Impact of solar activity on forest fires in Arkhangelsk region

Analysis of information on forest fires in the Arkhangelsk region showed bursts of forest fires in the period 1959–1961, 1972–1973, 1997–2001 and 2010–2011. To establish the regularities of the solar activity influence (Wolf numbers) on forest fires, statistical studies were carried out. The distribution of Wolf numbers in terms of magnitude has a regular character and practically does not change over the months of the year. Correlation analysis about the statistical dependence of the factors was used to test the hypothesis. A certain interdependence between meteorological factors, of the local population life and the number of fires has been noted. An assessment of the interconnection degree between the area and number of forest fires and solar activity has been carried out. A weak relationship has been established between solar activity and the number of forest fires in the forest fund. It is recommended to use Wolf numbers to predict the degree of fire hazard only in conjunction with other factors.

Download Full-text

Empirical Research on Climate Warming Risks for Forest Fires: A Case Study of Grade I Forest Fire Danger Zone, Sichuan Province, China

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13147773 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (14) ◽

pp. 7773

Author(s):

San Wang ◽

Hongli Li ◽

Shukui Niu

Keyword(s):

Wind Speed ◽

Forest Fire ◽

Climate Warming ◽

Forest Fires ◽

Meteorological Factors ◽

Sichuan Province ◽

Danger Zone ◽

Climatic Regions ◽

Area Burned ◽

Forest Fire Danger

The Sichuan province is a key area for forest and grassland fire prevention in China. Forest resources contribute significantly not only to the biological gene pool in the mid latitudes but also in reducing the concentration of greenhouse gases and slowing down global warming. To study and forecast forest fire change trends in a grade I forest fire danger zone in the Sichuan province under climate change, the dynamic impacts of meteorological factors on forest fires in different climatic regions were explored and a model between them was established by using an integral regression in this study. The results showed that the dominant factor behind the area burned was wind speed in three climatic regions, particularly in Ganzi and A’ba with plateau climates. In Ganzi and A’ba, precipitation was mainly responsible for controlling the number of forest fires while it was mainly affected by temperature in Panzhihua and Liangshan with semi-humid subtropical mountain climates. Moreover, the synergistic effect of temperature, precipitation and wind speed was responsible in basin mid-subtropical humid climates with Chengdu as the center and the influence of temperature was slightly higher. The differential forest fire response to meteorological factors was observed in different climatic regions but there was some regularity. The influence of monthly precipitation in the autumn on the area burned in each climatic region was more significant than in other seasons, which verified the hypothesis of a precipitation lag effect. Climate warming and the combined impact of warming effects may lead to more frequent and severe fires.

Download Full-text

Research on Correlation Analysis of Power User Behavior Based on Coupled Meteorological Factors

10.1109/scems52239.2021.9646162 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Yixiao Li ◽

Tianguang Lv ◽

Xin Zhao ◽

Jiyan Liu ◽

Wenjie Ju ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Correlation Analysis ◽

User Behavior ◽

Meteorological Factors ◽

Behavior Based

Download Full-text

Correlation Analysis between Grounding Resistance and Diurnal Variations of Upper Soil Resistivity during March 2010 in Balozhi, Latvia

Scientific Journal of Riga Technical University Power and Electrical Engineering ◽

10.2478/v10144-010-0027-x ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 27 (1) ◽

pp. 88-91 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Marina Kizhlo ◽

Arvids Kanbergs ◽

Mihails Kizhlo

Keyword(s):

Correlation Analysis ◽

Meteorological Factors ◽

Soil Layer ◽

Considerable Effect ◽

Diurnal Variations ◽

Electrical Safety ◽

Soil Resistivity ◽

Grounding System ◽

Grounding Resistance ◽

Local Topography

Correlation Analysis between Grounding Resistance and Diurnal Variations of Upper Soil Resistivity during March 2010 in Balozhi, LatviaThe accurate measurement of soil resistivity and grounding system resistance is fundamental to electrical safety. However, geological and meteorological factors can have a considerable effect on the accuracy of conventional measurements and the validity of the measurement methods. This paper examines some aspects of grounding measurements and grounding system performance in the context of both geological and meteorological effects.We are reporting the results of grounding measurements using the 3-point method with ground resistivity tester type M416. The measurements were conducted during selected period from 2010 March 1 to March 31 in Balozhi, Latvia. We also noted that the resistivity of the upper layer significantly varied from a point to another, reflecting difference in water content in the upper soil layer due to local topography and other parameters.

Download Full-text

Evaluation of critical atmospheric patterns for the occurrence of forest fires in a climate change context in the northwest of Argentine Patagonia.

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-610 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Verónica Dankiewicz ◽

Matilde M. Rusticucci ◽

Soledad M. Collazo

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Forest Fires ◽

Fire Hazard ◽

Fire Danger ◽

Fire Season ◽

Historical Period ◽

Fire Weather Index ◽

Mitigation And Adaptation ◽

Argentine Patagonia ◽

In Fire

<p>Forest fires are a global phenomenon and result from complex interactions between weather and climate conditions, ignition sources, and humans. Understanding these relationships will contribute to the development of management strategies for their mitigation and adaptation. In the context of climate change, fire hazard conditions are expected to increase in many regions of the world due to projected changes in climate, which include an increase in temperatures and the occurrence of more intense droughts. In Argentina, northwestern Patagonia is an area very sensitive to these changes because of its climate, vegetation, the urbanizations highly exposed to fires, and the proximity of two of the largest and oldest National Parks in the country. The main objective of this work is to analyze the possible influence of climate change on some atmospheric patterns related to fire danger in northwestern Argentine Patagonia. The data were obtained from two CMIP5 global climate models CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 and GFDL-ESM2G and the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble, in the historical experiment and two representative concentration pathways: RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The data used in this study cover the region's fire season (FS), from September to April, and were divided into five periods of 20 years each, a historical period (1986-2005), which was compared with four future periods: near (2021-2040), medium (2041-2060), far (2061-2080) and very far (2081-2100). The statistical distribution of the monthly composite fields of the FS was studied for some of the main fire drivers: sea surface temperature in the region of the index EN3.4 (SST EN3.4), sea level pressure anomalies &#8203;&#8203;(SLP), surface air temperature anomalies (TAS), the Antarctic Oscillation Index (AOI) and monthly accumulated precipitation (PR). In addition, the partial correlation coefficient was calculated to determine the independent contribution of each atmospheric variable to the Fire Weather Index (FWI), used as a proxy for the mean FS danger. As a result, we observed that SST EN3.4 is the only one that could indicate a reduction in fire danger in the future, although no variable presented a significant contribution to the FWI with respect to the others. In the RCP8.5 scenario, greater fire danger is projected by the TAS, the PR, the SLP, and relative by the AOI, while in the RCP2.6 scenario, only the TAS shows influence leading to an increase, which would be offset by the opposite influence of SST EN3.4 for the same periods in this scenario. In conclusion, in RCP8.5 it could be assumed that there is a trend towards an increase in fire danger given the influence in this sense of most of the variables analyzed, but not in RCP2.6 where there would be no significant changes.</p>

Download Full-text

Correlation Analysis and Forecast of Power Demand Based on Economic and Meteorological Factors

Journal of Physics Conference Series ◽

10.1088/1742-6596/1650/3/032185 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 1650 ◽

pp. 032185

Author(s):

Junyi Yang ◽

Yi Ge ◽

Zhenjian Xie ◽

Junhui Huang ◽

Hu Li ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Correlation Analysis ◽

Meteorological Factors ◽

Power Demand

Download Full-text

Facing and managing natural disasters in the Sporades islands, Greece

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-14-995-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 14 (4) ◽

pp. 995-1005 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

P. Karanikola ◽

T. Panagopoulos ◽

S. Tampakis ◽

M. I. Karantoni ◽

G. Tsantopoulos

Keyword(s):

Natural Disasters ◽

Natural Disaster ◽

Forest Fires ◽

Local Population ◽

Civil Defense ◽

Natural Phenomena ◽

Public Response ◽

Central Greece ◽

Good Management ◽

Perceptions And Attitudes

Abstract. The region of the Sporades islands located in central Greece is at the mercy of many natural phenomena, such as earthquakes due to the marine volcano Psathoura and the rift of Anatolia, forest fires, floods, landslides, storms, hail, snowfall and frost. The present work aims at studying the perceptions and attitudes of the residents regarding how they face and manage natural disasters. A positive public response during a hazard crisis depends not only upon the availability and good management of a civil defense plan but also on the knowledge and perception of the possible hazards by the local population. It is important for the stakeholders to know what the citizens expect so that the necessary structures can be developed in the phase of preparation and organization. The residents were asked their opinion about what they think should be done by the stakeholders after a catastrophic natural disaster, particularly about the immediate response of stakeholders and their involvement and responsibilities at different, subsequent intervals of time following the disaster. The residents were also asked about the most common disasters that happen in their region and about the preparation activities of the stakeholders.

Download Full-text

Local identity and self-identity of residents of northern Russian cities of Arkhangelsk and Severodvinski

SHS Web of Conferences ◽

10.1051/shsconf/20185001045 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 50 ◽

pp. 01045

Author(s):

Natalia Drannikova ◽

Inga Zashihina

Keyword(s):

Population Survey ◽

Local Population ◽

Local Identity ◽

Self Identity ◽

Distinctive Features ◽

Arkhangelsk Region ◽

Speech Data ◽

Russian North

Local population survey based on specially developed questionnaire was held to study local identity of Arkhangelsk and Severodvinsk in the Arkhangelsk region (Russian North) from 2000 till 2015. Aquired folklore and speech data allow us to analyze Arkhangelsk and Severodvinsk citizens’ local identity distinctive features. The held research allows one to make a conclusion that the Arkhangelsk and Severodvinsk citizens have their own developed local identity, but with different specific characteristics. The local population has their own images of themselves and other people/neighbours. Arkhangelsk was founded as a traditional town, Severodvinsk – during country urbanization processes. Severodvinsk inhabitants have double or triple identification more often than Arkhangelsk citizens.

Download Full-text

Preference by Donkeys and Goats among Five Mediterranean Forest Species: Implications for Reducing Fire Hazard

Animals ◽

10.3390/ani10081302 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (8) ◽

pp. 1302

Author(s):

Jordi Bartolomé ◽

Jordi Miró ◽

Xavier Panadès ◽

Maria José Broncano ◽

Josefina Plaixats ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Forest Fires ◽

Pinus Halepensis ◽

Fire Hazard ◽

Mediterranean Forest ◽

Mediterranean Forests ◽

Forest Species ◽

Rubus Ulmifolius ◽

Key Species ◽

The Mediterranean ◽

Cafeteria Test

During the second half of the 20th century, European countries experienced an increase in their forest area due to the global change. Consequently, there has been an increase in large forest fires, mainly in the Mediterranean basin, and this has forced the development of several types of prevention programs. One of them is the control of the understory by livestock. In this sense, browsing with a combination of donkeys and goats could be a good option, as both animals usually feed on forest species. However, little is known about their preferences for the key species of the Mediterranean forest. Using a cafeteria test, the preferences and consumption of both animals have been determined for five typical species of the Mediterranean forest, such as Quercus ilex, Pinus halepensis, Phillyrea latifolia, Rubus ulmifolius, and Brachypodium retusum. Results showed that donkeys and goats could act complementarily in the reduction of the fuel biomass of forests. Donkeys appear to act more on fine fuel, such as B. retusum, and goats on the more pyrophyte species, in this case P. halepensis. In addition, given that donkeys are at severe risk of extinction in Europe, this role of providing ecosystem services could contribute to their conservation. Despite this study only showing that goats and donkeys would consume all five presented plant species and that there are some differences in consumption during a short-term test, it constitutes a useful first step for conservation and fire prevention in the Mediterranean forests.

Download Full-text

Assessing Landscape Fire Hazard by Multitemporal Automatic Classification of Landsat Time Series Using the Google Earth Engine in West-Central Spain

Forests ◽

10.3390/f10060518 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 10 (6) ◽

pp. 518 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Natalia Quintero ◽

Olga Viedma ◽

Itziar R. Urbieta ◽

José M. Moreno

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Forest Fires ◽

Fire Hazard ◽

Sustainable Use ◽

Google Earth ◽

Burned Area ◽

Change Metrics ◽

Google Earth Engine ◽

The Stability

Annual Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) maps are needed to identify the interaction between landscape changes and wildland fires. Objectives: In this work, we determined fire hazard changes in a representative Mediterranean landscape through the classification of annual LULC types and fire perimeters, using a dense Landsat Time Series (LTS) during the 1984–2017 period, and MODIS images. Methods: We implemented a semiautomatic process in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform to generate annual imagery free of clouds, cloud shadows, and gaps. We compared LandTrendr (LT) and FormaTrend (FT) algorithms that are widely used in LTS analysis to extract the pixel tendencies and, consequently, assess LULC changes and disturbances such as forest fires. These algorithms allowed us to generate the following change metrics: type, magnitude, direction, and duration of change, as well as the prechange spectral values. Results and conclusions: Our results showed that the FT algorithm was better than the LT algorithm at detecting low-severity changes caused by fires. Likewise, the use of the change metrics’ type, magnitude, and direction of change increased the accuracy of the LULC maps by 4% relative to the ones obtained using only spectral and topographic variables. The most significant hazardous LULC change processes observed were: deforestation and degradation (mainly by fires), encroachment (i.e., invasion by shrublands) due to agriculture abandonment and forest fires, and hazardous densification (from open forests and agroforestry areas). Although the total burned area has decreased significantly since 1985, the landscape fire hazard has increased since the second half of the twentieth century. Therefore, it is necessary to implement fire management plans focused on the sustainable use of shrublands and conifer forests; this is because the stability in these hazardous vegetation types is translated into increasing fuel loads, and thus an elevated landscape fire hazard.

Download Full-text

Identifying Forest Fire Driving Factors and Related Impacts in China Using Random Forest Algorithm

Forests ◽

10.3390/f11050507 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (5) ◽

pp. 507

Author(s):

Wenyuan Ma ◽

Zhongke Feng ◽

Zhuxin Cheng ◽

Shilin Chen ◽

Fengge Wang

Keyword(s):

Random Forest ◽

Forest Fire ◽

Forest Fires ◽

Fire Management ◽

Fire Hazard ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Driving Factors ◽

Socioeconomic Variables ◽

Forest Fire Management ◽

Geographical Regions

Reasonable forest fire management measures can effectively reduce the losses caused by forest fires and forest fire driving factors and their impacts are important aspects that should be considered in forest fire management. We used the random forest model and MODIS Global Fire Atlas dataset (2010~2016) to analyse the impacts of climate, topographic, vegetation and socioeconomic variables on forest fire occurrence in six geographical regions in China. The results show clear regional differences in the forest fire driving factors and their impacts in China. Climate variables are the forest fire driving factors in all regions of China, vegetation variable is the forest fire driving factor in all other regions except the Northwest region and topographic variables and socioeconomic variables are only the driving factors of forest fires in a few regions (Northwest and Southwest regions). The model predictive capability is good: the AUC values are between 0.830 and 0.975, and the prediction accuracy is between 70.0% and 91.4%. High fire hazard areas are concentrated in the Northeast region, Southwest region and East China region. This research will aid in providing a national-scale understanding of forest fire driving factors and fire hazard distribution in China and help policymakers to design fire management strategies to reduce potential fire hazards.

Download Full-text