over Time

SummaryEvery month the Consumer Price Index for Germany (CPI) provides comprehensive and detailed information regarding the price development over time. However, when differences in the price level across regions in Germany have to be analysed at a given point in time, sufficient information is not available at present.Interest in regional consumer price data is shown by both scientists and policy makers. Currently, this information demand is not met as regional consumer prices or regional price comparisons are not provided by the Federal Statistical Office in Germany.Data available from the German Consumer Price Index is suitable to follow the price development over time but cannot be used directly to compare price levels of different regions because the goods tracked may be different from region to region.The article first considers the information demand and gives an overview of existing price data. Its main part refers to an empirical study which was conducted to check if existing Consumer Price Index data can be used to calculate regional consumer price comparisons by ex-post selecting comparable products.

scholarly journals Analysis of Effect Macro Variable on International Trade of Indonesia

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 228
Author(s):  
Evania Rahma Octavia ◽  
Dwi Wulandari
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Macro Variables

This study aims to determine the effect of macro variables which include Indonesia's real gross domestic income, money supply, consumer price index and interest rates on international trade mediated by the exchange rate of rupiah against the dollar. This type of research is descriptive research with quantitative approach. Determination of the sample based on quarterly time series data 2010-2014. This study uses path analysis. The results showed domestic gross product, the money supply, and interest rates together  have a significant effect on the exchange rate but the consumer price index do not have significant effect on the exchange rate. The results also show that the exchange rate has no significant effect on imports and exports. 

scholarly journals The relationship between M3 and consumer price index in the Czech Republic

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (10) ◽  
pp. 226-236
Author(s):  
Libena Cernohorska
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Monetary Aggregate ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Cointegration Relationship

This paper aimed at analysing the influence of monetary aggregate M3 on consumer price index (CPI) in the Czech Republic. Cointegrating this selected indicator M3 is demonstrated in relation to the development of CPI using the Engle – Granger cointegration test. These tests are applied to selected statistical data from the years 2003 to 2016. After using the Akaike criteria for all-time series, we analysed a unit root using the Dickey–Fuller test. If the time series are non-stacionary, testing is then continued with the Engle–Granger test to detect cointegration relations. Based on these tests, it is found that at a significance level of 0.05, a cointegration relationship between M3 and CPI in the Czech Republic does not exist. Conclusions resulting from the verification of the hypotheses are supported with graphical visualisation of data from which it is apparent that these hypotheses can be rejected. Keywords: M3; Czech Republic ; CPI ; Akaike criteria

Observed retail price of Australia’s market-leading cigarette brand before and up to 3 years after the implementation of plain packaging

2018 ◽  
Vol 28 (e2) ◽  
pp. e86-e91 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sam Egger ◽  
Suzan Burton ◽  
Rebecca Ireland ◽  
Scott C Walsberger
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Retail Price ◽  
Plain Packaging ◽  
Cigarette Brand ◽  
Retail Outlets ◽  
Change In Mean ◽  
Generalised Estimating Equations ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Cigarette Prices

ObjectiveDespite claims by tobacco companies that plain packaging would lead to lower cigarette prices, recommended and observed real cigarette prices in Australia rose in the 9–11 months after plain packaging was introduced. However, little is known about trends in prices longer term. In this report, we assess whether inflation (Consumer Price Index; CPI) and tax adjusted (‘CPI-tax-adjusted’) prices of the market-leading Australian cigarette brand changed in the 3-year period after plain packaging, and whether price changes were associated with retailer characteristics.MethodCigarette prices were ascertained from a panel of tobacco retailers at three time points: (1) in November 2012 (n=857) (before full implementation of plain packaging, compulsory in retail outlets from December 2012), (2) between October 2014 and February 2015 (n=789) and (3) between November 2015 and March 2016 (n=579). Generalised estimating equations were used to estimate percentage change in mean CPI/tax-adjusted cigarette prices over time.ResultsCPI/tax-adjusted adjusted mean stick prices rose by 13.7% (95% CI 13.0 to 16.0) and 15.2% (95% CI 14.3 to 16.0) at 2.1 and 3.1 years after plain packaging was introduced, respectively. Increases in mean CPI/tax-adjusted stick prices varied by outlet type (p<0.001), socioeconomic status (p=0.013) and remoteness of retailer’s area (p=0.028) and whether twin packs were sold (p=0.009).ConclusionsContrary to tobacco company predictions of a fall in prices, the price of the market-leading Australian cigarette brand increased significantly in the 3 years after plain packaging was introduced, and these increases were above the combined effects of inflation and increases in excise/customs duty.

scholarly journals US Stock Market And Macroeconomic Factors

2015 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 325 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco Jareño ◽  
Loredana Negrut
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Significant Relationships ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Relevant Factors

<p>This paper analyzes the relationship between the US stock market and some relevant US macroeconomic factors, such as gross domestic product, the consumer price index, the industrial production index, the unemployment rate and long-term interest rates. All the relevant factors show statistically significant relationships with the stock market except for the consumer price index, and the signs are consistent with the findings of previous literature.</p>

scholarly journals Problem Credit Debt of Ukrainian Banks: Current Status and Ways to overcome it

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-43
Author(s):  
Nelia Volkova ◽  
◽  
Diana Vinhora ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Credit System ◽  
Current State ◽  
Business Entities ◽  
Domestic Banks ◽  
Banking Institution

Introduction. The article is devoted to the study of problem about credit indebtedness of Ukrainian banks at the present stage and to identifying ways to overcome it. The article analyzes the loan portfolio of Ukrainian banks during 2014-2020. For the last five years, the banking system of Ukraine has been developing in the conditions of military conflict and permanent political and economic crisis. After the occupation of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and certain regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, domestic commercial banks lost part of their assets that remained in the occupied territories. These events forced the National Bank of Ukraine to take measures to stabilize the credit system, which led to the withdrawal of a large number of insolvent banks from the market. Purpose. The purpose of the study is to analyze the current state of credit debt problem of Ukrainian banks and to identify ways to neutralize it. Results. Based on statistical data, the dynamics of individual assets of Ukrainian banks, characterized by the discount rate as the main deterrent to lending, certain factors influencing the emergence of problem loans in a banking institution. Statistical data on the volume of lending to banking institutions by business entities and individuals in Ukraine are presented and analyzed. Based on the analysis, the main factors of increasing creditworthiness are investigated. Based on world experience, we offer ways to overcome the problematic team of domestic banks in the rear stabilization of the credit system. Conclusions. The conducted research confirmed the theoretical expediency and practical significance of the analysis of the current state of credit indebtedness problem of Ukrainian banks, which allows to determine the ways of its neutralization. The assessment of some indicators of banks’ activity revealed a number of factors that negatively affect the work with problem loans, namely: reduction in the number of banks (in particular, banks with foreign capital), reduction in lending, which is directly related to rising interest rates on loans, real incomes, the devaluation of the national currency and more. Each bank must develop a set of measures applicable to a particular category of problem loans, work out algorithms for the interaction of units in the event of certain signs, options for behavior depending on the degree of effectiveness of the measures applied. Implementation of the proposed banks in practice measures to reduce bad debts will be the subject of our further study.

scholarly journals The Relationship between the Exchange Rate, Interest Rate and Inflation: The Case of Turkey

2020 ◽  
Vol 67 (2) ◽  
pp. 259-275
Author(s):  
Ercan Özen ◽  
Letife Özdemir ◽  
Simon Grima
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Producer Price ◽  
United States Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate

The purpose of the study is to measure the effects of changes in exchange rates and interest rates on inflation and to determine which of the exchange rates or interest rates has a greater impact on inflation rate following the July 15, 2016 coup attempt in Turkey. Our expectation is that similar to most authors is to find that there is a long-term relationship between the inflation rates and both the exchange rate and interest rates and that the effect of the exchange rate on the Producer Price Index (PPI) is greater than that of the interest rates. Moreover, we expect to find a unidirectional causality relationship between the Interest Rate of Commercial Banks Credit (IRBC), Over Night Interest Rate (O/N) and United States Dollar (USD) and the PPI, but not between the IRBC, O/N, USD and the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

scholarly journals The asymmetric responses of stock prices in US market

2021 ◽  
Vol 36 ◽  
pp. 01013
Author(s):  
Woan Lin Beh ◽  
Wen Khang Yew
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
The United States ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Dow Jones Industrial Average ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Average Index

Machine learning and data analytics are so popular in making trading much more efficient by helping the investors to identify opportunities and reduce trading costs. Before applying suitable predictive modelling algorithms, it is crucial for investors or policymaker to understand the nature of the stock data properly. This paper investigates the dependency of macroeconomic factors against the stock markets in the United States using the nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach. The analysis considered the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, NASDAQ Composite Index, and S&P 500 Index. Macroeconomic factors in this country such as consumer price index, export, interest rates, money supply, real effective exchange rates, total reserves, and gold price are considered in this study. In the findings, the NARDL approach shows that the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index and S&P500 Index are having bi-directional positive asymmetric effects to each other in the short run. In short-run, increasing the consumer price index is found to have a negative effect on Dow Jones Industrial Average Index but with a positive effect on S&P500 Index. In conclusion, this study aids investors and other market participants in making a more efficient investment decision.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document