scholarly journals A Long Run ARDL Investigation of Manufacturing Adjustment to the Services Economy in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 95-107
Author(s):  
Olumuyiwa Olamade
Keyword(s):  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Business Services ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Services Sector ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run

The long-run equilibrating relationship between the value-added growth of services and manufacturing is investigated in this research. The study is based on the well-established empirical link between manufacturing and service activities, and in particular, manufacturing's servicification. The selected variables' annualized time series were obtained from the World Development Indicators. The paper used the autoregressive distributed lag framework to regress manufacturing value-added growth against service value-added growth while accounting for economic growth, factor input growth, and trade effects. The findings revealed that in Nigeria, a strong performing services sector has a large negative impact on manufacturing performance, whereas capital accumulation and income growth have positive effects. The supply constraint of business services that the manufacturing sector requires is at the root of this finding. The paper advocates for policy frameworks that support the efficient supply of business services as both a manufacturing input and a productivity enhancer for the entire economy.

scholarly journals Does Climate Change Have Real Negative Impact on Economic Growth in Poor Countries? Evidence from Cote d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast)

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 204
Author(s):  
Felix Fofana N’Zué ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Poor Countries ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Growth Change ◽  
The Impact

The objective of this paper is to determine the impact of climate change on Cote d’Ivoire’s economic performance via per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth, change in agricultural value added, and change in the country’s cereal yield. The data ranged from 1960 to 2016. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is used to investigate the long run dynamics between climate variables (precipitation and temperature) and the country’s per capita GDP, agricultural value added as % of GDP, and cereal yield. We found that climate change has not significantly impacted the economic performance of the country. However, precipitation has been found to have positively and significantly influenced the country’s cereal yield and agricultural value added contribution to GDP at large, and thus there is no need to worry more than it is necessary.

Industrial development and unemployment in Nigeria: an ARDL bounds testing approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-96
Author(s):  
Omobola Adu ◽  
Oghogho Edosomwan ◽  
Abiola Ayopo Babajide ◽  
Felicia Olokoyo
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Development ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Services Sector ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Lag Model

Purpose The industrial sector has been identified as one of the means to address the issue of unemployment due to its role in ensuring sustainable development. However, evidence from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin reveals that the sector lags behind the agricultural and services sector in terms of its contribution to the gross domestic product. In light of this, the purpose of this paper is to ascertain whether the industrial sector development is a veritable tool in addressing the issue of unemployment in the long run for the Nigerian economy. Design/methodology/approach In order to determine whether industrial development is a veritable tool in addressing the issue of unemployment in the long run, the study makes use of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model. The choice of this method over the commonly used Johansen co-integration approach is that it provides the mechanism to estimate the model in the presence of different order of integration among the macroeconomic variables; it allows us to combine and I(0) and I(1) series, while there is strict assumption of I(1) for all variables under the Johansen approach. Findings The major finding of the paper is that an inverse and elastic relationship exists between industrial output and unemployment. This suggests that the unemployment rate is very sensitive to changes in the industrial sector in Nigeria. Research limitations/implications The major limitation is the availability of recent data to capture recent happenings in the Nigerian economy. Originality/value The paper considers the entire sector encompassed in the industrial sector as opposed to focusing on just the manufacturing sector.

An Empirical Investigation of Global Production Networks in Indian Manufacturing Sector

2021 ◽  
pp. 001946622110624
Author(s):  
Vaibhav Sinha ◽  
Balaga Mohana Rao
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Production Networks ◽  
Global Production Networks ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This article attempts to dive into the operation of global production networks in India with manufacturing sector in the primary scope of focus. It aims to analyse the long-run and short-run relationship among the factors which form a global supply chain and their effects on a supply chain, using yearly data from 1984 to 2017. Our primary results from the estimations show that all the factors incorporated into the study are important for initiation and effective execution of a supply chain. The autoregressive distributed lag model shows that Index of Industrial Production (IIP), export–import ratio, KOF index and electricity index affect a supply chain positively whereas USD–INR exchange rate and unemployment rate affect gross value added negatively. The error correction model shows long-run relationship between IIP and export–import ratio. The study also highlights the importance of trade balance and industrial production in the long run.

scholarly journals Effects of Exchange Rate and Inflation Rate on Stock Market Returns Volatility in India.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nenavath Sre ◽  
Suresh Naik
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Abstract The paper investigates the effect of exchange and inflation rate on stock market returns in India. The study uses monthly, quarterly and annual inflation and exchange rate data obtained from the RBI and market returns computed from the Indian share market index from January, 2000 to June, 2020.The paper uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) co-integration technique and the error correction parametization of the ARDL model for investigating the effect on Indian Stock markets. The GARCH and its corresponding Error Correction Model (ECM) were used to explore the long- and short-run relationship between the India Stock market returns, inflation, and exchange rate. The paper shows that there exists a long term relationship but there is no short-run relationship between Indian market returns and inflation. But, there is periodicity of inflation monthly considerable long run and short-run relationship between them existed. The outcome also illustrates a significant short-run relationship between NSE market returns and exchange rate. The variables were tested for short run and it was significantly shown the positive effects on the stock market returns and making it a desirable attribute of which investors can take advantage of. This is due to the establishment of long-run effect of inflation and exchange rate on stock market returns.

scholarly journals Microfinance Institutions and Financial Sector Growth in Nigeria (1992-2018)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Abiodun Ayodeji ◽  
Adebayo Tunbosun Ogundipe
Keyword(s):  
Secondary Data ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Variable Coefficients ◽  
Model Specification ◽  
Microfinance Institutions ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Bound Test

Abstract The extent to which microfinance bank institutions have contributed to the financial sector growth has not been well unraveled in the extant literature in Nigeria, hence, this study examined the effects of microfinance banks on financial sector growth in Nigeria. It further investigated the dynamic form of relationship between microfinance banks and financial sector growth in Nigeria covering a temporal scope 1992 to 2018. The model specification was formulated using financial sector GDP as the proxy for dependent variable, microfinance credit, deposits, assets and investment were used as proxies for microfinance banks institutions. Secondary data were sourced from CBN statistical Bulletin and analyzed using auto regressive distributed lag bound test and its corresponding short and long run coefficients. Finding revealed an inconclusive long run relationship between microfinance bank institutions and financial sector growth. Checking the individual variable coefficients in the short run, microfinance credit has significant positive effect while microfinance assets has insignificant effects on financial sector growth. In the long run, it was revealed that microfinance bank deposits and assets exert insignificant positive effects while microfinance credits have insignificant effect and investments have significant negative effects on financial sector growth. The study concluded that, in the long run, microfinance bank institutions exert positive and insignificant effects on financial sector growth in Nigeria. It was therefore recommended that, for microfinance bank institutions to impact significantly on financial sector growth in Nigeria, its credit should be increased and be more directed to the target individuals and the level of their investments should be geared up so as to engender growth of the financial sector in Nigeria. Furthermore, microfinance bank institutions should maintain its status quo on deposits and assets, however, improvement on them should be encouraged so as to enhance the growth of the financial sector in Nigeria

Moderating Effects of Logistics Infrastructure Development and Real Sector Productivity: A Case of Pakistan

2019 ◽  
pp. 097215091987930 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noman Arshed ◽  
Muhammad Shahid Hassan ◽  
Muhammad Umair Khan ◽  
Arslan Arif Uppal
Keyword(s):  
Road Transport ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Moderating Effects ◽  
Sea Transport ◽  
Services Sector ◽  
The Road ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Auto Regressive

A well-oiled logistics sector physically moves the economy towards higher growth. A developed logistics infrastructure facilitates backward and forward linkages in global trade and manages the business cost of accessing markets. Logistics sector facilitates sectorwise growth in a way that it eases goods transmissions mechanisms. This study has assessed four indices of logistics which are road, rail, air and sea transport by forming indices using 13 indicators. Auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL)bound approach-based long-run results show that, for the case of Pakistan, development in the road transport has highest potential in growth productivity of agriculture and services sector, while sea transport performed best in industrial sector.

scholarly journals Input Demand and the Shortand Long-Run Employment Thresholds: An Empirical Analysis for the German Manufacturing Sector

2001 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 367-384 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gebhard Flaig ◽  
Horst Rottmann
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Structural Characteristic ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Demand System ◽  
The Public ◽  
Wage Rates ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Input Demand ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract The concept of the `employment threshold' plays an important role in the public discussion of unemployment. The employment threshold is defined as that growth rate of output necessary to keep employment constant despite the continuous rise in productivity. It is related to the Okun coefficient which describes the relationship between the changes in output and unemployment. Many contributions to this debate give the impression that the employment threshold is more or less a structural characteristic independent of economic variables. In this paper we derive short- and long-run employment thresholds from an input demand system and show empirically that they depend on factor prices and capital accumulation. Higher wage rates raise the employment threshold and reduce the probability that a positive output shock will increase employment.

scholarly journals Milk Supply Response in Delaware

1980 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Joachim Elterich ◽  
Sharif Masud
Keyword(s):  
Milk Production ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Milk Supply ◽  
Supply Response ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Milk Cows ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model

Milk supply response by dairy farmers in Delaware was analyzed employing distributed lag price structures for number of milk cows and milk production per cow. A polynominal distributed lag model is fitted to quarterly data with deflated prices for the period 1966 to 1978. The variations in the number of milk cows is explained by about 98 percent. Farmers react positively to milk prices after 1–2 years, while wages and feed prices have a negative impact on cow numbers. Milk production per cow shows positive adjustments to milk prices after 6 to 15 months. Technology and feed prices influence also milk production While the short-run price elasticity of milk production is only .2, the long-run aggregate elasticity grows to 2.8 percent. Intermediate-run projections of milk supply were also performed with the model.

scholarly journals Characterising deindustrialisation: An analysis of changes in manufacturing employment and output internationally

2008 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 433-466 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fiona Tregenna
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Decomposition Techniques ◽  
Total Employment ◽  
Manufacturing Employment ◽  
Labour Intensity ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Employment Share ◽  
Special Growth

Abstract Deindustrialisation is typically conceptualised as a decline in manufacturing as a share of total employment. From a Kaldorian perspective deindustrialisation could have negative implications for long-run growth, given the special growth-pulling properties of manufacturing. However, defining deindustrialisation purely in terms of employment share is conceptually limiting given that some of the Kaldorian processes operate primarily through output rather than employment, as well as blunting empirical analysis by not focussing enough on changes in manufacturing share of gross domestic product (GDP). This study develops a new method using decomposition techniques to analyse changes in manufacturing employment levels and shares in 48 countries over periods of ‘deindustrialisation’. The analysis separates out changes in the levels and shares of employment manufacturing into components associated with changes in the share of manufacturing in GDP, the growth of manufacturing value-added, the labour intensity of manufacturing production and economic growth. The results indicate that in most cases the decline in manufacturing employment is associated primarily with falling labour intensity of manufacturing rather than an overall decline in the size or share of the manufacturing sector. We suggest that deindustrialisation should appropriately be defined in terms of a sustained decline in both the share of manufacturing in total employment and the share of manufacturing in GDP.

The impact of Iran Central Bank’s sanction on Tehran Stock Exchange

2017 ◽  
Vol 59 (3) ◽  
pp. 365-375 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahdi Salehi ◽  
Mostafa Karimzadeh ◽  
Navid Paydarmanesh
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

Purpose US sanctions have been a major feature of US Iran policy since Iran’s 1979 Islamic revolution, but the imposition of UN and worldwide bilateral sanctions on Iran that began in 2006 and increased dramatically as of 2010 is recent by comparison. The objectives of US sanctions have evolved over time. Broad international sanctions imposed on Iran harmed Iran’s economy and contributed to Iran’s acceptance of agreements that exchange constraints on its nuclear program for sanctions relief. The subject of this study is important because both Iran and the international communities are demanding for information about the effect of sanctions on Iran. In an international and regional perspective, it seems that sanctions have a negative impact on economic, social and even political status of Iran. Therefore, this paper aims to examine the impact of Iran Central Bank sanction on Tehran Stock Exchange as on December 31, 2011. Design/methodology/approach Variables of model are consisted by exchange rate, oil prices and Tehran Stock Exchange Price Index (TEPIX) from October 2, 2011 to March 29, 2012, which is offered daily. To analyze the model, the authors used Johansen–Juselius and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methods. Findings The results indicate that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between selected variables as oil prices, and exchange rates have a positive effect on the TEPIX. In other words, the results of the econometric estimation show the positive effect of the Iran Central Bank sanction on the TEPIX. Thus, because of economic sanctions imposed by the Western countries, Tehran Stock Exchange has been growing. Originality/value No empirical research exists that examines the impact of sanctions on stock price in developing countries. This study fills this gap by examining the links between sanctions and stock price in Iran.

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